In actual fact, all the response in this forum is quite impressive. But i have little analysis to make and i believe it will go a long way in assisting any prospective investor to make a good decision.

BEWARE OF SHENANIGHAN ACCOUNTING.

Let me remind you that sometimes ago, Access Bank did REVERSE SPLIT where share price were doubled and the No of shares reduced!

The logic behind this is that, the bank had the decision of going to market and as at that time the share price was about N6.5k per unit of share. With this lower price, the bank would not be able to raise required fund at the DESIRED PRICE by the management!

Hence, the decision to embark on REVERSE SPLIT which now bring about ARTIFICIAL increase in the price of stock to N13.00 Most investors were not aware of this and people started rushing the share thinking that the price appreciated for N6.5 to N13. In effect, forces of Demand and Supply push the price to N19 or thereabout.-------------------------------

Reason for all this, is that the share of the company is OVER PRICED,  (i have the proof but could not post it)

Secondly, the Bank does not believe in its FUTURE PROFIT GENERATION. This is evidence from the recent QUALIFIED financial statement of the bank. The auditors Report was QUALIFIED 'EXCEPT FOR'--- The detail is that, the Goodwill according to Law is supposed to be written off over 5yrs, Access Bank management embarked on SHENANIGHAN because the future is not too bright and decided to write off the expenses now as against yearly written off which will have negative impact on the Below the line result posted for those year. (I Have detailed report of the analysis).

While comparing this with the projected profit and loss of the bank for the next five years,-------- Reverse the ONE-TIME charge of Goodwill and spread it against the projected earnings for the next five years, you will come to conclusion that ----------------- May God help investors in this country.

In a nutshell, ACCESS BANK SHARE IS NOT A GOOD BUY!

Goodday all

Sheun, u're great!

@ANALYST

Your comment are very instructive but pray tell us why is it that all the banks are creating funds by increasing ordinary shares and what will be the effect on future share prices.

otokx:

@ANALYST

Your comment are very instructive but pray tell us why is it that all the banks are creating funds by increasing ordinary shares and what will be the effect on future share prices.

otokx, actually his comments are very DESTRUCTIVE! A split or reverse split have ZERO meaning to any knowledgeable investor and don't add/subtract add value. Companies use them only to control the amount of outstanding shares.

Let's use his Access examples. If I bought 1 million shares @ N6.5, my investment is worth N6.5M. After the reverse split, I now have 500k shares worth N13. Guess what? I still have a N6.5M naira investment! If someone thinks Access' price has doubled, then he/she needs to get financially literate. Companies do splits (which for some reason we like to call bonuses) and reverse splits to manage the share price in a range people are comfortable with. Take the example of Warren Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway; they have never done a stock split/bonus issue and the stock is now worth ~ $100K. Yes you read it right. 1 share is $100k. Would you pay for that? Microsoft shares would be worth 10s of $k if not for repeated stock splits aimed at keeping the price in the 10s of $ instead. If Access wanted to raise a N100B, they could easily have offered 20B shares @ N5 ea.

The only proof mr Analyst should provide is a comparison of future earnings of Access to other banks/companies on the NSE. Let's see if Access is going to provide more/less ROI for us than, say, my beloved GTBank.  He needs to post hard numbers and incomplete sentences.

I'm not in love with Access, I just hate to see people twisting numbers.

Easimoni,

Thanx alot, i love people like u.

U know what we are saying here has nothing to do with Bonus or Split, and i did not confirm to you from my analysis that Reverse Split has any effect on the financial statement of the Bank, but rather, i hope you will agree with me that NSE is not an efficient Market where information relating to a stock will have too much effect on the prices of the stock. What most of the NSE participant are after is the increase in the share price without looking back to what actually led to the increase!

My arguments was that the bank management understand the market and play it to reap people off their fund. WHAT THEY ARE SELLING IN OVER PRICED!

Simple arithmetic here is bring back the reverse split into its original price of------- N6.5. apply the potential growth rate after the reverse split price of N13 to N6.5 the value you will get is far less than what they are selling!

Well, don't let me bother you too much with computation. But, the bank is trying to play on investors intelligent-------------- WATCH OUT! And save this discussion for future references, u will then agree with me.

