Law 45: PREACH THE NEED FOR CHANGE, BUT NEVER REFORM TOO MUCH AT ONCE

JUDGMENT
Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.
-Robert Greene, 48 laws of power

OBSERVANCE OF THE LAW
Bola Tinubu, a statesman Yoruba politician from Western part of Nigeria have always had a national ambition, and putatively, only through a political alliance with the powerful Hausa-Fulani oligarch of Northern Nigeria, who dominates the country’s political schemes could he realize his ambition. But considering the habitual political animosity between the Yoruba tribe of Western-Nigeria and the Northern-Nigeria Hausa-Fulani people, it presents a most treacherous and dangerous terrain for Tinubu.

The genesis of the problem:
The years leading to Nigeria’s independence saw the country being driven by tribal and regional politics. Each of the three regions – Northern, Eastern and Western regions had a dominant political party that controls its politics and administration, and neither of these regions, their political parties and their leaders had any serious reasons to affiliate with one another until towards 1960 – when the need for the first federal government of an independent Nigeria arose.

The Northern region’s political party – Northern People’s Congress (NPC) had emerged victorious in the parliamentary elections and the Eastern region’s leader, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, together with his political party, the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), allied with the northern political party and formed a federal government. The western region on the other hand, whose leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo felt that they – the Yorubas of the western region, were better suited to lead the new country at the federal level, instead of these undeservedly Hausa-Fulani from the north. He refused any form of alliance with the Northern party and declined invitation to join the federal government. Even when his trusted lieutenant, Chief Samuel Akintola persuaded him to join the federal coalition, Awolowo refused; there was absolutely no way that he, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a brilliant lawyer and distinguished businessman, would play second fiddle in power to these people from up north who are less educated and are only good in farming tomatoes and trading groundnuts. However, Akintola seeing no good in opposing these powerful and politically artful northerners, then ditched Awolowo, formed his own party, and joined the coalition with the northern party.

The Northerners were happy with Akintola’s move and rewarded him tremendously; and using their federal might, they succeeded in deposing Awolowo and his party, and got Akintola elected as the western region’s new leader. But Awolowo, whose supporters were much more in numbers, decisively fought back, thus plunging the western region into spate of crisis. When the violence increased, including an all-for-all brawl at the western-region’s house of parliament, the federal government, under the control of the Northerners blamed it all on Awolowo. He was summarily arrested, tried for treason and then sent to prison. Awolowo’s people, the Western Yoruba were livid; they despised the northerners for treating their revered leader condescendingly, and also, for imposing Akintola on them. Akintola was thought of as a traitor. So also were the Igbo politicians of the eastern region, especially Azikiwe, whom the Yorubas considered slavish and subservient to the northerners.

By the year 1979, after many years of military rule and democracy was restored, the same patterns of politics played out again. The Northern and Eastern region allied and emerged victorious during the elections, at the expense of the Western Yoruba. And then again in 1983, Awolowo and his people were soundly defeated at the polls by the same northern and eastern alliance.

In 1993, when the northern led military government of General Ibrahim Babangida decided to return power back to the politicians and conducted elections, only to cancel it after the western-region and Yoruba candidate, Chief Moshood Abiola had won. The Yorubas were enraged, they held rallies every now then and protested incessantly against the Northern government. Then an apparently desperate Abiola declared himself president, and thus, was promptly arrested and thrown in jail by the military government of General Sani Abacha (a northerner). Bola Tinubu was a close associate of Chief Abiola.

In the year 1999, after several political twists and another long years of military rule by northern military men, democracy returned again. The Northern oligarch, deciding to be considerate, allowed the Western Yorubas to produce the next president. However, even though the two forerunners in the presidential race – Ex-General Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Olu Falae, were both Yoruba men, the Yorubas voted massively for Chief Falae against Obasanjo, being the fact that Obasanjo was the choice of the northern oligarch and was released from prison only just a year earlier and foist into the contest by the northerners. Also, Obasanjo, when he was the military ruler in 1979, had presided over the elections in which their revered leader, Awolowo was defeated by the northerners. Invariably, that had created untold animosity between Obasanjo and Awolowo.

Notwithstanding, Obasanjo and his party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won the presidential contest, with votes largely from the northern and eastern region, while Falae’s party – Alliance for Democracy (AD) which was seen as an entrenchment of the old Yoruba political movement and an offshoot of Awolowo’s former political parties, as expected won the Yoruba states, which includes Lagos State, and that was how Bola Tinubu, who contested under AD, became the governor of Lagos State.

