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U.S. Dollar Supported as NZD/USD Double Bottom Shows Ahead of RBNZ.

The quiet week in the FX market continues as the U.S. Dollar holds on to recent gains. One of the few items of excitement on this week’s docket is released later today when the RBNZ hosts a rate decision. But there are scant expectations for any moves as the surrounding context is dizzying in nature. This is going to be the first full monetary policy statement from interim RBNZ Govenror, Grant Spencer. But this also comes at a time when the RBNZ’s focus is being debated, as modifications to the Reserve Bank Act may see employment added as a mandate.

Suffice it to say, we probably won’t see any rate adjustments at this afternoon’s outlay. The one change that we may see is a modification to the bank’s inflation target; but even that brings questions as to how much that may push rate expectations after Graeme Wheeler’s final press conference in August saw the bank share the expectation that rates would stay at current levels until at least September of 2019.

NZD/USD is continuing to recover from the election-fueled losses that saw the pair test the 2017 low just two weeks ago. This shows a double-bottom, and if we can see a down-side break below that point of support, the door can be opened for short-side positions as NZD/USD moves down to fresh yearly lows.

NZD/USD Daily: Double-Bottom with Near-Term Resistance Showing Around Prior Support.

The U.S. Dollar

Against most currencies, the U.S. Dollar remains persistently bullish. In DXY, the Dollar is holding on to recent gains after the ECB-inspired breakout. Last week saw buyers show-up to offer higher-low support above prior resistance; but we’ve now had over a week of resistance show around the 95.00 level. Given the quiet calendar for the remainder of the week, this may be pointing to a deeper retracement in this move before the longer-term bullish trend is ready to continue. This could mean a retest of support at the prior zone of resistance that held the highs in DXY for the better part of the past three months. This zone runs from 94.08-94.30 and has yet to be tested as support after the bullish breakout.

EUR/USD

The Euro continues to tip-toe lower after the bearish breakout of two weeks ago. Friday’s NFP report brought upon a resistance test of prior support around a key zone in the pair and, at this point, it appears as though we have a lower-high to couple with EUR/USD’s recent lower-low. This can keep the door opened for short-side continuation in the pair, with targets cast towards 1.1500, 1.1423, 1.1296 and then 1.1216.

EUR/USD Daily: Bearish Price Action Highlights Deeper Retracement Potential.


One area that hasn’t seen strength in the U.S. Dollar over the past 24 hours has been USD/JPY. In yesterday’s article, we pointed out this zone of resistance that’s held the highs in the pair for the past six months, and this is also showing as price action tests the top-end of a longer-term symmetrical wedge pattern. This resistance appears to be coming from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement June-December 2016 bullish move. But, while the Dollar has remained relatively strong elsewhere, we’ve seen a bit of Yen strength begin to show.

GBP/USD flirting with lows, around 1.3120 level

The GBP/USD pair failed to build on overnight rebound and is currently retesting the 1.3120-15 immediate support area.

Currently trading around 1.3125-30 region, the pair once again met with some fresh supply near the 1.3175-80 region and failed to benefit from a mildly softer tone around the US Dollar.

Renewed concerns over the long-awaited US tax reform bill kept the USD on the back-foot but did little to provide any fresh bullish impetus to the major.

Moreover, traders turned cautious and seemed inclined to lighten their bullish bets as EU diplomats start the discussion over a Brexit transition terms, expected to be outlined later today.

The pair's down slide through the mid-European session could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, led by a sharp rebound witnessed around the EUR/GBP cross.

In the absence of any relevant macroeconomic data, investors would remain focused on any fresh Brexit news and progress over the US tax bill.

• GBP/USD attention remains on 1.3050 – Commerzbank
Technical levels to watch
A follow-through selling pressure could drag the pair back towards the 1.3100 handle, which if broken could extend the downslide towards retesting 1.3040 support area. On the upside, momentum above 1.3175-80 hurdle might now lift the pair beyond the 1.3200 handle towards testing the key 1.3225-30 supply zone, also nearing 50-day SMA.

Re: New Makeup Photo Of Funke Akindele by NwaAmaikpe: 11:48am
shocked

Makeup really makes this ugly lady look pretty.

Unfortunately, she can't use makeup on her horrible attitude.
And that's what matters most because I am not a sucker for superficial beauty.

The Igbos have a wise saying, "Agwa bu nma"
Character is the real beauty.

