MCP has voted to hike interest rate by 150 basis points

RabbiDoracle:


Businesses depend on sugar for lots of things. If you are in the business, stock up. If you are not, "stock" up.

Ahh Oracle you know say I get average brain
After reading it three times I think I understand you Lol

CBN’s monetary policy committee raises interest rate to 13%

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria has voted unanimously to raise the benchmark interest rate to 13% after over two years of expansionary monetary policy.

This was disclosed by the Governor of the CBN, Godwin Emefiele, while reading the communique of the third monetary policy committee meeting of the year, on Tuesday 24th May 2022.

The rate which had been at 11.5% since September 2020, in a bid to spur economic growth from the recession witnessed in 2020 due to the covid-19 pandemic, has now been raised by the apex bank after inflation rate rises above 16%.


https://nairametrics.com/2022/05/24/cbns-monetary-policy-committee-raises-interest-rate-to-13/?amp=1

Olaide1295:
MCP has voted to hike interest rate by 150 basis points

Some attention to move to TB?

CBN raises MPR to 13% from 11.5%
https://nairametrics.com/2022/05/24/cbns-monetary-policy-committee-raises-interest-rate-to-13/?amp=1

Market will stabilize after the fearfuls dumping stocks exit......

Some prefer TB rates while some still prefer stocks......
Small time, dem go dey creep back into the market again....
Maybe the plan is to crash stock prices so they can come to mop cheaply, Mr. Market has the final say here...
Make Una no mind me, I no be Financial expert.

UACN
50M single Cross deal @12.90.....

Talking about the raised interest rate to 13%, don't we think there'll be less borrowing and NGX be more attractive??

If TB rate increases, can it still match the ROI on some selected stocks coupled with possible price appreciation Y-O-Y view?

Let's hope people are not interpreting the whole thing upside down..

yMcy56:
Talking about the raised interest rate to 13%, don't we think there'll be less borrowing and NGX be more attractive??

If TB rate increases, can it still match the ROI on some selected stocks coupled with possible price appreciation Y-O-Y view?

While looking at the returns, always consider the risks. A well diversified portfolio is always helpful.

Emndy:

While looking at the returns, always consider the risks. A well diversified portfolio is always helpful.

I understood the need to diversify, that's not really my point, but just curious because of the way some were dumping choice stocks, that hope it's not out of ignorance.
They may come back to buy higher later.

yMcy56:
CBN raises MPR to 13% from 11.5%
https://nairametrics.com/2022/05/24/cbns-monetary-policy-committee-raises-interest-rate-to-13/?amp=1

Market will stabilize after the fearfuls dumping stocks exit......

Some prefer TB rates while some still prefer stocks......
Small time, dem go dey creep back into the market again....
Maybe the plan is to crash stock prices so they can come to mop cheaply, Mr. Market has the final say here...
Make Una no mind me, I no be Financial expert.

Abeg what is the meaning of these MRP and its increase to those of us wey no Sabi finance

yMcy56:

I understood the need to diversify, that's not really my point, but just curious because of the way some were dumping choice stocks, that hope it's not out of ignorance.
They may come back to buy higher later.

Investment objective matters (short term/speculative? vs long term? cashflow?).

It is understandable that with the news of interest rate going up will encourage profit taking. I'd encourage that for any short term plays.
Where as "longterm/Dividendgrowth" investors will be busy piling up cash, hoping and watching patiently to mop up great businesses at bargain prices. "Patience" will be key.

Wapgod:

Abeg what is the meaning of these MRP and its increase to those of us wey no Sabi finance

It's good news for anything that has to do with fixed income instruments - mutual funds (MMF and Fixed income), Tbills even bank fixed deposits or just the usual savings account, savings bond etc.

Not very good news for equities but equities depend on other things not just news of rates so even if rates are up and fundamentals of stocks are good and getting better high rate or not equities will still do well.

Agbalowomeri:


Ahh Oracle you know say I get average brain
After reading it three times I think I understand you Lol

I don't want people to call me monkey hunter ni o.

N75'E

North 75 degrees East.

