livinbygrace:


Enough of all this epistle and Structure ,strategy,Sargacity,ability nonsense.
In 1999 ,Ganiyu Dawodu was more influential and respected politician in Lagos and people thought that AD governorship ticket would be given to him,but was given to TInubu (underdog) as a then .
In 2007,Odili was political heavy and many people thought he would be favorites ,but OBJ favored Jonathan.
Does Jonathan have all the above mentioned qualities for him to become president ?
Same goes to Ambode,Sanwo olu and many others?Even Amaechi never contested in Rivers election and he became governor through the court .
So it’s only a newbie or JJc that would believed Tinubu would be given the ticket ahead of Osinbajo .
The heavyweight have always been the victim”.Quote me anywhere

LillyandDaisy:

Nice explanation, but what should we call it if not ‘greed’ why will a king maker want to become a king?

MikoB:


You are very correct! Come to think of it, how can a VP summons, the governors, Senators and the reps for a meeting, without buhari's approval? The stystem of the presidential primary coming up will be different from the chairmanship convention, the presidential will be the photocopy and repeat of 2014 primaries which brought buhari, it will look clean and clear but the power that be would have given instructions. That's my take

Fiscus105:



I'm very pleased for your education, and I think you are correct. Meanwhile, the same way Osinbanjo will win on the structure of Buhari.

1.It's only a blind who dnt know for now that Buhari is surporting osinbajo.

2.the same Reps and Senate that cannot say pim" during recent concluded apc elections


Tinubu camp knows that Osinbanjo is fully backed by Buhari and that's why is camp had been jiltery and more reason they are lunching more than normal rockets to the personality of Osinbanjo.

You may agree or disagree, Nigeria president is powerful to do and undo not even during Buhari reign. As it stands now, it will take devine intervention for tinubu to win.

Integrity1992:
12 signs why Tinubu won’t get APC Presidential ticket

1. The Generals from Alani Akinrinade to TY Danjuma, IBB etc do not want Asiwaju to contest. Akinrinade & Danjuma asked him to withdraw from the race and analysed to him the danger of losing everything if he contested the primaries and lost. General Akinrinade is close to Asiwaju and does not want him to lose face post the election.

2. The Governors told him at the meeting he had with them that they would not support him. They accused him of being obsessed with power. They reminded him of how he snubbed them when they pleaded with him to support Ambode and Obaseki.

3. Afenifere leaders are totally against his presidential ambition. Olu Falae and Baba Fasoranti pointedly told him while Ayo Adebanjo has never hidden his disdain for Asiwaju's presidential ambition.

4. His health challenges are too overwhelming to be ignored. Nigerians want a healthy president who will be available to lead the country out of the woods.

5. Too many faux pas. Since announcing his intention to contest, Asiwaju's campaign has been bogged down with self-inflicted errors through wrong pronouncements from asking people to renew obsolete voter's cards to the threat of violence. People doubt his mental capacity even though he insists he has the capacity to lead.

6. Avoidable rift with NURTW. Tinubu sided with MC Oluomo against the NURTW which has a nationwide reach. Traditionally, Tinubu's camp enjoyed a good rapport with the body during elections. That base is no longer there.

7. The aspirant the stakeholders in the party is considering now a PYO . Asiwaju is not on President Buhari's radar and the President has told close associates he will never hand over power to Tinubu or Atiku because of the concern over greed and corruption. Fayemi and Amosun may also declare their intention any moment from now but once the party decides on consensus to support PYO, they will throw their weight behind him. Fayemi and Amosun's declaration will further enfeeble Asiwaju's ambition. Of course, Fayemi and Amosun would like to win but they realise that their chances may be slim.

8. The general consensus in the South West is that PYO stands a better chance to win at the general election than Asiwaju. Some even believe that Asiwaju himself knows. They therefore cannot understand why he is playing the spoiler role.

9. Almost all members of the Tinubu original power/intellectual base and allies when he was Governor are not in support of his Presidential ambition. Aregbesola, Afikuyomi, Ojudu, Onanuga, Alake, Fasola etc. Most of them may work for PYO.

10. Discerning people have compared Lagos with Dubai in 1999 when Tinubu took over as Governor and has been the power behind the throne since then. There is no basis for comparison between what Dubai has become between 1999 and now and what Lagos has become in the intervening period in spite of the enormous resources of Lagos. They pinned it down to one source: the avarice of Tinubu. They do not see how Nigeria can make the kind of progress the people want with Asiwaju's leadership style. What the country wants and needs is a selfless leader who will work for the best interest of the people.

11. Above all the nation won’t survive a Muslim - Muslim presidency. It is too dangerous to try and Tinubu is insisting on that. It was for this same reason he could not be VP to both Atiku and Buhari at different times. The non acceptance of this is not even from the Christians but from fellow Christians.
12. His greed is believed to have no comparison. Some said it could only be compared to that of Abacha. Recently he moved to an 11 million pounds house in London transferred to him by Madam Deziani in 2016 as payment for protection from the administration which they believed he brought to being. Another luxury apartment owned by the same Deziani and transferred to him has been located in New York and the government of Nigeria has filed actions to recover them.

