onegentleguy:
A line of disclosure...

Looking at the financial print of SEPLAT, I would prefer to sell/exit if I hold a stake therein.
Though current mkt trend and its sector dynamic is on a rising path, the coys last 2 financial print describes a position of accelerating risk ahead of feasible reward. (risk-reward margin benchmarked against CMP)

Using a mix of valuation model that discounts a fairly appreciable surrounding risk but attaches a generous growth margin in 2022 giving the favourable sector dynamic (ref: 0.15x/15% TTM... compounded run rate to YE), my FVE pegs @ approx N971.29.
...the coys last closing peg of N1,200 already equates to an over 23.5% premium.

Rating: Underweight (previous: Hold)

I would rather be friends with Mr[b] TOTAL and CONOIL than SEPLAT[/b] giving their CMPs.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
My advice? Pls follow your instinct.

#Edited

Interesting that you are comparing downstream companies with an upstream company.

First thing you look for when analysing an upstream company is the Reserve/Replacement ratio. That's the key reason why SEPLAT went for the Exxon Mobil acquisition

TOTAL and CONOIL are basically a trading/marketing companies. SEPLAT is an upstream company with different risk.

onegentleguy:
Digging further into the financial print of SEPLAT, I can sense that aside it's Nos, the coys current price rise beyond what I believe should be a FVE could quite possibly be news driven.

3 things...
• The plan to restructure and create alternative lines of oil lifting to help curb the present below capacity production levels and a possible transitioning to more profit-oriented assets to improve on the coys EM and AER and reduce CBR.

• An agreement to sell seplet energy shares for a net figure of $55M to one of it's JV partners. (this might not be unconnected to the dilutive effect on present EPS/EM levels)

• The likely completion of the acquisition of
Mobil Producing Unlimited, Nigeria (MPNU)

All this before the end of this yr.

That said, the coys current FP infers that risk is slightly ahead of the combination of reward and price.
So I still maintain my FVE as previously stated. (ref: N971.29)
...H1, 2022 will help clarify its value accretive potential relative to CMP.

Inference:
There are better coys to permute from the exchange right now.
If you must stay put with SEPLAT, then ensure your a trader/TA expert that understand the coys present trend, otherwise keep a very close track on it's Nos if your a long term investor.

Again, NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence still applies as always.

Enough said.

The alternative oil lifting (Amukpe - Escravos pipeline) is to primarily provide alternative export that reduces the reconciliation losses. Little to do with below capacity production levels. Basically, if you produce 100,000 barrels the terminal at Forcados (current export route) may receive only 50,000 barrels so the rest is LOST. That's what Tony Elumelu was crying about that led to the force Majeure declared at Bonny Terminal.

SEPLAT is selling a field that is considered uneconomical for them to produce. Little to do with any dilutive shares.

ukay2:


Thanks onegentleguy

Just thinking that TOTAL and COINOIL are in downstream while SEPLAT is in upstream?

Correct. They are really very different!

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35889_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR.pdf
Fidelity
Pat: slightly lower
Eps: same as last year 33kobo

Y una no want talkanout Oando. They are in all the streams naa.

wanaj0:


Interesting that you are comparing downstream companies with an upstream company.

First thing you look for when analysing an upstream company is the Reserve/Replacement ratio. That's the key reason why SEPLAT went for the Exxon Mobil acquisition

TOTAL and CONOIL are basically a trading/marketing companies. SEPLAT is an upstream company with different risk.

Interesting perspective @ Sir Wanajo.
...great input I must say!
Will look further into that part in italics.

By the way, I know that SEPLAT is an upstream player. ...was just looking at other cheaper alternatives in the oil & gas sector as a collective.

My view though was drawn from the coys CMP which I believe is slightly overpriced.
However, it's possible that investors are already pricing in the future earnings potential of the coy vis-a-vis their roadmap for 2022. (which you also highlighted)
As I said before, H2, 2022 Nos will help put things in better light.

Regards

wanaj0:


The alternative oil lifting (Amukpe - Escravos pipeline) is to primarily provide alternative export that reduces the reconciliation losses. Little to do with below capacity production levels. Basically, if you produce 100,000 barrels the terminal at Forcados (current export route) may receive only 50,000 barrels so the rest is LOST. That's what Tony Elumelu was crying about that led to the force Majeure declared at Bonny Terminal.

SEPLAT is selling a field that is considered uneconomical for them to produce. Little to do with any dilutive shares.

But the continues issue with the Trans Forcados pipeline is also part of the reason for lower production levels hence the need to sought alternative passage line through the Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline.
The CEO also hinted as much and appear to suggest that the company will seek to contract the lifting of its oil at the TFP to Chevron from Q3, 2022.