I believe in the doctrine of CAVEAT EMPTOR!

@ Analyst, now I agree with you. If the bank exploits the investing public's lack of financial education, that's the public's fault and not the bank's. As per overpriced, forward PE does not look tooooooooo bad. Maybe not too overpriced, just a little.

@ Analyst

If you have proof of shenanigan accounting, pls bring it into the open. Because apart from that, the prospectus shows very good prospects for the offer.

I will take a share reconstruction anyday as long as it increases the value of my holdings.

I never really liked access bank - simply because the mgt are cut throat guys and believe me I know what im yarning. Was in the Banking industry for over 7 years.

I actually thot the boys at the top had plans for that Bank , but so far I have not seen any outstanding performance - all na talk. Things might change but I wont be buying Access.

Although, on hindsight I did not buy First Inland as well, if I had when I was leaving the bank I would have left with over 500% gain, tough luck.

It taught me a lesson - Hr policies or ethics of an organization doesnt mean you cant make serious money from investing in the org.

But I still have my personal sentiments

End of rant!!!

Temmie10:


I will take a share reconstruction anyday as long as it increases the value of my holdings.

It's certainly better for a savvy investor than a share split/bonus.

yodiyokun-I have moral issues with the whole access bank financial statement and have done so since my dear friends took over.
But if my object is to make money in the very short term then I have personally jumped off my moral high ground and was advised to purchase as my objective is for good returns in the shortest term.
BUY but SELL fast ,do not wait for more than a =N=5 appreciation

otokx:

@ANALYST

Your comment are very instructive but pray tell us why is it that all the banks are creating funds by increasing ordinary shares and what will be the effect on future share prices.

Thanx my brother,

I hope you will agree with me that for banks business there is nothing like ECONOMIC SCALE but reverse is the case-- DISECONOMIC OF SCALE. The larger bank grow the higher the cost of OPERATION.

Hope you will recall that shortly after the initial IPO of banks, most of them went for expansion in term of operation, this increases the required working capital for the smooth running of their businesses which was not adequately taking care of by their project appraisals------ This shortfalls nearly collapse some banks--- e.g ZENITH BANK (I know most people will react to this-- but the fact are there for those that has ears & eyes to see). Zenith bank initial IPO was over subscribed and the bank went on rampage to increase branch network, Asset Construction without considering Working Capital and this was the reason for its Second IPO which came less than a year of its first IPO. One should have asked, why the rushing to the market again after splendid performance in its first IPO. But, most Nigerians are after Growth. After this second IPO all the major construction stopped and the bank learnt in Hard way, had it been, investors have access to this information, only God knows what could have happened to the bank.

Your question is well taking care of, they increase SHAREHOLDER fund to increase the Working Capital Ratio!

Pls, find the Financial statement of any that has gone for Second IPO work out the working capital ratio before and after the IPO. The answer is there for you to judge.

Good day!

yodiyokun:

I never really liked access bank - simply because the mgt are cut throat guys and believe me I know what im yarning. Was in the Banking industry for over 7 years.

I actually thot the boys at the top had plans for that Bank , but so far I have not seen any outstanding performance - all na talk. Things might change but I wont be buying Access.

olofinjeje:

yodiyokun-I have moral issues with the whole access bank financial statement and have done so since my dear friends took over.

na wa o!

you guys shld shed more light!: 'not seen any outstanding performance - all na talk'?? for novices like me, the financial stm looks good. can you PLEASE expantiate??

'I have moral issues with the whole access bank financial statement ' - are they pulling the wool over our eyes? pls give concrete details.

If you have worked within Financial control, treasury or audit of these banks, you will know that a lot of times financial statements are manipulated. I really dont want to expose too much here.
The banks that do a lot of manipulation are managed by unethical guys - you dont want to buy their stock for keeps; buy and sell them fast like hot potato.
The banks that run a tight ship and that have a legacy to protect like GTB, UBA, FBN and Union, Oceanic, FCMB-- they are for keeps.

