Princkez:
ELLAHLAKES and our audio plantation....we are @ km #4

Aah, I wanted to further top up my Afolabi units by selling a little FBNH again today. What to do now?

Most likely companies like this excelsior shipping would have taken up the opportunity this CBN capital raise exercise presented to buy banks like FCMB and the others for cheap. Retail investors look hesitant picking up the undervalued shares of the banks .

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/FMN_-_PRESS_RELEASE_ON_SCHEME_OF_ARRANGEMENT.pdf

crownprince2017:


I bought 350k units when there was massive dumping sometimes this year at 2.86.
The goodies in ellahlakes is not known to many, they will scrambled for it at 150 in two years time..just watch out with alot of patience. someone even named me their agent, no problem, they will soon come with fundamentals after he don't fly finish just like they are doing in presco now.

Buffet said accounting number is one of the beginning to value a company and not everything.

Even in a sophisticated economy like USA, numbers still get cooked and investors got duped.

I have already share my thoughts on Oil Rivers

As you quote Buffet let me refer to Peter Lynch also. In my own words, his view is that essoteric calculations are not needed for spotting the 5, 10, 50 & 100 baggers, but by just observation and awareness of companies around one and to see what's cooking in them and what prospects lie ahead.

To me Nigeria has a huge un-tapped oil rivers from Ondo to Calabar.

Streetinvestor2:
Elleh lake must go up by fire by thunder. I am waiting till berekete family will announce it or nse will ring the opening bell at the farm..lol

Offer side loading tomorrow

I saw it in Transcorp buying at +/- N1.00 with traders and what looks like MH upandan. But today Transcorp has left the N1.00 territory.

I am selecting Ellah lakes based on the fact that from Ondo state to Cross Rivers state is a fertile land that has huge comparative advantage for Palm Oil. Infact when the British called PH, "Oil Rivers", they were referring to Palm Oil rivers (not crude oil as some may erroneously think). PRESCO and OKOMU have demonstrated how great Palm Oil is under good company management. Also the Western region in the days of Pa Awolowo planted the biggest Oil Palm plantation at Okitipupa in current Ondo state. And it was listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange till kleptomaniac management ruined the whole set-up. With Good management Palm Oil is gooooood. I pray Ellah lakes takes off this time.

Streetinvestor2:
Elleh lake must go up by fire by thunder. I am waiting till berekete family will announce it or nse will ring the opening bell at the farm..lol

Offer side loading tomorrow

I don take small seat. They must repeat the PRESCO feat over time if they have good management as they are in an area of local comparative advantage. Also I looked at the price range over a period it looks stable under N4. I hope they did not give bonus that makes the historical price range erroneous

Princkez:
better buy now ooo b4 it gets to #10, I Don talk my finish.

I have gotten some Afolabi units

crownprince2017:


So when people sell to a willing buyer it's termed dumping.

An healthy market is where there is buyer and sellers because everyone placed different value on their assets na.
You only see healthy market with only buyer?

Looks like dumping because my bid of a couple of hundred thousand was filled in one go fiam without breaking it into smaller pieces. It may also be that one is just lucky a big sale is ongoing. And once it's finished, it's finished.

megawealth01:

Looks like someone is dumping the Ellah Lakes strategically. The price rise may soon stall.

megawealth01:


I bought based on tribal sentiment oooooo

Na only IB I still dey hold wey no dey pay shishi

Will grab a seat on Ellah Lakes bus.
Selection Criteria - Support entrepreneurial ventures that exploit the green revolution comparative advantages of the States and Nation. That's how I selected PRESCO in 2006. And it has been rewarding due to the excellent management of PRESCO.
It's as if the Ellah was dumped
Let's see how it goes

megawealth01:


Fidelity my ANAMBRA project. If they pay #1 eh my joy will be out of this world.

Imagine them paying me close to what I used in buying each unit back then

I have always known that fidelity will make me proud

The bank is good

To buy strategically cheaply one cannot rely on FA but on what flags sef

ndept:
watch out for the banking stocks. Seems the bull is rehearsing to take off.

UBA climbing up small small too. It needs to find its way to 30+

BabsO2:


I am naturally disposed to farming. Perhaps I may struggle to enter the moving bus to catch the seat of anyone disembarking and get some Afolabi units at a max of N3.9

Chai full bid no one disembarking again. Rushers have grabbed the seats of those that disembarked. Safe journey. Let's see when traders will start disembarking.