I do understand you though. Whatever is produced need to as much as possible be conserved. ...that, before the concern on capacity expansion.
The present high oil price will help offset the knock-in effect of below capacity production levels and support revenue margin.
...that way, there'll be some relief on CIM (cost to income peg in view) ensuring higher derived earnings from higher RRR (reserve/replacement ratio)

Thank you for throwing more light on this @ Wanajo.
It's been a while! ...trust you are doing great Sir.

Regards

onegentleguy:


But the continues issue with the Trans Forcados pipeline is also part of the reason for lower production levels hence the need to sought alternative passage line through the Amukpe-Escravos Pipeline.
The company' CEO hinted as much and appear to suggest that the company will seek to contract the complete of lifting of its oil at the TFP to Chevron from Q3, 2022.

I do understand you though. Whatever is produced need to as much as possible be conserved. ...that, before the concern on capacity expansion.
The present high oil price will help offset the knock-in effect of below capacity production levels and support revenue margin.
...that way, there'll be some relief on CIM (cost to income margin) ensuring higher derived earnings from higher RRR. (reserve/replacement ratio)

Thank you for throwing more light on this @ Wanajo.
It's been a while! ...trust you are doing great Sir.

Regards

By the way, that part in italics when implemented, I think, should be good news to a coy like CAVERTON.

I hope it comes down to <N1 before then though.

It is well.

@Wanajo, I salute. This husu. What of our guys, Wendi Wendi, samstone, father of 2, puming77, and co? Can you tell me more about your portfolios from then till now. I know you're a long term trader. Meanwhile, conoil is also into producing. They are in the upstream and downstream. Likewise total.

wanaj0:


Correct. They are really very different!

husu:
@Wanajo, I salute. This husu. What of our guys, Wendi Wendi, samstone, father of 2, puming77, and co? Can you tell me more about your portfolios from then till now. I know you're a long term trader. Meanwhile, conoil is also into producing. They are in the upstream and downstream. Likewise total.

CONOIL' upstream business segment is not part of the coys quoted entity. ...only the downstream marketing business unit is listed on the NGX.
The same can also be said of TOTAL.

The upstream players are SEPLAT and OANDO.
With the latter though, am not so sure if I can be emphatically positive.

Regards

From my own portfolio from 2007/2008 till now, zenith bank , uba , dangote sugar hasn't been doing badly. Others I don't understand them. e g Aiico, fcmb, fbn, union, oceanic( ETI), wema, Dunlop, not talking of bank phb, afribank, Skye bank that has gone extint. Oceanic( ETI) was where I put all my life savings then. The dividend alone in zenith has surpassed the purchase amount

samguru:


is JB attempting to reach KM 50 ni?

Comrade please allow JB reach and surpass KM50 in peace. Plenty of us here have been waiting for that movement since

husu:
From my own portfolio from 2007/2008 till now, zenith bank , uba , dangote sugar hasn't been doing badly. Others I don't understand them. e g Aiico, fcmb, fbn, union, oceanic( ETI), wema, Dunlop, not talking of bank phb, afribank, Skye bank that has gone extint. Oceanic( ETI) was where I put all my life savings then. The dividend alone in zenith has surpassed the purchase amount

Are you Mr. horlads of SMN?

onegentleguy:


On this (VITAFOAM), my FVE has now been adjusted upwards to N39.74 (previous: N31.4) following the release of its positively all-touching H1, 2022 financial print.
Now that's a near 72% premium from yesterday's closing price.

Rating retained at overweight/outperform.

...BUY!

NOTE: Due diligence still applies as always.

Thanks and weldone

onegentleguy:


As for MTN, my FVE has also been adjusted upwards to N268.3 (previous: N229.7) following the release of its much line improved Q1, 2022 financial print.
...and that, assuming a very conservative growth margin to YE and raking-off an above inflation risk premium. (ref: 40% margin off... on reality check given present growth constrain in the sector)

Rating retained on outperform.
...HOLD!

For those who sent me mails and messages on MTN following the govts recent restrictive policies... this, perhaps should help douse your worry and guide your decision-making going forward.

Again due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

thanks sir
weldone
please do similar thing to DANGCEM, WAPCO and BUA

jinnyz:
I just discovered that EDC securities is charging over 2% on trading fees which is highly ridiculous. Pls what other brokers are you using that their fees are low.

Morgan Capital plc

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35909_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_.pdf
Transcorp.
PAT did not improve like q4 of last year, but improved all the same from 1billion to 5billion.

ukay2:


thanks sir
weldone
please do similar thing to DANGCEM, WAPCO and BUA

Already did that on all 3 coys in time past.
WAPCO was the last a few days ago.
You might wish to surf through my previous posts for more guidance.

Regards

.

Bature1:
.

After the bull of the other day. Oando no go kill person. Let them just release 2021 results. 2019 and maybe 2020 results no go too good, we done hear.

Bature1:
.

Covid impacted year 2019 performance?