Meristem are yet to dematerialise some of my fbnh shares. What will happen to my dividends?

yMcy56:
CBN raises MPR to 13% from 11.5%
https://nairametrics.com/2022/05/24/cbns-monetary-policy-committee-raises-interest-rate-to-13/?amp=1

Market will stabilize after the fearfuls dumping stocks exit......

Some prefer TB rates while some still prefer stocks......
Small time, dem go dey creep back into the market again....
Maybe the plan is to crash stock prices so they can come to mop cheaply, Mr. Market has the final say here...
Make Una no mind me, I no be Financial expert.

I don't think there will be much negative effect on Emerging markets stocks as EMs try to combat inflation by raising rates.

All you need to watch is the global devaluation of the dollar that is about to happen/happening. This devaluation will give all EMs the needed boost.

BabsO2:
Hope the delayed FBNH results will be good like the delayed PRESCO results. Not all delayed results are bad.

Meristem are yet to dematerialise some of my fbnh shares. What will happen to my dividends

fatboyebele:


Meristem are yet to dematerialise some of my fbnh shares. What will happen to my dividends

That has nothing to do with your dividend. If you have a mandate with the registrar your dividend will be paid demat or not

emmasoft:


It's good news for anything that has to do with fixed income instruments - mutual funds (MMF and Fixed income), Tbills even bank fixed deposits or just the usual savings account, [/strong] savings bond[/strong] etc.

Not very good news for equities but equities depend on other things not just news of rates so even if rates are up and fundamentals of stocks are good and getting better high rate or not equities will still do well.

On the fixed income, MMF and specifically BONDS Sir, is it on existing bonds or yet to be offered bonds?

Likely impact of the MPC' decision on the mkt?

Well, the move should come as no surprise to many.
Other key African countries have also gone hawkish and raised rates in recent days. ...from South Africa to Kenya and Ghana.
Just few days ago, South Africa raised her interest rate by the highest margin in 6 yrs!

This was expected, in view of the currency threat to EM nation's from the increasingly hawkish stance of the ECB and the US federal reserve following the passthrough impact of covid-induced supply-chain disruptions and more recently, the strain on purchasing power from accelerating inflation risk amidst the Russian-Ukraine crises.

While I think the MPC' decision could slow down the prospect of a positive tempo, I expect fundamentally sound names to "wither any storm" and maintain their upward price trajectory in the short to mid term.

Though I agree that it whould have been better to look to layer the increase accross several meetings.
Perhaps a 50bps increase over 3 or even a 75bps over 2 meetings... or something around that figure to achieve same goal. (the last thing you wanna do now is create panic for the domestic players who for some time have broadly sustained the overall mkt tempo)
Notwithstanding, it's best to not "postpone the evil day". Everyone knows the country is not in good shape.

From a macro-economic and investment standpoint, this move was necessary to tame down on the level of disconnect between the recent market dynamic and present economic reality.

Overall though, the move should help give some respite to the widening outflow to inflow gap by increasing the plausibility of FPI/DPIs taking advantage of a collapsed Naira to position in risk-free fixed income securities... BUT MORE SO in certain select KEY equity names where REAL RETURN still dwarfs the inherent reward from playing other asset classes and continue to print positive Nos net of surrounding risk.
...the comparative analysis of foreign/domestic mkt players suggest a renewed increase (albiet sparing) in mkt appetite from the former. (ref: Feb, 2022)

This policy could help to further attract funds to EMs. (from bonds to equities)
The truth is; compared to it's African and other EM peers, the NGX is still very CHEAP! ...especially when you consider the present fundamental stance of certain select equities.

I think the mkt is currently in accumulation mood.
Any pullback in the next couple of days should only be seeing as an opportunity to strategically align with select KEY fundamentally healthy coys.

On a side note, I had the privilege of engaging in an interesting discuss with some great minds here and we all seem to agree on the part in bold.

It is well!

"One of the cardinal qualities of reaping reward from the market is in the ability to know HOW to drive THROUGH the fears of other investors and WHEN to drive AWAY from their excitement.
...it sums up what should be the psychology of a wining investor !!"
~Sinclair

machine606:

On the fixed income, MMF and specifically BONDS Sir, is it on existing bonds or yet to be offered bonds?

Usually Rates and already existing Bond relate inversely but the yet to be issued bonds will most like have higher rates
All mutual funds except equity base/balanced funds will enjoy better rates, particularly MMF since TBills rates will hitch up.

