2023: Southeast, Southsouth can’t produce APC candidate
By Abubakar Saad On Feb 17, 2022

At his last media chat late last year, President Muhammadu Buhari said he had his own preferred candidate for the 2023 election, but declined to give a clue saying the candidate may be harmed or even be eliminated before the time.

That statement not only heightened the permutation among the aspirants in the ruling APC, but it equally charged the atmosphere that politicians and stakeholders across the country had to work under.

Less than forty eight hours after the chat, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos and chieftain of APC surfaced in Aso Rock to “brief the President and inform the nation about his presidential ambition in 2023.”


A week after, Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi state followed suit. Though the kites have also been flying with different colours in the other political parties, last week, rumours from high quarters of associates of the federal government and political gladiators expressed the possibility of the President throwing his weight behind either a Southsouth or Southeast candidate. Prominent among them are Rotimi Amaechi, Ogbonnaya Onu, Dave Umahi and most recently, Godwin Emefiele. It is rumoured that this choice will be narrowed to these two regions.

The illogicality of this choice is more than obvious. This goes a long way to expose the naivety and lack of requisite political arithmetic (logic) in the brains of those who made these propositions to the President.

The record of the support the party enjoys from each and every geo-political zone of the country is very open and glaring. In the 2015 presidential election, the APC got 2.411 million votes from the Northcentral; 2.848 million from the Northeast; the Northwest gave the party 7.115 million votes; while the Southeast gave 198,778 votes. The Southwest brought 2.433 million, and the Southsouth 418, 590.

In the 2019 presidential election as well, the Northwest brought 5.995 million votes to the APC; the Northeast gave 3.465 million; the Northcentral gave 2.465 million votes; Southwest mustered 2.036 million; Southeast gave 403, 968 and Southsouth brought 1.051 million votes to the party.


Also, the recent elections in Anambra and Abuja have given us a clue on how the 2023 election will most likely be, at least for now since the country ethno-religious division is coming to the fore now more than any time before. For instance, the Anambra elections where federal might was deployed, yet the APC came third.

The APC could not find its feet in the Southeast State, with APGA emerging victorious over APC. This is an indication that the Southeast is obviously not an APC friendly zone. This has been manifesting even before the coming of APC, in 2003, 2007 and 2011 when Buhari paired himself with one of their own sons to fly the presidential flag of the ANPP.

The election in Abuja which took place on the February 12, is yet another indication of the possible outcome of the 2023 general elections. If one takes a closer look at the Geo-political composition of the six Area Councils, it is easy to conclude that it is a reflection of what is expected in the larger country. The Abuja election is a litmus test conducted to give a clue of what should be expected in other geo-political zones of the federation outside the federal capital come 2023.

The analysis below further elaborates my argument where it could be seen clearly that Area Councils that have predominant composition of South Easterners, and South Southerners have supported and voted for PDP candidates while the APC candidates turned out victorious in areas where there are largely composition of Northerners and South Westerners.

Analysis of party against geo-political domination

Area Council Party (A+C) (A+B) Remarks

1 AMAC PDP largely Southeast A reflection of Southeast/Southsouth

2 Bwari PDP largely Southeast A reflection of Southeast/Southsouth

3 Kuje PDP largely South/East A reflection of Southeast/Southsouth

4 Abaji APC largely composition of Northcentral, North/West and South/West A reflection of Northcentral/Northwest/Southwest

5 Kwali APC largely composition of North/Central, North/West and South/West A reflection of Northcentral/Northwest/Southwest

6 Gwagwalada APC largely composition of North/Central, North/West and South/West A reflection of Northcentral/Northwest/Southwest

A – Northern composition

B – Eastern and Southsouth composition

C – Western composition

If the analysis above is anything to go by, the idea of ignoring the Northcentral and Southwest in the choice of a presidential candidate for APC which are no doubt the strongest support base of the party will be a miscalculation and an illogical political exercise.

The best option for APC to be on the track to electoral victory is to expand the option of including the Northcentral and the Southwest where they have five governors of APC out of the six states in each zone making them the undisputable, strongest hold of the party rather than excluding them as opposed to the Southeast and Southsouth where they have 2 and 1 APC Governors respectively out of the 11 States in their zones.