Always think b4 u give out comments

EUR/USD drops to fresh 4-month lows near 1.1560

The increasing demand for the greenback is now forcing EUR/USDto drop to the area of multi-month lows in the 1.1565/60 band.

EUR/USD in multi-day lows

Spot gathered extra downside pressure on Tuesday following a persistent rebound in the demand for the US Dollar, which lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to regain the 95.00 handle and above.

In addition, yields of the US 10-year benchmark are extending the rebound from recent lows in the sub-2.31% area, gaining around 2 bps so far and widening the spread vs. their German peers.

President M.Draghi made opening remarks at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, noting that negative rates are undermining bank profitability, although he did not mention monetary policy.

In the meantime, the pair is prolonging the recent breakdown of the ‘neckline’ in the 1.1660/70 band following the ECB meeting in late October, always on the back of renewed and strong pick up in the demand for the buck.
In the data space, EMU’s retail sales for the month of September are due along with speeches by ECB’s V.Constancio, S.Lautenschlager, I.Angeloni and D.Nouy. Across the pond, the IBD/TIPP index is due seconded by JOLTs job openings and the speech by Chief J.Yellen.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is down 0.32% at 1.1571 facing the next support at 1.1566 (low Nov.7) seconded by 1.1448 (high Jun.30) and finally 1.1276 (200-day sma). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1647 (10-day sma) would open the door to 1.1692 (high Nov.3) and then 1.1728 (21-day sma). Furthermore, FXStreet’s Technical Confluences Indicator (TCI) is noting an important resistance zone around 1.1630, where converge the 5-day sma, a pivot point and a Fibo retracement.

Source: FXStreet.

At the end of October the government was able to sell €2.5 billion of 10-year debt at auction at a yield of 1.86%, the lowest since last December — an incredible feat for a country that four months ago witnessed a major bank bailout and two bank resolutions, and that has so much public debt that it spends €70 billion a year to service it, the world’s third-highest.

And there’s the ECB’s recent decision to slash its bond buying from roughly €60 billion a month to €30 billion as of Jan 1, 2018. Then there’s the over €432 billion of Target 2 debt the government owes the ECB, the growing likelihood of political instability as elections approach in 2018, the recent referendums for greater fiscal and political autonomy in Lombardy and Veneto and serious unresolved issues in the banking sector.

It’s not just businesses and investors that are losing faith in Italy’s financial sector; so too is the public. Just 16% of Italians still have confidence in the country’s lenders, according to a poll by the SWG research group of Trieste on Friday. Trust in the Bank of Italy is also in decline, having plunged from 36% in June to 24% in October. Such widespread public mistrust didn’t stop the national central bank from awarding the bank’s governor, Ignazio Visco, another six-year term after presiding over the worst banking crisis of a generation.

The Bank of Italy’s reputation was further dented this month after documents presented in a Milan court case revealed that Italy’s central bank knew that MPS’ management had papered over a loss of almost $500 million in 2010 and failed to report it. At the time the governor of the Bank of Italy was Mario Draghi. Now, as chairman of the ECB, Draghi is in charge of withdrawing the QE monetary punch bowl upon which many peripheral EU economies have grown dependent to keep servicing their debts.

Saddled with one of the biggest public debt mountains on the planet, Italy is particularly vulnerable to this change in policy. Even after three years of QE, Italy’s economy is growing at a rate of 1.5% a year — good for Italy, but still the worst in Europe. Once the the ECB stops snapping up Italian debt over the coming years, the southern European nation will almost certainly struggle to find buyers for its government bonds.

The ECB has purchased €300 billion ($353 billion) of Italian bonds under its QE program, which is more than three times the net bond issuance for the country during that period, according to Christian Schulz, European economist at Citigroup. That means the ECB has not only bought pretty much all new bonds issued in Italy since 2015, but also existing bonds from other investors. As the ECB cuts its purchases by roughly half in two months’ time, those investors, including foreigners, Italian households and Italian retail investors, will have to come back into the market in a big way; otherwise the yields on Italian bonds will begin soaring, driving up the costs of funding for the government.

Once the ECB stops buying Italian bonds altogether, the only way for the game to continue is — according to research by Alleston Capital — if over the following six years non-banks increase their purchase activity up to seven times that of the past nine years. But these are the very investors who, via QE, were eager to offload the risks of Italian liabilities onto the Bank of Italy, and then onto the Eurosystem.

It’s a long shot, to put it mildly.

