Stats: 3,177,926 members, 7,903,018 topics. Date: Saturday, 27 July 2024 at 10:24 PM |
Nairaland Forum / Nameo's Profile / Nameo's Posts
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kevclin: Our concern is Presidential elections Bros. Even the PDP Gov is not really enthusiastic about Atiku. LP will now likely win Taraba. It will almost certainly get 25% in that state 1 Like |
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HIGHESTPOPORI: Yes |
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garfield1: Garfield my fwend, i really do not have the time for a meaningless "argument". If after reading that document(including the part i clearly snapped for you) and you believe what you believe, then no problem o. Your "reality". And thats fine by me |
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garfield1: Na wa o Some of una like to dey argue sha, just for argument sake. But the info is on the linked document in the OP na.
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garfield1: They went to different LGAs in a state. Van tou go and read their methodology again. By the way, Nextier conducted their own polling specifically in rural areas about 2 months ago, and the result was still the same: Obi led the field. Make una just dey play |
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Johnnyessence: Which kind yeye Vice President be that? Obi is winning Taraba |
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garfield1: Background of what? Cos they specifically said they went to various LGs during the course of the polling. Except you know of why Rivers was different |
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Emir01: There are actually lots of Ondo residents/indigenes that support Obi. Apart from Lagos(which Obi may likely win slightly), he may get his next highest vote from Ondo. Obi has really penetrated Yorubas. This is the main reason APC guys became afraid of Obi. Tinubu may still the SW but there will be no block votes for him. 165 Likes 13 Shares |
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garfield1: Where did you get this info?? |
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BluntTheApostle: Thanks 3 Likes 2 Shares |
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BluntTheApostle: Ok. Here: https://bantupage.com/bantupage-polling-methodology/ 2 Likes |
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BluntTheApostle: Lolz.... they clearly stated that they used ramdom sampling(that was even also weighted) to get their sample size for the respondents to the poll. Random sampling does not depend on the method used to administerbor get the info from the respondents of a poll. Whether it is by a written questionnaire or through a telephone or through a face to face interview(as in this case) etc, the method does not negate or deflate the sampling of the poll if it is random ab initio. Do i really need to explain all these to you |
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garfield1: Ok...lets see whether the resources of Tinubu would be greater than the Determination of Nigerians later this month. February is here already 1 Like |
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BluntTheApostle: Please click the link to the page of bantupage at OP and you can see the methodology. You can also do same for NOI/ANAP and others. |
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garfield1: Your comment here is anecdoctal and emotional and i choose not to futher debate it 1 Like |
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garfield1: But LP is actually the opposition party in this election. Do you know how effective the APCPDP narrative have been in this campaign. People dont see PDP as the alternative to APC or vice versa, the narrative is that you should vote LP if you dont want to vote APCPDP. And you are right, just like i said previously, most "undecides" and "undisclosed" usually vote for the OPPOSITION in elections. 1 Like |
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garfield1: Yea, but you guys forget something very important: there are actually more SE voters outside the zone than there are voters from other zones outside their zones. If Igbos choose to vote in this elections, a lot of you will understand why they are not just one of the 3 major ethnic groups in Nigeria but are arguably the most dispersed ethnic group in Nigeria. Once Igbos come out to vote, some of you will realise how very powerful they are in Nigeria 1 Like |
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garfield1: You are right that Obi's lead is reducing and we are seeing that from some other polls too. But that is to be expected as poll numbers usually close up towards the elections. But my point here is that Obi, who should clearly be the underdog in the race, have been consistently leading the pack since the beginning of the polling. That is absolutely incredible and something that should tell the legacy parties a good lesson if they are smart. Moreover, whilst we may not know how the "undecides" will eventually vote or even if they will vote at all, most "undecides" if they vote usually do not vote for the party in power (which is why they may not have made up their minds or refusing to say who they will vote yet). But like i said previously, they may determine the outcome of the elections if they vote cos their numbers are significant. We will just wait and see |
