IfnobeGod20:
I have done this analysis before. Lagos is 80% for Tinubu. He cannot get the whole delegates because of some aggrieved members.
In Osun, Tinubu will take 60 to 70% there while Osinbajo will scoop the rest.
In Ogun, Osinbajo will lock it down by at least 90% while Tinubu will take the rest.
In Oyo, it will be a slight victory for Tinubu there because of his strong foot soldiers still there. The winning margin should be between 55/45.
In Ondo, I can bet that if Fayemi will not contest or he probably contest but step down, Osinbajo will win big here but if not Fayemi will scoop the vote in Ondo. Fayemi is a close friend of Aketi and both are having issue with Tinubu.
In Ekiti, that is a comfort zone for Fayemi but if he doesn't contest, Osinbajo will clear that state with big margin, no doubt with that because Fayemi and Ojudu would want to make a statement that they are in control of their state.

All wishful thinking.
Tinubu has Lagos 100% which aggrieved members, why are you people always trying to lie to yourself? Tinubu will take 90% of Osun, go and look at the governorship primaries.
Oyo state APC are still loyal to Ajimobi and Tinubu will get 80% of the votes. Senator Ajibola Bashiru, Gov Oyetola and Baba Akande will make sure every delegate going to the convention is BATified, even Ogbeni is trying to return to the BAT fold.
Ogun has about 50% loyal to Yayi and Segun Osoba who are stuanch Tinubu people.
Ekiti and Ondo is Toss.

Well all these permutations doesnt even Matter. Tinubu is winning Kwara, Nassarawa, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Bornu, Edo, Delta, Benue and Kebbi.

Uzor Kalu has Abia, Umahi has Ebonyi, Amaechi has Rivers and may be Kaduna, Yaya Bello has Kogi, Hope Uzodimma gives Imo and Anambra to anyone he wishes. Other states are coin toses

funshint:
Some people will just come out and start making nonsense analysis. Among all his co-aspirants how many of them has the kind of followership Tinubu enjoys in the north? Apart from SW states; at the moment Tinubu has Kano, Kaduna and Bornu states with him. Not talking of other states for now o.

Tinubu has Nassarawa, Katsina, Niger, Kwara and Benue too. I dont know of Kaduna ooo, Elrufai is somehow.

I HATE MOST to hear of this murderer's candidate"...after killing millions of Nigerians with his foot soldiers as bandits and herdsmen of which he's the Governor general yet he wants to chose a candidate. May ALLAH punish him forever.

Echoban:


Only those who sit and digest media news reason all this. Come down to SW and u would discover this write up holds no much water.

I'm not ruling out the fact that PYO will take some but believe, won't be upto 10% of SW vote..

Even if Fayemi comes out, Tinubu will still win him in Ekiti, Tinubu will win Amosun in Ogun.

Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun are 90% Tinubu.

Take it or leave it.

you nailed the reality!

Gozac:

Correct analysis, Tinubu has advantage in SW and he will win SW. The battle ground is not for all the candidates.
I foresee APC using the consensus option, anyway PMB and PGF are the major deciding factors

Its too late for PMB to decide and he has said there wont be any imposition.

That is where his problem lies let them bring a popular Northern christian he will use as VP.They have chosen to conveniently ignore the fact that Northerners don't jokes with religion.

If wishes were horses beggars would ride, continue with continue with your imaginary analysis that suits your sentiment.Come next month ending your face go clear you will understand Naija no be Lagos.

emperor863:
Where I knew that the writer just wrote what he imagined was where he stated that Osun delegates would be shared because Oyelola is not in full control of the state and that Aregbesola would get some delegates.

The situation on the ground does not support that at all. Aregbesola does not have a single delegate and that is a fact. All the 308 delegates are for Tinubu, this is a fact I'm very sure of.

This is indeed a period of electioneering and all sorts of analysts are welcome. If not, how would a person that says he knows south west politics submit that Osinbajo will win majority of delegates from Oyo state. Oyo state APC that is firmly in control of Tinubu's men?

Na wah o.

