Parachoko:
Who com be Osinbanjo supporters? The man might just disgrace himself at the primary.

Lol...I wanted to write this.
It looks like it's between Tinubu and Amaechi.
I'm expecting Fayemi to officially enter the race this week. His entrance will affect Amaechi because they share a common political circle.

SledgeHammerer:




Lol...... that your last paragraph na trouble maker own ooooo

But na true talk naa

There is only one person that can stop Tinubu and that will be Buhari but that will also mean the end of APC if Buhari fail to be neutral.

The only trump card Buhari can play is to support Osinbajo openly before the primaries, like that he will divide Asiwaju loyalty base.

In any mode of primaries whether direct or indirect, Tinubu will win. Tinubu is a kind of politician that knows how to network, most of the delegates stand to gain a lot supporting him than against him.

He also do not have the culture of use and dump. If I am to be a delegate also, I will vote for Tinubu.

garfield1:


Kwara gov may not be with tinubu.remember he has fallen out with lai Mohammed.am not sure akume will still be with tinubu,his boy Emma jime is with amechi.jigawa is with amechi or so it seems.I think omo agege is with tinubu,he has always supported oshiomhole same with sylva

Kwara governor is 100% with Tinubu. Lai Mohammed is inconsequential here and Tinubu has already taken side with the governor in their unnecessary ego battle.

LegendHero:
There is only one person that can stop Tinubu and that will be Buhari but that will also mean the end of APC if Buhari fail to be neutral.

The only trump card Buhari can play is to support Osinbajo openly before the primaries, like that he will divide Asiwaju loyalty base.

In any mode of primaries whether direct or indirect, Tinubu will win. Tinubu is a kind of politician that knows how to network, most of the delegates stand to gain a lot supporting him than against him.

He also do not have the culture of use and dump. If I am to be a delegate also, I will vote for Tinubu.

Correct.

donphilopus:


But na true talk naa

Those guys nor just dey relevant for any permutation. Lol..

nisai:
Correct.

Brother, you get it!

Patriot9:
This is my own little analysis.
I drew the table based on my little knowledge in politics.
However, I mainly focused on the two big guns (Tinubu and Amaechi).
I stand to be corrected

Now I am beginning to see why many people are saying Osinbanjo is a damage control (plan B).
They need him to reduce the voting strength in South south and south east and some christian states in north central and being a Christian he is.

OSIBANJO WILL NOT GET VOTES IN THE REGIONS YOU MENTIONED.IF HE IS REDUCING VOTES ITS GOING TO BE DOING THAT IN HIS SW REGION

LegendHero:
There is only one person that can stop Tinubu and that will be Buhari but that will also mean the end of APC if Buhari fail to be neutral.

The only trump card Buhari can play is to support Osinbajo openly before the primaries, like that he will divide Asiwaju loyalty base.

In any mode of primaries whether direct or indirect, Tinubu will win. Tinubu is a kind of politician that knows how to network, most of the delegates stand to gain a lot supporting him than against him.

He also do not have the culture of use and dump. If I am to be a delegate also, I will vote for Tinubu.

What exactly will Tinubu do to APC when(not even if) Buhari dumps him

SledgeHammerer:



Lol...I wanted to write this.
It looks like it's between Tinubu and Amaechi.
I'm expecting Fayemi to officially enter the race this week. His entrance will affect Amaechi because they share a common political circle.

I wander who they push the man

He does not have a party structure anywhere, I wan see the magic e go do next month sha.

cktheluckyman:

What exactly will Tinubu do to APC when(not even if) Buhari dumps him

Buhari can't even dump or work against him.

donphilopus:


Razaq should still be with Tinubu. His fight with Lai is in-house i.e. within Kwara State if I'm not mistaken. I dunno of Akume though. When Jigawa State governor hosted Amaechi recently, remember they only spent 5 minutes and he avoided endorsing him! You can check dailytrust! Now I remember Omo-Agege should be with Tinubu but not so sure of Sylva (though Tinubu once stood with him in 2016 or so during Bayelsa guber. polls). Let's see how it goes though.

Am not sure of razak but with him being increasingly isolated,he might fall back to tinubu with the saraki camp restrategizing and sdp getting stronger. But gbemisola is deputy to amechi and may sway some delegates to him...

Akume has been loyal to tinubu but tinubu has been disappointing him firstly in the Senate president contest and recently party chair so he might disappoint... I agree with you on badaru though I dont trust him,bagudu ans buni.. Normally,more than half of the delegates should go with tinubu

SledgeHammerer:



Lol...I wanted to write this.
It looks like it's between Tinubu and Amaechi.
I'm expecting Fayemi to officially enter the race this week. His entrance will affect Amaechi because they share a common political circle.

Very true

seunmsg:


Kwara governor is 100% with Tinubu. Lai Mohammed is inconsequential here and Tinubu has already taken side with the governor in their unnecessary ego battle.

Am not sure tinubu is with razak.

Anyway anyhow, beyond any analysis and calculations, Osinbajo is the 2023 presidential candidate. Mark this post after primary. All this analysis will change in the next 2 weeks

garfield1:


Am not sure tinubu is with razak.

I guess you don’t know how AbdulRahman emerged as the candidate of APC in 2019 against Lai Mohammed’s wishes. Tinubu is 100% with AbdulRahman.

garfield1:


Am not sure tinubu is with razak.

Abdul Razak is in Tinubu's camp.

jiz:
Anyway anyhow, beyond any analysis and calculations, Osinbajo is the 2023 presidential candidate. Mark this post after primary. All this analysis will change in the next 2 weeks

Lol

Make una keep on pushing Osinbanjo. I can't wait to see the magic he wan perform next month.

