The US markets made an intraday capitulation yesterday and quickly bounced back. It was the largest drop since March 2020 at onset of the pandemic. This must have been triggered by fears of the FED hiking rates, perhaps realized it might not be as anticipated. I think this is setting the tone for what to expect this year. The US markets obviously affect markets worldwide, and so as rates pick up, I foresee a sharp rise in equity before the global decline. Personal opinion...

COURTEVILLE to the moon

sonofElElyon:
COURTEVILLE to the moon

There is traffic jam abi na road block in that one since yesterday. Wetin dey come to hit?

ukay2:


Our own inflation is already at 15.6%

Yes nah, but once d USA ups it's interests rates Nigeria will be forced to react, most likely by increasing theirs above the current inflation rates or suffer massive outflows of funds (Dollars, Pounds, Euros etc).

People like me, "the locals",will happily liquidate many stock positions for 16 to 18% returns that bonds and treasury bills will offer. Why not, I am already sitting on profits.

Next thing you will hear is that Zenith fell bellow 20 Naira, etc.

Marketapprentic:


There is traffic jam abi na road block in that one since yesterday. Wetin dey come to hit?

Has done 10% today.. now at 55k

Sister Mercy abeg show o, what do you advice for courtville? I'm up with 30%, I don't want to follow join for delisting.

ositadima1:


Yes nah, but once d USA ups it's interests rates Nigeria will be forced to react, most likely by increasing theirs above the current inflation rates or suffer massive outflows of funds (Dollars, Pounds, Euros etc).

People like me, "the locals",will happily liquidate many stock positions for 16 to 18% returns that bonds and treasury bills will offer. Why not, I am already sitting on profits.

Next thing you will hear is that Zenith fell bellow 20 Naira, etc.

Are you sure about this? ...and you really don't think you might be viewing things from an unrealistic angle given the present peculiarities and macro-economic stance in Nigeria?

Hear this bro: Don't expect rates in the fixed income mkt space to go near the figures you mentioned (at least, not in 2022)... except maybe for yields in the money mkt terrain. And don't also expect or assume that the equity mkt will be impacted negatively by a likely increase in interest rate in the US.

If I begin to explain certain things to you, the post go too long.

ositadima1:


Yes nah, but once d USA ups it's interests rates Nigeria will be forced to react, most likely by increasing theirs above the current inflation rates or suffer massive outflows of funds (Dollars, Pounds, Euros etc).

People like me, "the locals",will happily liquidate many stock positions for 16 to 18% returns that bonds and treasury bills will offer. Why not, I am already sitting on profits.

Next thing you will hear is that Zenith fell bellow 20 Naira, etc.

You don't have to liquidate everything na.


What percentage of your portfolio do have in Fixed income securities? I have 30% with plans to increase it to 60% by the end of the Q3, let us wait for the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting

ositadima1:


Yes nah, but once d USA ups it's interests rates Nigeria will be forced to react, most likely by increasing theirs above the current inflation rates or suffer massive outflows of funds (Dollars, Pounds, Euros etc).

People like me, "the locals",will happily liquidate many stock positions for 16 to 18% returns that bonds and treasury bills will offer. Why not, I am already sitting on profits.

Next thing you will hear is that Zenith fell bellow 20 Naira, etc.

Pls read through the post below...

No thanks to the policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian fixed income market now operates in four segments – the NTB market, the bond market, the money market, and the OMO market. Each market has its different pattern and the direction of yields across these markets are not the same.

To start with, the local debt stock is about N35trn. Using an assumption of a 10% cost of debt, that’s like N3.50trn spent on servicing local debt. By the time you add external debts, the entire revenue generated by the FG is nearly gone (as we see in reality). Therefore, we should all be clear that for as long as this CBN is there and this administration is still in charge, we should abandon the idea of high yields. To avoid high cost of debts for the FG, the CBN will continue to implement policies to keep interest rates low.

It is for this reason that yields in the Nigerian treasury bills market and bonds market will not materially move past current levels. Yields in the NTBs market will likely be within 5% - 7% band in 2022. In the FGN bonds market, yields (on 10-year) would likely be within 12% - 14%.