Lol Most of these analysis are coming from Igb.os with a wishful thinking for Tinubu to lose. Someone even said Tinubu will only get 70% of Lagos. When he, Sanwo-olu and the GAC are the ones to chose the delegates to represent Lagos.
For Oyo, is a done deal for Tinubu, in Osun Tinubu is scoring 100%, The governor, Baba Akande and the 2 senators, State chairman including all the LGA party chairmen all all Tinubu supporters.
In Ogun, how did Dapo Abiodun even got power at first wasnt it Tinubu, Baba Akande and Former Gov Segun Osoba that shafted Amosun to install Abiodun, lol. If Abiodun mess up he wont get ticket for 2nd tenure.
Have you asked the reason Osinbajo's supporters are looking for PMB to endorse him as consensus candidate

CapitalCee:


All wishful thinking.
Tinubu has Lagos 100% which aggrieved members, why are you people always trying to lie to yourself? Tinubu will take 90% of Osun, go and look at the governorship primaries.
Oyo state APC are still loyal to Ajimobi and Tinubu will get 80% of the votes. Senator Ajibola Bashiru, Gov Oyetola and Baba Akande will make sure every delegate going to the convention is BATified, even Ogbeni is trying to return to the BAT fold.
Ogun has about 50% loyal to Yayi and Segun Osoba who are stuanch Tinubu people.
Ekiti and Ondo is Toss.

Well all these permutations doesnt even Matter. Tinubu is winning Kwara, Nassarawa, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Bornu, Edo, Delta, Benue and Kebbi.

Uzor Kalu has Abia, Umahi has Ebonyi, Amaechi has Rivers and may be Kaduna, Yaya Bello has Kogi, Hope Uzodimma gives Imo and Anambra to anyone he wishes. Other states are coin toses

And who want to gift Edo to Tinubu
Just asking?

hisexcellency34:
liar. Oyo APC is for grabs. No leader there since Ajimobi and Alao-Akala's death

Reason why you are politically irrelevant in Nigeria. When political leaders die, their structures are inherited.

All of you are clowns
Yes, I mean all the commenters above

You all think the delegates are voting for credibility sake?

Hell NO, delegates will vote highest bidder amongst the Aspirants.
And aside that, they will vote for that Candidate they know will give them freedom and flexibility to loot different offices they would hold should he becomes president.

funshint:
Some people will just come out and start making nonsense analysis. Among all his co-aspirants how many of them has the kind of followership Tinubu enjoys in the north? Apart from SW states; at the moment Tinubu has Kano, Kaduna and Bornu states with him. Not talking of other states for now o.

The weed you're smoking is it local one or foreign? Tinubu has Kaduna is the greatest hallucination of man to man. El-Rufai will never ordinarily support Tinubu except except Buhari says they should support him. El-Rufai is one those politicians that hate Tinubu kind of politics. El-Rufai will either support Amaechi or Osinbajo, know this and be at peace.
Meanwhile, it is not yet total for Tinubu in Kano state. No doubt he has a soft spot for Tinubu but pray that PMB doesn't have a candidate. If PMB has a candidate, the governor will dance towards the president. Know this and have peace of mind.
As at today, Bornu state is divided. The Amaechi DG is from Bornu, definitely he will have those dying for him there also come rain come sunshine. The former governor is truly die hard supporter of Tinubu but no body as at today know who Zulum is supporting but I am sure his mind will love to support his fellow academia. With this you can't be so sure Tinubu will take all in Bornu state.
You guys should stop been emotional and lay bear the plain thing on ground.

Emarvel:


And who want to gift Edo to Tinubu
Just asking?

Keep talking trash. Edo is in Tinubu's pocket. All the traitors like Amselem Ojezua who betrayed OSHIOMOLE are all gone to PDP with Obaseki and recieving bulala from Wike. Oshiobaba is handing Edo to wike

MikoB:

My brother yayi is just part of little contribution, but I'm telling you now the VP will take ogun and oyo conveniently, and would take ekiti if Fayemi doesn't run, there is an agreement on that already. I will come up with the states the VP will take in general on later date, do we'll to check other permutations from me in the past ,you guys really underate him and fortunately that has been a blessing for him to strategise and move. Thanks

talking like God almighty ! Pls. who are you? only you'll keep silent after primary.

CapitalCee:


Keep talking trash. Edo is in Tinubu's pocket. All the traitors like Amselem Ojezua who betrayed OSHIOMOLE are all gone to PDP with Obaseki and recieving bulala from Wike. Oshiobaba is handing Edo to wike

I laugh � � �

Rajiolaade:
talking like God almighty ! Pls. who are you? only you'll keep silent after primary.

Far from it, I am not God, but a reality checker, before the primaries most of you would have given up on your candidates, trust me.

Some of you will just sit at the comfort of your house spewing rubbish. Do you think delegates are the same as electorates. Former and present elective officials formed what is called delegates. Must of this your GAC would not even be part of delegate if they are not elective members of the party. Know that someone like Muiz and his group that have been roughing shoulder with the party in Lagos would prefer to vote Osinbajo than Tinubu. His group have been forming factional member for over two years now. Same in Osun.

