https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/05/03/2023-political-realities-that-annoy-and-heal/

As the party primaries draw near, it is sad to see many people still playing the same old sentimental politics which has left them perpetually on the back burner. Why do they do it? Is it that they are unteachable, or unreachable, or that they lack the ability to suppress their sentiments in favour of cold hard facts?
Political realities will always overcome political sentiments. That is a fact of life. So, in order to win, you do not cry over the realities, or argue about them. You simply understand these natural principles and then harness them.

One political reality is that the ONLY Southern candidates with name recognition in Northern Nigeria,
and especially the Northwest and Northeast, are Bola Tinubu and Yemi Osinbajo. Even Rotimi Amaechi does not have it. I know some people will not like to hear this, but the truth is bitter and better!
And amongst these Southern candidates, only Bola Tinubu stands a chance in the Northwest and Northeast, for almost the same reasons that Abiola stood a chance. Even Buhari, with his real or imaginary Northern-cult following, can’t persuade the core North to vote for a Christian pastor.

Another bitter, but better truth. Although people will like to hear butter lies.

Asking core Northerners to vote for Pastor Yemi Osinbajo, who, rightly or wrongly, is seen in the core North as a Christian fanatic, who carefully put members of the Redeemed Christian Church of God in key positions, is like asking Southerners to vote Isa Pantami, who was caught on tape expressing his delight at the death of non-Muslims!

Any sensible aspirant should cultivate the Northwest and Northeast. You can win the Presidency without the votes of one particular region I will not name because of their ability to insult more than their ability to vote. But you can’t win without the Northwest and the Northeast.

Alas, with the comments of many Southern aspirants, you would think that they can win the election based on bravado alone. Even the British tried to
win the heart of the North, though they were colonial masters. It is a reality we must face as long as Nigeria remains one country.

I have a lot of personal disdain for Bola Tinubu, who I believe lacks personal hygiene and morals. I also have reasons to believe that he is corrupt and grossly so. But despite my misgivings, he is acting more sensibly than other Southern aspirants in courting the North.

Osinbajo is just delusional. He thinks he can win the APC primaries by speaking English. Even Buhari does not command the delegate votes to make him win. Yes, he has name recognition. But his name recognition in the North is like beer. Northerners know it, but reject it!

From what I have seen so far, 2023 will be a race between Bola Tinubu and the
best Northern candidate the Peoples Democratic Party can come up with. Other than Bola Tinubu, the top three Northern PDP candidates have no match in the South. For now.

You doubt me? Okay, let me ask you this question. Who are Osinbajo’s coordinators in each of the nineteen Northern states? He either does not have such machinery in place, or where he has them, the coordinators are inconsequential people who are political lightweights that add no value to him.
Which Northern Governor is for him? With perhaps the exception of Nasir El-Rufai, the answer is zero. And if El-Rufai is for you, then you should consider that as a very big minus.

Contrast that with Tinubu. Whereas Osinbajo has no foot soldiers in the
North, Tinubu has foot soldiers in every Northern state. Every time he is moving in the North, you can see top-level Northern power brokers with him, from Ganduje, to Ribadu, to Shettima.
I will not even bother about candidates from the Southeast. If you critique them because you want them to be better, their followers (who are invariably mostly from the Southeast as well), will troop to your public profiles to insult you, as if they alone can make their chosen candidate the
President. I wish them luck in their chosen path to ‘victory’.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Bola Tinubu will win the presidential primaries of the All Progressives Congress. If his challenger in the Peoples Democratic Party comes from
any zone other than the Northwest or Northeast, then Tinubu will be the President of Nigeria in 2023.

This much is obvious to people who have political vision. I do not know how anybody will actually allow their ethnicity to blind them to the point where they can believe that any Southern candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party can win an election in 2023. That will just be like gifting the election to Tinubu.
I have the voter turnout numbers of every Local Government in Nigeria from 2019. So, I look at elections from a statistical and scientific point of view. The Southeast of Nigeria has the highest Twitter and online turnout in the nation, but the lowest voter turnout during voter registration and election.
There are those who are being moved by ethnic sentiments and their disillusionment will come very soon. I do not need to belabour the point. But I will say this: Even in the Southeast, Bola Tinubu is very strong. Look at the former Eagles that went to endorse him. Where are they from?
Let us learn from the Northwest and Northeast. This is Ramadan. How many of them have you seen travelling? Even during Sallah, they don’t travel. But let it be voter registration or election, they will travel. You travel for Christmas, but not for election, and you want to win election?
Refusing to work with political realities, and instead, promulgating political delusions and building castles in the air, will not get any region, or any part, or anyone, anywhere at any time. 2023 must be faced using cold hard facts. If Tinubu emerges in the All Progressives Congress, NOBODY among those who have declared so far in the South can defeat him for the Peoples Democratic
Party.