Some would say that the estimated government expenditure and fiscal deficit could drive yields upwards. While this should be true in an ideal situation, that will not be the case in Nigeria. This is because the CBN has now gone deep in monetising the FG’s debts. And no, it is not exactly printing money for the FG (if it was, the inflationary pressure we have today will totally go out of hand). The question now is, ‘where does the CBN get the money to support FG excessive spending (a very terrible economic bad behaviour)’?
The answer is in the CRR deposits. On the surface, the CBN is telling the markets that it is pro-growth (they will harp on this again tomorrow after their meeting). Meanwhile, their unorthodox approaches have resulted in excessive CRR debits from banks’ deposits. They will take those monies from banks at 0% and lend to the FG at 9%. This transaction benefits both the FG and CBN (the CBN earns over 900bps spread, clean!).

Meanwhile the banks are the ones at the receiving end. These excessive CRR debits have resulted in liquidity crunch for banks. To stay afloat, banks have been offering high yields to shore up deposits. Mutual funds and even PFAs have been putting funds in bank placements. By implication, banks are faced with rising cost of funds. In summary, the money market yields are most likely going to be high in 2022. I see money market yields trading within the bands of 10% - 12%.

#Copied

ositadima1:


Yes nah, but once d USA ups it's interests rates Nigeria will be forced to react, most likely by increasing theirs above the current inflation rates or suffer massive outflows of funds (Dollars, Pounds, Euros etc).

People like me, "the locals",will happily liquidate many stock positions for 16 to 18% returns that bonds and treasury bills will offer. Why not, I am already sitting on profits.

Next thing you will hear is that Zenith fell bellow 20 Naira, etc.

onegentleguy:


Pls read through the post below...

No thanks to the policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian fixed income market now operates in four segments – the NTB market, the bond market, the money market, and the OMO market. Each market has its different pattern and the direction of yields across these markets are not the same.

To start with, the local debt stock is about N35trn. Using an assumption of a 10% cost of debt, that’s like N3.50trn spent on servicing local debt. By the time you add external debts, the entire revenue generated by the FG is nearly gone (as we see in reality). Therefore, we should all be clear that for as long as this CBN is there and this administration is still in charge, we should abandon the idea of high yields. To avoid high cost of debts for the FG, the CBN will continue to implement policies to keep interest rates low.

It is for this reason that yields in the Nigerian treasury bills market and bonds market will not materially move past current levels. Yields in the NTBs market will likely be within 5% - 7% band in 2022. In the FGN bonds market, yields (on 10-year) would likely be within 12% - 14%.

Some would say that the estimated government expenditure and fiscal deficit could drive yields upwards. While this should be true in an ideal situation, that will not be the case in Nigeria. This is because the CBN has now gone deep in monetising the FG’s debts. And no, it is not exactly printing money for the FG (if it was, the inflationary pressure we have today will totally go out of hand). The question now is, ‘where does the CBN get the money to support FG excessive spending (a very terrible economic bad behaviour)’?
The answer is in the CRR deposits. On the surface, the CBN is telling the markets that it is pro-growth (they will harp on this again tomorrow after their meeting). Meanwhile, their unorthodox approaches have resulted in excessive CRR debits from banks’ deposits. They will take those monies from banks at 0% and lend to the FG at 9%. This transaction benefits both the FG and CBN (the CBN earns over 900bps spread, clean!).

Meanwhile the banks are the ones at the receiving end. These excessive CRR debits have resulted in liquidity crunch for banks. To stay afloat, banks have been offering high yields to shore up deposits. Mutual funds and even PFAs have been putting funds in bank placements. By implication, banks are faced with rising cost of funds. In summary, the money market yields are most likely going to be high in 2022. I see money market yields trading within the bands of 10% - 12%.

#Copied

So by implication, yields in the fixed income space will continue to print a deficit to surrounding risk. (real return margin in view)
...and in some cases (depending on the tenure) might even be in the double digit figure.

Contrarily, certain select fundamentally healthy asset in the equity mkt prints positive RR (real return) and for the many with negative RR, they are still better than the yield in the fixed income mkt.
Again, when you add the possibility of increasing your CGY via cap appreciation and consider a few other top-down factors, you'll begin to understand why the NSE is currently not a seller's mkt.