Specifically, clients with Ione now GT Fund Managers VGIF will move up to 6% from 4.5% effective July 1st except the nature of the fund is changed with the new managers

I think the rates were raised to curtail excess cash in circulation during this period of party primaries and other matters relating to the elections. I believe there will be a reversal afterwards.

RabbiDoracle:
I don't think there will be much negative effect on Emerging markets stocks as EMs try to combat inflation by raising rates.

All you need to watch is the global devaluation of the dollar that is about to happen/happening. This devaluation will give all EMs the needed boost.

Thanks sir.

I think those holding fundamental stocks should just not panic anyhow.
We've seen these things happened and at the end, we'll realize the fear being created is not worth it.
Sometimes, analysts over-analyze issues,forgetting we are in NSE/Nigeria where another rule can just come up overnight to overule the existing one....

This is NSE. We're not in NYSE. That's why sometimes I can be perceived as too optimistic. If prices goes down, it will again go up ni. Time to control emotions.

Those rushing out are doing so with the believe to re-enter cheaper, the system that may end up disappointing them. Though some are actually taking profits anyway.

I come in peace.

Wapgod:
Abeg what is the meaning of these MRP and its increase to those of us wey no Sabi finance

This explanation is more like it:

VEHIN.TOLAR:
The CBN wants to reduce the volume of cash in circulation. It is a way of mopping up excess cash in circulation in an attempt to force down prices of commodities or simply put,to reduce inflation. Inflation basically, is a situation whereby too much cash/money is chasing after few goods which pushes up the prices of these goods.
Therefore,to reverse this trend,the CBN will increase rates so as to encourage people to save their excess cash. This can be done in different numbers of ways - FG Bonds,Fixed deposit,Term deposit etc. When MPR is increased,interests payable to those bank customers who have FD,TD or those who buy FG Bonds increase as well.

Also read here:
https://dailytrust.com/explainer-what-you-need-to-know-about-cbns-interest-rate-policy-and-its-economic-effect
https://www.nairaland.com/7142704/cbn-raises-mpr-13-11.5/1

Lol. Me self was reading to understand its implications the more.
Think it should have little or no negative effect on our market in my understanding.

Those CBN guys aren't serious. What about the dollars the politicians already stacked for elections? How can that be controlled? Clueless setup.

Pls guys while buying shares in nigeria financial institution and companies which bank and companies pay the highest in dividends.
And how can I buy share from foreign companies from Nigeria and which companies pay highest from the US or Europe

yMcy56:

Thanks sir.

I think those holding fundamental stocks should just not panic anyhow.
We've seen these things happened and at the end, we'll realize the fear being created is not worth it.
I come in peace.

Dear @ mcy56 this matter is not that complex.
I think the majority of analyst are saying the same thing albiet from different perspective.

Going by your referenced quote/post, the need to soak up excess liquidity is a possible reason but it also affiliates with other rationale as previously stated.

In retrospect, if excess Naira liquidity is mopped up from the system, less funds will be available to chase the greenback ($)... which by implication, reduces the pressure on the Naira relative to the $, and aids the net flow of funds to naira denominated assets.
...this is why we talk of "some respite to the widening outflow to inflow gap"

The CBN is hoping that that reduced pressure on the Naira will help cut down on rising cost-push inflationary contributors when money flows to where it will get better incentive (higher interest rate)
This though will often come at a cost to the real sector, especially for a fragile economy like Nigeria... which is why we talk of "a disconnect btw the mkt dynamic and the real sector"... but that's a matter for another day.

In simple terms, the CBN wants you to spend less and SAVE/INVEST more!
As you spend less, it helps curtail INFLATION... and as you save/invest more, it helps give STABILITY to the local currency.

Here's the catch though...
If those redirected funds are to play by the CBN' "rule of engagement", it will most likely seek channels where it gets the best bargain.

That largely takes off from the equation the part about SAVING. We don't even earn enough talk more save in this country. Is it this my small minimum wage that I will save?