In Luke 14:31 Christ asked if a king with 10,000 soldiers can defeat another with 20,000.

If the All Progressives Congress gives
Bola Tinubu their ticket, the Peoples Democratic Party should be mindful of the fact that Kano alone delivered 2 million votes during the 2019 election, while the entire Southeast delivered 2.09 million. Do the maths and stop
sniffing meth!

In every election since 2003, Buhari has always had a captive audience of 12 million Northerners, plus or minus, one million. Buhari’s political foot soldiers in the core North are united behind
him. What the opposition must do is to find a way to divide them. If the Peoples Democratic Party fields a Southerner in 2023, they will unite and obey Buhari’s command to vote for Tinubu. And he will win. The only way that those foot soldiers can be divided enough not to obey Buhari’s command is if the Peoples Democratic Party fields a Northerner!

Any scenario other than the Peoples Democratic Party fielding someone from the Northwest or Northeast is an own goal. I know this will infuriate a lot of people, especially from a particular geopolitical zone, but that is what truth does. It makes you mad as hell. But it makes you heal as well.

Southerners who think Buhari is no longer popular in the North are under the mistaken belief that Northerners care about the things they care about. When terrorist kill Northerners,
Northern masses do not see it as Buhari’s fault. They see such deaths as the will of God that could not be altered.

The number one factor militating against the political progress of a certain geopolitical zone is their
inability to work with people they do not like. Tell them an inconvenient truth and to a large extent, they will gather to insult, abuse and attack you. Then after they have finished alienating everybody, they will believe that everybody hates them.

Northerners understand Southerners more than Southerners understand Northerners. Northerners like themselves more than Southerners like themselves. And more importantly, Northerners vote for region and religion. Southerners vote for region and competence.
Both politics and war are a game of life and death. Once you understand that, everyone in your bloc will be motivated to win. Northerners understand this. Southerners do not. We see politics as an idealistic endeavour. Northerners see politics as a realistic venture and act accordingly.
Individually, each state in the Northwest is politically powerful, especially the KKK axis. Kano, Katsina and Kaduna. But their individual strength is not why they influence elections. The power of the Northwest is their ability to vote as a bloc. Only the Southwest is that politically disciplined in the Nigerian Project.

In politics, it is better to use your intellect and foresight than rely on stubbornness in the face of facts. Political momentum is built in the
grassroots, not on social media, and that momentum is growing quietly in the North.

The great Chinese military strategist said, “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”
The Peoples Democratic Party should imbibe this wisdom. Look at the voting pattern from 2019 and be guided by that, not by sentiments.

No party zones from a position of weakness. You only zone from a position of strength. As an opposition
Democratic Party should be how to win. When they win, they can zone. But if they zone before they win, they will never win!

The Peoples Democratic Party must understand the military strategy that “the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” The All Progressives Congress is likely to present a very flawed but politically astute candidate in Tinubu. Thus, the PDP must respond by presenting a candidate who has numbers, not one who has sentiments.
It takes energy to bend the bow, but it takes strategy to know how and when to release the arrow. The Peoples Democratic Party has energy on its side. Now, all they need is strategy. Because, in Bola Tinubu, they are facing an opponent who relies on strategy, not sentiments.

I a kind of agree with him on this

As the party primaries draw near, it is sad to see many people still playing the same old sentimental politics which has left them perpetually on the back burner. Why do they do it? Is it that they are unteachable, or unreachable, or that they lack the ability to suppress their sentiments in favour of cold hard facts?

The people whom these lines are meant for know themselves.

They place emotions over and above every damn thing, no wisdom, no logic, no tact. Just raw emotions.

Appears their relationship with their god Reno has soured beyond redemption, perhaps. Dude's been hitting them hard over the past week. But I know, all he needs to do to whip them back in line is diss Tinubu or Osinbajo. Their emotions will lead them right back into his controlling arms.

Sad sad reality to witness.

