https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-elections-results-idAFLDE73G05B20110418
GEJ won

Benue
Taraba
Adamawa
Kogi
Kwara
Nasarawa
Plateau

7 states out of 19 in 2011



What does this tell us

THERE IS NO NORTH

We have North East North West and North Central


You need 25% in 24 states to win the presidency and those 7 states are up for grabs.

The idea that the north vote as one is fiction

With the activities of Fulani herdsmen in places like Benue the Northern vote is very likely to be split

Tinubu vs Atiku across the 19 northern states.How will it go?

IWinning the North is not about geeting 25% in 2/3 of the states.it is about winning the majority votes.For Tinubu to win he must be able to win the majority votes across the 19 Northern states.If the PDP presents a Northerner ,how exactly is he going to do that?

cktheluckyman:
Tinubu vs Atiku across the 19 northern states.How will it go?

None of them will be on the Ballot but their structures will contend against each other

You need to join the gang of realists and leave the rabble rousers
The drama. as usual , is to float kites for rabble rousers and in the end pretend to compromise

A realist analyses fact

Imagine if the powers brokers in Nigeria went to each person, Tinubu and a Atiku and said

Nominate 3 people

1.
2.
3


To be president and we will back them but you ,; retire, come and join us as kingmakers


Who would they choose


1.
2.
3.


Then

What about Buhari

1.
2.
3


If that was you exam question to graduate in a Three hour exam what would you write?




The person who becomes president will not be far from that .

In answering that question

recognize YOUR OWN wishes and ignore them. Focus on what you know not emotions.

If you do that and meditate on it you will be a "prophet"

aribisala0:
None of them will be on the Ballot but their structure will contend against each other

Lets see how it goes.I hiowever think Atiku will pick up the PDP ticket.The APC's ticket however is still uncertain

cktheluckyman:


Lets see how it goes.I hiowever think Atiku will pick up the PDP ticket.The APC's ticket however is still uncertain

Wike looks strong to me and I see a "compromise" as said before where Atiku might be asked to select someone. This is Nigeria and that is how it works Atiku and Tinubu are considered too old by the oligarchs who control the delegates

GEJ even tried; I'm not sure Atiku won up to 7 northern states in 2019

cktheluckyman:
IWinning the North is not about geeting 25% in 2/3 of the states.it is about winning the majority votes.For Tinubu to win he must be able to win the majority votes across the 19 Northern states.If the PDP presents a Northerner ,how exactly is he going to do that?

You are confusing yourself there is nothing like North In Electoral law
You get majority of votes cast across the whole nation

However people like to talk about winning the north

You can win a state and Jonathan won by getting majority in 2015 in

Adamawa,, Benue,Kogi Kwara,Nasarawa Plateau,Taraba

The point is that
There are states up for grabs in the North that vote differently from the majority of Northern states

aribisala0:

You are confusing yourself there is nothing like North In Electoral law
You get majority of votes cast across the whole nation

However people like to talk about winning the north

You can win a state and Jonathan won by getting majority in 2015 in

Adamawa,, Benue,Kogi Kwara,Nasarawa Plateau,Taraba

The point is that
There are states up for grabs in the North that vote differently from the majority of Northern states

Unlike GEJ Tinubu would lose the eleven states of the SS/SE

richiemcgold:
GEJ even tried; I'm not sure Atiku won up to 7 northern states in 2019

Atiku contested against a fellow northerner in 2019

cktheluckyman:

Unlike GEJ Tinubu would lose the eleven states of the SS/SE

That would be great!! but Tinubu will not even be on the ballot

cktheluckyman:

Atiku contested against a fellow northerner in 2019

and so?

is that why he could not even win 5 out of 19 states?

that's a lame excuse sir.

[s]

helinues:

[/s]

cktheluckyman:
Tinubu vs Atiku across the 19 northern states.How will it go?

Tinubu will not get APC ticket, so don't go there at all

cktheluckyman:

Unlike GEJ Tinubu would lose the eleven states of the SS/SE

The big shocker will be that Tinubu will even loose SW. A lot will depend on the candidate of the opposing party. It will be a fatal error and the burial of APC if Tinubu is allowed to fly their flag

aribisala0:
Wike looks strong to me and I see a "compromise" as said before where Atiku might be asked to select someone. This is Nigeria and that is how it works Atiku and Tinubu are considered too old by the oligarchs who control the delegates

Wike ? Lol you guys are affected with media noise ooh
Ayim would so beat wike in a one on one contest
Same with Peter obi
Tambuwal is above wike
Same with saraki
Make una stop to hype wike ...he is just a loud man with money