During the 2003 elections, Obasanjo who was president, and determined to seize total control of the western region for his party, the PDP, ensured that they won all the western region states. He succeeded with the exception of only one state – Lagos State, where Bola Tinubu was governor and which remained under the AD. Tinubu survived Obasanjo’s onslaught, through his own sheer political astuteness.

Bola Tinubu’s Tactics:
After completing his second term as Lagos governor, Tinubu, as the only surviving governor from AD, then took control of the party. First, he changed the party’s name from AD to Action Congress (AC), which is more or less a rebirth of Awolowo’s party in the 60s, Action Group (AG). Then he began to spread his political tentacles by getting his former aides and associates to contest elections in the western region. The party’s ideology, he ensured, was in the mold of Awolowo’s ideology – known as Awoist. Tinubu limited his operations within the Yoruba enclaves, but for the presidential election, he did something quite remarkably different, he gave the party’s presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar, the embattled Vice-President and a Hausa-Fulani northerner. Although after the elections, the AC could only win Lagos State, Tinubu, tenaciously went to court and won back even more states. His loyalist and political protégé became governors, senators and federal representative. Tinubu did not bother with the presidential election result. It was not yet the time.

During the 2011 elections, Tinubu redoubled his influence over the political terrain of the western region, and his party, which now goes by the name Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), won even more elections. But just as he had done in 2007, a northerner was again his party’s presidential candidate. In 2013, Tinubu made his final push, he went into an alliance with another northern party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party led by Ex-General Muhammadu Buhari, a widely perceived northern fundamentalist and the party, CPC itself is ideologically pro-northern, and basically the replica of the northern region’s party of the 60s, Northern People’s Congress (NPC). Thus, marking the very first time a pro-western Yoruba led party would be aligning itself with their politically sworn enemies, a pro-northern Hausa-Fulani political party. The newly formed party was called “All Progressive Congress (APC)” and Tinubu, was henceforth called the national leader of the party. He makes the most important calls within the party, including nominating the party’s vice presidential candidate. And when the party eventually won the next presidential election, with votes gotten essentially from the north and west. Tinubu got his loyalist appointed into several key positions as federal ministers, head of agencies and more. He had finally gotten the power at the federal level he had long sought.

Interpretation
Bola Tinubu wanted power at the federal level. For all purpose and intent, he always had a presidential ambition. Knowing the merits of grassroots politics, his first step was to entrench himself into his ethnic and regional politics by espousing the ideology of the revered leader, Awolowo. Then after gaining acceptance regionally, and knowing that only an alliance with the powerful North and their superior numerical strength could guarantee his success at the federal level, a sacrosanct window which the intransigent Awolowo failed to see, or better still, imprudently failed to exploit.
But if he had made such alliance with the northerners all at once, he could easily lose his local support base, and would have certainly backfired seeing how Awolowo’s deputy in the 60s, Chief Samuel Akintola who had made the same move stirred up resentments from the majority of the Western Yorubas. Basically, what Bola Tinubu did was to employ the same strategy as Mao Tse-Tung had done in China – who constantly cloaked his revolutionary ideas in the past, making it legitimate and comforting in the people’s eye. Tinubu also cloaked his political maneuvers in the envelope of the ideology of the legendary western-region leader, Awolowo, which is the most acceptable and comforting to the Yoruba people, while ultimately adopting Akintola’s strategy – an alliance with the North – which Awolowo had vehemently opposed; that way, he got what he wanted – power and influence at the federal level without losing that which he already has – a grip on the local politics of his region.
The overwhelming success of Tinubu tactics further amplifies the import of this sacred Law of never reforming too much at once.

Takeaway Quote
“Pay lip service to tradition. Identify the elements in your revolution that can be made to seem to build on the past. Say the right things, make a show of conformity, and meanwhile let your theories do their radical work.”
-Robert Greene

Excerpts is from my book “Transgressions and and Observances of the 48 Laws of Power in Nigeria”
available on Amazon Kindle.
Find it on Amazon with the serial number: B09S3YZ465

NB: If you require a creative ghost writer for your memoirs, autobiographies, tell-all-tales, reach me via
email: serrickbytes@gmail.com

Nice analysis

Ok

life2017:
Nice analysis

Thank you

In summary what ever you do , set a plan . He has done his homework and studied the Nigeria politics and learned from the success and failures of the past . I say this Tinubu is undoubtedly the brain behind the overthrowing the PDP government. It's not an easy feat u wonder why people are still doubting his ability to profer solutions to the Nigeria problems and make remarkable changes. I for one knows he has the right policies and machinery to move Nigeria forward .

Another Tinubu wailing don start again today

The funny thing I have found out is that, most of his haters on Nairaland are mostly PDP/Atiku supporters.

Man wey sabi,BAT 2023

Naso buhari analysis take start,
This county is doomed.

