@ MyPeace (love the username by the way),
I'd buy them both, I'm assuming you're in it for the long term anyway,

@ wanajo, I understand. You remain a selfless guy blessing others with your knowledge.

@wasky-waka,
sorry I hadn't yet given my suggestions. I'd suggest serious diversification,  Maybe even up to 40 stocks with the volume u'd able to command, the % distribution would depend on your goal/strategy (CICO, growth etc) . Set purchase limits allowing you to buy at low prices and sale limits mandating a sale after 10% -  30% net profit is made (sell all if it is a CICO stock, sell a portion if it is a stock that'll still appreciate). Lock in your profits. If well diversified, it'll be like a monthly/bi-monthly paycheck you're reinvesting. You need not worry if the prices still go up after that as long as your are inputting the money into another stock or even the same stock (if it can still fetch you another 10% - 30%). 10% - 30% is much easier to come by. Greed can wipe away gains or even cause a loss, but depends on your risk appetite. You can still reach your goals with compounding on these. Chasing 100% (in that time frame), hmm chances of finding that "magic stock" are much slimmer, the odds are greatly against you, but the "average" stock plenty for ground, but depends on your strategy. Leave a certain % of the folio liquid and have outstanding purchase mandates (waiting for your CICO stocks to fall to purchase price) so you are not really leaving the money idle. This will not only fund the acct but also allow you to pick up any "new" "majic stock" oppurtunities that come along (you can then cancel some of you pending mandates to balance your acct if such happens. Nothing worse than an oppurtunity coming up (that you were priviledged to know about) but had to miss out on due to liquidity. Since this was idle money anyway, you can afford to ride the long wave up to 100%. It wasn't a part of your game plan. A large percentage of the folio should be on solid growth stocks, fundamentally sound, longer term (safe guranteed returns), but also depending on your risk appetite. With CICOing, know that compounding is key, and the frequency with which you CICO is key. Sorry, since You & your friend already seem to have a nice & varied selection of stocks, I thought I'd recommend a strategy instead (plus there are people here much better at analysing stocks than I am),  with their input, the strategy you use now will be key, but my guy, there is almost no magic formula that'll help you reach your goals. You may have to reevaluate/rearrange portfolio from time to time (also why you need liquidity), and change gears etc to reach goals. Mix it all up and give weight/greater % to what suits you best. i.e. engineer the NSE to meet your goals. All the best man.

Wanajo, in the post right above yours, i put this comment "I do have to add that there have been objective responses in some of the comments though, etc". My man, I was referring to your comments/responses, and I agree with most of it, some of which are arguble depending on the guys finances, but still doesn't discredit what you've pointed out. May exactly fit for him or any other reader, hence your responses were objective. Quoting recipe for disaster wasn't aimed at discrediting anything you said. Some of the other responses didn't do any of that. Keep up the good work man.

@ invisible , no my guy. I'm not saying you are condeming it. At all! I'm saying the size of the loan is clouding the judgement in the responses. And also, I'm not advocating for people to take bigger risks. At all. I'm saying the risk he is taking may be a very small one (hence smaller fall as you've said). Maybe 200m is the big risk for him. One size does not fit all now. For all you know, he can loose that amount of money in a day and still smile to the bank. I just wanted peeps to focus & be more objective that's all. All comments and responses are good, but it started going way left for me. I do have to add that there have been objective responses in some of the comments though, keeping it on that track would be nice for the guy in the dilema.

@ Wasky-Waja's 40m loan issue,

Most people don't even know the guys "pocket" and are already proclaiming it a recipe for disaster, high blood pressure, psychiatric medication etc.  Why should it be? If some are comfortable borrowing 1m, and the guy is capable of borrowing 40m (the equivalent risk of other peoples 1m to him) then I'm show he's not a joker and knows what he's doing,  It's not anyone that the banks give 40m to ,  If you add up several peoples portfolios on this site (borrowed money portion), it will surpass 40m wouldn't it? ,  so all of them added together make a recipe for disaster? Plus the guy would probably diversify (I hope) making it seem like a few peoples folios being brought together. After all the only thing that counts is the percentage gain regardless of the size of the portfolio   ,  Big money, Small money, all make the same % gain on the same stocks now. Wish responses would focus on that as opposed to the size of the loan.  If na Dangote pikin come announce this dilema, the conversation for no take this angle  

crazyT:



Baba Tobi, the thing dey fear me o. Bought about 1m units before the TS @ 6.02 and see me see wahala the thing don pass 100% Abegi God too much for me.
Capoil too no wan hear, bought @ 0.33kobo 

Did I hear someone shout Halleluyah!!!