Gorge Udom.

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

deltaprincess:


The most myopic assessment I have ever read this year.

I don't understand how in your wildest imagination you cannot see the writing on the wall already. All the odds favor Tinubu. He has Lagos and Kano delegates in his pocket. He has been endorsed by the National Assembly both active and former. The House are in his armpit. He doesn't need to give anyone money to vote him, he did that last election, majority of the Hoyse of Reps from APC he sponsored....
The only person that can defeat him in the APC is Buhari, the last time I checked, he is not contesting.
The primaries will be done very quickly. Tinubu will easily be victorious.

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

buckeyemedia:
Neither is it the king of the Jungle, he will be humbled like MKO Abiola.

Donshegxy10:
Firstly about age and background, there was no argument in 93,99 and 2003 when tinubu won elections in lagos, why now?
His he a yoruba man, a nigerian? If yes then where he came from doesnt matter.

Educational qualifications, requirement for presidency is a primary school leaving certificate, this is a man that has a university degree, his degree with an outstanding hons award was verified from chicago, this is someone that went to become an executive in over 3 international organisations, you cant dispute his qualifications.

About deputy, leave it to tinubu, he will find a well accepted northern christian, for example dogara is a christian and he rose up to become the number 4 man in nigeria in the midst of muslims.

Baggages.......
Show me 1 politician among the top aspirant without a baggage.

In 2019, when wike who was in charge of pdp wanted tambuwal and atiku brought money, why didnt they vote tambuwal instead.

Politics is about structure, aliances and money.

No nigerian politician as of today has helped, impacted and elevate people the way tinubu has done.

On ambode.......
If you are intune with lagos politics you will understand that ambode outsting was not tinubu's doing, it was the work of mandate group, who has the highest number of apc membership in lagos then, it was led by aregbesola and cardinal odunbaku.
Ambode stepped on many toes.

Does osinbajo has a structure to win apc primary, or does he has the money to spend.

Osinbajo is a featherweight politically, masses may like him but the delegate that will vote at the primaries knows only JAGABAN.

Tinubu is a strategist and a winner, i just hope some of you people will show your face after the primaries when osinbajo is humbled like ambode.

Its just a matter of weeks, let us be patient.

Dsalvo:


Amaechi is not in consideration. Forget his 'smoke screen' challenge. APC candidate will 100% be from the SW.

NaijaCowFarm:
Leadership is not a popularity contest - Adams Oshomole

It is not arguable that Tinubu has a very large political structure. It is also not arguable that Tinubu can defeat Osinbajo in an Open Ballot system, but APC primaries are not going to be an open ballot system where people queue behind their candidates, rather it is going to be an Open-Secret Ballot system. In an open-ballot system, once I vote against you, you know, so I will be reluctant to vote another after assuring you or collecting your money. However, in an Open-Secret ballot, I can assure you that I will vote for you, collect your money yet vote my "heart".

Now on the day of the APC primaries, these are the facts that would be very clear:

Tinubu is too old to govern effectively: With the hindsight of Buhari's challenges, APC would rather go for a younger and much healthier candidate than an old and sick Tinubu. This is a clear advantage that Osinbajo would have. Most of the delegates would be easily swayed towards Osinbajo right inside the ballot cage, where they would thumb-print their ballot, fold it and come out openly to cast it in the ballot box. Mark you, it is going to be the same ballot box for all candidates, so you cannot know who was voted until the ballots are sorted and counted.

Tinubu's bad faith towards Ambode: The bad deed that Tinubu did to Ambode is still fresh in the minds of the governors, both single-term and second-term governors. it is on record that the governors overwhelmingly rejected the direct primaries simply because Tinubu and his men in NASS arranged to have them treated like Ambode. moreso, it was reported that the APC governor's forum led by Atiku Bagudu (who is still in charge by the way), went to Tinubu's residence in Abuja to beg and prostrate to the Jagaban to allow Ambode to complete his tenure, but baba shuns them. Now, he is running after the same Bagudu, even going to the Kebbi Lodge to beg then. They are sure to require their pound of flesh on behalf of Ambode.

Religious sentiments: Since 2015 Nigeria has been governed by a Muslim, Muhammadu Buhari. If another Muslim from the South takes over from Buhari in 2023, the Muslims would have had another 8 years, making a total of 16. Now when power returns to the North, obviously another Muslim would take over for another 8 years. In total, the Muslims would be president from 2015 - to 2039, a whopping 24 uninterrupted years. That is NOT FEASIBLE. Hence, rational as the delegates are, they would avoid such a trap that would easily hand power back to the PDP. The delegates would rather vote for Osinbajo than Tinubu.