Source: Wolf Street

Financial Storm Clouds Gather Over Italy

At the end of October the government was able to sell €2.5 billion of 10-year debt at auction at a yield of 1.86%, the lowest since last December — an incredible feat for a country that four months ago witnessed a major bank bailout and two bank resolutions, and that has so much public debt that it spends €70 billion a year to service it, the world’s third-highest.

And there’s the ECB’s recent decision to slash its bond buying from roughly €60 billion a month to €30 billion as of Jan 1, 2018. Then there’s the over €432 billion of Target 2 debt the government owes the ECB, the growing likelihood of political instability as elections approach in 2018, the recent referendums for greater fiscal and political autonomy in Lombardy and Veneto and serious unresolved issues in the banking sector.

It’s not just businesses and investors that are losing faith in Italy’s financial sector; so too is the public. Just 16% of Italians still have confidence in the country’s lenders, according to a poll by the SWG research group of Trieste on Friday. Trust in the Bank of Italy is also in decline, having plunged from 36% in June to 24% in October. Such widespread public mistrust didn’t stop the national central bank from awarding the bank’s governor, Ignazio Visco, another six-year term after presiding over the worst banking crisis of a generation.

The Bank of Italy’s reputation was further dented this month after documents presented in a Milan court case revealed that Italy’s central bank knew that MPS’ management had papered over a loss of almost $500 million in 2010 and failed to report it. At the time the governor of the Bank of Italy was Mario Draghi. Now, as chairman of the ECB, Draghi is in charge of withdrawing the QE monetary punch bowl upon which many peripheral EU economies have grown dependent to keep servicing their debts.

Saddled with one of the biggest public debt mountains on the planet, Italy is particularly vulnerable to this change in policy. Even after three years of QE, Italy’s economy is growing at a rate of 1.5% a year — good for Italy, but still the worst in Europe. Once the the ECB stops snapping up Italian debt over the coming years, the southern European nation will almost certainly struggle to find buyers for its government bonds.

The ECB has purchased €300 billion ($353 billion) of Italian bonds under its QE program, which is more than three times the net bond issuance for the country during that period, according to Christian Schulz, European economist at Citigroup. That means the ECB has not only bought pretty much all new bonds issued in Italy since 2015, but also existing bonds from other investors. As the ECB cuts its purchases by roughly half in two months’ time, those investors, including foreigners, Italian households and Italian retail investors, will have to come back into the market in a big way; otherwise the yields on Italian bonds will begin soaring, driving up the costs of funding for the government.

Once the ECB stops buying Italian bonds altogether, the only way for the game to continue is — according to research by Alleston Capital — if over the following six years non-banks increase their purchase activity up to seven times that of the past nine years. But these are the very investors who, via QE, were eager to offload the risks of Italian liabilities onto the Bank of Italy, and then onto the Eurosystem.

It’s a long shot, to put it mildly.

Source: Wolf Street

[b]Zimbabwe goes back to trade by barter; livestock now use as money and collateral for loans

The cash-strapped Zimbabwe has turned to use of livestock as money and collateral to secure loans in the country.
Zimbabwean government in April 2017 hinted that it is considering making livestock as legal tender. This is due to mounting hyper-inflation and worsening economic conditions.
However, many private businesses and microfinance institutions have led the way in instituting this form of exchange in the country.
Lion Finance Zimbabwe and VIRL Rural and Social Finance Services now accept livestock as surety for loans given to young entrepreneurs and startups. Also, The Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe has also adopted the initiative.
Virgina Sibanda, the founder of VIRL Rural and Social Financial Services said the institution is comfortable with livestock as collateral for loans, especially cattle.
“We interrogate borrowers to gain a sense of their projected future earnings, and we want security cover at 1,5 times. We look at entrepreneurs and their ability to repay the loan,” Sibanda said.
“Our ceiling for loans is US$15 000 but we rarely grant an amount that high, unless the business owner is fully established. The average grant is US$500.”
She, however, noted that the final decision of issuance of loans is on the viability of the subject projects.
“Right now we take a photograph of the livestock record book and ask for confirmation from tribal elders to determine ownership of the cattle.”