Now let me let you in on another pivotal perspective...

Look at the anatomy and dynamic of mkt participants in recent times (last 18 months in view) and you'll notice that the mkt has been dominated by local players.
From the foreign end, they have been strategically exiting yet the equity mkt has been sustained by the local players. ...though more from KEY players (DPIs, PFAs, and HNIs) than retail investors.
Observe the NET INFLOW MARGIN (inflow- outflow/inflow) and compare it to the rate of flow and weight of TOTAL INFLOW for both the domestic and foreign players.
Ever wonder why?
Well, you already know that the core of those funds (from key local players) that would've originally gone to the fixed income mkt will have to find its way to the equity mkt. Money knows no rest, hence will always look for better yield.
I have analyzed and highlighted why this is happening in times past.
The scene of the mkt is changing.

Again, have you studied the recent finance bill? Hope you know that certain lines therein is structured to discourage capital flight and improve on the long-term sustainability of the mkt. Some persons don't understand how and are perhaps assuming it's the opposite.

We will sell to them when they (FPIs) decide to come back in their droves... at which point the mkt might push up even better.
and yes, it's very possible they'll come back in no time. For some logical reason, most EMs are well positioned to tap from the dislocation in the global financial mkt.

Bottom line:
You need to narrow down on your expectations.
Yes, the mkt can time and again pull back but don't expect a major downturn/bear. ...not even because of the proposed rate increment in the US.
There are good reasons why the NSE has remained relatively stable against all odds.
Technically, it has just broken it's strong 2018 resistance high a few days ago.

A smart investor will look out for sectors and by extension, assets that are well positioned to benefit from the continuous changes in the economy.
...else you might miss out on some select opportunities.

There's always a need to strike a proper balance btw been unduly pessimistic and been overly optimistic.

Selah

ositadima1:


Yes nah, but once d USA ups it's interests rates Nigeria will be forced to react, most likely by increasing theirs above the current inflation rates or suffer massive outflows of funds (Dollars, Pounds, Euros etc).

People like me, "the locals",will happily liquidate many stock positions for 16 to 18% returns that bonds and treasury bills will offer. Why not, I am already sitting on profits.

Next thing you will hear is that Zenith fell bellow 20 Naira, etc.

I am really waiting for that time...18% yield on FGN bonds

onegentleguy:




So by implication, yields in the fixed income space, will continue to print a deficit to surrounding risk. (real return margin in view)
...which in some cases (depending on the tenure) might even be in the double digit figure.

Elsewhere, certain select fundamentally healthy asset in equity mkt prints positive real return. ...and when you add the possibility of increasing your CGY via cap appreciation and a few other factors, then you'll begin to understand why the NSE is currently not a seller's mkt.

Now let me let you in on another pivotal perspective...

Look at the anatomy and dynamic of mkt participants in recent times (last 18 months in view) and you'll notice that the mkt has been dominated by local players.
From the foreign end, they have been strategically exiting, yet the equity mkt has been sustained by the local players. ...though more from KEY players (DPIs, PFAs, and HNIs) than retail investors. Look at the NET INFLOW MARGIN (inflow- outflow/inflow) and compare it to the rate of flow and weight of TOTAL INFLOW for both the domestic and foreign players.
Ever wonder why?
...and I have analyzed and highlighted why this is happening in times past.
The scene of the mkt is changing.
Have you studied the finance bill? Certain lines therein is structured to discourage capital capital flight and ensure long-term sustainability of the mkt.

We will sell to them when they (FPIs) decide to come back in their droves... at which point the mkt might push up faster.

Bottom line: You need to narrow down on your expectations.
Yes the mkt can time and again pull back but don't expect a major downturn/bear. ...not even because of the proposed rate increment in the US.
There are good reasons why the NSE has remained relatively stable against all odds.
Technically, it broke it's strong 2018 high on the a few days ago.

There's always a need to strike a proper balance btw been unduly pessimistic and been overly optimistic.
...otherwise, you might miss out on some select opportunities.

Selah

My boss, what is your take on international brewery as well as the fair price in your book? A reply will be well appreciated. Thanks

edwardaigb:
Sister Mercy abeg show o, what do you advice for courtville? I'm up with 30%, I don't want to follow join for delisting.

