Yesterday, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) declares that he has informed PMB of his ambition to run for Nigeria's president. As a northerner informed, to an extent, about the contemporary dynamics of northern Nigerian politics, what do I think about BAT's chances in light of the preveiling variables?

1. BAT AND THE APC TICKET.

Almost all those believed to have interests in contesting for the presidency in 2023 under the APC platforms are southerners. BAT, Yemi Osinbajo, Kayode Fayemi, Kalu Uzor, you name them. This means that it is highly probable that APC will field a southern Nigerian candidate. If this is the case, BAT has the highest chance of clinching the ticket because none of the other contestants can match him financially, tactically and structurally. So, let us assume that BAT gets the APC ticket.

Now, how can we assess his chances of winning the general elections? Well it all depends on who the PDP fields as its candidate.

2. BAT AND THE PDP CANDIDATE.

Calculative and cunning, the PDP has left the question of who and from where it'll pick its presidential candidate come 2023 open for speculation. This is tactically wise given that this decision has important implications over which party wins the 2023 presidential election. I shall return to the reasons for this conclusion shortly.

Guessing as to where the PDP will pick its candidate from, let us assume that it fiends Atiku Abubakar (AA). This is going to be a tough nut for BAT's and his promoters to crack. Two reasons account for this conclusion. The first pertains to the capacity and capabilities of Atiku in terms of having both the financial war chest and the tactical acumen to match BAT naira for naira, dollar for dollar and shege for shege. The second reason is external to the personalities and parties of both BAT and AA and relates to the prevailing mood in the North and the voting patterns in other regions.

Currently, there is a high level disenchantment with the APC in the North and this cuts across both the elites (who are angry for not being carried along) and the peasantry (who are hungry for not being able to feed). In fact, both elites and peasantry in the North feel that although the current administration has given key positions to the North, and to a large extent, succeded in confining the activities of BH to the fringes of Lake Chad, yet important capital intensive projects appeared to have been overly concentrated in the South especially the South West (Lagos-Ibadan axis). Putting disgruntled northern elites and hungry and dissatisfied peasantry together presents a region that is more likely to stick to the age old dictum that "blood is thicker than water". But BAT's foot soldiers can minimise the impact of this advantage by countering that the North has stayed at the bank of the Aso River for long but has been consigned to washing its hands with the spittle of poverty, de-industrializatioon, and other issues: hence, its not all that glitters that's gold. However, AA has been aiming for the villa for long and now appear to have the sympathies of many who are likely to reason along the line, " Lets try this man and see". But a BAT candidacy may also have the backing of the outgoing president Buhari which can maximize his strengths and minimise his weaknesses.

In the event that the PDP fields a Tambuwal or any other northern candidate, such candidate cannot match BAT financially and tactically but other extra- personal and regional advantages may well apply to him.

However, if PDP chooses a southern candidate, then whoever the APC candidate is automatically wins the presidential election because in that case the biggest voting bloc, the North will at least be indifferent thereby giving the APC government the carte blanche to use its incumbency advantage without fear of any repercussions or backslashes. The northerners will not care because it is a choice between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum, the southerners will not care because head or tail, a southerner wins! So the main determinant will be the incumbency factor, and the fear of backslashes, a weapon opposition all over the world rely on and deploy for effective political battle, will not be there for PDP since the voters up north and down south will be indifferent, nonchalant and apathic.

3. WHAT HAPPENS IF BAT LOSES APC PRIMARIES?

The APC is currently embroiled in crises. And, in my view, the recent BAT declaration throws another spanners in the works for APC.

Should APC decides to unfairly scheme out BAT, then the man has what it takes to bring the entire APC house down. BAT's influence in the SW is something any political party messes with at its own peril. In the event of any disrespect from APC, It will be extremely difficult for APC to persuade BAT to remain in the party. BAT can strike a behind-the- scenes agreement with his old friend and business partner, AA. This can be devastating for APC. So, head or tails, BAT holds the Trump card in APC. He's like the proverbial lizard in Hausa folklore that resides beside an earthen water pot. Killing it risks breaking the water pot, leaving it risks contaminating the water therein, so it has to be delicately managed. So should the ambition of BAT in the APC.