Parachoko:
I wander who they push the man

He does not have a party structure anywhere, I wan see the magic e go do next month sha.

They're waiting for anointing oil. Lol...

SledgeHammerer:



They're waiting for anointing oil. Lol...

seunmsg:


I guess you don’t know how AbdulRahman emerged as the candidate of APC in 2019 against Lai Mohammed’s wishes. Tinubu is 100% with AbdulRahman.

I didn't oh.please remind me.I thought he emerged candidate with the blessings of lai and those pdp members who left the party for saraki.i thought lai introduced him to tinubu,it is dele belgore that I know tinubu supports

If tinubu wins then APC is skrewed ....cos it will be a Muslim/Muslim ticket. Christian body no go gree

Parachoko:
Lol

Make una keep on pushing Osinbanjo. I can't wait to see the magic he wan perform next month.

Yar Adua never had a political structure across Nigeria...This politics last last na consensus.

garfield1:


I didn't oh.please remind me.I thought he emerged candidate with the blessings of lai and those pdp members who left the party for saraki.i thought lai introduced him to tinubu,it is dele belgore that I know tinubu supports

Lol, Lai was not in support of AbdulRahman. Tinubu imposed him on Lai Mohammed and the party.

ruggedtimi:
Yar Adua never had a political structure across Nigeria...This politics last last na consensus.

Are you guys not tired of this Consensus talk? Consensus is not even recognise in APC constitution for the presidential ticket. The ticket can only be gotten through a direct or indirect election.

Have you forgotten Yardua had Obasanjo? Without Obasanjo, Yardua would have never gotten PDP ticket not to talk of becoming a president.

ruggedtimi:
If tinubu wins then APC is skrewed ....cos it will be a Muslim/Muslim ticket. Christian body no go gree

The way you guys dey always talk dey make me laugh

Can you explain why you think the APC will present a Muslim/Muslim ticket?

Parachoko:
The way you guys dey always talk dey make me laugh

Can you explain why you think the APC will present a Muslim/Muslim ticket?

north will not pick a Christian

Parachoko:
Are you guys not tired of this Consensus talk? Consensus is not even recognise in APC constitution for the presidential ticket. The ticket can only be gotten through a direct or indirect election.

Have you forgotten Yardua had Obasanjo? Without Obasanjo, Yardua would have never gotten PDP ticket not to talk of becoming a president.

you mentioned osinbajo doesn't have a political structure, trying to let you know Buhari last can pick osinbajo and that's the final

ruggedtimi:
you mentioned osinbajo doesn't have a political structure, trying to let you know Buhari last can pick osinbajo and that's the final

Even if Buhari choose Osinbanjo, they will still slug it out at Eagles Square.

ruggedtimi:
north will not pick a Christian

There are Christians in the North that can be a Deputy to a president from the South.

donphilopus:


Lol. Tinubu will win at least 18 States. No doubt! He will win Adamawa thru Ribadu, Bauchi thru Dogara and other heavyweights there, Borno thru Shettima and Yobe would be evenly shared if Ahmed Lawan doesn't contest and support Tinubu. If Buni supports Tinubu, he would clearly win there as Buni and Lawan are men of the moment in that State. Goje may likely support Amaechi since they both left PDP while Inuwa Yahaya may oppose his aspirant since they are no longer in good terms politically. If he decides to support Tinubu, Tinubu may likely win Gombe too but Amaechi would garner some votes there. Where I'm not sure Tinubu would win in the northeast is Taraba. I dunno much about that place.

In the northwest, Tinubu would win Katsina provided Buhari is neutral as Abu Ibrahim and the governor are solidly behind him. Without typing much, we all know Kano is for Tinubu. Ordinarily, Amaechi should have won Kaduna but he has fallen out with el Rufai. We all saw how Tinubu was welcomed to the State when he paid them a condolence visit. Tinubu may likely win Kaduna. The likes of Yerima would surely support Tinubu so I believe he should win Zamfara. Kebbi might favour Amaechi but I can't say now. Jigawa governor has since endorsed Tinubu so he should get the State as well. With Wammako in Sokoto, it's a done deal for Tinubu there.

As for North Central, Tinubu would get Kwara State as the governor there is his loyalist. The godfather of Benue, George Akume would also deliver Benue as he is Tinubu's longtime ally. Niger State governor is with Tinubu as well so winning there shouldn't be his problem. The comedian called Yahaya Bello should win his state though while Plateau should go to Amaechi because the governor is his friend. Nasarawa may also go to Amaechi too but not so sure.

We all know he should clear the southwest so no need writing anything concerning that.

In the South South, Edo delegates may likely queue behind Tinubu because of Oshiomhole. Cross River State governor seems to be with Tinubu too but Amaechi might win there. Delta should go to Amaechi too because of Omo-Agege. If Akpabio doesn't contest, anybody can win Akwa Ibom unless he later declares his support for any of the aspirants. I wouldn't want to comment on Bayelsa as I don't know who Sylva supports.

The Southeast has just 838 delegates while Kano and Katsina alone have 849 delegates so I wouldn't wanna disturb myself writing anything. They should support whoever they feel like supporting as their votes wouldn't change anything.

Assumptions assumptions
Where is Buhari role in all these or u think Buhari and malami decision to include consensus is for theatrics.

What if Buhari prints only one form for presidential primaries like obj

What if tinubu is disqualified.

U guys assume buhari has zero interest in who succeds him

You have to give it to Tinubu. He's a master tactician...looking at these numbers, I now understand why he focused his stakeholder engagements to select regions.