My opinion:
Still hold for now, let's see what they're up to.
On full bid @55k as @ now, insiders may already know what we don't know.
Also, delisting takes time and processes, so they can't just come overnight and delist it.
Once the CP is far above your cost/breakeven price, don't think there's anything to worry much about.
***Pls remember this is my personal opinion, you may keep eye on the price movement and follow your mind at any given time***

If you want to try out another one, to buy for keep, buy Chams if you see @20k..........if nothing happens, you have little or nothing to loose.

BTW, no be Everytime I dey get transport to come here again o, won't be regular like before.

COURTVILLE
@55k full bid.....
Pastor Veecovee compliment of the season sir!

Marketapprentic:


My boss, what is your take on international brewery as well as the fair price in your book? A reply will be well appreciated. Thanks

N5 and below is a steal!
...BUY!

Mid to Long-term horizon in view

Due diligence still applies as always.

ukay2:


I am really waiting for that time...18% yield on FGN bonds

U like better things

2 much..

NNFM, TRANSCORP & FIDSON

CHAMPION BREWERY
Take over form if you don't have it yet........
Offer price: N2.60.......
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34869_CHAMPION_BREW_PLC%20TAKE%20OVER_OFFER_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_.pdf

TELECOMS
https://www.nairaland.com/6955633/nigeria-looks-5g-technology-address

yMcy56:

My opinion:
Still hold for now, let's see what they're up to.
On full bid as @ now, insiders may already know what we don't know.
Also, delisting takes time and processes, so they can't just come overnight and delist it.
Once the CP is far above your cost/breakeven price, don't think there's anything to worry much about.
***Pls remember this is my personal opinion, you may keep eye on the price movement and follow your mind at any given time***

If you want to try out another one, to buy for keep, buy Chams if you see @20k..........if nothing happens, you have little or nothing to loose.

BTW, no be Everytime I dey get transport to come here again o, won't be regular like before.

Thanks and God Bless you.

ETI
Full bid @9.95......
Improved result and rumour of dividend payment maybe ......

NB
The rate at which the parent company and maybe foreigners are mopping and crossing this stock is alarming!!
Are we sure this company won't opt for delisting in future?
We wait and see......God willing..

yMcy56:
CHAMPION BREWERY
Take over form if you don't have it yet........
Offer price: N2.60.......
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34869_CHAMPION_BREW_PLC%20TAKE%20OVER_OFFER_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_.pdf

TELECOMS
https://www.nairaland.com/6955633/nigeria-looks-5g-technology-address

pls what happens if one doesn't fill the form or if one doesn't want to sell

onegentleguy:


Pls read through the post below...

No thanks to the policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Nigerian fixed income market now operates in four segments – the NTB market, the bond market, the money market, and the OMO market. Each market has its different pattern and the direction of yields across these markets are not the same.

To start with, the local debt stock is about N35trn. Using an assumption of a 10% cost of debt, that’s like N3.50trn spent on servicing local debt. By the time you add external debts, the entire revenue generated by the FG is nearly gone (as we see in reality). Therefore, we should all be clear that for as long as this CBN is there and this administration is still in charge, we should abandon the idea of high yields. To avoid high cost of debts for the FG, the CBN will continue to implement policies to keep interest rates low.

It is for this reason that yields in the Nigerian treasury bills market and bonds market will not materially move past current levels. Yields in the NTBs market will likely be within 5% - 7% band in 2022. In the FGN bonds market, yields (on 10-year) would likely be within 12% - 14%.

Some would say that the estimated government expenditure and fiscal deficit could drive yields upwards. While this should be true in an ideal situation, that will not be the case in Nigeria. This is because the CBN has now gone deep in monetising the FG’s debts. And no, it is not exactly printing money for the FG (if it was, the inflationary pressure we have today will totally go out of hand). The question now is, ‘where does the CBN get the money to support FG excessive spending (a very terrible economic bad behaviour)’?
The answer is in the CRR deposits. On the surface, the CBN is telling the markets that it is pro-growth (they will harp on this again tomorrow after their meeting). Meanwhile, their unorthodox approaches have resulted in excessive CRR debits from banks’ deposits. They will take those monies from banks at 0% and lend to the FG at 9%. This transaction benefits both the FG and CBN (the CBN earns over 900bps spread, clean!).