Halleluyah!  I rejoice with you. I believe one of the keys to your success is exactly what you just did ,  testified to God's goodness & Prasied Him (music to His ears) ,  don't stop,    May God's hand in your success never cease,  May He show me, and us all, favour as He's shown you in Jesus' name. Amen!

pumping777:

By yo-yo in this case, I mean that the stock has been going sideways like I said in my post. No cyclic movement. That is why I dumped it.

No chance for a reasonable margin for the weeks I held it. A long term candidate in my opinion.

aahh, sorry, got you , keep up the good work man!

pumping777:

Flour wetin? I dumped that stock like 3 weeks ago. It was a yo-yo stock only good at moving sideways . There are several stocks that will do better than Flour Mills long term or short term.

Don't get me wrong, it can do N100, but that is no fantastic margin looking at it's current price of N83.

@ pumping, yoyo ke? what margin have you been pulling out? The low point has been around N75.00 & the high point about N82 for the past few months,  that's less than 10%,  and that's not including any broker fees or commission

I wont advise just putting it all in one stock,  plus you need to give more details next time about your investment strategy (are you into active trading or safe investing, a mixture of strategies? etc, time line etc (short, med, long term, mixture) ,  Learn more about you risk profile etc ,  See a few suggestions below which is not at all exhaustive,   since I don't know you or your risk profile, I'll play it safe by suggesting safer/less risky stocks,   the percentage distribution would be up to you,  totally dependent on you and your investment style/ objectives etc,  Hope it helps at least, all the best,

p.s. I'm surprised UBA left off Dangote Sugar from this their investible stocks list sha,  anyway, still a good & safe compilation non the less.

Bay1970:

Fatherof2, pumping, wendy, wanajo and others.
you guys are making others rich, thanks for all your selfless contributions to make this forum a safe place.
I did the shareplus thing with UBA for first bank, they refunded over 1m of my money, gave an option to invest the money on this stocks or close the account.
Access Bank   ,  Medium to Long Term (more Long Term) but will be worth the wait depending on your strategy/ies sha
Ashaka Cement
Chevron Nigeria Plc
Diamond Bank ,  Medium Term
Ecobank Plc
First Bank Plc ,  Medium to Long Term
Flour Mills ,  Short, Medium, Long Term ,  but relatively marginal
Glaxosmithkline
GTBank ,  Medium to Long Term ,  should show some appreciation in short term though, but much more long term.
IBTC Chartered
Intercontinental Bank Plc
Mobil
Nestle
Nigeria Breweries Plc
PZ
Total Nigeria Plc
UBA ,  Medium to Long Term
Unilever
Union Bank
WAPCO ,  Short to Medium Term  ,  should also be good Long Term, but most of the appreciation should have occurred by Medium Term unless fundamentals change / pending future results.
Zenith Bank. ,  Medium to Long Term,  some rallying in the short term though.
where can I put the 1.2m,  need only one stock. thankz a lot.

CAVEAT EMPTOR!!! and in some cases CAVEAT VENDITOR!

windywendy:

Colts Ko, Colts ni Just because we (the PATS) let you beat us in the last superbowl doesn't mean it'll happen again. We were just being magnanimous back then . This year, NO SHOW!!