So the core of that excess liquidity will have to be INVESTED.
Naturally, a rate hike should encourage investors to align with risk-free assets like bonds ahead of volatile ones like equities... but a combination of unfavourable policies from the fiscal front has left the economic end with roof-top risk premium... implying less appealing yields in the fixed income space. (ref: double digit negative RR for some)

Hence the equity mkt, where possible inherent reward (real return in view) from certain select securities dwarfs feasible yield from other investment channels will likely continue to do well in the near term.
For a value-driven investor seeking growth through various asset class stream, there still isn't much choice out there!
Money will always chase better yield.

This is why we say that the impact from this policy on the mkt, if any, will be very minot.

As you rightly stated though; There's absolutely NO need for anyone to fret!
And as I said before; The mkt is in accumulation mood... sideways trading is expected in the days ahead... but overall positive trend remains intact!

Selah

The last time CBN was this hawkish was 2016. MPC meeting march 2016 they raised rates 100 bps from 11 to 12%. They raised them again 200bps in july 2016 from 12 to 14% which remained unchanged till 2019. Correlation is not causation, but I suggest you investigate what happened to FUGAZ from march 2016

erwinschro:
The last time CBN was this hawkish was 2016. MPC meeting march 2016 they raised rates 100 bps from 11 to 12%. They raised them again 200bps in july 2016 from 12 to 14% which remained unchanged till 2019. Correlation is not causation, but I suggest you investigate what happened to FUGAZ from march 2016

Pls kindly answer these questions;

• What was the yield on risk-free securities (fixed income mkt) then, and how does it compare to that of recent times... and the passthrough impact looking at the global financial mkt?

• To what degree does surrounding risk take away from potential growth in the real sector comparing both period. (2016 and 2022)?

• How did an investors real return from playing different asset class fair within both period?

Then come back and let's discuss more bro!

And oh! maybe the fact that a coy like UCAP and ZENITH paid about 30k and N2.02 then, when alternative investment yields were higher but paid N1.5 and N3.10 now that FI yields are much lower might help with given a clue.

The mkt will rise beyond this policy. Really nothing to fret about bro.
As I said before; any pullback in the next couple of days should only be seeing as an opportunity to strategically align with select KEY fundamentally healthy coys.

Regards

onegentleguy:
• What was the yield on risk-free securities (fixed income mkt) then, and how does it compare to that of recent times... and the passthrough impact looking at the global financial mkt?

The mkt will rise beyond this policy. Really nothing to fret about bro.
As I said before; any pullback in the next couple of days should only be seeing as an opportunity to strategically align with select KEY fundamentally healthy coys.

Thanks sir for shedding more light on this.
You've always been helpful when it comes to analyses. God bless.

The more the prices shed, the better for fundamentally sound stocks. Guess that's why some were/are pulling out to re-position much lower.
How low can these go is another question best answered by the dumpers.

Div yield for ZENITH @24 for instance currently stood @12.89%; GTCO @23 =12.77%; UBA @7.95 = 12.58%; Mansard @2.04 = 11.09%, UCAP @13.50 = 10.99%; FIDELITY next, ACCESS next; etc.

Lol. NSEMPAs don't mind me o.
I tried to break down/understand things from my primary school perspective cos those professional jargons, me no dey too understand am.
Someone already insulted me in the past, say I dey post like primary school pupil with primary school English........na the language I understand, make the person no vex.

onegentleguy:


Pls kindly answer these questions;

• What was the yield on risk-free securities (fixed income mkt) then, and how does it compare to that of recent times... and the passthrough impact looking at the global financial mkt?

• To what degree does surrounding risk take away from potential growth in the real sector comparing both period. (2016 and 2022)?

• How did an investors real return from playing different asset class fair within both period?

Then come back and let's discuss more bro!

And oh! maybe the fact that a coy like UCAP and ZENITH paid about 30k and N2.02 then, when alternative investment yields were higher but paid N1.5 and N3.10 now that FI yields are much lower might help with given a clue.

The mkt will rise beyond this policy. Really nothing to fret about bro.
As I said before; any pullback in the next couple of days should only be seeing as an opportunity to strategically align with select KEY fundamentally healthy coys.

Regards

Not fretting, I am implying that this rise in rates may be exactly the catalyst needed to move the stubborn bank stocks

How market

Princkez:
How market

sell-off cum dumping in progress on the floor