Reno can only deceive Tinubu urchins and Yoruba people

1, Ganduje shettima and Ribadu are now the strong men in the north supporting Tinubu’s ambition and leading Tinubu in the North

2.. where are the foot soldiers in the North and where are they based ..where’s Tinubu stronghold in North.. Kano?
Then you know nothing about Kano indigenes

3
Throwing tantrums at igbos won’t make your tribe any majority .. but inconsequential.. for the Tinubu you’re sing praising was rejected and deny endorsement by your King Reno.. a
Nigerians understand that igbos punch your ego and hit it damm too bad .. but who cares ..

Even the northern incoming government will ignore you big time .. because you’re nothing with no electoral valve .. like the Yoruba fani kayode..

Reason why your relevant is tag to Gej.. the Atiku you’re screaming don’t want to work with you
Scream north 2023 till eternity Walai dem no hear your side .

We all know Osibanjo is a no no in the North .. not a big deal

But as it is right

That Tinubu must be on ballot .. so as to clear your doubts .. you don’t even understand Hausa and what they say about Tinubu and his Yoruba people

Lastly Reno .. your opinion don’t matter .. and you’re not inform at all..
keep massaging the yorub ego..

Reality after all this rant will dawn in less than 30 Days

Power to the people
North 2023

It takes energy to bend the bow, but it takes strategy to know how and when to release the arrow. The Peoples Democratic Party has energy on its side. Now, all they need is strategy. Because, in Bola Tinubu, they are facing an opponent who relies on strategy, not sentiments.

So the idiot is tired of insulting Jagaban, and now acknowledging his political astuteness.

When God wants to elevate a man, he makes even ther worst adversaries recognise and respect them.

I hope the emotional ones are reading and learning.

Reno remains a twåt nevertheless.

This is a pure hatchet job! Reno has achieved his objective- to attempt goading APC into giving Tinubu from the South their ticket, so that they can in turn goad PDP to give Atiku from the North their ticket.
He knows that the old Atiku carries a very big baggage of corruption and that the only way to make age and corruption not count in the election is by goading APC to present a more corrupt candidate. He has done his job! He has never hidden his support for Atiku.
It is most delusional of a man on exile to tell people on ground that only two southern candidates are recognized in the North.
Elections are generally dynamic, fluid safe for the fact that the majority wins in the end. In 1999, Obasanjo failed in South West. In 1999, 2003, 2007, Ojukwu failed in the SE. Against Jonathan, a common Ijaw man, Atiku failed misereably in the North East so what is this guy talking about?
Ameachi, Osibanjo, Peter Obi among others can win the 2023 elections for their parties. Nigeria know these men are more credible, more electatble than Tinubu and Atiku but Reno wants them to believe otherwise because he is an Atiku's man.

You are talking nonsense!, tell us who is bankrolling you . Put either Amaechi, Peter Obi or even pastor osibanjo there and see any northern candidate go to oblivion.

Omenka is pained that Reno is not supporting his master ..

Reno know power is returning North 2023 .. something all informed politicians are aware ..

All this his noise and rant is to get back at igbos that have dealt with him..

All the while he was attacking Buhari .. he never know say Na hatred..
Till igbos attack and damaged his psych .. same way he’s been runing others

The pain enter wella .. Reno will fight igbo presidency with blood .. igbos will forever be his fears .. he’s seeing Obi acceptance in the North
Ouk strong follwers in the North ..

Yet Na Tinubu wey Dey share rice and everyone wan chop from bullion van

Buhari don teach everyone sense ..

They north knows how to vote and we will vote .. let’s see how many votes north will be giving Tinubu and how many Yoruba people will give their Yoruba God

Reno even open mouth say Yoruba Dey give block votes

This man done the whine Yoruba people mean mean ..

You can win the Presidency without the votes of one particular region I will not name because of their ability to insult more than their ability to vote. But you can’t win without the Northwest and the Northeast.

Can someone please explain here to me,it seem my comprehension is failing me this day.i will really appreciate it if it can be translated to IGBO,Hausa,Fulfude and Yoruba

You should talk about your people first,
abi you be allien.....Bigot!.

omenkaLives:
The people whom these lines are meant for know themselves.

They place emotions over and above every damn thing, no wisdom, no logic, no tact. Just raw emotions.

Appears their relationship with their god Reno has soured beyond redemption, perhaps. Dude's been hitting them hard over the past week. But I know, all he needs to do to whip them back in line is diss Tinubu or Osinbajo. Their emotions will lead them right back into his controlling arms.

Sad sad reality to witness.

Reno Omokirikiri, e don do. They have heard you. Whether they will yield to your advice is another issue.

Smithkafors:
You should talk about your people first,
abi you be allien.....Bigot!.