In the Southern Africa countries, worsening economic situation has made many to consider livestock to be similar in value to assets such as houses in urban settings.
In Zimbabwe, there is currently a growing enthusiasm for acceptance of livestock for business transactions. This seems to be the only option for the country, and it has been noted as an African way of solving difficult problems.
According to local press in Zimbabwe, the country’s Minister of Primary and Secondary Education, Dr Lazarus Dokora had also said parents who cannot raise tuition fees for their children can offer their livestock as payment.[/b]

19 YEARS KE ABI 91 YEARS

Dollar Drops as Powell Set for Fed Nod; Bonds Slip: Markets Wrap

The dollar declined and Treasury yields steadied as investors digested news that President Donald Trump is poised to name Jerome Powell to lead the Federal Reserve. European stocks drifted, the euro rose and bonds in the region nudged lower.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed even as data showed euro-area manufacturing is expanding at one of the fastest rates since the start of the millennium. Real estate stocks and banks outperformed and travel and technology shares lagged. Asian stocks were mixed as a rally that drove prices to the highest level in 10 years showed signs of tiring. Sterling slipped ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting, where policy makers are expected to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. Oil erased a loss to trade above $54 a barrel. Industrial metals pared some of yesterday’s rally.

Trump will nominate Fed Governor Powell to the top job at the U.S. central bank on Thursday at 3 p.m. Washington time, according to four people familiar with the decision. Powell is seen by investors as a continuity candidate and has generally backed current chair Janet Yellen’s cautious approach to withdrawing stimulus. The succession question overshadowed the Fed’s policy statement Wednesday, where it subtly upgraded its assessment of the economy and reinforced expectations of a December interest-rate hike.
The progress toward American tax reform is also on most investors’ radars, alongside corporate earnings and Friday’s U.S. jobs report. There have been conflicting reports about when and how the U.S. tax rate on companies would be lowered. House Republican leaders plan to unveil a bill Thursday that would cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent -- though it may not stay there.
Elsewhere, bitcoin extended gains for the fourth consecutive day, hitting $7,000 to establish a fresh record.
Terminal users can read more in our Markets Live blog.
Here are some of the remaining scheduled events this week:
• Trump starts an 11-day trip to Asia, his first as president, on Friday. Trade and security issues -- particularly North Korea -- will probably be in focus.
• The slew of earnings releases will culminate with Apple Inc. results.
And these are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
• The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.1 percent as of 10:23 a.m. London time.
• The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index climbed 0.1 percent.
• Germany’s DAX Index fell 0.2 percent.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.5 percent to the highest in more than 21 years.
• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 0.2 percent to the highest in about 10 years.
• The MSCI Emerging Market Index increased less than 0.05 percent to the highest in more than two weeks.
• Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.1 percent.

Currencies
• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index decreased 0.2 percent.
• The euro climbed 0.2 percent to $1.1644.
• The British pound dipped 0.1 percent to $1.3236.
• The Japanese yen gained 0.1 percent to 114.09 per dollar.


Bonds
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased less than one basis point to 2.38 percent.
• Germany’s 10-year yield rose two basis points to 0.39 percent, the highest in a week.
• Britain’s 10-year yield climbed two basis points to 1.363 percent, the highest in a week.
• Japan’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.055 percent, the lowest in four weeks.

Commodities
• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1 percent to $54.36 a barrel.
• Gold increased 0.1 percent to $1,276.01 an ounce.
• Copper fell 0.7 percent to $3.12 a pound.

Source: Bloomberg.

God will bring her home soon,if she doesn't know her way God will pave way for her.

Dollar Gains at Month-End as Traders Await BOE, Next Fed Chair

The dollar gained at month-end despite portfolio rebalancing that was expected to result in greenback selling, as markets awaited the start of central bank meetings and the nomination of the next Fed chair.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced less than 0.1 percent as the greenback gained versus most of its G-10 peers, with the pound strongly outperforming. Sterling has risen this week before a Bank of England meeting, where investors widely expect the first rate increase in a decade. The biggest losers of the day were the Canadian and New Zealand dollars and the yen; some rebalancing models had anticipated dollar-yen demand.

