With all the political parties having submitted the names of their candidates to INEC for the presidential election, I try to peek at the future on the outcome based on the reality on ground.
Its still about 8 months to election and a lot can still change before February, however is election is held today this is my prediction. State by state.

NORTH CENTRAL.

Niger State.

Niger state has always voted anywhere Buhari favours and its currently an APC state with Sani Lolo a strong ally of BAT as governor. There is ussually a strong PDP showing here, before Buhari fever blew over the state. But BAT is not a northerner like Atiku so he wont perform like Buhari, even though he will be backed by the Ruling party and by extension Buhari. APC will retain the governorship here though.
APC: 54% , PDP: 44%, Others: 2%.

Nassarawa state.

Nassarawa state is a state with a sizeable Christian population, and votes have been equally distributed in previous elections, 2019 was the first time Buhari won Nassarawa albiet very narrowly. I think apart from the 2 major parties, LP will get a little chunk of votes that would have ordinarily gone to PDP due to igbos, Southsouthners and Christians who are enlightened. A A. Sule will easily return as the governor. He is also a very close ally and supporter of BAT alongside Almakura the immediate past governor, Abdullahi Adamu the National APC chiarman is from Keffi. APC will win Nassarawa again, but this time with a bit bigger margin than in 2019
APC 48% PDP 40%, Others: 12%.

Benue.
The relationship between APC federal government and that of the people of benue has not been a rosy one seen 2015, Despite still having big wigs like Ameh Ebute and George Akume who are long time friends of BAT in APC and also fielding Rev Fr. Alia, PDP will still win the governorship election as well as the presidential election. Although Ortom have not done well but he was able to retain the TIV loyalty for PDP.

PDP 45% APC 38% others 17%.

Kogi.
Yahaya Bello will yet again deliver kogi to APC and BAT, as simple as that. No surprises here whatsoever. One thing Bello has successfully done is to have a firm grip of APC in Kogi state which delivers victory upon victories for him.

APC : 58%, PDP 40%, Others : 2%.

Plateaue.

Nobody knows to which extent Peters Obi's influence will balkanise the votes for PDP among the enlightened christians and other southerners living in the state, and on the other hand the amount of Buhari's die hard muslim supporter will switch over to Atiku being a northerner himself and Buahri not on the ballot this time and those that will vote for kwankwasiya. I think the forces will counter balance it self and PDP will emerge victorious again as usual. APC to still retain the governorship seat again with a narrow victory.
PDP 35%, APC 30%, LP/NNPP : 34%, Others : 1%.

Kwara.

APC controlled and dominated by Muslim Yorubas. This is taken as a northern state but it is BAT's stronghold, they are the same with him, they like him,infact he will do better than Buhari here. He will win in Kwara with a landslide.

APC 67%, PDP 30%, others 3%.

FCT.

APC has also not done well in Abuja, and the last council elections showed that PDP won 3 of the Area Councils while APC won 3 albiet the less desirable councils. Abuja is also dominated by enlightened people from several regions and faiths, Abuja is cosmopolitan. Peter Obi and Kwankwaso will also feature. PDP will win here yet again.

PDP: 35% APC: 30%, LP: 20%, NNPP : 15%.

NORTHEAST

Adamawa.

Atiku will clinch his state easily, he has a PDP sitting governor who is his ally. Fintiri will most likely defeat APC female governorship aspirant to return for 2nd tenure. APC will try but will not match Atiku here, even if they pick Boss Mustapha as the running mate of BAT. Although there are strong APC chieftains in Adamawa like Babachir Lawal, Ribadu, Murtala Nyarka, Elisha Abbo etc. But It will not be enough.

PDP : 50%, APC 40%, NNPP/LP: 10.

Borno:

Borno has always been one way traffic. No matter what the circumstances is. Zulum is arguably the best governor in Nigeria now, Shettima is a die hard BAT supporter , Ali Modu sherriff is still in APC all working together. There is no contest here, even though this is Atiku's zone he will lose in Borno.