Now, given the foregoing, what, in my opinion, is the chance of BAT becoming Nigeria's president? I believe it is high especially if the PMB administration decides to throw its incumbency factor around him. With his ability to mobilize people and align incentives across stakeholders, BAT can neutralize whatever advantages PDP candidates might have. In any case, BAT has the mountainous challenge of chosing a VP. Unless he is able to penetrate a popular northern sect and its key scholars, northern Muslims are not likely to take and treat lightly the possibility of losing both the moon (presidency) and the star (VP) given their voting strength.

Lalasticlala

Tinubus influence in the SW is a myth ...yes he has control of the Local politics of Lagos but that is where it stops

yet important capital intensive projects appeared to have been overly concentrated in the South especially the South West (Lagos-Ibadan axis).

Which South?

Two things that will work against BAT if he eventually emerges apc presidential candidate are Muslim-muslim ticket and Pdp fielding a northern candidate.

Even Buhari will not endorse a muslim-Muslim ticket given the level of tension in Nigeria today.

SarkinYarki:
Tinubus influence in the SW is a myth ...yes he has control of the Local politics of Lagos but that is where it stops

the question is why only ibo dont want Tulumbu to contest?

NaMe4:


Which South?

South West and East. Do u know the cost of Lagos-ibadan rail line?

ThEGodFaThEr101:
Two things that will work against BAT if he eventually emerges apc presidential candidate are Muslim-muslim ticket and Pdp fielding a northern candidate.

Even Buhari will not endorse a muslim-Muslim ticket given the level of tension in Nigeria today.

These are real challenges for BAT. However, he can negotiate what to give northern Muslims and with his firm commitment, and the support of muslim clergy he can pick a northern Christian vice and make it to the villa.

SarkinYarki:
Tinubus influence in the SW is a myth ...yes he has control of the Local politics of Lagos but that is where it stops

MUMU

Me and my 688 family members will vote for Tinubu

Thanks for this post it was so informative keep posting in future too.
prepaidgiftbalance.com

Your assertions are good but the truth remains that it's the North that decides who enters Aso Rock, if they're not comfortable with Tinubu, if he likes let the entire south vote for him, he will not WIN
The North doesn't need all these analysis to make anyone president...why do you think all federal appointment is being head by a Northerner?

North is not just playing party politics come 2023, something bigger than what we're thinking is COMING. It is only when the time is close that it will start getting clearer to Southerners.

NoSentiment:


These are real challenges for BAT. However, he can negotiate what to give northern Muslims and with his firm commitment, and the support of muslim clergy he can pick a northern Christian vice and make it to the villa.

A northern Christian? That will surely come from north central. It's a No-No for northerners.
If Pdp fields Atiku, then a southern VP then it's game on for Pdp.
Remember Buhari defeated Atiku with how many votes again. Atiku just needs 35% of northern vote to become president because he will surely win all ss/se States.

piggyyeasterner:
the question is why only ibo dont want Tulumbu to contest?

Because they hate everyone but their own and they are "good" politicians.

SarkinYarki:
Tinubus influence in the SW is a myth ...yes he has control of the Local politics of Lagos but that is where it stops

Lol Oga, if Tinubu gets the ticket, SW will vote for him.

fyneguy:


Lol Oga, if Tinubu gets the ticket, SW will vote for him.

Sure he would win south west but by how much ? 55% ? That's failure even 70% is failure

There is no way tinubu can get 70% in south west ...he can't even get 60 in Lagos , Oyo , osun and ondo even ekiti ...only place he is sure if 70% is ogun

Shetemi12:
Me and my 688 family members will vote for Tinubu

Tinubu doesn't need your vote and that of your 688 family members to win.

He only needs the support of Northern Elders who are the kingmakers to WIN, without that he's just pouring water on top a rock...if you ask me I don't think Northern Elders will be comfortable handing over to Tinubu because he's a Kingmaker also but just a single person and that's huge competition for the Northern Elders. He will not be loyal once he ascend the throne and they know that so I don't see them especially Buhari allowing him to win. To them, Tinubu is not yet president but see the level of power he controls in Lagos State, APC and some Yoruba states. So I believe they're not happy that such man should be given access to being the Alpha and Omega of a country...