I dont like Zenith simply because they are yet to prove they can handle succession. Jim Ovia has been on that sit for too long and he has not made plans to groom anyone for that position. Everyone around him is a "figure head". If he goes down today - we are not sure the success of the Bank will continue at the same pace.

FCMB and Oceanic have been through hell and high water in the last 5 years, they have pulled through marvellously and have strong succession planning.
Tony Elumelu is slowing releasing the reins and things are looking good.

Any money I have now is going into WEMA - that stock is very much undervalued and the Bank has a lot of potential (if they eventually wake up from their ti wan ti wan slumber).

Apart from the hard core Financial analysis, we should have feelers in this industry to understand what is going on behind the scenes that can affect the our investments.

yodiyokun:

If you have worked within Financial control, treasury or audit of these banks, you will know that a lot of times financial statements are manipulated. I really don't want to expose too much here.
The banks that do a lot of manipulation are managed by unethical guys - you don't want to buy their stock for keeps; buy and sell them fast like hot potato.
The banks that run a tight ship and that have a legacy to protect like GTB, UBA, FBN and Union, Oceanic, FCMB-- they are for keeps.

I don't like Zenith simply because they are yet to prove they can handle succession. Jim Ovia has been on that sit for too long and he has not made plans to groom anyone for that position. Everyone around him is a "figure head". If he goes down today - we are not sure the success of the Bank will continue at the same pace.

FCMB and Oceanic have been through hell and high water in the last 5 years, they have pulled through marvellously and have strong succession planning.
Tony Elumelu is slowing releasing the reins and things are looking good.

Any money I have now is going into WEMA - that stock is very much undervalued and the Bank has a lot of potential (if they eventually wake up from their ti wan ti wan slumber).

Apart from the hard core Financial analysis, we should have feelers in this industry to understand what is going on behind the scenes that can affect the our investments.

I quite agree with you my brother!

My previous analysis is not from heaven, is because i have being priviledge to audit most of this banks and know what is really going on behind the scene.

@ yodiyokun, welcome to Nairaland. E be like say you and me na kindred spirits. I too like your gist!

olofinjeje:

yodiyokun-I have moral issues with the whole access bank financial statement and have done so since my dear friends took over.
But if my object is to make money in the very short term then I have personally jumped off my moral high ground and was advised to purchase as my objective is for good returns in the shortest term.
BUY but SELL fast ,do not wait for more than a =N=5 appreciation

Now that is the KOKO. I myself just bought a few. Will sell after I get >N5

Hi all,

I had a major issue with Access Bank coming up with another public offer especially how they came about the price and the issue of the share reconstruction.

As a regular investor in the market, I decided not to buy access when it comes out, not to talk of touching it with a pole. The discuss here as confirmed it until i cam across the IBTC report. A friend also passed to me athe proshare analysis report.

i can now see the point about the reconstruction and how one can continue to make money from the stock and others. in fact, i now know how to look at reconstructions in case other banks or quoted company is going to do one.

Guys, it is the bomb. After reading the Analyst Report, I have decided to buy Access Bank, big time. It is a good buy with good prospectives.

Good job proshare and lead capital, investors need more of you.

@ lolobo

If you are interested in Purchasing access bank shares please contact me and I can get the Application forms across to you.


I work in a stockbrocking company called Citi Investment Capital we are located at 47a Glover Road Ikoyi. We are one of the recieving agents to the offer. Looking forward to hearing from you.

@ lolobo,
you got analysis from Lead Capital ? Wonders will never end! Did you have to ask? because your brother no get anythin!

@Analyst

What is your opinion on the REIT being offered by SKYE bank?

what happening 2 dangote flour

'CAVEAT EMPTOR!'
The simple rule above is warning buyer
Serach for the information and hold to the truth

Analyst, Good guide, Buyer beware!!!!!!

thanks all for the wonderful information you all have drop. i have never read any topic in total as i read this since i can to this forum and i know its becos of the way you all have shown maturity. anywhay i still need so education with this stock of a thing. Access will be my first or i mean is my 1st cos i have got some already and i was thinking of getting more but all i want to do is a short team biz. so the profs i will be needing you help. you can send me materials or even you number and i will call ya. thank you all once again. teddyfaces@yahoo.com