MORE Q1 2022
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35923_JULIUS_BERGER_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATE.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35908_INTERNATIONAL_BREWERIES_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_ST.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35929_JAPAUL_GOLD_AND_VENTURES_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_ST.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35930__UPDC_REAL_ESTATE_INVESTMENT_TRUST%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANC.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/NGX_Group_Plc_-_Q1_2022_UFS.PDF
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/NAHCO_-_Q1_2022_Accounts.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35937_AXA_MANSARD_INSURANCE_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATE.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35939_COURTEVILLE_BUSINESS_SOLUTIONS_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANC.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35940_CWG_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINA.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35813_TOTALENERGIES_MARKETING_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINAN.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35943_FIDSON_HEALTHCARE_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35925_ARBICO_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35912_MULTIVERSE_MINING_AND_EXPLORATION_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FIN.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35903_BUA_FOODS_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_202.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35909_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35883_ETERNA_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35889_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35899_CAVERTON_OFFSHORE_SUPPORT_GROUP_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINAN.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35892_LINKAGE_ASSURANCE_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35878_SMART_PRODUCTS_NIGERIA_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STAT.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35865_WEMA_BANK_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_20.pdf

Q4 2021
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35920_LEARN_AFRICA_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_20.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35900_UNIVERSITY_PRESS_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_F.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35913_RED_STAR_EXPRESS_PLC%20_QUARTER_4_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FO.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35936_TOURIST_COMPANY_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20_AUDITED_FINANCIAL_STA.pdf

CORPORATE ACTIONS
Final Dividend: 0.03k
Bonus Script: 6:5 (6 new for every existing 5 held)
Qualification Date: June 30, 2022
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35898_MCNICHOLS_CONSOLIDATED_PLC%20CORPORATE_ACTION_ANNOUNCEME.pdf
.

FLOUR MILLS ACQUIRED 71.69% STAKE IN HONEYWELL
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35927_FLOUR_MILLS_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20FLOUR_MILLS_OF_NIGERIA_PLC_.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35905_HONEYWELL_FLOUR_MILL_PLC%20HONEYWELL_FLOUR_MILLS_AND_FLO.pdf

* Acquisition price: N4.20...
* Acquisition done at an enterprise value of N80 Billion.....having put the HWG's debt to equity and other concerns into consideration.......
* Honeywell Flour Mills ceases to be a member of Honeywell Group with this Acquisition........
** FMN with estimated capacity of 9.600tn per day has now become the 2nd largest miller in Nigeria.....
** With the acquisition, FMN now controls 42% of market shares, next to OLAM which controls 44% with capacity of 11,140tn per day
*** How does this acquisition translate to more value for remaining shareholders? Maybe there'll be a buyout of minority shareholders in future OR share conversation thru merger......we wait and see....
*** Thru this acquisition and possible future merger, will the analysts eventually be right that HONEYWELL will deliver much better future value to shareholders? .....we watch and see how it all pans out......

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theafricareport.com/187124/flour-mills-nigeria-wants-a-bigger-slice-of-the-pie/amp/

Just saw Total Energies result. Good result, EPS rose from 8.75 to 12.86. Not a bad one. Hope they pay good interim dividend by q2.

husu:
@Wanajo, I salute. This husu. What of our guys, Wendi Wendi, samstone, father of 2, puming77, and co? Can you tell me more about your portfolios from then till now. I know you're a long term trader. Meanwhile, conoil is also into producing. They are in the upstream and downstream. Likewise total.

From December 2005 till date, my portfolio grew 26 times due to dividend reinvestment, regular Investments done weekly, monthly, quarterly or whenever I have the fund to buy.

I made major sales of my shares in 2007, 2008 and 2010 to buy some plots of land and to change my car.


The worst mistake anyone can make is to run away from the market when it is bearish

Bature1:
.

Points (i) and (ii) simply explain the reduction in earnings stated in AFS 2019 in comparison to AFS 2018. And since the 2020 results have not been audited there is no mention of the 2020 results.

The AFS 2019 is not expected to be great neither are the unaudited Qs for 2020, instead the stock price rallies have been based on the gradual increase in oil price since December 2020. Any negative action on share price in the coming week after release of AFS 2019 will simply be an opportunity for re-entry.

INTBREW back to profit...Hooe this will move the price a little

onegentleguy:


By the way, that part in italics when implemented, I think, should be good news to a coy like CAVERTON.

I hope[b] it comes down to <N1[/b] before then though.

It is well.

Na wa o.... those of us in the bus no wan hear this o

Tpharell:

Covid impacted year 2019 performance?

I had to login to laugh
Oando will not change its colour

Tpharell:

Covid impacted year 2019 performance?

Its covid 19 naaa not covid 20 .
The management of that company is very very pathetic.
Covid downturn started in 2020 for the rest of the world, burt that of oando started way back.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/35945_DAAR_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC%20_QUARTER_1_%20_FINANCIAL_STATEME.pdf
Daar communications is back to profit. Eps rise from -181kobo to 24kobo.
Which kind trap temptation be this