Here they come. Very easy to identify, and very irritable. No tribe has been mentioned, not in the Op, not in my post, but they're the ones who would be upset by both.

Eyaaa.

You can win the Presidency without the votes of one particular region I will not name because of their ability to insult more than their ability to vote. But you can’t win without the Northwest and the Northeast.

This we have reiterated over a billion times on this forum, but they're hard of hearing and learning.

Hopefully, nature would twist realities to suit their proficiency, which is to insult.

Frigga13:
Reno can only deceive Tinubu urchins and Yoruba people

1, Ganduje shettima and Ribadu are now the strong men in the north supporting Tinubu’s ambition and leading Tinubu in the North

2.. where are the foot soldiers in the North and where are they based ..where’s Tinubu stronghold in North.. Kano?
Then you know nothing about Kano indigenes

3
Throwing tantrums at igbos won’t make your tribe any majority .. but inconsequential.. for the Tinubu you’re sing praising was rejected and deny endorsement by your King Reno.. a
Nigerians understand that igbos punch your ego and hit it damm too bad .. but who cares ..

Even the northern incoming government will ignore you big time .. because you’re nothing with no electoral valve .. like the Yoruba fani kayode..

Reason why your relevant is tag to Gej.. the Atiku you’re screaming don’t want to work with you
Scream north 2023 till eternity Walai dem no hear your side .

We all know Osibanjo is a no no in the North .. not a big deal

But as it is right

That Tinubu must be on ballot .. so as to clear your doubts .. you don’t even understand Hausa and what they say about Tinubu and his Yoruba people

Lastly Reno .. your opinion don’t matter .. and you’re not inform at all..
keep massaging the yorub ego..

Reality after all this rant will dawn in less than 30 Days

Power to the people
North 2023

Your diction is godawful.

[s]

omenkaLives:
This we have reiterated over a billion times on this forum, but they're hard of hearing and learning.

Hopefully, nature would twist realities to suit their proficiency, which is to insult.

[/s]
trash

Any sensible aspirant should cultivate the Northwest and Northeast. You can win the Presidency without the votes of one particular region I will not name because of their ability to insult more than their ability to vote. But you can’t win without the Northwest and the Northeast.

Reno's name have been removed from those who are going to heaven.. Na ISS straight..

Imagine punch lines to Develobuse

In as much as the truth was said

But

If I may Reno what is your own nowadays, you have even been the one selling BAT more than his supporters, the person you once said he is not sellable, Weldon oo

You said you won't mention names but went ahead and did mention it severally, Weldon oo kontinu

For ones you have not given PDP the name of your preferred candidate but always telling APC who to field indirectly, Weldon oo still kontinu

You want to join your brother FFK in eating Amala and Mia kuka abi, weldon ooo still kontinu

There is a saying that the mouth that speaks evil on someone innocent will surely speak good about that same person later, e don dey happen now, your mouth now na only BAT praises e get abi, e don tire you to wail abi, Weldon just kontinu

But for your information, the post of campaign DG no go reach you even spokesman campaign

omenkaLives:
Your diction is godawful.

Truth is painful
Blame it on diction

Even though he talks rubbish there is little sense in what he said If you read well, Nigeria being what it is that we are majorly foolish we don't vote a competent people we are myopic, obi no doubt is the best candidate Nigeria needs but I seriously doubt he would win, because Nigerians especially their youths like Reno are foolish people

The issue with Reno and his likes is they are not thinking of the future

Instead of preaching for all south to support a south east Candidate based on equity, justice and zoning arrangements ...

See as long as APC done present a Yoruba candidate and PDP don't give a south Easterner the ticket then APC would shock PDP in south east they think is on lock down

Truth is actually bitter but better.

mrvitalis:
The issue with Reno and his likes is they are not thinking of the future

Instead of preaching for all south to support a south east Candidate based on equity, justice and zoning arrangements ...

See as long as APC done present a Yoruba candidate and PDP don't give a south Easterner the ticket then APC would shock PDP in south east they think is on lock down

Igbos dealt with him after he’s claim on igbo history

they insults and abuse he intends to give igbos was given back to him and his tribe a billion times ..
E shock am..

He will never stop talking about it ..

Reno is the only fool outside yorubaland that have igbo hate embedded

The funny thing he thought he was whining igbos all the while .. till he became to comfortable to discuss igbo history

Dem change am for am

Please allow Reno to wail

His wailing is different from reality.. reason why he whines Yoruba people to get back at igbos

Reno is just being emotional like the Yoruba folks

No be his fault Na pAins

Any sensible aspirant should cultivate the Northwest and Northeast. You can win the Presidency without the votes of one particular region I will not name because of their ability to insult more than their ability to vote. But you can’t win without the Northwest and the Northeast.