Analysts,
Its so unfortunate and almost shameful to read your take on access bank.Nairaland is a public forum like you know.I think one will only be doing the normal thing by checking and double checking one's posting for 2 reasons.one,so that one will not misinform vulnerable people.Two,so that one will not disgrace oneself(think of a sane person dancing in a village square unaware that his zip is undone and his manhood is exposed).You have just done both.
Access bank did their share reconstruction in october 2006 when their shares were trading at N3.00K and the stock was re listed on thursday october 26 2006 at N6.00.I bought some units at N3 and some at N6.77 after the share reconstruction.I dont know where you were when the price was moving between your N6.50 and N13.00.
Im not joining issues with you on how desirable or otherwise access bank is but i care about the quality of information you put into the public domain.Why?Because this is a very good forum that a lot of people rely on for information.Pls dont make guesses.
I dont really know why Easimoni did not find this out.
I think seun should make effort to ban people like analyst.

wow,thats good news about access bank shares but i have something more urgent, would like guys to be weary of this site, cant really say how genuine it is but you can check it out,

www.sfimg.com

an online international marketing site where new affiliates are placed under old members,

just discovered that i and a friend had the same number and same set of people placed under us.

do check it out

This has been quite an educative discourse. And to know that a lot of people are ignorant about the basic information to look out for when investing is not an excuse.

We all need to spend some time in finding out the facts which will guide your decisions. And I think that was what proshare set out to achieve in raising such an interesting discourse to enlighten us, get people's views.

I have gone through the Access Bank Analyst report on the Proshare website, which can be downloaded. It is quite a detailed anaysis of the Access Bank stock. I think you guys should go through the report and then make your decision. Dont be moved by hear-say. You have to be a wise investor so you dont get your fingers burnt.

http://www.proshareng.com/reportcentral/analyst_reports.php

Action, get Access Bank shares today! Contact me by email if you are interested in buying access bank.

lolobo:

This has been quite an educative discourse. And to know that a lot of people are ignorant about the basic information to look out for when investing is not an excuse.

We all need to spend some time in finding out the facts which will guide your decisions. And I think that was what proshare set out to achieve in raising such an interesting discourse to enlighten us, get people's views.

I have gone through the Access Bank Analyst report on the Proshare website, which can be downloaded. It is quite a detailed anaysis of the Access Bank stock. I think you guys should go through the report and then make your decision. Dont be moved by hear-say. You have to be a wise investor so you don't get your fingers burnt.

http://www.proshareng.com/reportcentral/analyst_reports.php

Action, get Access Bank shares today! Contact me by email if you are interested in buying access bank.

Hahaha now u're marketing lol.

Every offer is hyped by th epeople marketing it duh,

Temmie10:

Hahaha now u're marketing lol.

Every offer is hyped by th epeople marketing it duh,

Abi oh! Didn't they tell us to buy All States back in the day.

lolobo

Only 2 posts? This dude is marketing,

We should earn to appreciate good things when we see one.

I am not marketing but wanting to create an opportunity for you guys out there to make money.

For those who read through the Access bank prospectus have you noticed that there is $18M convertible loan and N13.5B redeemable convertible bond on the balance sheet. So what is significant about this? 25% of the loan and 25% of the convertible can be converted to ordinary shares if the creditors so desire which means that for argument sake if this were to be the case there will millions if not billions of shares listed and the EPS nose dives so may want to factor that into your projections.

Also when calculating your EPS take into consideration that the dividend payment to preference share holders is usually subtracted from the PAT and this will also impact the figures you arrive at for your EPS

abeg
all of you wey dey stress una selves
i joined www.antonioshares.com
and i cycled out
many of these options are too expensive
plus how many people get dat much cash and you have to start looking for people

Got this on e-mail,

ACCESS BANK

INVESTMENT RISKS (To the Price Target/Recommendati on)

Financial Shenanigans: The bank is alleged to be “cooking the books” in its desperate
quest to tell a particular story and to attract investors to its offer and raise its status within
the banking industry in Nigeria and its subsequent appeal to foreign and domestic
investors. The bank received a “qualified” annual report due to the way it handled the
goodwill on its books. We adjusted their post-tax profit downward to reflect this
contravention of accounting standards. We are also highly concerned as to how the bank
was able to almost double its post-tax profit (88.33%) from its nine-month cumulative
result to the full-year result (N3.23 billion to N6.083 billion.) The bank has not yet been
able to explain this till date and we feel that yet to be fully ascertained maneuvers were
utilized to generate this sudden turnaround.