• The dollar pared gains and traded little changed just ahead of the London fixing at midday New York time; the greenback then rebounded as USD/JPY rose the most in a week to a session high. The Bloomberg dollar index was on track for a monthly gain of 1.7%, its best performance since November, and gained for a second consecutive month for the first time this year
• The Fed began its two-day meeting in Washington; rates are widely seen staying unchanged and investors appear more focused on the nomination of the next Fed chair, which is expected on Thursday
o There is unlikely to be much of a reaction by Treasuries if the appointment goes to current chair Yellen or Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is seen as a continuation candidate, Pimco’s Richard Clarida said in an interview with Bloomberg Television
• GBP/USD rose to a high for the day at 1.3289 and continued to trade nearby as investors prepared for a BOE policy meeting Thursday, with markets pricing in more than 80% odds for a rate hike. Traders are waiting to see whether the BOE will adopt a “one and done” approach or whether Governor Carney will signal a possible need for future hikes, a step that could send sterling higher. Uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations favors a single hike, one trader in London said
• Traders also continue to monitor the outlook for U.S. tax reform, with House bill writers expected to release a proposal Wednesday; President Trump said corporate tax cuts will “hopefully not” be phased in
• USD/JPY set a fresh daily high at 113.73 amid fixing demand and remained near the level later in the session. The pair rebounded from an overnight drop to 112.96 that flushed out more USD longs, traders in Asia said. The BOJ kept rates and policies on hold while lowering its inflation forecasts, underscoring its divergence from G-10 peers
• EUR/USD was trading around 1.1654 after earlier rising as high as 1.1661. EUR gains proved attractive to some proprietary accounts keen to add USD longs ahead of a new month, a London trader said. EUR wasn’t moved much by data that showed the euro area economy expanded 0.6% q/q in 3Q, above estimates for a gain of 0.5%. Inflation continued to lag, with CPI rising 1.4% y/y vs est. 1.5%, underscoring the ECB’s decision last week to extend QE into 2018
• The Canadian dollar led declines in G-10 after Canada August GDP contracted by 0.1 percent vs expectations for a gain of that magnitude, suggesting a more extreme-than-expected slowing of the economy from a torrid 2Q pace. The loonie fell more than 3% against the greenback during October
o The data “justifies the BOC’s current wait-and-see approach after two quick hikes,” CIBC economist Nick Exarhos wrote in a client note
• USD saw little impact from data that showed the U.S. 3Q employment cost index rose 0.7%, in line with estimates and faster than the prior 0.5%. Other October U.S. data showed a stronger-than-expected gain in consumer confidence and a rise in the MNI-Chicago report vs expectations for a drop
• Some information comes from foreign exchange traders familiar with the transactions who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly

She can't be 18 at all she looks 35

The Dollar's Enjoying a Renaissance.
The greenback could keep pushing higher if U.S. tax cuts happen.

After getting pummeled all year by the euro, the dollar is having a moment. In Wall Street parlance, it may be more than just a dead-cat bounce, as politics, economic fundamentals and technicals have converged to give the greenback a boost.
The U.S. currency surged in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump's election victory before suffering a long descent that lasted from December until last month. That's when the political viability of U.S. fiscal policy reform in the shape of -- as yet to be detailed -- tax cuts (and maybe even tax reform) became increasingly likely. Although equity markets have reflected optimism all year that tax cuts would come, the dollar has conveyed doubt along with gold and bonds.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index is up more than 4 percent from its low for the year on Sept. 8, partially rebounding from the more than 10 percent drop since the end of December. There could be more to come in the short term if tax cuts happen, because the legislation is likely to contain a provision that would allow U.S. companies to repatriate significant foreign profits and further bolster the economy. That could spark more inflation and put U.S. monetary policy on a more aggressive path.