Is it a northerner that wrote this piece ? I am honestly shocked... Good writing skills

mrvitalis:

Sure he would win south west but by how much ? 55% ? That's failure even 70% is failure

There is no way tinubu can get 70% in south west ...he can't even get 60 in Lagos , Oyo , osun and ondo even ekiti ...only place he is sure if 70% is ogun

says an ipob miscreant

I can't wait to see Tinubu vs Atiku contest.
There's an edge Tinubu has over others, he has built strong partnership with influencial elites in the north.
I see him unleashing a lot of silent political giants who will fight for his course.
Atiku failed against Buhari, Obj, Yar'Adua, i see the trend continues.

NoSentiment:
Yesterday, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) declares that he has informed PMB of his ambition to run for Nigeria's president. As a northerner informed, to an extent, about the contemporary dynamics of northern Nigerian politics, what do I think about BAT's chances in light of the preveiling variables?

1. BAT AND THE APC TICKET.

Almost all those believed to have interests in contesting for the presidency in 2023 under the APC platforms are southerners. BAT, Yemi Osinbajo, Kayode Fayemi, Kalu Uzor, you name them. This means that it is highly probable that APC will field a southern Nigerian candidate. If this is the case, BAT has the highest chance of clinching the ticket because none of the other contestants can match him financially, tactically and structurally. So, let us assume that BAT gets the APC ticket.

Now, how can we assess his chances of winning the general elections? Well it all depends on who the PDP fields as its candidate.

2. BAT AND THE PDP CANDIDATE.

Calculative and cunning, the PDP has left the question of who and from where it'll pick its presidential candidate come 2023 open for speculation. This is tactically wise given that this decision has important implications over which party wins the 2023 presidential election. I shall return to the reasons for this conclusion shortly.

Guessing as to where the PDP will pick its candidate from, let us assume that it fiends Atiku Abubakar (AA). This is going to be a tough nut for BAT's and his promoters to crack. Two reasons account for this conclusion. The first pertains to the capacity and capabilities of Atiku in terms of having both the financial war chest and the tactical acumen to match BAT naira for naira, dollar for dollar and shege for shege. The second reason is external to the personalities and parties of both BAT and AA and relates to the prevailing mood in the North and the voting patterns in other regions.

Currently, there is a high level disenchantment with the APC in the North and this cuts across both the elites (who are angry for not being carried along) and the peasantry (who are hungry for not being able to feed). In fact, both elites and peasantry in the North feel that although the current administration has given key positions to the North, and to a large extent, succeded in confining the activities of BH to the fringes of Lake Chad, yet important capital intensive projects appeared to have been overly concentrated in the South especially the South West (Lagos-Ibadan axis). Putting disgruntled northern elites and hungry and dissatisfied peasantry together presents a region that is more likely to stick to the age old dictum that "blood is thicker than water". But BAT's foot soldiers can minimise the impact of this advantage by countering that the North has stayed at the bank of the Aso River for long but has been consigned to washing its hands with the spittle of poverty, de-industrializatioon, and other issues: hence, its not all that glitters that's gold. However, AA has been aiming for the villa for long and now appear to have the sympathies of many who are likely to reason along the line, " Lets try this man and see". But a BAT candidacy may also have the backing of the outgoing president Buhari which can maximize his strengths and minimise his weaknesses.

In the event that the PDP fields a Tambuwal or any other northern candidate, such candidate cannot match BAT financially and tactically but other extra- personal and regional advantages may well apply to him.

However, if PDP chooses a southern candidate, then whoever the APC candidate is automatically wins the presidential election because in that case the biggest voting bloc, the North will at least be indifferent thereby giving the APC government the carte blanche to use its incumbency advantage without fear of any repercussions or backslashes. The northerners will not care because it is a choice between Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum, the southerners will not care because head or tail, a southerner wins! So the main determinant will be the incumbency factor, and the fear of backslashes, a weapon opposition all over the world rely on and deploy for effective political battle, will not be there for PDP since the voters up north and down south will be indifferent, nonchalant and apathic.

3. WHAT HAPPENS IF BAT LOSES APC PRIMARIES?

The APC is currently embroiled in crises. And, in my view, the recent BAT declaration throws another spanners in the works for APC.

Should APC decides to unfairly scheme out BAT, then the man has what it takes to bring the entire APC house down. BAT's influence in the SW is something any political party messes with at its own peril. In the event of any disrespect from APC, It will be extremely difficult for APC to persuade BAT to remain in the party. BAT can strike a behind-the- scenes agreement with his old friend and business partner, AA. This can be devastating for APC. So, head or tails, BAT holds the Trump card in APC. He's like the proverbial lizard in Hausa folklore that resides beside an earthen water pot. Killing it risks breaking the water pot, leaving it risks contaminating the water therein, so it has to be delicately managed. So should the ambition of BAT in the APC.