The Audit Committee of Access Bank is not a standing committee and has the Managing
Director and the Deputy Managing Director as members! This is totally out of line and
proves further that the “maneuvering” starts at the top.

We have reviewed quite a couple of company forecasts and we are amazed and alarmed
at the extent of the unwarranted optimism expressed by the company given its forecasts.
In addition, the reporting accountants emphasize that “the forecast information is not
intended to, and does not, provide all the information and disclosures necessary to give a
fair presentation of the results of the operations of the Bank in accordance with Nigerian
Statements of Accounting Standards” – PwC.

Market price manipulation: Access Bank’s price suddenly took an aggressive spike
two months to its date of suspension moving from N11.69 to N19.32 (a rise of 65.26%), a
move unprecedented given the time frame, ignoring the artificial increase of 100% due to
the share reconstruction. We believe the sudden steep price movement soon before the
technical suspension was placed is not due to “random” market forces but the bank and
its cronies buying up their shares in excess of the daily supply.

Reckless business decisions: The management of the bank has in the recent past
taken some reckless decisions in their quest to grow inorganically. These acts brought
losses to the bank and its shareholders; the bank last year tried unsuccessfully to acquire
Afribank through a hostile takeover. The bank was forced by the regulatory authorities to
sell the acquired shares at a loss. The bank also tried unsuccessfully to buy up Union
Bank. Access Bank management is definitely not comfortable with their current position
in the Nigerian banking industry; this is a good thing. The approaches they are willing to
take to become BIG overnight is what should give potential investors sleepless nights.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This message contains confidential information and is intended only for the individual named. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately by e-mail if you have received this e-mail by mistake and delete this e-mail from your system. E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message, which arise as a result of e-mail transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version.
The information herein represents the views of ARM Investment Managers and its subsidiary company, ARM Trustees Limited, on asset management, financial advisory and trusteeship services. ARM and its subsidiary are regulated by the Nigerian Securities & Exchange Commission.The registered office of ARM is at 1 Mekunwen Street , Off Oyinkan Abayomi, P.O. Box 55765 , Ikoyi, Lagos . Telephone: 234 -1-2692097, 2692976. www.arm.com. ng

Interesting but strange as I got this mail below a day after the one above from the authors CSL. What is could be going here or is there more to it than CSL is letting out?

RE: EQUITY REPORT ON ACCESS BANK PLC

We write to withdraw the Equity Research Publication dated 14th August 2007 prepared by Jude Fejokwu and published without the authorization of CSL Stockbrokers Limited.

The contents of the report are incorrect, unfounded and without basis. Indeed the entire report is entirely attributable to the writer and in the professional opinion of CSL Stockbrokers does not represent in any way the true position of affairs of Access Bank Plc. We urge you to please disregard the report in its entirety.

CSL Stockbrokers Limited admits regrettably that the report was not vetted or reviewed in line with our internal practice before publication by the writer. This unfortunate breakdown has brought significant embarrassment to our firm’s reputation built over several years.

Our institution is particularly embarrassed as Access Bank Plc is a prized client for CSL Stockbrokers Limited and indeed the entire FCMB Group.

FCMB Capital Market is one of the Issuing Houses/Underwriters and CSL Stockbrokers is a stockbroker to Access Bank’s on-going successful public offer. Our Group endorses totally the credibility of the Bank, its Board of Directors and Management Team and will in no way allow their exemplary efforts at establishing a First Class Bank to be diminished by a “rogue” analyst.

The said analyst has since been summarily dismissed from the employment of CSL and steps will be taken to ensure that there is no re-occurrence of this unfortunate event.

We have and continue to apologize to the Bank and all its shareholders for our mistake. The correct report on Access Bank Plc will be published within the current week.

Once again we regret any inconvenience caused by this report.


Thank you.