In terms of the euro, the political situation in Europe has been a distraction. After the election of the far-right Alternative for Germany party to the Bundestag on Sept. 24, the independence movement in the Spanish autonomous region of Catalonia has devolved into a political rat’s nest. Uncertainty, regionalism and the risk of escalating discord in Spain are adding to the political dissonance -- a stark contrast to the apparent acceptance of U.S. Senate Republicans of higher national debt levels in exchange for tax cuts.
As the dollar-bullish and euro-bearish political dynamics played out, monetary policy expectations have provided a more direct leitmotiv to currency moves. Although expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes dimmed throughout the year, solid U.S. economic growth and a tight labor market will allow the central bank to continue to tighten policy, despite low rates of inflation. Note that the Fed announced the normalization of its balance-sheet policy at its September meeting -- a time that roughly coincided with this year’s lows for the dollar against the euro, and the beginning of political concerns in Europe as well as political optimism in the U.S.
The ECB didn't do the euro any favors last week by announcing an extension of its quantitative-easing program. Although monthly bond purchases were cut in half, there is no target end date. The ECB failed miserably at removing monetary accommodation between 2012 and 2014, when a one-third reduction in the size of its balance sheet pushed the euro zone to the edge of recession. But that lesson seems to have been learned, and the ECB is taking a page from the Fed’s playbook: Reduce the pace of accommodation gradually and test the waters, then remove it entirely and test the waters again before tightening monetary policy.
Although the prospect of endless QE could keep the euro under pressure for longer, it's likely to pop once expectations for an eventual tightening rise. With euro zone CPI at only 1.5 percent, the inflation-sensitive ECB has some wiggle room, but not a lot. That makes the CPI the data point to watch. The euro is under pressure on all sides: The political story is bearish for the euro, as are U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy, and ECB monetary policy -- for now.
Technicals have also shifted against the euro in the past month and could continue to weigh on the currency in the immediate term as it has fallen below both its 30- and 100-day moving averages. Stochastic, Relative Strength Index, and On Balance Volume indicators are all flashing bearish signals. But these are minor compared with the fact that the euro is near a critical level of 1.1607 that served as a ceiling from January 2015 to July 2017, when the euro rose above that level. If the euro closes back below that support, it could weaken further in the immediate term. After all, a level of resistance that held for two and a half years is not one markets are likely to ignore.
The U.S. Dollar Index has seen technical dynamics strengthen, having risen above its 30- and 100-day moving averages. Plus, the dollar is back above a floor that held from January 2015 until August 2017, when it fell below that floor for around a month. This bounce back above an important technical support means that either a sharp acceleration in euro zone inflation or the failure of U.S. tax cuts would likely be required to upend the recent trends in the euro-dollar exchange rate -- at least in the near term.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Major Trend Reversal Hinted Ahead

Talking Points:
• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.1640
• Euro completes large Head and Shoulders topping chart formation
• Short position aims for a challenge of Fib support above 1.14 figure

The Euro looks to have completed a large Head and Shoulders topping batter, hinting a move below the 1.14 figure against the US Dollar is now ahead. The pattern’s neckline was breached after the ECB monetary policy announcement struck an unmistakably dovish tone, as expected.
The next layer of major support comes in at 1.1423, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1.1216. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 1.1679 opens the door for a retest of support-turned-resistance at 1.1749.
A short EUR/USD position was activated at 1.1640, initially targeting 1.1423. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.1749. Profit on half of open exposure will be booked and the stop-loss moved to the breakeven level when (and if) the first objective is met.
What are the fundamental forces driving EUR/USD through year-end? See our forecast here!

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EUR/USD SURRENDERS EARLY GAINS TO WEEKLY TOPS, ECB MEETING IN FOCUS.

• Retreats from weekly tops as USD recovers.
• ECB monetary policy decision remains in focus.
• Draghi's speech to drive Euro in the near-term.

The EUR/USD pair surrendered majority of its early gains to weekly tops, near the 1.1840 region and has now moved on the verge of breaking into negative territory.
The pair's retracement since early European session has been primarily driven by a modest US Dollar rebound, supported by a pull-back in the US Treasury bond yields. Speculations that the next Fed Chair could be more hawkish continued limiting any deeper USD retracement and kept a lid on the pair's up-move.
Heading into the key event risk - ECB monetary policy decision, some repositioning trade might have also collaborated to the pair's slide back closer to the lower end of the daily trading range, around the 1.1815-10 band.

• EUR/USD attention to the 1.1858/1.1910 band – Commerzbank

Meanwhile, today's release of German Gfk consumer climate and Spanish employment data passes unnoticed as investors' focus remains glued to the outcome of highly anticipated ECB meeting.
The ECB is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 1145 GMT. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold but is anticipated to announce tapering of its €60 billion monthly bond purchase program.
Investors would also scrutinize the ECB President Mario Draghi's speech, during the post-meeting press conference in order to determine the shared currency's next leg of directional move.

• ECB preview: Dovish tapering? - ING

Technical levels to watch
Immediate support is pegged near the 1.1800 handle and is closely followed by support near 1.1785 level. Break below the mentioned supports might turn the pair vulnerable to break below the 1.1700 handle and head towards testing 100-day SMA support near the 1.1675-70 region.
On the flip side, any meaningful upside is likely to confront strong resistance at 50-day SMA, near mid-1.1800s, which if conquered might trigger a short-covering rally back towards the 1.1900 handle en-route its next major hurdle near the 1.1940-50 region.

USD/JPY moves higher to the 113.70 area, session tops.

