emmanuelewumi:



People and institutions buying bonds don't sell shares in order to invest in bonds.


Over N900 billion was bidded yesterday but over N600 billion was successful.

Where is the extra N300 billion returned to investors?

They will rather invest it in fixed deposit or money market fund for 28 days to 30 days earning about 15% and the bid again in the primary market next month or better still buy in the secondary market from today

Stuff like this is not cast in stone as the various people involved have various dispositions.

The size of the bond market trade in the monthly auction is bigger than the sum of trades on the NGX in most months I guess. The data is readily available. Nothing stops me from selling FBNH at N40 to buy FGN bonds when the opportunity came up. Neither did anything stop you from selling DS when you did to key the proceeds into bonds. And this happening can be a reason for the pull backs observed in the last picture i pulled from investing.com

emmanuelewumi:

Why didn't see the effects of those whose bids didn't succeed in the stock market today.
Keeping your cash in fixed deposit till the next primary market offer is also a strategy

Locotrader:

I am concerned about the market itself not oando.Oando may sail through tomorrow but this type of red in the market is not what you go to bed and sleep with both eyes closed.

Looking at NSE 30, the monthly bond auction dates seem to align with red days in the market. Most likely it's the same effect with the main all share index. (Did not find the all share index readily so I made do with the NSE 30 as it should be representative enough)

Looking at the past the market should recover in about 3 days if this current red is due to the demand for funds from the bond market.
But this April deep started some days before the auction, so there is a possibility recovery will be faster or perhaps slower. It's starting earlier may also be due to funds required for the holidays last week. The first market deep was also on Jan 29, the auction date for that month.

Locotrader:


You bought at good price today.
It will close arnd 12.50 to 13 today

It is still at N12.10 with about a million units on offer at that price. With 30 minutes to go let's see if there is a surprise mop up.

Market reaction to impending case this time is different. Perhaps an indication that the outcome of the case will be different tomorrow

OANDO sighted on full offer @#12.10K

Immediately I press buy the transaction went through just now.
If them like make them adjourn the case tomorrow. Better they just cancel the case o

Adinije:
DS/NS follow banks dey dip, if bank appreciate now, they will not

Streetinvestor2:
Single digit for bond is not possible oh.You should say btw 12 -15%

Lots of stable nations are running on single digit. It is possible.
Double digit is a sign of bad economy. For us insecurity is a major cause of our bad economy amongst so many other vices. Me that like farming i just can't go farming anyhow despite the massive yields possible. Only the likes of PRESCO & OKOMU have demonstrated the untapped comparative advantage in farming.

yMcy56:

Ok thanks.
So it's Bonds today again.......issokay o.

I think till the bond rate (and inflation rate) go down properly; the market will struggle to rise well.

Bond rates need to go back to single digit for the economy to stabilize.

yMcy56:
This volatile Market self!
What's the cause of today's dumping again?
Inflation level or what again?
Today's trade doesn't look like the usual bear market from my point of view..

I think it is temporary. Tied around the bond auction of yesterday. The auction marginal rates started going down self. Some of those that bided too high and got nothing will come back to the market sooner or later.

DrAkpamudehe:


So what is the difference between #2.30 and #2.70 ? In accounting and public finance, little financial errors are permissible.

He was just making unnecessary fuss in a casual discuss. Where we even always say from time to time do your DI as most of the write up's here are pointers written in one go and not double or triple checked to weed out errors . Pointers for the discerning investor.

Perhaps fat cat investors are taking position in bonds to balance their portfolios. Yesterday's bond auction was at 20% for the 10 year bond. And this ten year bond gathered N462b of the total N627b auctioned. As investors locked in for the longest duration auctioned.

222Martins:


So you mean if i buy UBA today, i will get paid N2.70 dividend by 24th of May? Just dey play!!! I don't know if you guys just like to deliberately misinform people. The dividend to be paid to anyone that enters UBA today is N2.30, that is 10% on an entry price of N23; as against the N2.70 you all are trumpeting.

it's N2.30 not N2.70

DrAkpamudehe:


That is 11.25% profit at the current price if U buy now to get paid by the 14th of may

All those that buy till the 10th of May will get paid N2.30 on the 24th of May.