Running mate wahahala: We all recall the challenges that Buhari faced in choosing a running mate in 2015. Buhari was under pressure to avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015, even with over 10 million Northern votes in the kitty. Tells that with a Tinubu's candidacy, it would be tougher for APC. Firstly, Tinubu does not have the cult following that Buhari commanded in 2015. Secondly, the North would never accept a Northern Christian VP, this is an unwritten law. Adopting such would mean FAILURE in the North. Hence the only option that Tinubu would have is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which would FAIL woefully at elections. Even APC NEC would advise against such a move. The obvious alternative would be Osinbajo.

Unaccounted Baggages: Accountability is the acceptance of responsibility for one's own actions. It implies a willingness to be transparent, allowing others to observe and evaluate one's performance. Integrity is the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness. Measured on these two words, Osinbajo would beat Tinubu by a clear distance. Firstly, Tinubu has held Lagos to a stranglehold for the past 23 years. He has made sure that his son controls all the key revenue-generating sectors of the state, the numerous toll gates, etc. His daughter controls all the markets in Lagos, his son-in-law is in NASS, and his wife is a senator for life, he receives 10% tithes from Lagos State. These are baggages that Nigeria's state cannot accommodate. Even now, he has closed NURTW in Lagos and handed it over to his cronies. Is this the type of person that Nigeria wants to give power over the nation and national treasury and power?
Responsible delegates would avoid such a person because, when push goes to shove, Nigerians would be better off without such baggages. Hence the Osinbajo appeal would suffice.

Academic and foundational credence: Tinubu's state of origin, early education, age, and birth are all mysteries. Noone knows where he is from. Noone knows his father, no one knows where he got his first school leaving certificate nor his high school certificate nor diploma. All we hear is that he graduated from some University in the USA. There are those that say that his daughter is 61 years old while Tinubu is claiming 70 years old. That is a mystery too many to be overlooked. Hence Osinbajo would come as a sterling candidate to sell rather than a Tunubu with these baggages of unexplained mysteries.

Conclusion: Osinbajo would trounce Tinubu in APC primaries. However, APC may not form the next government, no matter who they field!

adelaja70:

IF APC mistakenly pick Osinbajo.. APC will lose the election.

MikoB:


You are very correct! Come to think of it, how can a VP summons, the governors, Senators and the reps for a meeting, without buhari's approval? The stystem of the presidential primary coming up will be different from the chairmanship convention, the presidential will be the photocopy and repeat of 2014 primaries which brought buhari, it will look clean and clear but the power that be would have given instructions. That's my take

Tinubuadvocate:
A total nonsense.

Mandate2023:



U better wake up.....APC presidency is going to SW, all dis nairaland clown sef

Hw will Amaechi win d primary....less I forget u guys r expecting consensus.....funny....go and check d history of election in Nigeria...Jonathan was lucky coz of yaradua death....abiola beat northern candidates in d north, he many governors can stand with Amaechi today as we speak...dey will only give him there word which is not d reality....no one can become d president without d SW and am not saying dis coz am yoruba

adelaja70:

Bro.. Always use your brain. GEJ was Yardua VP.. And only a fool would believe a southerner will replace another Southerner in 2003 election...

Help2020:

Have you asked why they don't want tinubu and want Osibanjo a Yoruba man? If not for selfishness your likes are supposed to also hate tinubu,but no,you can't reason properly. Spit on your forehead

Dsalvo:


Amaechi is not in consideration. Forget his 'smoke screen' challenge. APC candidate will 100% be from the SW.

wirinet:

Political naivity.

But Obasanjo was in consideration in 1999, when he won the primaries against seasoned politicians like Atiku and Ekwueme and won the presidency straight from prison

Yaradua won the presidency was in consideration when he won the president from his sick bed in Germany.

Even Jonathan was not in consideration when he won the Vice president and the president two years later without any political base, even in his native Bayelsa.

sokera:
that is your problem , what I know is Tinubu is Osibanjo and Osibanjo is Tinubu… you don’t know anything about politics

Help2020:
. If you like called osinbajo tinubu, we want Osinbajo,that ole can never smell Asorock. He should continue enjoying Lagos money,that Nigeria money he is eyeing is bigger than him. Tank u

sokera:
yes I am in support of any of them … as long as it’s not going to Igbo land and Fulani land … thank you

Tareq1105:


Tinubu is just being stubborn.

Tinubu cannot be president and he knew this but he's just lobbying to see if he can change anything.

The Northern governors want a Christian president from the south and that's the permutation that made Osinbajo to declare.

They need a Christian president so that one of the Governors would be his Vice.

Alagidi ni Tinubu. He's ignoring it bcoz he has money.

Osinbajo wouldn't spend money and you'll see what will happen.

It's not about the most popular but the most acceptable under the current circumstances.

E so fun ko rora na owo.

Iyadesa:
It's seems we are underating the Likes of Ameachi here

wirinet:

Political naivity.

But Obasanjo was in consideration in 1999, when he won the primaries against seasoned politicians like Atiku and Ekwueme and won the presidency straight from prison

Yaradua won the presidency was in consideration when he won the president from his sick bed in Germany.

Even Jonathan was not in consideration when he won the Vice president and the president two years later without any political base, even in his native Bayelsa.