APC : 75%, PDP 20%, NNPP: 5%.

Taraba.
PDP strong hold, and APC had a sham primaries, with many disgruntled members,. Darius Ishaku despite a poor showing will deliver for his friend Atiku. Infact most APC former supporters might vote Atiku this time or even Kwankwaso.

PDP : 55%, APC 25, NNPP: 15, others 5%.

Bauchi.

This is a tricky one, with Buhari on the ballot, it would be a one way traffick, but without him, and a PDP sitting governor, it might sway other side. Kwankwaso will do well here too. Bala Mohammed will likely return as governor in a narrow victory. The Bauchi Christian Minorities are loyal to Dogara though which might be a factor. I predict an Atiku win here.

PDP 42%, APC 35% , NNPP 22%, others : 1%.

Gombe.

Dankwanbo, Former governor still has followers. And although Danjuma Goje and governor Inuwa Yahaya are not that in good terms, Goje is still in APC and is contesting for Senate. Gombe ussually vote who Buhari told them to vote and he will tell them to vote BAT., some will not listen and vote Atiku or Kwankwaso as fellow northerners. APC will clich Gombe narrowly. Inuwa Yahaya will return as governor.

APC :39%, PDP 35%, NNPp: 25. Others : 1%..

Yobe.

Mai Mala Buni is among the 14 northern governors who endorsed Tinubu, but i dont think he likes Tinubu as an individual, Yobe like Borno has always been one way traffick for APC in any circumstances. However, BAT is not Buhari. Even at that Yobe will fall to APC, PDP is dead in Yobe right from time., they will score 25% because Buhari is not in the ballot and Atiku is a northerner,.Almustapha is also from here though. Buni will return as governor.

APC : 50%, PDP 25%, NNPP: 20,. others: 5%.

NORTHWEST.

Kaduna.

Southern Kaduna hates Elrufai. Simple and short. And he didnt even do much to make them change their minds. PDP will Clear Southern Kaduna, with sprinklings of Peter Obi's LP. APC will get sizeable votes in the other zones win very narrowly. Ubah Sani will be the next governor of Kaduna State.

APC :40%, PDP: 38%, NNPP: 15%, LP: 7%.

Kano.

The Battleground. Buhari is not on the ballot so the outlook of vote now in Kano will look very very differently. PDP structure was emptied into NNPP with Kwankwaso so very pale currently in Kano. Kwankwaso+ Shekarau will clich Kano, although the governorship looks unpredictable.

NNPP: 50%, APC : 30%, PDP: 20%.

Jigawa.

Similar to Kano but not as intense, Kwankwaso is also popular here and many APC strong politicians defected to NNP. PDP is the personal property of Lamido in Jigawa but thats it. APC will win the governorship.

NNPP: 35% APC: 34%, PDP: 31%.

Kebbi.

Governor Bagudu the progressive governors forum chiarman has problems with Senate leader Abdullahi Yahaya and Former governor Adamu Aliero, leading to a lot of defections to PDP. Buhari is not on the ballot, so the outlook will change slightly. PDP will win the presidential election, but will lose the governorship to APC.

PDP: 35%, APC: 34%, NNPP: 30%, Others 1%.

Sokoto.

Aliyu Wamakko a strong ally and friend of BAT still has massive followers, Tambuwal is the governor. Buhari would have won here easily but he is not contesting this time. Just like the 2019 governorship where Tambuwal won with about 300 votes. It will be very close that way in the presidential.

PDP: 45%, APC: 44%, NNPP:10%, Others: 1%.

Zamfara.

One way trafficck. Governor Mattawale, Kabiru Marafa, Former governors Yari and Sani Yerima all in APC. Zamfara votes blindly. Buhari will tell them to vote BAT and they will listen. Landslide for APC. Governor Matawalle will return.