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BluntTheApostle: You are just speaking too much grammar but not fooling anyone. And you also do not have any idea about whom you are reaponding to here. Random Sampling is at the heart of scientific pooling, and it is good that you mentioned it. That is the most important factor that reduces any statistical bias in any polling. And it was used in this particular polling. But further, if you took a look at the methodology of the polling here, other factors like weighted sampling was also used. It is as scientific as it goes. Moreover, the results here generally aligns with the results of other scientific polls done by other bodies, including trends seen over time. There is no reason to doubt the results except a stronger statistical reason is given. And the reason cannot be the "feeling" of a random chap on Nairaland. |
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garfield1: Yea, you re right. The margins for this particular polls is small. But the outcome of this elections(if we are to follow this polling results) would be determined by the significant number of "undecides" and "Non-disclosers" in the actual elections. These 2 demographics have also consistently been high across all the scientific polls done PS: That Obi, who basically started this race a s a virtual "independent candidate " and the one with "no structures" is still leading in these polls at this time is very very significant. 3 Likes 1 Share |
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BluntTheApostle: Bantu, NOI, Nextier etc are scientific polls. What are you talking about? Do you know what scientific polling is?? 4 Likes |
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PeterObi4LP: Well, even tho they are urchinns are mostly useless, we do not want them to commit suicide please. Ferocious crying (their tears) and heart attack is enough biko |
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BluntTheApostle: ALL the scientific polls (and most of the unscientific polls e.g on youtube) are saying that Obi is in the lead and can win. Repeat: ALL of them are consistent in saying the same thing. But an inconsequential "commenter" on a faceless forum (NL) is saying Obi cannot win. February is this month. All these nonsense will stop 6 Likes |
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Numan, Yola, Mubi Very smart and strategic move by Obi For those that knows.... 1 Like |
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APC and PDP don find find find any and every dirts on Peter Obi but to no avail. Na useless rumour on "luxury" for Obi house dem come dey discuss, lolz. Obi na man you be!! 36 Likes 5 Shares |
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maasoap: Brother, LP is winning the election. It is visible to the Blind; audible to the deaf. Even the foooolish are already acknowledging it. |
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maasoap: But you were the one who said it yoursef, not me. You said that people who usually do not vote, those who dont belong to a political party and the new voters, are for LP. That is 3 categories of people/voters. You said that in your comment. I was only pointing out that the average turnout for last elections was around 30%( meaning those that didnt vote but are registered are just under 70%- the vast majority of registered voters). When you add the number of voters who do not belong to any political party like you said(who cannot be less than 85% or even 90% of registered voters) and majority of the newly registered voters (about 9 million), you will agree with me that the majority of voters are actually for LP(according to you). You see why i said you played an own goal yourself. But the good thing is that you are right. LP has the majority of prospective voters this time around, which is one of the reasons ALL scientific (and most unscientific) polls conducted so far has placed him as the leading candidate. That is why he is on the lips of everyone, including his opponents. Once again, you are very correct Bros Happy Sunday |
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maasoap: I hope you know that people who usually dont vote(about 70%) and people who do not belong to any party(>85%) are the vast majority of voters in Nigeria. Add that to 1st time voters this time around, and you yourself just said that all these 3 categories "are LP".a You are right o!!! But i hope you know you just scored an own goal with that you comment sha ![]() |
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Very interesting times |
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Vinnie2000: Me too I can never vote for Atiku or Tinubu under any circumstance. I want a complete change of the current system in Nigeria(which is why i am voting Obi and cannot vote those other 2 persons) I might have voted for Kwankawaso tho if the current 8 yrs President is not also from the north 2 Likes |
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Well at least the one thing is that i went to the facebook page of this "Islamic scholar" i.e where he posted it, and almost all of the Northern Muslims who commented came down hard on him. Very hard actually. In fact, i didnt see anyone in support of him. See ehn, this elections will be interesting. People are really tired! |
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Buddha3: Amen Lolz |
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