Now, given the foregoing, what, in my opinion, is the chance of BAT becoming Nigeria's president? I believe it is high especially if the PMB administration decides to throw its incumbency factor around him. With his ability to mobilize people and align incentives across stakeholders, BAT can neutralize whatever advantages PDP candidates might have. In any case, BAT has the mountainous challenge of chosing a VP. Unless he is able to penetrate a popular northern sect and its key scholars, northern Muslims are not likely to take and treat lightly the possibility of losing both the moon (presidency) and the star (VP) given their voting strength.

Next Nigeria president will be Chibuike Amaechi, he will grab APC ticket with El Rufia, Tinubu and Ganduje will later decamp from APC to contest in another party they will still lose

We are all Nigerians

ThEGodFaThEr101:

A northern Christian? That will surely come from north central. It's a No-No for northerners.
If Pdp fields Atiku, then a southern VP then it's game on for Pdp.
Remember Buhari defeated Atiku with how many votes again. Atiku just needs 35% of northern vote to become president because he will surely win all ss/se States.

You don't know politics and you should not be talking politics. Dogara is a Northern Christian with strong influence in the North. Dogara would be a very good VP Candidate.

We are all Nigerians

We are all Nigerians

We are all Nigerians

Reality3080:
says an ipob miscreant

Tinubu presidency dream is hanged on one thing and one thing alone north backing him


The question is why should north back him ? South east n south south don't mind if power remain in the north

Oshomole case would be child's play

post=109274125:

Next Nigeria president will be Chibuike Amaechi, he will grab APC ticket with El Rufia, Tinubu and Ganduje will later decamp from APC to contest in another party they will still lose

It's good to dream but politics is not about day dreaming.

NaijirianKing:
Power will either go to the NC or most likely the NE. The North will support a Northerner, and the "south" is too politically fragmented.

Since PDP is choosing a Northerner and a SS/SE VP candidate, it would be better for APC to likewise field a Northerner in order to stand a chance of winning.

The reality is that a SW Muslim, with a Christian Northerner is not an ideal combination going by political realities presently on ground. It's a very tall order to expect Northerners to leave a Northerner to vote a southerner, especially one who will have a Northern christian, Northern christians have very little elective value when it comes to the core North.

Supporting an El Rufai presidential campaign would be a better bet, maybe pair him with a southern christian, and then that combination would have political leverage to defeat the PDP. If APC fields someone from the SW, that would implicitly mean that the SS and SE would essentially be in PDP's ambit as they have more to gain under a Northern President, than a southern president. The VP position comes to mind.

The SW should really look to throw their weight behind the North in order to be a part of the center.

Anywhere bpower wants to go it should go but never Tinubu or El Rufai

imohimoh12:
Is it a northerner that wrote this piece ? I am honestly shocked... Good writing skills

na my brother o

imohimoh12:
Is it a northerner that wrote this piece ? I am honestly shocked... Good writing skills

That's not a compliment bro.

NaijirianKing:
Great analysis. This is what many southerners do not understand, their time is not 2023, they have ruled this nation more than their fair share.

2000-08 was ruled by the SW
2008-10* the NW
2010-2015 the SS
2015-Present the NW

As anyone can see, the North only has had 8 years thus far, while the south has been in power for 15 years and still wants more. This is the definition of greed. The North is not deceived.

Anyone in favor of justice, equity and zoning should solidly be behind the NC as the NC has had neither the President nor the VP. We will accept a NE candidate as it seems the PDP will zone the ticket to the NE, but APC should also zone the ticket to the NC and allow these zones to taste power. Instead, the south wants to greedily take every position even though they have been in power the most leaving the North to rot...

Enough is enough. We will meet them at the polls...

you are right my brother. All in all if Bat wins apc ticket atiku will definitely be given the pdp ticket and a vo from ss or se will clinch the ticket for pdp becos the Exodus of apc members to pdp will be very large. Na my ne na mu ne.

CamusMidas:

That's not a compliment bro.

they believe north doesn't have knowledge whereas the greatest brains are from the north.