CapitalCee:


All wishful thinking.
Tinubu has Lagos 100% which aggrieved members, why are you people always trying to lie to yourself? Tinubu will take 90% of Osun, go and look at the governorship primaries.
Oyo state APC are still loyal to Ajimobi and Tinubu will get 80% of the votes. Senator Ajibola Bashiru, Gov Oyetola and Baba Akande will make sure every delegate going to the convention is BATified, even Ogbeni is trying to return to the BAT fold.
Ogun has about 50% loyal to Yayi and Segun Osoba who are stuanch Tinubu people.
Ekiti and Ondo is Toss.

Well all these permutations doesnt even Matter. Tinubu is winning Kwara, Nassarawa, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Bornu, Edo, Delta, Benue and Kebbi.

Uzor Kalu has Abia, Umahi has Ebonyi, Amaechi has Rivers and may be Kaduna, Yaya Bello has Kogi, Hope Uzodimma gives Imo and Anambra to anyone he wishes. Other states are coin toses

IfnobeGod20:
Some of you will just sit at the comfort of your house spewing rubbish. Do you think delegates are the same as electorates. Former and present elective officials formed what is called delegates. Must of this your GAC would not even be part of delegate if they are not elective members of the party. Know that someone like Muiz and his group that have been roughing shoulder with the party in Lagos would prefer to vote Osinbajo than Tinubu. His group have been forming factional member for over two years now. Same in Osun.

Oga shut up. There will be delegate elections according to APC schedule, Muiz or whatever you call him and his group members will be weeded out of the delegate list. The statutory delegates that might not like Tinubu will not be up to 10, and Lagos will have about 400 delegates. All top stakeholders in Lagos are tinubu apologists

IfnobeGod20:

The weed you're smoking is it local one or foreign? Tinubu has Kaduna is the greatest hallucination of man to man. El-Rufai will never ordinarily support Tinubu except except Buhari says they should support him. El-Rufai is one those politicians that hate Tinubu kind of politics. El-Rufai will either support Amaechi or Osinbajo, know this and be at peace.
Meanwhile, it is not yet total for Tinubu in Kano state. No doubt he has a soft spot for Tinubu but pray that PMB doesn't have a candidate. If PMB has a candidate, the governor will dance towards the president. Know this and have peace of mind.
As at today, Bornu state is divided. The Amaechi DG is from Bornu, definitely he will have those dying for him there also come rain come sunshine. The former governor is truly die hard supporter of Tinubu but no body as at today know who Zulum is supporting but I am sure his mind will love to support his fellow academia. With this you can't be so sure Tinubu will take all in Bornu state.
You guys should stop been emotional and lay bear the plain thing on ground.

Now I can see you're ignorant of the latest development. El-Rufai and Buhari are no longer in good terms if you don't know. As for Amaechi et al, they won't get a single vote from the North. They have a lot of money to waste.

CapitalCee:


All wishful thinking.
Tinubu has Lagos 100% which aggrieved members, why are you people always trying to lie to yourself? Tinubu will take 90% of Osun, go and look at the governorship primaries.
Oyo state APC are still loyal to Ajimobi and Tinubu will get 80% of the votes. Senator Ajibola Bashiru, Gov Oyetola and Baba Akande will make sure every delegate going to the convention is BATified, even Ogbeni is trying to return to the BAT fold.
Ogun has about 50% loyal to Yayi and Segun Osoba who are stuanch Tinubu people.
Ekiti and Ondo is Toss.

Well all these permutations doesnt even Matter. Tinubu is winning Kwara, Nassarawa, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Bornu, Edo, Delta, Benue and Kebbi.

Uzor Kalu has Abia, Umahi has Ebonyi, Amaechi has Rivers and may be Kaduna, Yaya Bello has Kogi, Hope Uzodimma gives Imo and Anambra to anyone he wishes. Other states are coin toses

If you think Ogun State sons and daughters would leave their son and queue behind Tinubu, then, you don't know what you're saying. Both Yayi, Dapo and Osoba are not having issue with Osinbajo. They are not quarrelling and are in good and bonded relationship.
Meanwhile, some of these people that have declared would still step down, that I know and would later queue behind their preferred candidate or someone the party or president wish to support. Know this and be at peace with yourself.

kaylardz:
Tinubu will win in Lagos, osun and Oyo, share ogun with osinbajo and loose out in ondo and ekiti.
At the end, bale of Dollars will exchange hands and tinubu will win d primary with missive votes from north, South East and south south states.