Imagine a sane person sitting down to write this epistle and he thinks his children will inherit a better Nigeria. Tueh

Where are his antagonists?


I have missed them


They used to make Nairaland sweet?



Mods did you ban them?


Please unban them! Please!

#itiswell!

SerrickBytes:
Law 45: PREACH THE NEED FOR CHANGE, BUT NEVER REFORM TOO MUCH AT ONCE

JUDGMENT
Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.
-Robert Greene, 48 laws of power

OBSERVANCE OF THE LAW
Bola Tinubu, a statesman Yoruba politician from Western part of Nigeria have always had a national ambition, and putatively, only through a political alliance with the powerful Hausa-Fulani oligarch of Northern Nigeria, who dominates the country’s political schemes could he realize his ambition. But considering the habitual political animosity between the Yoruba tribe of Western-Nigeria and the Northern-Nigeria Hausa-Fulani people, it presents a most treacherous and dangerous terrain for Tinubu.

The genesis of the problem:
The years leading to Nigeria’s independence saw the country being driven by tribal and regional politics. Each of the three regions – Northern, Eastern and Western regions had a dominant political party that controls its politics and administration, and neither of these regions, their political parties and their leaders had any serious reasons to affiliate with one another until towards 1960 – when the need for the first federal government of an independent Nigeria arose.

The Northern region’s political party – Northern People’s Congress (NPC) had emerged victorious in the parliamentary elections and the Eastern region’s leader, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, together with his political party, the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), allied with the northern political party and formed a federal government. The western region on the other hand, whose leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo felt that they – the Yorubas of the western region, were better suited to lead the new country at the federal level, instead of these undeservedly Hausa-Fulani from the north. He refused any form of alliance with the Northern party and declined invitation to join the federal government. Even when his trusted lieutenant, Chief Samuel Akintola persuaded him to join the federal coalition, Awolowo refused; there was absolutely no way that he, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a brilliant lawyer and distinguished businessman, would play second fiddle in power to these people from up north who are less educated and are only good in farming tomatoes and trading groundnuts. However, Akintola seeing no good in opposing these powerful and politically artful northerners, then ditched Awolowo, formed his own party, and joined the coalition with the northern party.

The Northerners were happy with Akintola’s move and rewarded him tremendously; and using their federal might, they succeeded in deposing Awolowo and his party, and got Akintola elected as the western region’s new leader. But Awolowo, whose supporters were much more in numbers, decisively fought back, thus plunging the western region into spate of crisis. When the violence increased, including an all-for-all brawl at the western-region’s house of parliament, the federal government, under the control of the Northerners blamed it all on Awolowo. He was summarily arrested, tried for treason and then sent to prison. Awolowo’s people, the Western Yoruba were livid; they despised the northerners for treating their revered leader condescendingly, and also, for imposing Akintola on them. Akintola was thought of as a traitor. So also were the Igbo politicians of the eastern region, especially Azikiwe, whom the Yorubas considered slavish and subservient to the northerners.

By the year 1979, after many years of military rule and democracy was restored, the same patterns of politics played out again. The Northern and Eastern region allied and emerged victorious during the elections, at the expense of the Western Yoruba. And then again in 1983, Awolowo and his people were soundly defeated at the polls by the same northern and eastern alliance.

In 1993, when the northern led military government of General Ibrahim Babangida decided to return power back to the politicians and conducted elections, only to cancel it after the western-region and Yoruba candidate, Chief Moshood Abiola had won. The Yorubas were enraged, they held rallies every now then and protested incessantly against the Northern government. Then an apparently desperate Abiola declared himself president, and thus, was promptly arrested and thrown in jail by the military government of General Sani Abacha (a northerner). Bola Tinubu was a close associate of Chief Abiola.

In the year 1999, after several political twists and another long years of military rule by northern military men, democracy returned again. The Northern oligarch, deciding to be considerate, allowed the Western Yorubas to produce the next president. However, even though the two forerunners in the presidential race – Ex-General Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Olu Falae, were both Yoruba men, the Yorubas voted massively for Chief Falae against Obasanjo, being the fact that Obasanjo was the choice of the northern oligarch and was released from prison only just a year earlier and foist into the contest by the northerners. Also, Obasanjo, when he was the military ruler in 1979, had presided over the elections in which their revered leader, Awolowo was defeated by the northerners. Invariably, that had created untold animosity between Obasanjo and Awolowo.

Notwithstanding, Obasanjo and his party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won the presidential contest, with votes largely from the northern and eastern region, while Falae’s party – Alliance for Democracy (AD) which was seen as an entrenchment of the old Yoruba political movement and an offshoot of Awolowo’s former political parties, as expected won the Yoruba states, which includes Lagos State, and that was how Bola Tinubu, who contested under AD, became the governor of Lagos State.