Political common sense, but those people Reno doesn’t want to mention, do the opposite by insulting and antagonizing such strategic regions, yet expect not to become the politically worthless things they have become today, with neither prospects for the presidency or a referendum.

It is exactly why Obi Pandora’s name is worth less than a pile of camel dung in the North.

Tomorrow this one will claim to be a Southern leader and would be hailed and given many title while he presently play on the intelligent of the South and the SE in particular.

All his baseless argument cannot justify why his principal Goodluck Jonathan a minority from SS won an overwhelming election in 2011 just few days after an illustrious son of the north lost that same position.

Illiteracy is bad but half literacy mixed with sentiment is worst. Otherwise Reno will not have the effrontery to insult the intelligence of the Southern and Northern electorate who regardless of religion and ethnic voted his principal in 2011

Frigga13:


Igbos dealt with him after he’s claim on igbo history

they insults and abuse he intends to give igbos was given back to him and his tribe a billion times ..
E shock am..

He will never stop talking about it ..

Reno is the only fool outside yorubaland that have igbo hate embedded

The funny thing he thought he was whining igbos all the while .. till he became to comfortable to discuss igbo history

Dem change am for am

Please allow Reno to wail

His wailing is different from reality.. reason why he whines Yoruba people to get back at igbos

Reno is just being emotional like the Yoruba folks

No be his fault Na pAins

And he is wining more Igbo enemies for atiku he doesn't know

Reno opinion now matters to yoruba people

What a desperate situation

Since Buhari abandoned Tinubu.. Yoruba people have been laying hand on anything

If elrufia son tweets .. Yoruba will shout
Reno tweets .. Yoruba will celebrate

Inconsequential humans

But who to blame .. Yoruba need something g to hang on..

Buhari really fall their hand ..

As for Apc primaries ..

Reno said Tinubu have the ticket already.. and Yoruba people believe

In three weeks time .. hope we won’t see denial .. just like elrufia and his Chanel television speech that have kept him mute

Power to the people


Tinubu Must contest
Tinubu must win Apc primaries

Must be on ballot

Must!

North 2023

mrvitalis:

And he is wining more Igbo enemies for atiku he doesn't know

Yoruba knows Atiku is bigger than whatever blab Reno is making

Atiku have refused to work with Reno.. he has nothing to offer ..

Even his permutations are wack

How would reno stay in US AND CLAIM TINUBU IS BEING LED BY STRONG NORTHERNERS

AND HES MENTIONING

GANDUJE SHETTIMA RIBADU.. now we believe his observations is based on media and what he sees on television

Can Ganduje win election in today Kano?
What’s the value of Ribadu in the North.. he’s from Adamawa..
And shettima .. from madugiri where tinubu mortal enemy sherif hold sway and call all shots at federal level

Still wondering where Reno is getting his dog from

Better he rants this way.. e go loud

Reno keep getting petty with his igbophobia..

Even his permutations are totally wrong ..

Over here we know our candidates .. even though Buhari disappointed us..

North need to consolidate .. and will.

Northerners are not slave to yoruba people .. it remains the other way

Maybe Reno should visit North

haffaze777:
[b]

Can someone please explain here to me,it seem my comprehension is failing me this day.i will really appreciate it if it can be translated to IGBO,Hausa,Fulfude and Yoruba

Did buhari win the NW in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015?
Did buhari lose those elections?

You can win presidency without votes from the north west?

mrvitalis:

And he is wining more Igbo enemies for atiku he doesn't know

Bro forget

Soon Reno go sing another song..

Igbos must keep dealing with him .. if he gives 1.. give am 10
He must keep shouting igbos are abusive.. even fear no Dey let a.m. mention igbos again for his post

Reno Dey blogger .. wey no fit take wetin he dey give

But to shout royal family up and dan like fool.

Reno make sure you mention me.. like you did in 2015..

Old lying idiot

tit:


Did buhari win the NW in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015?
Did buhari lose those elections?

You can win presidency without votes from the north west?

Reno is empty bro..

But Yoruba need to massage their egos

Reason why Omenka is every where dancing Reno’s tune

Yoruba sef

tit:


Did buhari win the NW in 2003, 2007, 2011, and 2015?
Did buhari lose those elections?

You can win presidency without votes from the north west?

Really?