Go Patriots! Go Tom Brady! Go Gisselle Budchen (His Model Girlfriend)   (I've never even lived in any of the New England States , visit sometimes though)

Anyway, I just got my First Bank Refund Warrant, (maybe some already have theirs) , Couldn't have come at a better time for me, Every kobo is being reinjected into the NSE (secondary market ofcourse)

@ olufemi : no quams  

@ easimoni: today must be a lucky day for you (one of the plenty ofcourse), ur # of posts is currently 777, it just caught me off guard, no post again until u don make some trades o,

ololufemi:

@ Fatherof2,
Baba well done and I am sure you are happy that everyday on this thread adds to your pool of disciples.
Good thing you started the awareness for short term benefits and I sincerely appreciate it.
What should we aim for with regards to FCMB so as to show that we are not being greedy oh
Me I no greedy oh

If u were including me as well, then you are wrong,  I no be disciple ooo _{(actually dislike the way the word is being used),}  far from it, I respect his style just like I respect wanajo & co's styles & a lot of other styles on this site equally. I tend to be a mixture of most depending on a lot of factors _{(to each his own),}  I'm neither on one extreme or the other,  just keep my mind open, and remain master of my own domain,   

Quote by Grabdaloot:
about your question if you should cash out that kind of money to go trading  in Nigeria. You could make a kill and on the other hand you could end up in a pyscratic ward. Volumes moves the market take a stock for AGLEVENT the highest trade this year is on a single day is 1.7m units the lower limit of its intrinsic value is N6.50 while the upper is about N9 but it is all dependent on the performance of the company now knowing this you decide to place an order for about 100m units what do you think will happen. You would have tilted the market. The wise ones acquire over a period of time and then place this kind of order on daily basis mopping up the excess. Then when band-wagon effect has caught on they offload the ones the had bought earlier. This ploy was used on AFROIL, IPWA etc and believe me boys have cleaned out. If you want to do legitimat trading with that kind of money, I would think that only the banking sector can afford to move volumes without raising much of an eyebrow anyway let me not bore you guys too much
************************************
@ grabdaloot, nice one my brother,  I hinted at this a while back (dumping of smaller portions to prop up the price to make a large move on the significant portion when demamnd for the stock is now so high, maybe even on net bid,  due to the artificial scarcity that was created) because I susupected the same thing was in motion with another coy,  (twas only suspicion oooh, & with the lack info on many companies & their financials, na so e go remain,  suspicion). The NSE can be very irrational, that's why I respect comments made by Fatherof2 and co,  no amount of fundamentals alone can be enough in a market such as the NSE,  you also have to learn the behaviour of the market you are trading in, or as Fof2 puts it, "her personality"

@aktopgun, Congratulations to you and yours. May God grant you all the strength and wisdom to raise him right & in the way of the Lord, and may God continue to bless, increase and provide for you and yours. Amen!

Great way to testify to God's goodness (wife and child, healthy and well),  not all cases go that way you know. We also thank Him for his goodness on your behalf,,   now get to back to taking care of mummy & baby  

RoughCut:

There were 4.7B shares on offer and plus the over-subscription of 160% they are absorbing and GDR an additional 8.5B shares of ACCESS will be listed of which stanbic have been allotted 1.9B so with outstanding shares of ~6.5B that makes a total of ~15B that will be listed so stanbic will be owning about 13% of ACCESS they are nowhere near acquring controlling shares in the bank.

By the time FCMB PO is completed 35% of the bank will be owned by off-shore institutional investors so the point i'm making is there's no single entity that will be allowed to own controlling shares in these banks even if the banks belong in the second division league

Third-division league banks will definitely be swallowed up in the next two years!

Roughcut - I agree with you my man, but that may only be step 1 (they may not be through yet),  and also those percentages you mentioned are dangerous enough, especially if the close 2nd only holds 2% or much less,  these are megacorps,  1% is huge,  when shareholder voting on issues comes around, could sway things in their favour a little (1 party owning 13% or 35%, and over a million sharing the remaining)

by the way, i don't post much, but wanted to give Kudos to all the "gurus" & regular contributors for their continued selflessness,  you know yourselves ,  wanajo, pumping, easimoni, fatherof2, roughcut, emmaachile, aylala, shigidi, windywendy, yodiyokun & others (sorry I can't remember/type all names, but you know urselves)

** aahh and how could I forget my man, Temmie10 ,  I think our styles have a few similarities,

RoughCut:

54% of the shares on offer at the time they did the PO and not 54% of the bank that doesnt look like a takeover bid to me

True, but you forget to note that a large enough percentage can also be mopped up on the floor in addition to the PO (and there's no one to govern who buys what from the floor),  could be done directly or indirectly,  buying into intitutions, other companies that own large enough percentages of the shares

Hostile take overs of banks are now even more plausible than before due to this new law postponing CBN verification to post allotment. We may see more attempts of these, and series of law suits etc, SEC & CBN may have a big task ahead of them.

wanaj0:

While I get your point, in Nigeria maximum you can lose in a day is 5%. Also, stocks that are not liquid are always difficult to sell. That's why one should be careful on those illiquid stocks!!!!!

My point exactly,  To add to that, one also needs to be careful of the distribution of the shares in a company (this info is quite difficult to come buy),  That is a major factor in the illiquidity. This is easy to control during the IPP/PO stages (primary market,  during allotment), but is more difficult to control on the secondary market (where groups, fund mngrs etc mop up a good share of the market cap in that company to be dangerous). It may not be good when one or a few people/ groups have enough power (a larger share of the market cap than most others) to cause irrational movements in the price. The more even the distribution (not necessarily the larger the nmbr of shareholders), the more rational it will be. Less chances of the kind of thing that happened to NASCONs price (falling) happening after what Dangote did with his shares. We will get there though,  hope to see the SEC be more proactive to this. Nice one,


*** just to clarify ,  I'm not saying that everyone should have an equal or close number of shares ooo. Someone could very well have one million times the nmbr of shares that I have, and that's fine, as long as there are enough people like him/her to compete, and enough like me, and enough of every other block inbetween,  that's what I mean by a nice distribution.

pumping777:
1. ,  [b]You gain nothing until you are in a position to sell [i](even if you don't).[/[/i]b]

Incorrect statement, and could be very costly. No gains have been actualised/realised until sold (not counting dividends etc,  which may still not be a gain),  A position to sell does not guarantee gains. To sell, someone must be willing to buy. If noone is willing to buy at that price, then that sale position you are proud of means nothing, and you could even see the position erode to a point of loss. A lot of people think this way, but luckily they are trading in the NSE where there is a little protection,  If that way of thinking is applied in other developed markets, the consequences could be very dire ( but thats why they have calls & puts and other instruments to help protect them). I believe Ericsson recently lost 25% in a day just a few days ago,  Enron lost over 90% in a day when that issue happened, (a lot of people's "perceived gians" wiped away in one trading session),  No cause for alarm though,  these are very rare & the NSE is somewhat investor friendly,

wanaj0:

Why the hurry Stay put and enjoy the LOOT

I second that! Ride the wave for as long as it lets you,  Know when to exit though (remember you haven't made any money till you've sold),  maybe if it starts going south (if still no news/fundamentals to support the figures by then) ,  can always try and re-enter, but remember its not that liquid (you are already fortunate to have), but then, there'll probably be a plethora of other nice stocks to chose from. Totally dependent on your investment objectives.  Luckily the NSE would only let you loose 5% in a day. Win-Win for you 

Oh by the way, before I forget to say it, Great work!!! especially by the Gurus, but also all the contributors , this is an excellent information venue, Thanks again,

wanaj0:

It is not a liquid stock. How many shareholders do they have? That's why you have limited deals and few units being traded. Placed an order over 5 months ago but yet to get a single unit to BUY.

