garfield1:
Apc is busy campaigning ward to ward in all nooks and crannies of ss and someone will claim that lp that is only in the cities will clear ss.nonsense

In your ignorance you don't even know that those who have conducted opinion polls in the SS, they did that both in the urban areas and the rural areas of the SS.
How was rochas okorocha able to use APGA to win governorship election in IMO state, where his party didn't had any structure there in 2007?
How was Adams oshiomole able to use ACN to win the governorship election in Edo state where the party had no structure there in 2007?
God did not created we humans as robot, but created us as people who can think and reason. Ribadu ACN of 2011 was not even able to get up to 25% of votes in Edo state

As for me from the video I watched, the turn out was impressive, Peter obi used a smaller venue for security reasons, where his crowd of supporters follow him there, he may win in Ogun state

They are people who are underrating the chances of Peter obi in the NW and NE, because of how he has perform in the NW and NE opinion polls, but then we also need to understand that the % of people who decided not to participate in some of those opinion polls is higher than those who decided to participate in them, which is to show that Peter obi in reality may perform better than those opinion polls. GEJ for example perform poorly against buhari in the opinion polls conducted in some of the states in the north, but GEJ silent supporters who don't make too much of noise in the social media give him the needed 25% of votes in the day of election. The same thing could happen for Peter obi, where his silent supporters may come out to give him 25% of votes or even higher % of votes there. I just noticed that Peter obi is the first Igbo presidential candidate that has been well received by the hausa and Fulani in the north. Below are some of the comments in nairaland when GEJ went to campaign in the north

I've noticed that they are desperate politicians who are trying to use the rural area of a state to get as many votes as possible, thinking that people in those rural areas don't know about the presidential candidate of other party. As for me they are just deceiving themselves because Nigerian in most of the rural areas in the different states already know the top 4 presidential candidates

The LP members in the NW and the NE have been successful in matching PDP and APC in campaigning for Peter obi both in the urban and rural areas there. That is the reason why you have seen massive crowd in Peter obi campaign in the NW and the NE. As it stands now, Peter obi is likely to win some states in the NW and NE and get 25% of votes in the remaining states

Felimax:


That is the ideology and dynamism a whole lot of you don't understand and it weeps me to see how difficult it is for you guys to see it.

Like ordinary common sense will tell. The crowd you see in most of the rallies and colours are as a result of the level of structure in those places. The people you see are of different groups within the party that represents different candidate vying for different offices state wide.

Funny enough if you think the structure of a party is very important in winning in a state, then Atiku PDP should forgot about the 2023 presidential election, because BAT APC has better structure than PDP in most of the states in Nigeria.
Have you asked yourself this question, why PDP is divided in Delta State?
It's because the governorship candidate of APC is better than the governorship candidate of PDP.
I'm not from Delta State, but from the comments I have read here, I think Peter obi has massive supporters in Delta State. Opinion polls both offline and online poll that has been conducted in Delta State can confirm this, I'll agree with Peter obi when he considers party structure to be structure of criminality

She stands a good chance to win

sapele914:
No presence of Peter Obi in Delta or Edo State, only social media rhetoric noise making, all them States are fully pdp controlled zombie states.

The admin of nairaland almost ban me because of this post. The way the people of those 2 state will vote in the presidential election, it'll be different from the way they will vote in the governorship election. Party structure will not matter that much, that is why the top 4 presidential candidate are going to win in states that are not control by their party

PDP, APC and NNPP pumutation and projections on Peter obi chances in the SS is based on a conspiracy theory that the way a person from the SE think is different from the way a person from the SS thinks, but the reality on ground is that the SS is more united in voting for Peter obi than the SE. Peter obi may not get block vote in some of the state in the SE. It'll be easier for Atiku and BAT to get 25% of votes in 2 or 3 states in the SE, than for Atiku and BAT to get 25% of votes in any of the state in the SS. When you look at states like Abia, Ebonyi and Imo, you will understand my point. Peter obi will win every state in the SS with a wide margin

Antihypocrite:
Seun come and say the truth. How much did you receive to put this on front page.

I remember how u came on twitter crying that politicians were threatening to destroy nairaland if you didn't comply with them.


I'm sure this is the fruit.

As for me I think if Atiku win in any state in the SS, that will be one of the biggest upset in Nigeria election history, because when you come to think of this, the social media movement for the 3rd force started in the SS, and in some part of the SW like Lagos, Ogun and Oyo state

What I understand here is that they did not conducted a direct opinion polls were they asked questions on which president you want to vote for, but ask different questions and compare it with others

BAT presidency will be like a buhari 3rd term presidency. For Atiku presidency I don't expect the problem of security to be solved because of his soft landing to the bandits and the Fulani herds men. We can expect looting and money laundering in both Atiku and BAT presidency.