APC: 70%, PDP : 20%, NNPP: 10%.

Katsina.

Buhari home state will not produce a huge victory for APC like it used to be. He is no longer on the ballot and Gov. Masari didnt do well. PDP and NNPP will do well for the first time in years here. APC will retain the governorship seat.

APC: 50%, PDP: 35%, NNPP: 15%.

Your south south prediction wouldn't work lol. Who are the southerners who would vote Atiku? You claim he would win the whole of the southern states. No na! In Edo, at least 30% of his supporters are now supporting Obi. Tinubu would have 40% here (in Edo), Atiku would get 35%, Obi maybe 20% and the others 5%. I can also assure you that Tinubu would get nothing less than 30% in Delta, 35% in Rivers if Amaechi and Abe work together, 35% in Cross River, 25% in Akwa Ibom and at least 40% in Bayelsa.

You can go back to 2019 results to see the votes Buhari a Fulani man got from the south south. Tinubu would perform much better than Buhari here plus APC have candidates for National Assembly seats. In all APC should get 35% votes in the south south.

Ps Link to my prediction in 2019
https://www.nairaland.com/5039722/buhari-vs-atiku-how-each
Y'all can check it out or at least check out these pictures to see.

You really tried

I've said this many months ago, even before aspirants started making their intentions known and I'll say it again just in case you didn't see the memo....The next president of Nigeria is a muslim from the North and his name is Atiku Abubakar.

You can quote me anywhere.

Following keenly

Tinubu can NEVER win Nasarawa State with an all-Muslim ticket.
The state does not have a sizable Christian population, it is a CHRISTIAN-DOMINANT state. Christians are the clear majority in the state despite having been ruled since inception by Muslims. You'll find out in 2023.

...and a 30% vote for an all-Muslim APC ticket in Plateau and Benue States? I had to stop reading your wack analysis at that point.
Why is there no Taraba among the North East states too?



Everything you wrote here is premised on the boorish thinking that every Nigerian across ethnic and religious divides who embraced Buhari/APC's change movement in 2015 will simply queue behind them again regardless of their gross all-round failure and utter abuse of their goodwill.

That's grand delusion, Mr.

So as it stands from your analysis
Peter has less than 10% chance of wining in north without a running mate counterpart

SOUTHEAST

Anambra.

PDP will rue not convincing Peter Obi to stay in PDP. He will sweep Anambra like broom, APGA the ruling party are nkt ussually serious with presidential elections. Ordinarily this would have been an easy sweep for PDP, but with PDP it is now a sharp contrast. APC will fail woefully here.

LP: 75%, PDP: 20%, others : 5%.

Imo.

Although APC is the ruling party, yet Hope is not to keen on BAT, so would not deploy much machinary in the presidential elections even though most of his party members will be contesting for NASS positions same day. PDP will do better in imo than Anambra but will lose massive votes more than they would have gotten under normal circumstances.

LP: 55%, PDP: 35%, APC : 10%.

Enugu.

A strong PDP state and they will continue to retain the governorship seat, and many NASS and house of Assembly seats, however with Obi on the presidential ballot, he will clinch it too.

LP :50%, PDP: 45%, Others 5%.

Abia.

This state is unpredictable, many big wigs in different parties, Abaribe in APGA, Orji Uzo Kalu in ApC, Peter Obi factor in LP, then the omini present PDP. PDP will retain the governorship seat. But the presidential election votes will be balkanised. Very close to call. I see PDP clinching this one narrowly, they are still very strong in Abia.

PDP: 45%, LP: 40%, APC: 15%.

Ebonyi.

The people this state dont behave like other southeastern states. PDP is still strong in Ebonyi but the Obi tsunami will partly affect their performance. Umahi the governor is in APC and he is very influencial and is contesting for Senate. Surprisingly APC will get 25% here. The governorship is too close to call TBH.