• Abe’s win and steady BoJ leaves JPY vulnerable
• As usual, US yields are main drivers of spot
• Room for extra gains on BoJ-Fed policy divergence
• Risks to the upside appear from NK-related headlines
The Japanese Yen is trading on the defensive vs. the greenback on Tuesday, motivating USD/JPY to revert part of yesterday’s pullback and regain the upper end of the 113.00s.
USD/JPY upside capped just above 114.00
In spite of Monday’s retracement, the upside momentum seems unchanged around the pair, always tracking the performance of yields of the US-10 year reference, which have tested once again the vicinity of the critical 2.40% handle earlier in the session.
In the meantime, and following PM S.Abe’s win at the elections on Sunday, the Japanese safe haven appears offered against the backdrop of a ‘lower-for-longer’ monetary stance from the Bank of Japan.
In this regard, prospects of extra tightening by the Federal Reserve vs. the mega-easing stance from the Bank of Japan seem to pave the way for further upside in spot. However, a pick up in the risk aversion sentiment led by potential developments in the Korean Peninsula should lend oxygen to the safe haven JPY and thus plot against occasional up ticks.
On the data front, Japanese key inflation figures are due on Friday, whereas US flash manufacturing/services PMIs are expected later today followed by September s durable goods orders on Wednesday.
USD/JPY levels to consider
As of writing the pair is gaining 0.21% at 113.68 and a break above 114.07 (high Oct.23) would open the door to 114.39 (high May 11) and finally 114.51 (high Jul.11). On the other hand, the immediate support is located at 113.25 (low Oct.23) seconded by 112.71 (10-day sma) and then 112.48 (23.6% Fibo of 107.33-114.07). According to FXStreet’s technical confluence indicator (TCI), relevant support is located in the 113.00 neighbourhood, where is located the 5-day sma.

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Setting Realistic Goals


We’ve all been told that we should set goals, and we assume that we can set realistic goals- but most of us have never been taught how to go about setting goals effectively so that they are realistic and achievable. I think a large part of why 25% of New Year resolutions are broken in the first week is due to the fact that they aren’t realistic goals, without something to shoot towards; it’s quite easy to get discouraged and give up quickly.

Don’t Aim Too High
To begin with, one must refrain from setting goals too high, out of the realm of goals which are realistically achievable in a specific amount of time, you cannot expect to trade successfully without learning the tricks of the trade first, recognize the value of proper preparation. This can be done by aligning your personal goals and disposition with the instruments and markets you can comfortably relate to. Break down long term goals into shorter, more achievable goals, you will end up more focused as well as better motivated than before.

Don’t Make Trading Your Profession Earlier on
Don’t aim to make a living right away, if you’re fresh out of school or still studying don’t only rely on trading to get you by, you will need a proper job to begin, so in the unfortunate event that you do go into loss, you can still manage to feed yourself and clothe yourself. The key is to understand that there is no such thing as only profitable trades and that no system will trigger a 100% sure thing and that losses are to be taken quickly and often, if necessary.

Don’t be in the Market 24/7
Another realistically important goal to possess is to stay out of the market as much as possible and to only trade those trade setups that look promising and that might yield high probability results. The best way of doing this is to think of forex trading as a marathon rather than a jog where you have to trade sensibly and with caution and you will find it is possible to seriously grow your capital from trading the forex markets, just not If you’re a trading addict who needs to get his fix every day.

Don’t Expect too Much, too Soon
The second stage, where most people mess up and end up being discouraged, is expecting far too much, far too soon. Before falling into such a psychological trap, it’s important to develop your mindset to reflect patience and discipline, not to mention objectivity and most important of all, realistic expectations.

Only Trade If It’s Something you Love Doing
Traders who trade for the sake of trading are more successful than those who do it because they feel like they absolutely need to because It might help them financially. The explanation to this is quite logic based, when you love doing something, you’ll find that you do it better and if you don’t really have any good feelings towards something you’re doing, you’ll most likely struggle while doing it.

Have a successful trading week.
Best Regards.

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5 Important Tips From The Forex Masters.

No matter how much you might have advanced as a trader, at certain points in your career you’re going to wish you had a proper teacher or someone in the forex trading Olympus to help you out when you’re in a sticky position. Well, we’re here to bring you five tips from the experts so you don’t have to beg and suck up to the ‘big’ guys yourself.