See one 200,000 units offer that just came up at N3.71. Buyers have started mopping it quickly. It's gone within 2 mins. Chai.

See another 764,500 units that just came up. Chai no cash in trading account. Before I turn around with cash it could be gone Gone within 2 minutes also.

defebe:


Fidelity and FCMB

Perhaps Fidelity has strategic investor(s) that believes in the management and is accumulating the shares. FCMB may be playing catch up with Fidelity or got strategic investor(s) too.

mails4funshi:



https://businessday.ng/interview/article/nigeria-needs-public-private-partnerships-to-drive-food-security-attueyi-chairman-ellah-lakes-plc-2/?utm_source=auto-read-also&utm_medium=web

I am naturally disposed to farming. Perhaps I may struggle to enter the moving bus to catch the seat of anyone disembarking and get some Afolabi units at a max of N3.9

crownprince2017:

https://www.operanewsapp.com/ng/en/share/detail?news_id=e55d481ed2181a366aa21f2e1c47caf9&news_entry_id=63585e90240922en_ng&open_type=transcoded&from=news&request_id=share_request&share_from

And Ellah Lakes kicked off with 10% on the next trading day. Missed out on this. And it is one the stocks that got a lot of attention on NSMPA. Wish those on board a safe journey. Nigeria needs a lot of entrepreneurial ventures to unlock its comparative advantages and unleash its potential.

Though UBA is currently more underpriced than Zenith or GTCO, its CBN mandated capital raise need to be priced closer to Zenith for several reasons.

In 2007 the public offer prices for the banks were
UBA N35.00 (rights was N34)
Zenith N38.90 (rights was N36.90)
FB N33.00 (rights was N31)
ACCESS N14.90
Fidelity N8:00
FCMB N14:00

2023 FY and 2024Q1 Book Values per share
UBA N57.37 & N73.81
Zenith N73.95 & N90.61
FB N47.88 & N52.53
ACCESS N42.34 & N **(looks lower than many quote)
Fidelity N13.67 & N14.6
FCMB N19.4 & N 22.62

Looking at earnings per share UBA, Access, Zenith and GTCO are competing strongly with Zenith in the lead and UBA attempting to drag position with GTCO. But I guess investors will place premiums on consistent dividend payout and growth. Zenith and GTCO are leading here.

Agbalowomeri:


Good job baby girl
However, you can hardly get any naija bank selling above PBV > 0.5

However, maybe we will get a new ololo trend this time.

emmanuelewumi:


It is possible to have a PBV of over 0.5 in Nigeria.

Price Book Value is determined by the Return on Equity, sustainable earning growth of the bank and the discount rate or minimum required return.

Just that the return on equity for Access will be about 19% , compared to 35% for Zenith based on their H1 and assuming that will be repeated in H2.

ROE of 19% by Access is less than my minimum required return of 20%

GTCO has the best PBV. It was above 1 for over a decade, until 2021 when it dropped to 0.9. Its lowest full year audited was in 2022 at 0.74

Zenith dropped below 1 since 2015 and currently hovers around 0.5 on full year numbers. If price doesn't go up from current values even with the current capital raise Zenith PBV may fall below 0.5 suggesting it is currently further under-priced in the market compared to the last couple of years.

UBA dropped below 1 since 2011 and even below 0.5 by 2015 and has struggled to climb above 0.5 - UBA needs to ramp up dividends payment to get better pricing before its capital raise to match its increasing book values per share. As it has achieved the greatest rise in book values per common shares listed on the NGX amongst the banks.

ojeysky:


Well historically UBA/access dividend does not match or come close to zenith/gtco. Stanbic have also always paid higher dividend than zenith/gtco. Even though Stanbic is the last in FUGAS Na their Oga

UBA caught up with Zenith/GTCO in last year interim dividend payment. The three paid 50 kobo interim dividend last year. Let's see if UBA can resist being left behind by Zenith/GTCO in interim dividend payment this year.

crownprince2017:


You can't compare Africa continent to other part of developed world where they have great alternative sources of energy. In Africa which remains a strong hold of dangote, we are still going to be relying on fossil fuel for atleast another 15-20 years which is a good PBP for dangrefinery.

Agree. Africa will need petrol for a long time. Another plus for the refinery is it has other products apart from fuels that will remain in demand for Africa and the rest of the world. What's the list of the other products apart from fuels sef?

pluto09:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Refineries-Go-Bankrupt-Amid-Plummeting-Margins.html

So those listing Dangote Refinery on NGX will likely harvest their profits quickly. Buying on NGX may not be that attractive.