LP: 40%, PDP: 35%, APC: 25%.

SOUTHWEST

Ondo.

Tinubu never supported Arakunrin Rotimi Akeredolu in his both 2 successfully elections, yet Aketi is supporting BAT, infact he is one of his strongest supporter surprisingly. He and the entire ondo will deliver Asiwaju in the spirit of "Emi lo kun". LP will surprisingly garner few votes from some Yoruba Christians and non-indigenes, but Truth be told, Asiwaju will sweep Ondo.

APC: 70%, PDP 20%, LP/others: 10%.

Ekiti.

PDP leader Fayose and SDP leader Segun Oni are supporting Asiwaju. Fayose doesnt like Atiku. Fayemi and the incoming governor Oyebanji will do the job for Asiwaju.

APC: 75%, PDP: 20%, Others: 5%.

Oyo.

Every politian and traditional ruler are for Asiwaju. Makinde to retain his seat. Easy for Asiwaju. Even Makinde respects Asiwaju.

APC: 70%, PDP: 25%, others: 5%.

Osun.

Another Landslide for Asiwaju this is the state where he is loved the most in Nigeria and that is his anscestral home. Even Ogbeni Aregbesola is backing him, add Baba Akande, Oyetola, Omisore, and Adeoti

APC : 75%, PDP: 20%, others: 5%.

Ogun.

The state of "Eleyi" governor Dapo Abiodun, but despite BAT's outburst the other day he will still back BAT, him and Amosun who steeped down for Asiwaju Tinubu will unite in this one to clinch the state. Non indigenes in Abeokuta, Ota and Shagamu might sway votes away a little but not too significant. Abiodun will win re-election.

APC: 60%, PDP 30%, others: 10%.

Lagos.

This is BAT'S domain, but lagos is metropolitan and non indigenes and igbos especially will pull some weight but will be subdued, this time around voters turnout will be very high in Lagos.

APC: 50%, PDP: 25%, LP :25%.

SOUTHSOUTH.

CrossRivers.

Apc controlled but PDP strong hold, APC will struggle here, but the Peter Obi tsunami will blow a little bit here. Gov Ayade will want to prove a point. But PDP will win here but not with the previous elections Margins.

PDP: 40% , LP 35%, APC: 25%.

Akwaibom.

PDP control , and APC in Akwaibom state is in dissaray with the defection of former national secretary Akpanudoedehe, and several court cases. Udom and PDP have a very good grip on the Akwaibomites. I see landslide for PDP with another peter Obi blowing again.

PDP: 65%, LP: 20, APC : 15%..

Bayelsa.

APC won the last governorship election on the ballot and lost in the court due the deputy governorship candidate name issue. David Lyon and Timi Silva are still on ground and GEJ is indifferent. PDP to win again Narrowly.

PDP: 50%, APC: 30%, LP:20%.

Rivers.

Nobody knows what is in Wike and Amaechi mind currently. They both came 2nd in their respective presidential primaries, they are both unpredictable now, it will be clear though what their positions will be in the coming months. APC has been in long term crises for long now, although Magnus Abe a strong supporter of BAT has good number of followers in the Ogoni region. A sprinkling of Peter Obi votes will come here too. PDP will win again. But what will the turnout look like? Magnus

PDP: 60%, APC: 20%, LP: 20%.

Delta.

Very strong PDP stronghold, Okowa may be on the ballot as the VP. Either way PDP will do very well in Delta. LP again will grap some votes. But Omo-agege will try to limit the damage against BAT.

PDP: 70%, LP: 20%, APC: 10%.

Edo.

This is a S/S state that is ubiquitous, with many components. Peter will pull some votes here, while Obaseki will deliver for Atiku, OSHIOMOLE who is contesting same day for senate will fight for his mentor BAT.

PDP, 40%, APC 35, LP: 25%.