Meanwhile the banks are the ones at the receiving end. These excessive CRR debits have resulted in liquidity crunch for banks. To stay afloat, banks have been offering high yields to shore up deposits. Mutual funds and even PFAs have been putting funds in bank placements. By implication, banks are faced with rising cost of funds. In summary, the money market yields are most likely going to be high in 2022. I see money market yields trading within the bands of 10% - 12%.

#Copied

MPC holds all policy parameters. Excellent outcome just read out live by CBN governor.

BabsO2:


MPC holds all policy parameters. Excellent outcome just read out live by CBN governor.

...as expected!

Regards

yMcy56:

My opinion:
Still hold for now, let's see what they're up to.
On full bid @55k as @ now, insiders may already know what we don't know.
Also, delisting takes time and processes, so they can't just come overnight and delist it.
Once the CP is far above your cost/breakeven price, don't think there's anything to worry much about.
***Pls remember this is my personal opinion, you may keep eye on the price movement and follow your mind at any given time***

If you want to try out another one, to buy for keep, buy Chams if you see @20k..........if nothing happens, you have little or nothing to loose.

BTW, no be Everytime I dey get transport to come here again o, won't be regular like before.

Why na?

yMcy56:

My opinion:
Still hold for now, let's see what they're up to.
On full bid @55k as @ now, insiders may already know what we don't know.
Also, delisting takes time and processes, so they can't just come overnight and delist it.
Once the CP is far above your cost/breakeven price, don't think there's anything to worry much about.
***Pls remember this is my personal opinion, you may keep eye on the price movement and follow your mind at any given time***

If you want to try out another one, to buy for keep, buy Chams if you see @20k..........if nothing happens, you have little or nothing to loose.

BTW, no be Everytime I dey get transport to come here again o, won't be regular like before.

Sister mercy what are the prospects of chams? Are they also delisting? Or results will be impressive?

Ekuu new year

Ekuu Mkt o

Ekuu courtvile full bid run o ^{good gain so far for those bought @ 22k}

currentprice:
Ekuu new year

Ekuu Mkt o

Ekuu courtvile full bid run o ^{good gain so far for those bought @ 22k}

Oga CP thank you for that one. I will come with my tithe at the due time

Please, based on last Q3 result or projected FY , what is your spreadsheet saying about the fair price of TOTAL PLC.

THANKS

Q4 Results have started coming in......

://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34873_CADBURY_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FO.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34875_NPF_MICROFINANCE_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEME.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34872_MULTIVERSE_MINING_AND_EXPLORATION_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINAN.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34868_SECURE_ELECTRONIC_TECHNOLOGY_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34863_LIVINGTRUST_MORTGAGE_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STA.pdf

UCAP, why the delay this time around?
Oya show face quick o.

Good evening House
Your analysis on multiverse Q4 2021 Result

Mcy56:
Q4 Results have started coming in......
://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34873_CADBURY_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FO.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34875_NPF_MICROFINANCE_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEME.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34872_MULTIVERSE_MINING_AND_EXPLORATION_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINAN.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34868_SECURE_ELECTRONIC_TECHNOLOGY_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34863_LIVINGTRUST_MORTGAGE_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STA.pdf

UCAP, why the delay this time around?
Oya show face quick o.

Just realized I logged in with the other handle, whether na for the bus stop wey train drop me, I don change am to Ymcy for easy trailing of results.

Mcy56:
Q4 Results have started coming in......

://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34873_CADBURY_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FO.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34875_NPF_MICROFINANCE_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEME.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34872_MULTIVERSE_MINING_AND_EXPLORATION_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINAN.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34868_SECURE_ELECTRONIC_TECHNOLOGY_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34863_LIVINGTRUST_MORTGAGE_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STA.pdf

UCAP, why the delay this time around?
Oya show face quick o.

All these are unaudited results...

UCAP will be releasing audited results so they have a different timescale... Besides, their board meeting is on February 17th so there's still quite a wait ahead....