Adinije:
Everywhere Red

Even Oando this time around is no more rallying in anticipation - that the court case may be favorable to ordinary shareholders tomorrow. Gloomy market today

DrAkpamudehe:

UBA @ 24#. Enter now, you may never get it this cheap again this quarter

Don't understand this market. The current price carries a dividend of N2.30 that will be paid in a months time.

2zona:


God abeg oo, world war III has been trending since yesterday oo, Iran, Israel and co. Hope they will spare our fragile market_?

Amen

Mpeace:
You go dey believe politicians, Dey play.

But sha I pray the economy recovers. I pray.

I just join in prophesying and praying. Many of us want to see the market rising for the rest of the year and coming years sef.
It will be excellent to see the banks and NGX listed companies continue to grow and the $1T economy achieved.

BabsO2:

I think the capital raise is indeed to support the $1T economy.
Long term investors need to watch the GDP growth of the economy. The kind of growth that occurs will suggest the likely growth in bank incomes. Most likely the quarterly reports of the banks will be released before GDP data. If both align in a growth direction it means the recapitalization of the banks is delivering results. The rate of growth at individual bank level as well as group level will suggest the quality of the growth the banks & government is achieving. Poor growth signals trouble in the horizon.

Economy will roar back in coming months - Tinubu

Kwibaba:


I also do not agree that it is common sense that those are the only 2 objectives of the recapitalization. What happened to the plan of 1 trillion economy of the govt? How do they achieve that by staching money away?

I think the capital raise is indeed to support the $1T economy.
Long term investors need to watch the GDP growth of the economy. The kind of growth that occurs will suggest the likely growth in bank incomes. Most likely the quarterly reports of the banks will be released before GDP data. If both align in a growth direction it means the recapitalization of the banks is delivering results. The rate of growth at individual bank level as well as group level will suggest the quality of the growth the banks & government is achieving. Poor growth signals trouble in the horizon.

chipa:

The banks are not superman but know that a lot of financial dynamic has occurred in the economy since after the the 31th Dec 2023 and the banks are going to utilize those opportunities to maintain the status. I will like to list some as
(1) The interest rate on loan has increased to upto 600 to 1000 points and still counting.
(2) The rate on Treasury bill has increased to upto 600 points.
(3) The increased in retained earnings has been deployed for service.
(4) The 1st quarter revaluation will be done at N1300 as of 31/03/2024. Which appears to be as the same rate of increase in half Year audited results of 2023 or slightly lower.
I will advise you to wait and see the earnings that will be coming from the banks in 1st quarter financial report.

The revaluations are not done at current market rates like that. But at very conservative rates less than N800.
One can use ETI reports which are published both in NGN and USD to estimate what rates are being used by the banks to compute their translations.

chillykelly86:


You may need to shed light on this. If possible, direct us to the page on the Annual report.

However, I think tier 1 capital is simply tier 1 capital. The question to ask is: do the other banks you said are not doing so have USD tier 1 capital? What USD tier 1 capital will result in is a fluctuation in equity( closely following fluctuations in exchange rates, to the extent/ratio of the USD tier 1 capital to total equity), not miscalculation. It's equity that will never be paid back, isn't it?

Look at page 57 the line item for Additional Tier 1 Capital
Look at page 204 note c(ii)

The AFS has no misstatement.

But the computation of BVPS of N70 is a misstatement. As that is not net assets a common NGX shareholder is entitled to.

chillykelly86:


The bolded is confusing. Between 2022 and 2023, due to the devaluation of naira, any dollar holdings will result in improved valuations in accounts stated in naira. You may need to revisit those sentences so we can get your opinion clearly.

Look at the Consolidated statement of Financial Position and the note 38 of the AFS. You should be able to spot it. Seems I cannot paste an attached picture at the moment.