Is this not the same north where million of people have already sold their PVC to desperate politicians, this is to show that the 2023 presidential election may have a low voters turn out, security challenge will also be a factor of that

The votes kwankwaso and Peter obi can boost of in every state in the NW and NE range from:100000-1.5M
They is something I have discovered on how the NW and NE play their politics, which is that they have the highest number of party membership, from 10000-500000.
The problem there is that of party loyalty. That is why they are members in PDP and members in APC that will vote for presidential candidate from a different party. This explains why MKO was able to win Today in Kano in the 1993 presidential election, because a greater % of Tofa party members decided to vote for MKO, and also explain why buhari was able to win OBJ and GEJ there. They is that possibility that kwankwaso and Peter obi will be 1st & 2nd in Kano and also perform well in places like sokoto, katsina and kebbi, because of the votes they will get from APC and PDP members there. If we have seen massive crowd in kwankwaso campaign rally in the north, we can also expect to see massive crowd in Peter obi campaign in the NW and NE

My pumutation and projection will be based on election data of 2003 and 2011
2003 presidential election;
Nasarawa state:
PDP:470936
ANPP:244005

Niger state:
ANPP:390103
PDP:486621

2011 presidential election;
Niger state:
PDP:321429
CPC:652574
Nasarawa state:
PDP:408997
CPC:278390
From the election data, you will see that Christian presidential candidate from the south have won in Nasarawa state. Nasarawa state is made of Nasarawa north, where kwankwaso,BAT and atiku are popular there. Peter obi has had some level of success in penetrating Nasarawa north. Peter obi is very popular in Nasarawa south where people there are mostly christians. Peter obi should win Nasarawa state with a narrow margin
From the data above, you will also see that both presidential candidate from the north and south has won in Niger state, I think any of the top 4 presidential candidate stand a good chance to win in Niger state

sapele914:
No presence of Peter Obi in Delta or Edo State, only social media rhetoric noise making, all them States are fully pdp controlled zombie states.

But I don't think the structure of a party will matter that much, or else one will just say that Atiku will win all state that PDP control in the NW, NE, NC, SE and SS and BAT will also win every state that their party control. Remember a party like CPC in 2011 had no structure but was able to win in States

duro4chang:
What do you mean by unpopular candidate?

What I mean is that in 2019 election, people wanted younger presidential candidate

I didn't include the 2011 data, because by then inec had not added changes to the voting system.
In the 2015 presidential election:
The total number of registered voters in Delta State was 1.3M, the total number of registered voters in Rivers State was 1.6M
In the 2019 presidential election:
The total number of registered voters in Delta State was 815360, the total number of registered voters in Rivers State was 624681

I think the reason for voters lower turn out in 2019 was because of two unpopular candidates in the APC and PDP. With Peter obi being the 3rd force presidential candidate of LP, they is that possibility that the obidient in Delta State and Rivers State will come out massively to vote for Peter obi in the day of election

Have you people ever asked yourself this question why Peter obi goes to visit traditional rulers in the SW, NW and NE?
Because by doing so, he will be helping to increase his presence in the urban and rural area there, for example when people in those areas watch Peter obi visit to the traditional rulers in their local TV and radio station, many people there will come to know that Peter obi is the 3rd force presidential candidate of the LP

Opinion polls is something that changes, they was a time in the month of September that Peter obi was leading BAT in the SW, another opinion polls in the month of November, did say that BAT is leading Peter obi in the SW. We might not know how they conducted those opinion polls in any of the LGA of a SW state

BAT can't win Peter obi in Lagos State and Ogun state. Those opinion polls that has predicted BAT to win Peter obi in Lagos and in Ogun, are fake opinion polls that was not conducted probably, was done with an imaginary guess work of projection. After all most of the opinion, the total number of people who have participated range from 1000-5000, how opinion polls like this is conducted matter much. When you look at the governor of Lagos State, you will see that he is not sure of winning the second term, where LP and PDP are getting stronger and the governor of Ogun state is not sure of winning the second term where PDP governorship candidate is getting stronger there.
If we look at the SW, Oyo state will be closer contest between Peter obi and BAT, Atiku in 3rd position. Osun state will be a closer contest between BAT and Atiku, while Peter obi in 3rd position

The Batified are new to Nigeria politics, that is why you see them with their 419 prediction on how Peter obi is going to perform in the SW. If the they were yorubas in the SW that voted for the presidential candidate of APGA in 2003 that was not even popular among Nigerian, how much more of a Peter obi that is very popular among Nigerian