Which Tinubu will win in South East?

Mynd44:

1. Tinubu gets Lagos and Osun.

2. Tinubu gets Ogun. Dapo Abiodun is not in charge of APC Ogun. It is more apparent from the fact that 60% of his cabinet are Yayi boys, he became governor from Yayi's structure. Only people in Ogun know this. Dapo and PYO are from the same place but how come you haven't seen Dapo actively supporting PYO? You want hin to upset YAYI so support for his second term can be withdrawn?
As for Amosun, he is not even in the party. I said it; he does not have a single Ogun delegate to vote for him

3. Oyo doesn't have a governor but the minister and the APC structure is still Ajimobi's and well…

4. Ekiti will be shared if Fayemi doesn't run and even at that, Ekiti delegates know their principal wont win and will most likely look out for themselves.

5. Ondo is anyhow

Best analysis so far
U really understand ogu politics very well...
Naa Osoba nd yayi get Ogun APC
Y Dapo no declare openly 4 PYO

Echoban:


Only those who sit and digest media news reason all this. Come down to SW and u would discover this write up holds no much water.

I'm not ruling out the fact that PYO will take some but believe, won't be upto 10% of SW vote..

Even if Fayemi comes out, Tinubu will still win him in Ekiti, Tinubu will win Amosun in Ogun.

Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun are 90% Tinubu.

Take it or leave it.

Even at dat PYO does not have any structures at Ogun APC
Ogun APC structure belong to YAYI nd former governor OSoba

hisexcellency34:
By Temidayo Akinsuyi 


https://independent.ng/how-osinbajo-fayemi-amosun-will-cut-tinubus-s-west-delegates-votes/

Reality is


Ogun key players are

Osoba, Gbenga daniel and a whole lots are for Tinubu...


Lagos

1000% Tinubu


OYO

85% TINUBU


Osun

90% Tinubu even rauf will not opposed Tinubu ..he may fight Oyetola


Ondo

The SAN is Tinubu
85%


Ekiti

Tinubu
50% 50%

Amerengues2:
Without mincing words, it's official that the presidential race is delicately poised to a frenetic end; The tension is growing; Betrayal is tilting to an unprecedented rooftop level;

Southwest has been infiltrated! The last paragraph got me and it isn't far from the truth. Tinubu, the political juggernaut and strategist is insidiously loosing his firm grip on Southwest. This shouldn't pose much of a threat to his ambition even if he marginally wins the primary.

In recent past, Southwest champions the most trickery, controversial, and divided region even though Tinubu still has a grip. His political base is getting infiltrated by the day.

My two cent: As much as the political analyst are coming out to analyse, there is still more denial, betrayal, backstabbing, and forgiveness in the offing; Be careful of your predictions

To thy tent oh Israel!

IS THIS BOLARINWA OLAJIDE

OBALOLA55:
IS THIS BOLARINWA OLAJIDE

You listen to too much of Nigerian info

emperor863:


Reason why you are politically irrelevant in Nigeria. When political leaders die, their structures are inherited.

The truth is that currently, Teslim Folarin has outsmarted all Ajimobi's supporters as clearly witnessed in the party's state convention that produced Isaac Omodewu, though a supposed Ajimobi boy but now fully committed to Teslim. The Ajimobi structure wanted Baba Abu Gbadamosi but Buni instead recognised Omodewu. When Osinbajo came to Ibadan on Friday, he was received and hosted by Tessy, member representing Ibadan North (jagaban) . Unless APC harmonises exco in Oyo, as it stands Tessy controls the Oyo APC with connivance of Amosun. Many Ajimobi supporters voiced this out even before convention

If Tinubu doesn't win the primary.. APC will split. iDesign | iPrint | iBrand A trial will surely convince you 08077230651

hisexcellency34:
By Temidayo Akinsuyi 


https://independent.ng/how-osinbajo-fayemi-amosun-will-cut-tinubus-s-west-delegates-votes/

With all due respect please, no bad energy. The kind of heart break Tinubu will get from the primaries might lead him to his grave. He should suspend his ambition in other to live long.

happney65:



Veekid what we were saying the other day

100%

Odidigboigbo:
Probably, you don't know how delegates elections works. Primary elections are not won in media. 99.9% of those shouting the name of one candidate or the other will not near the gate where primary elections are being decided. Primaries elections are mostly decided by party leaders not the electorates.

My post is referring to delegates not masses/electorate bro.