I happened to have stumbled upon this lost treasure of international history and diplomacy which I wish to share with you guys.

Naturally, this topic would have been appropriately opened on the Political Section (since this section is hardly visited) but for that assh0le sexkillz, my posting rights on the latter section has been temporarily suspended.

So here is the link for the full text of John Glubbs: The Fate of Empires.

https://d1e0u2actw4eb3.cloudfront.net/edu/src/glubb.pdf

The book basically is a comparative analysis of the rise and eventual decline of historical Empires, their average lifespan and the various epochs representing and coincidental to every stage of the Empire's existence from rise to fall.

John Glubb was able to draw striking similarities of past World Powers such as the average lifespan (approximately 250 years or Ten generations; given that every generation last for 25 years).

Glubb was also able to identify several epochs leading to the rise, climax and eventual decline of historical empires.

These according to him are:

The Age of Pioneers

This period is marked by the protagonist generation preparing the foundations of the new empire. This pioneering generation are considered as hardworking, daring innovative and ambitious. This generation were also the underdogs who were never considered by the then pre-existing world power as relevant in the scheme of affairs. The pioneering American immigrants were looked down upon by the British, the Arabs were relegated as backward by the Persians and Romans until the advent of a unifying religion in the form of Islam.

The Age of Conquest

According to Glubb, Conquest may or may not be Military in definition alone. The Islamic Caliphate grew by Military conquest so also was the case of the Mongols. The Roman conquest was a combination of both Military and high level diplomacy borrowed from the Greek model. The British Empire relied on commerce alongside Military expeditions while that of the United States was a conquest of a whole continent by a few brave and hardy immigrants.

The Age of Commerce

Closely following the Age of Conquest is that of Commerce. The advantages of a large extensive land mass territory opens up any new Nation to natural resources locate there within and also allows for a large economic bloc. The splinter societies and realms that existed prior to the expansion of the Roman Empire were open to a larger market with little or no trade barriers. The Roman empire stretching from Syria to Britain was much an economic bloc.

The Age of Intellect

With a booming economy , competition is natural to follow and as such technological innovations and development begin to take shape.
This is age also sees more technology transfer to the Military thereby consolidating power for the central administrative body of the Empire.

The Age of Affluence

This age marks the period of an improved standard of living for citizens within the realm of the Empire. Unfortunately, this leads to a widening gap between the rich and the poor. An elitist society then emerges within the Empire which so happens to control vast resources of the empire.

The Age of Decadence
The last and final stage of all Empires is marked by a lowering of moral virtues and principles usually championed by the super affluent group and the middle-class. Their show of wealth and conspicuous consumption lifestyles will natural lead to an uprising by the poorer sections of society to revolt.
It is pertinent to state that most Empires are destroyed from within. A sort of implosion occurs usually instigated by the less privileged members of that society.
The last stage of the empire are usually marked by the following social upheavals:
Society moral standards are greatly lowered
A large and undisciplined Army
Glorification of celebrities
Economic meltdown brought about by a devaluation of the currency.

The hallmarks of the above were seen in the declining phase of the Roman Empire. The Military was large undisciplined and fragmented, the Roman elites were more interested in attending sex 0rgies and gladiator games where gladiator fighters were paid vast sums of money. The last days of roman also saw economic meltdown since the ruling elites spent so much of the Empires resources maintaining a huge standing army coupled with investments in public infrastructure such as temples, coliseums, etc. The Roman denarii was originally based on Silver but with years of inflation, the coins were reduced to mere silver coated copper coins which had the silver wear out within days of minting.

The United States is clearly in her declining phase and China seems to have leaped-frogged into the affluent stage.

Today in the U.S. pornography is a natural past time, sex sells and Americans seem upset with it. Corruption is also very high among U.S. politicians these days.
Also the U.S.army seems to be under no-ones control and more likely to dictate to the occupant of the white house than the latter exerting his/her constitutional authority.
Kim Kardashian, Kanye West, Kobe Bryant, Brad Pit, etc. It doesn't matter, Americans seem to worship their celebrities.
MTV cribs and the bling lifestyle also portrays the current American society as a highly conspicuous consumer society far from the hard working austere society that gave rise to this world power.
The economic recession and eventual devaluation of the U.S. dollar are also pointers of an Empire in decline.

The military is still united and highly disciplined. They lost the way a bit while fighting two major wars, but now that that is over, they have been trimming out the unfit. As long as the military has the power to back the dollar, I think things could roll on for a while.

Celebrity worship is nowhere near as bad as you think either. The news media has just gotten much bigger and is able to sell "popular opinion" that really isnt popular.

If anything, the US is likely nearing the end of the age of affluence. As industries shift elsewhere, innovation and skilled labor will follow in time, bringing that affluence to an end.