One need to understand the make up of Total Equity for banks
1. Common Shareholders
2. Additional Tier 1 Capital,

In FUGAZ additional tier 1 is zero for all of them except for Access.

unite4real:


i do not think the electricity subsidy removal will increase the income of the DISCOS. they had been over invoicing the govt on the subsidy. Now that customers on band A have to shoulder the responsibilities, they will be more prudent in energy utilizations

It will surely rub on the discos as i doubt govt paying any so called subsidy to them promptly. Now they collect their money sharp sharp. Now before any fault or outage occurs na them they run to quickly fix it unlike before - that tells me they are motivated to deliver and surely benefitting better than before.

chillykelly86:


FBNH's audited results is not yet out. But UBA has been added.

Image credits to @rufyb on X.

The book value of ACCESS is overstated as the tier 1 capital taken in USD was stated in 2022 and 2023 AFS under equity in NGN without factoring in devaluation. Because of this understatement and its use of USD tier 1 capital added to equity, which other banks are currently not doing, some of the metrics calculated for the bank can be wrong when computing investment ratios for common shareholders. The Tier 1 Cap has been very useful for its fast expansion program.

robobo:


"I think he needed the drama to tidy the results up" == in hindisght (20/20), this is looking more like the intention.

( i am seeing/dreaming something like the AP / Otedola saga from sub 10 to over 300)

That will be a lovely thing if it happens
But make him stay up like SEPLAT and not fall back like AP
Make him embrace quarterly dividends like global oil companies that SEPLAT has emulated.

thebargainhunte:


If he wanted, he would have done it long time ago the way Ardova did. I think he needed the drama to tidy the results up. You might not be far from the truth, he wanted to turn a new leave now. Oando remains a stock to watch, but one has to know dinning with Oando is like dinning with the ....

Looking more and more like he needed the drama to tidy things up and come out bragging of the turnaround he has led. Could see the bragging already started in the November 2023 AGM The air around him in that AGM suggests he would love the good limelight and not a boring delisted operation. Though he can still achieve limelight by SM even if he delists - dinning with the ......

thebargainhunte:


I doubt oando will be delisted

I bet it will not be delisted.
Rather it will start paying dividends by next year latest. Will not be surprised if we even get a dividend this year.

OANDO

sky2891:

Since the AFS has been approved by the Board and sent to FRC, are we sure some people have not seen it?

Locotrader:

When the bids gets to 50m or above, know something good is about to happen but for now..........

Already on full bid with max daily gain. No offers on the floor for sale at the moment. That's how optimisim springs up once court date is nearing. Time for this case to be struck out joor.

ositadima1:


Let me guess, you are well-invested in UBA. When did 26 billion become a small amount? LOL

You even reduce the gap further. Thanks
N260b difference
That's 22% of Zeniths number. Not small

unite4real:


These are sentimental analysis. What about their incomes and when you factor their costs out from their incomes. We are talking about profit here. Would you choose to have less employee and post less profit than to have higher employees and post superior profits. What you should consider is what you see at the bottom line
What is the earning reports of both banks. Their EPS should be important to you as a shareholder

Look at the original question. The answer was address it.

I think you are imaging/answering additional questions, which is fine.
Ask your questions

There are various investment ratios and considerations an FA investor will calculate and ponder on.

KarlTom:
You just echoed my thoughts.

I've spent a couple of hours perusing the AFS of both Coys and the more I look, the less I seem to understand.

Some differing metrics:
Net interest income GTHC 436.6bn Zenith 736.1bn
PAT GTHC 539.6bn Zenith 676.9bn

Can anyone she'd come light on this?

Thank you

Zenith has more expenses than GT. Zenith reported 8,165 employees, while GT reported 5,487 employees.
Perhaps due to more branch network.

leparj:


I see First Bank here.
Is their result also out.

First Bank Full year Audited is not out. But the Full year unaudited was released in January.

Ibrahim505:
Retained earnings of Tier 1 banks in 🇳🇬 based on latest filings
Zenith N1.8 trillion
UBA N918.8 billion
Access N715 billion
First Bank N609 billion
GT N580 billion
© Olamide Adesina

You are overstating Zenith retained earnings. Zenith is not double of UBA, but above by a small amount.
The correct Numbers are
Zenith N 1.18 Trillion
UBA N 0.92 Trillion
Access N 0.72 Trillion
First Bank N 0.68 Trillion *** Unaudited Full Year numbers
GT N 0.58 Trillion