1. Don’t Fool Yourself Into Thinking That You Will Trade One Day And Wake up Rich The Next
What most novice traders don’t understand is that you cannot always win, especially not in the first go, the more you start thinking that forex trading is an easy method of earning some quick money, the less likely you are to succeed as you become more prone to overtrading and making false judgments in a haste.

2. There’s More to Forex Trading Than Just the Market
Some complicated market strategies will seem appealing to you but you need to remember that you’re not in it to master the market; you’re trading to let the market master you. You can’t hope to control the market and make it work to your advantage, you need to control and discipline yourself first, good strategies will only take you so far, you need to take charge of yourself and know that half of what you do as a trader depends solely on your character.

3. Learn to Forget and Forgive (Yourself)
After a streak of losses it’s easy to get discouraged and give up on trading or lose your patience while trading, you need to remember to always go in a new trade with a clear head and an sunken heat. If you keep having that voice in your head reminding you of your loss, you won’t be able to move on and make new profits. You need to understand that how you did in the past will not influence how you do in the present or in the future when it comes to trading.

4. Change Things up Every Now and Then
Markets are ever changing and the forex market is very fluid so you need to remember that you can’t employ the same market strategies over and over again. You need to harness your ability to read the price changes like a pro and be able to adapt to new markets easily in order to really succeed.

5. Don’t Just do it For the Money
If you’re entering the forex trade business and the only thing that you have on your mind is the money you might be making, you probably need to rethink your entire decision to become a trader. Sure, it’s somehow considered brave and gutsy to quit your job and set everything aside to try your hand at trading but you need to be very realistic and practical while doing so. Only go into trading if it is something that piques your interest and learn to love the whole process of trading rather than just the possibility of the increasing bank balance.

Have a successful trading week.
Best Regards.

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Dollar Advances From 2015 Low Before UN Meeting on North Korea
The dollar climbed from a 32-month low as concerns over Hurricane Irma eased and the anniversary of North Korea’s founding passed without a missile test.
“Markets seem to have headed into the weekend priced for the worst -- a North Korean missile test and maximum financial damage from Irma,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The dollar seems overdue for a bounce. The dollar should return to 109 to 110 yen early in the week.”
The dollar is also supported by “decent” U.S. economic data momentum and a deal between President Donald Trump and the Democrats suspending the debt ceiling to December, Callow said. Still, traders said some short-term accounts took long-yen positions after the state-run Korean Central News Agency said Monday morning that the U.S. will pay a "due price" if harsher sanctions were imposed on North Korea at an expected United Nations Security Council meeting.
• USD/JPY rises 0.6% to 108.52, after touching 108.56; Bloomberg dollar index advances 0.2%, rebounding from Friday when it touched the lowest level since Jan. 2015
• 10-year Treasury yields climb 4 bps to 2.09%
o Japan backs a U.S. push for the UN Security Council to vote Monday on sanctions curbing oil supplies to North Korea; North Korean scientists behind the Sept. 3 nuclear weapons test were feted with a banquet over weekend
o Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said back-to-back hurricanes in the third quarter could temporarily influence the timing of the next interest-rate increase, although above-trend growth does warrant continued gradual rate hikes
• EUR/USD down 0.3% to 1.2002, with Asia-based FX traders saying clients are liquidating long positions under Friday’s 1.2015 low ahead of the UN meeting
• USD/CHF gains 0.6% to 0.9499; approaching the 0.9509 Friday high driven largely by EUR/CHF short unwind
• Aussie and kiwi reverse small gains driven by China inflation data; early Asian markets react to PBOC removing a reserve requirement on the trading of foreign-exchange forwards, a move that economists say shows an unease with yuan gains
• WTI crude up 0.6% to $47.77 per barrel
• Some information comes from FX traders familiar with the transactions, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly.

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Cadjpy.

Upward movement is expected to continue on this pair. The wave 4 retracement has been completed and halted at 86.04 and more importantly the pair has move back upwards and close above the 38.2 fibo region on 4h and daily.

we would now shift our sight towards the 87.45 region where the asset has been encountering some minor resistances before we take our sight upwards.

This asset seem to have completed the long downward move witnessed by the head and shoulder formation in order to correct the upward 5 wave movement upwards witnessed earlier.

We would now be looking to buy into this commodity. we would be expecting the price of this asset to move upward to the 15.39 point so as to validate the retracement completion and the uptrend resumption for the intermediate wave 3.

We would consider this position valid as long as the 12.48(in Red) price point is respected.