During the 2003 elections, Obasanjo who was president, and determined to seize total control of the western region for his party, the PDP, ensured that they won all the western region states. He succeeded with the exception of only one state – Lagos State, where Bola Tinubu was governor and which remained under the AD. Tinubu survived Obasanjo’s onslaught, through his own sheer political astuteness.

Bola Tinubu’s Tactics:
After completing his second term as Lagos governor, Tinubu, as the only surviving governor from AD, then took control of the party. First, he changed the party’s name from AD to Action Congress (AC), which is more or less a rebirth of Awolowo’s party in the 60s, Action Group (AG). Then he began to spread his political tentacles by getting his former aides and associates to contest elections in the western region. The party’s ideology, he ensured, was in the mold of Awolowo’s ideology – known as Awoist. Tinubu limited his operations within the Yoruba enclaves, but for the presidential election, he did something quite remarkably different, he gave the party’s presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar, the embattled Vice-President and a Hausa-Fulani northerner. Although after the elections, the AC could only win Lagos State, Tinubu, tenaciously went to court and won back even more states. His loyalist and political protégé became governors, senators and federal representative. Tinubu did not bother with the presidential election result. It was not yet the time.

During the 2011 elections, Tinubu redoubled his influence over the political terrain of the western region, and his party, which now goes by the name Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), won even more elections. But just as he had done in 2007, a northerner was again his party’s presidential candidate. In 2013, Tinubu made his final push, he went into an alliance with another northern party, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), a party led by Ex-General Muhammadu Buhari, a widely perceived northern fundamentalist and the party, CPC itself is ideologically pro-northern, and basically the replica of the northern region’s party of the 60s, Northern People’s Congress (NPC). Thus, marking the very first time a pro-western Yoruba led party would be aligning itself with their politically sworn enemies, a pro-northern Hausa-Fulani political party. The newly formed party was called “All Progressive Congress (APC)” and Tinubu, was henceforth called the national leader of the party. He makes the most important calls within the party, including nominating the party’s vice presidential candidate. And when the party eventually won the next presidential election, with votes gotten essentially from the north and west. Tinubu got his loyalist appointed into several key positions as federal ministers, head of agencies and more. He had finally gotten the power at the federal level he had long sought.

Interpretation
Bola Tinubu wanted power at the federal level. For all purpose and intent, he always had a presidential ambition. Knowing the merits of grassroots politics, his first step was to entrench himself into his ethnic and regional politics by espousing the ideology of the revered leader, Awolowo. Then after gaining acceptance regionally, and knowing that only an alliance with the powerful North and their superior numerical strength could guarantee his success at the federal level, a sacrosanct window which the intransigent Awolowo failed to see, or better still, imprudently failed to exploit.
But if he had made such alliance with the northerners all at once, he could easily lose his local support base, and would have certainly backfired seeing how Awolowo’s deputy in the 60s, Chief Samuel Akintola who had made the same move stirred up resentments from the majority of the Western Yorubas. Basically, what Bola Tinubu did was to employ the same strategy as Mao Tse-Tung had done in China – who constantly cloaked his revolutionary ideas in the past, making it legitimate and comforting in the people’s eye. Tinubu also cloaked his political maneuvers in the envelope of the ideology of the legendary western-region leader, Awolowo, which is the most acceptable and comforting to the Yoruba people, while ultimately adopting Akintola’s strategy – an alliance with the North – which Awolowo had vehemently opposed; that way, he got what he wanted – power and influence at the federal level without losing that which he already has – a grip on the local politics of his region.
The overwhelming success of Tinubu tactics further amplifies the import of this sacred Law of never reforming too much at once.

Takeaway Quote
“Pay lip service to tradition. Identify the elements in your revolution that can be made to seem to build on the past. Say the right things, make a show of conformity, and meanwhile let your theories do their radical work.”
-Robert Greene

Excerpts is from my book “Transgressions and and Observances of the 48 Laws of Power in Nigeria”
available on Amazon Kindle.
Find it on Amazon with the serial number: B09S3YZ465

NB: If you require a creative ghost writer for your memoirs, autobiographies, tell-all-tales, reach me via
email: serrickbytes@gmail.com
Whatsapp: +2348024910945

Abiola treatment dey await him. Killers no go rule us again. Like everyone, him get right to be voted or voted for.

This is actually a great breakdown. Thanks for this OP.

Oyin2212:
This is actually a great breakdown. Thanks for this OP.

Thank you for reading.
You can get the complete ebook on amazon kindle
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