PROPHETmichael:
I've said this many months ago, even before aspirants started making their intentions known and I'll say it again just in case you didn't see the memo....The next president of Nigeria is a muslim from the North and his name is Atiku Abubakar.

You can quote me anywhere.

If he didnt have alliance with peter Obi he will struggle to win

PDP is winning plateau state governorship election, if the dice are to be tossed/cast today.
APC is losing plateau state, fair and square.
Take it to the bank and keep.

This is how the North will vote

Stop deceiving yourself

AntonVince:
Tinubu can NEVER win Nasarawa State with an all-Muslim ticket.
The state does not have a sizable Christian population, it is a CHRISTIAN-DOMINANT state. Christians are the clear majority in the state despite having been ruled since inception by Muslims. You'll find out in 2023.

...and a 30% vote for an all-Muslim APC ticket in Plateau and Benue States? I had to stop reading your wack analysis at that point.
Why is there no Taraba among the North East states too?



Everything you wrote here is premised on the boorish thinking that every Nigerian across ethnic and religious divides who embraced Buhari/APC's change movement in 2015 will simply queue behind them again regardless of their gross all-round failure and utter abuse of their goodwill.

That's grand delusion, Mr.

Using foul languages on me will not change reality. Nassarawa state has a good Christian population but they are not Dominant. Muslims are slightly more in number. APC will surely win Nassarawa this time around, and they have so many big players in APC currently and all of them are working together.

Taraba is there I predicted a PDP win.

APC will score 30% comfortably in both Plateau and Benue take it to the bank.

If you Juxtapose the 2015/2019 elections with what I put up there you will see that you dont know what you are saying , by ascerting that i thought every buhari supporter will queue behind BAT. What you fail to understand is that APC is a ruling party and control so many state an have a firm grip of many states, so as long as they field a heavy weight politician, they will win or grab a good amount of votes.
You have a lot to learn in politics.

VoteObi2023:
This is how the North will vote

Stop deceiving yourself

Lol. Keep decieving yourself.

APC will win Yobe, Borno and Zamfara Landslide for a starters.

Feadalezchicken:
So as it stands from your analysis
Peter has less than 10% chance of wining in north without a running mate counterpart

No matter his running mate, except Kwankwaso is his running mate. He will not get 5% in the entire north.

Yoruba people are comedians

Since we are rating by the party of the state Governor how come you didn't give PDP 60% in Oyo state? Shebi na only Yorubas know how to vote for their son but not people from the north baa?

E go soon clear for una eyes

PaChukwudi44:


Yoruba people are comedians

Since we are rating by the party of the state Governor how come you didn't give PDP 60% in Oyo state? Shebi na only Yorubas know how to vote for their son but not people from the north baa?

E go soon clear for una eyes

It is clear and understandable.

Lp can't get more than 10% in most states in the East not to talk of Lagos.

Tinubu can't win Niger State.

MrJanuzaj:


Lol. Keep decieving yourself.

APC will win Yobe, Borno and Zamfara Landslide for a starters.

I think your analysis is very reasonable
So overall how many states does APC take and how many does PDP take

What are the chances of going into a runoff based on those calculations

From what I am seeing you have
APC 16 states, PDP 15 states, LP 4 states and NNPP 2 states

PaChukwudi44:


Yoruba people are comedians

Since we are rating by the party of the state Governor how come you didn't give PDP 60% in Oyo state? Shebi na only Yorubas know how to vote for their son but not people from the north baa?

E go soon clear for una eyes

You said same thing before APC presidential primary.

You haven't changed much since then. Hoping others hate who you hate.

Iamgrey5:
You said same thing before APC presidential primary.

You haven't changed much since then. Hoping others hate who you hate.