Trust that I've always known it is not a liquid stock, and I also tried buying way back when with no luck. Your guess is as good as mine as to the number of shareholders they have which further enforces why one should tread with caution. There are many other "not liquid" stocks that do better than this, plus I doubt if any of them will be going northwards such as this, and we wouldn't see their activities increase,  It has done over 25% in a week, and all you get is 2 deals being made at at an avg of N7500 per deal  ,  resembles handshakes being made between people dumping off insignificant portions off their shares (and using those to push up the price) to potentially double, tripple/ quadruple the significant portion. Is there any news to justify the rally? Anyways, still just speculating.

wanaj0:

I think they are planning an offer. Capital Oil control the distribution of petroleum products in the South East

@ Wanajo - I think I would have to agree. I'm speculating the same thing also (haven't come across any news of it yet, maybe someone has). I was studying it as well, but couldn't put a finger on it. There is still something very odd about it all though. It's been gaining about 5% daily for the past week, but notice the # of deals, the volume & the value, It's been averaging about only 2 deals per day, and about 15,000 shares valued at about N15,000 daily, This is way too small, It could very well be insider trading, trying to prop up the price prior to coming out for an offer, by then the books could be very well cooked to justify the possibly overvalued stock. All is speculation though , someone may very well know something I don't

I agree, I also think if Al Gore comes in, game over for the others, I think the democrats are really shooting themselves in the foot though. This is the elections that is supposed to be handed over to them on a silver platter (with the populations dissatisfaction with Bush & the republicans), but what do they do, they put out 2 minorities (Hillary & Obama) as their front runners, and not just minorities, both of them will be the first of any kind for America, and as much as we may like them, America is not really ready for this (and it is very "unspoken"), I think a lot of Democrats are even voting independent because they don't want to be forced to pick between either, John Edwards may actually reap the rewards of this, mindless of what the polls currently say,

Congratulations! to you and yours. Wish you all the best.

@ seun,
Could you give examples of accounting records that "MUST" be changed,  Sorry, I'm neither an accountant nor an economist,  I'm an engineer, both by education & by profession, (my little disclaimer!!)

@ dajunta,
not necessarily, he may not have wasted tax payers' money (plus I don't know if he knew for sure that he would be introducing the redenomination),  ,  I'm assuming the avg life of a note (wether N200, or N500) is about 1-3 years in naija, after all the circulation & how many times it changes hands before it is replaced/reprinted (given that the US' avg life is 3-5 years & Nigeria is much more cash intensive & when u factor all the spraying & dancing untop of money, ),  Anyway, the cost of printing new N1000 notes should have been 5 times cheaper than reprinting five N200 notes (almost the same cost of production regardless of the denomination). So, by him introducing the N1000 notes, he may have saved tax payers much more (by not having to reprint 5 of the N200 notes instead),  Thats why we need to move towards a cashless system, or have fewer "notes" in circulation which I think this redenomination would do.

@ozigbo,
One years "heads up" should be sufficient,  I should think they have educational rallies planned over the next year

@ okasime & seun,
True ,  There are still some "artificial" ways I believe, like increasing it's amount in reserves,  which is known to boost confidence in that particular currency (as it is being "backed by the dollar", a higher amount that it used to) ,  but some could say that is still a market force though,

.

LMAO - This is so hilarious , laughter is good,

@ magneto, thanks, but no need to save the 20s except you plan on spraying it a party during the interim / transitionary period , maybe they may look similar from far away or people hear u r spraying 20s/ or some new to the country peeps think u r one paid up guy, just kidding, dispose of them before a date they are no longer acceptable as legal tender (they'll no longer be worth the paper they are printed on), you may keep a few as collectors item though who knows. all the best man.

I understand, and I agree we need to be cautious and learn from others mistakes. I honestly, am not trying to attack you, I just enjoy having intelligent conversations. Thanks to all nairalanders that have made it possible.

I read the articles you posted, and I seriously dislike when the media blows things out of proportion by saying investors (stock market wise) have lost billions etc, they haven’t lost anything yet unless they decide to sell now that the stock price has dipped (maybe some people did, too bad.). You don’t gain or loose till you buy/sell… all that other stuff is virtual. It is only fear and uncertainty of the entire situation that has caused the prices to dip in all these countries. It should surely rebound after however long it takes them to clean up the mess, and investors that hold on may not have lost anything but the opportunity cost of the money they invested, inflation , factoring how long it takes to rebound etc, but even then who said it may not rebound higher to the extent that those losses are null. It takes bulls & bears. I bet you some people are taking advantage of these price dips as we speak.
It is not a crash, just market fluctuation driven by fear and sentiment. I’m a true optimist.