BabsO2:


No matter the argument FCF is between N100b & N200b

Lenders are enjoying this FCF from Uche Oluwasegun and very soon Shareholders will start their offtakes (Dividends)

emmanuelewumi:



Using unaudited result will be misleading. Wait till he resolves the argument he is having with his auditors, accountants and tax professionals

No matter the argument FCF is between N100b & N200b

emmanuelewumi:


Uche business is not up to this size na.

Is this an audited report?

Uche's business is MEGA
Unaudited 2023.

I even understated the FCF it is approaching $170b sef

emmanuelewumi:

I will advise you to study his accounts again, he doesn't have free cash flow, working capital is in negative same with solvency state

Not used to calculating free cash flow. I understand the concept. Look at the cashflow statement. Oando had a neat positive FCF in 2023 unaudited of N105 billion.

Please can those used to FCF calculations please cross-check.

emmanuelewumi:



Uche is now born again, he got gonorrhea from one of his side chicks.. Since he got cured few months ago, he is now sober apart from that he is now in his 50s and has decided to get closer to God.

Unfortunately people are still very skeptical, let us see as events unfolds

Amen. Praise the Lord !!!!

emmanuelewumi:




Yes most ballers and socialites are highly indebted, they will always use debt to service debt


Pray you don't work for an employer who is a socialite or a baller

Prayer time?
Pray for a successful joggling of short term cash flow and smooth turnaround of the business. Pray dividends start rolling from this year cashflow. Pray book value turns positive this year so that analysts can start their valuation calculations with audited and unaudited financial statements. Pray pray pray

Tpharell:

Now, this is a rather bleak picture!
But Uche is able to keep up appearances, and is considered the toast of the town amongst young women in the area.

A real toast of the town as restaurants and clubs are making tons of money as the ladies flirt with Uche all over the place. Meanwhile Emeka no give the restaurants and clubs any reason to smile as his trade volumes are small.

emmanuelewumi:



No record of free cash flow for Uche, infact he had to sell his Jeep, land and house in order to enhance liquidity yet his liabilities are more than his assets


Another major problem with him is with his working capital

He found out he could get cheaper loans from First Bank, so he got another loan from First Bank in order to settle Access Bank because those guys at Access are Badass

He made cash from his buying and sell business as well as from his production business now. Yes he sold the house and jeep to liquidate some labilities as the jeep is just a fuel guzzler wasting money away in this time of high fuel price. While that house is not really an investment as it was a loss making venture as tenants don't pay timely, neither is the property full accupied and there are always repairs to be done amongst other fees. He is not doing too badly joggling his working capital.

emmanuelewumi:




Assuming the N300 million asset of Emeka and Uche generate the same annual cash flow of N100 million per annum.

Emeka can use N70 million to service his N160 million debt, reinvest in his business.


Whereas the N70 million annual cash flow of Uche can't service his N350 million debt. He will rely on overdraft for the running of his operations, will always be renegotiating loans with his bank, will be using debts to service debt


The only way Uche can get out of this quagmire is recapitalize his business, inject more capital in form of equity.

But debt is not the biggest item in Uche's liabilities. But provisions for the school he opened with his side-chick to settle omo-onile as well as provision he made for removing his business when he retires. He infact has not spent the provision but set aside the money on paper. Yet his JV school and assets are generating surplus cash. He pays his bankers, employees and contractors as when due and still had surplus cash.

Uched has no need for recapitalization to run current business. He only needs more money to fund new diamond mining assets he just acquired.

Interesting. Zenith mark down today by N1 for dividend payment does not look obvious because of the N38 closing price on Friday So buying today means I am not entitled to dividend. Making the PO offer a discount of 50 kobo today for one interested in loading up through PO route, while getting a N1 discount if one still has rights not yet taken.

mikeapollo:


I suspect FBNH will be coming to raise capital.
Expect UBA soon after FBNH

A power play is still ongoing in FBNH, difficult to forecast timing of their capital raise. However, I forecast they'll wait till next year especially UBA.
it's better they wait for a year while dishing out better dividends to excite investors, while proving they have gone up a notch in financial strength. They can only prove this through increased dividend payments. This will then make the market adjust their valuations up.

KarlTom:
I don't think they are going to decommission any of NAOC assets.

All assets will be decommissioned at the end of their service life. The provisions are just setting aside money for this when they occur in future. So that assets will not pose danger to people when they are no more in use for operations.