The least strategy for the APC-led government to adopt is to allow an open and free contest for the most credible and popular choice to emerge, but never narrow the ticket to a Southeast or Southsouth option. Narrowing the choice to Southeast and South will be political suicide!

The consequences for such a decision may be a serious revolt and possible decamp from those strong APC areas which would see their loyalty and consistency in following the party as a wasteful and unappreciated exercise. The conclusion would be that APC would have kissed goodbye to any chances of victory come 2023 should they adopt the idea of narrowing the presidential ticket to only Southeast and Southsouth.



Saad, a Political Strategist/Commentator, writes from Abuja, Nigeria

Fahdiga:
Then APC has lost the election even before any vote has been cast. Power should remain in the north instead

Fahdiga:
Then APC has lost the election even before any vote has been cast. Power should remain in the north instead

LeoDeKing:
Tell them.

He who has ears, let him hear.

LeoDeKing:
[s][/s]

princdebola201:
mkpurumiri addicts will rather be in their slave master in North pant that compete for power

Fahdiga:
It is the turn of the east to produce the president or everyone goes their separate ways

The illogicality of this choice is more than obvious. This goes a long way to expose the naivety and lack of requisite political arithmetic (logic) in the brains of those who made these propositions to the President.

The record of the support the party enjoys from each and every geo-political zone of the country is very open and glaring. In the 2015 presidential election, the APC got 2.411 million votes from the Northcentral; 2.848 million from the Northeast; the Northwest gave the party 7.115 million votes; while the Southeast gave 198,778 votes. The Southwest brought 2.433 million, and the Southsouth 418, 590.

In the 2019 presidential election as well, the Northwest brought 5.995 million votes to the APC; the Northeast gave 3.465 million; the Northcentral gave 2.465 million votes; Southwest mustered 2.036 million; Southeast gave 403, 968 and Southsouth brought 1.051 million votes to the party.

LeoDeKing:
Tell them.

He who has ears, let him hear.

adefitim:
Op run for safety

Vaughanlanrewaj:
The record of the support the party enjoys from each and every geo-political zone of the country is very open and glaring. In the 2015 presidential election, the APC got 2.411 million votes from the Northcentral; 2.848 million from the Northeast; the Northwest gave the party 7.115 million votes; while the Southeast gave 198,778 votes. The Southwest brought 2.433 million, and the Southsouth 418, 590.

QED.
Presidency is coming South. And SW it is.
Asiwaju Tinubu BAT2023 issagoal. Presidency is coming to my Lagos city

Fahdiga:
Then APC has lost the election even before any vote has been cast. Power should remain in the north instead

osinbanjoisaliar:

This your dream too sweet I no go lie. Una don collect slap wella but una neva tire. Make I give you the short stori. Anytime wen north want something dem go send pesin like El rufai to go meet Baba Iyaloja. El rufai go tell am say him be the oga at the top for Buhari presidency. Say make baba dobale for buhari request. If him dobale buhari go dash am main prize. After baba Iyaloja don bend small, and time don dey reach for the prize giving ceremony, baba Iyaloja go go Aso Rock to go collect ein share. But Elrufai go dey on AWOL, him no go dey anywhere, worse sef him phone go dey switched off. Na pantami go con answer baba. If Baba Iyaloja demand for him gift, pantami go just laff in Swahili. If baba start to dey shout, pantami go tear am 2 hot slaps, baba go start to dey cry. Na den Garba Shehu go con show. Garba Shehu go con pursue pantami, and go con clean baba eyes. Him go con tell baba make him no worry say na him b d real oga at the top for buhari presidency. Say next time make him meet am for d prize giving. But now prize don finish, make baba Iyaloja just manage diz 500,000 for now. Baba go con smile, con tink say next time tins go betta. After all him don meet the real oga at the top. Na so dem dey take whine Jagaban since 2015

Dapinski:

https://thenationonlineng.net/2023-southeast-southsouth-cant-produce-apc-candidate/

Dapinski:

https://thenationonlineng.net/2023-southeast-southsouth-cant-produce-apc-candidate/