He is always wrong below are some of his quotes

PaChukwudi44:
I always knew the APC will not field a southerner in 2023

Wrong APC fielded a Southerner

PaChukwudi44:
The most important thing remains that the CJN will neither resign nor step aside.He would remain in power like Saraki and fight this charges

Wrong again Onnoghen resigned

PaChukwudi44:
Gbaja is likely going to lose

Wrong once again Gbaja won

PaChukwudi44:
One of the reasons the APC will lose in Kwara will be because of Tinubu's meddling.

Wrong again APC won Kwara

Just take anything chukwudi44 says and bet on the opposite. He is the reverse Midas, anything he touches turns to shit

Now that he is following Obi, expect Obi to either drop out of the contest or lose woefully

raumdeuter:

I think your analysis is very reasonable
So overall how many states does APC take and how many does PDP take

What are the chances of going into a runoff based on those calculations

From what I am seeing you have
APC 16 states, PDP 14 states, LP 5 states and NNPP 2 states

There wont be a run off. Both PDP and APC will score at least 25% in 24 states.

APC will win 16 states and win the majority votes a gap of about 2.5 milion votes, while PDP wins 14 states + FCT. NNPP 2 states and LP 4 states.
If PDP forms an alliance with Peter Obi is game over for APC.

As it stands today Subject to changes. ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU is the next president of Nigeria.

Iamgrey5:
Lp can't get more than 10% in most states in the East not to talk of Lagos.

Tinubu can't win Niger State.

Labour party will sweep Anambra I am very very sure. Win Imo, Ebonyi and Enugu, they may also win Abia but i am not sure for Abia, Abia has many things going on there.

dalongjnr:
PDP is winning plateau state governorship election, if the dice are to be tossed/cast today.
APC is losing plateau state, fair and square.
Take it to the bank and keep.

Ok PDP may win the governorship. I also predicted a PDP win during presidential election

PaChukwudi44:


Yoruba people are comedians

Since we are rating by the party of the state Governor how come you didn't give PDP 60% in Oyo state? Shebi na only Yorubas know how to vote for their son but not people from the north baa?

E go soon clear for una eyes

Since Time imo river. Your predictions and comments have been filled with Hatred, emotions, delusions, wishful thinkings and lies.

Didnt i predict. Both Kano and Jigawa for NNPP despite having APC governors? Didnt i give PDP to Kebbi, Cross Rivers, and Plateau despite having APC governors? BAT will sweep the entire yoruba land with a landslide no matter who the governor is. This is not Buhari, this is their own.

MrJanuzaj:


There wont be a run off. Both PDP and APC will score at least 25% in 24 states.

APC will win 16 states and win the majority votes a gap of about 2.5 milion votes, while PDP wins 14 states + FCT. NNPP 2 states and LP 4 states.
If PDP forms an alliance with Peter Obi is game over for APC.

As it stands today Subject to changes. ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU is the next president of Nigeria.

You are right. LP is biting a chunk of traditional PDP states, as long as LP goes into the main election with this same energy. Then APC will win
If I am BAT, I will even be using proxies to fund LP and Obi to continue the fight

The reasonable thing will be for Obi to step down and back Atiku

Let wait and see

raumdeuter:


You are right. LP is biting a chunk of traditional PDP states, as long as LP goes into the main election with this same energy. Then APC will win
If I am BAT, I will even be using proxies to fund LP and Obi to continue the fight

The reasonable thing will be for Obi to step down and back Atiku

You clearly understand politics. Even the Kwankwaso votes in the north supposed to have gone to Atiku, so it will be a wasted votes for him now. If I am Tinubu I will try and push for an alliance between Kwankwaso and Obi or make them go into the contest the way it is now. Just like you said, this can be done throough proxies.

MrJanuzaj:


You clearly understand politics. Even the Kwankwaso votes in the north supposed to have gone to Atiku, so it will be a wasted votes for him now. If I am Tinubu I will try and push for an alliance between Kwankwaso and Obi or make them go into the contest the way it is now. Just like you said, this can be done throough proxies.

Politics is not about emotions. Its about numbers and structures on ground. The fact is that all those in LP and NNPP 90% of them wont have voted for APC regardless. So its just splitting the supposed PDP bloc

For PDP to win, they need to continue working on making Obi and Kwankwanso to step down and support Atiku
For APC to win, they need to continue working on making Obi and Kwankwanso remain strong and grow even stronger

I think PDP will win more than 1 SE states. I see PDP winning 3 out of 5 SE states. And APC winning Bauchi and another Northern state
With todays energy, I am thinking
It might be closer to APC 17, PDP 17 states, LP 2 states NNPP 1 state. Margin of less than 1milion

MrJanuzaj:


Using foul languages on me will not change reality. Nassarawa state has a good Christian population but they are not Dominant. Muslims are slightly more in number. APC will surely win Nassarawa this time around, and they have so many big players in APC currently and all of them are working together.

Taraba is there I predicted a PDP win.

APC will score 30% comfortably in both Plateau and Benue take it to the bank.

If you Juxtapose the 2015/2019 elections with what I put up there you will see that you dont know what you are saying , by ascerting that i thought every buhari supporter will queue behind BAT. What you fail to understand is that APC is a ruling party and control so many state an have a firm grip of many states, so as long as they field a heavy weight politician, they will win or grab a good amount of votes.
You have a lot to learn in politics.

Stop forecasting nonsense...

Buhari is not on the ballot...We are talking about Tinubu here who is hated across the country minus the South West.

He should be building a war chest of trillion dollars to bribe his way to victory...

If Buhari decides not to deploy the machineries of state to affect the election, Tinubu will be humiliated...

maestroferddi:
Stop forecasting nonsense...

Buhari is not on the ballot...We are talking about Tinubu here who is hated across the country minus the South West.

He should be building a war chest of trillion dollars to bribe his way to victory...

If Buhari decides not to deploy the machineries of state to affect the election, Tinubu will be humiliated...

Shu t your mouth Tinubu is only hated in the Southeast. The north may not like him the way they like Buhari, but they wont have problem voting him. Even iN Atiku's Adamawa APC will give him a run for his money. The emergence of. Kwankwaso and Peter Obi is a very big problem for Atiku, they will split his votes.

MrJanuzaj:


Since Time imo river. Your predictions and comments have been filled with Hatred, emotions, delusions, wishful thinkings and lies.

Didnt i predict. Both Kano and Jigawa for NNPP despite having APC governors? Didnt i give PDP to Kebbi, Cross Rivers, and Plateau despite having APC governors? BAT will sweep the entire yoruba land with a landslide no matter who the governor is. This is not Buhari, this is their own.

The north will vote for one candidate....

You should have learned by now.

The Atiku- Tambuwal accord is a pointer to what will play out...

raumdeuter:


Politics is not about emotions. Its about numbers and structures on ground. The fact is that all those in LP and NNPP 90% of them wont have voted for APC regardless. So its just splitting the supposed PDP bloc

For PDP to win, they need to continue working on making Obi and Kwankwanso to step down and support Atiku
For APC to win, they need to continue working on making Obi and Kwankwanso remain strong and grow even stronger

I think PDP will win more than 1 SE states. I see PDP winning 3 out of 5 SE states. And APC winning Bauchi and another Northern state
With todays energy, I am thinking
It might be closer to APC 17, PDP 17 states, LP 2 states NNPP 1 state. Margin of less than 1milion

You are correct in the analysis. And for the PDP in southeast i am 100% sure that LP will win Anambra infact PDP will struggle to get 25% Anambra people vote in a special way, they will deliver Peter Obi completely.
3 states are still possible for PDP, Enugu, Abia and Imo. PDP will struggle in Ebonyi, they will split votes with LP for Umahi to swoop, Umahi is very very strong in Ebonyi forget the Social media noise, Ebonyi people behave a bit different from other southeastern states. Peter may also win Ebonyi but very Narrowly.