Olaoluwa122:
That guy is the best in sitting down somewhere and predicting something that will happen in a state he has never been to before

he said that he's not even sure, yet he went and create this thread lol.

Olaoluwa122:
Nah...in 2019 Anambra alone gave Obi almost 600k vote to Atiku...I think Obi will win southeast now...No doubt bout that...Na second position P.D.P go carry...

The Pdp votes would be shared between Atiku and Obi.

Remember Obi and Atiku was able to achieve those votes with Pdp structure

PDP should win Bauchi while LP won’t get a total of 50k votes in the region.

So NE will leave the President for VP?

helinues:


The Pdp votes would be shared between Atiku and Obi.

Remember Obi and Atiku was able to achieve those votes with Pdp structure

Kwankwanso and Atiku will share Buhari NW votes.

Obi's structure is PDP's structure in the SE

VoteObi2023:

Kwankwanso and Atiku will share Buhari NW votes.

Obi's structure is PDP's structure in the SE

That's why Obi and Atiku will share SE/SS votes as Obi don't have the LP structure in the region

casualobserver:


2019 elections Borno state:

Apc 837,000
PDP 71,000

2015 (during Boko Haram occupation)

APC 473,000
PDP 25,000

In 2019, Borno alone wiped out PDP’s gains in 3 states of Anambra, Abia and Evonyi!!!


Nairalanders should make an effort to look at the data before they talk. When they say, Google is your friend, it’s for your own good!
This is why they call Nigerian youth lazy!!!

As in eh...cc fergie001, kyase

Allen102:
Smh.

Why? My own is for tinubu to get votes

Olaoluwa122:
That guy is the best in sitting down somewhere and predicting something that will happen in a state he has never been to before

Na so I predict for 2015 and 2019

Allen102:
he said that he's not even sure, yet he went and create this thread lol.

Are you ok? Why do you pdp guys like vonitting thrash? This thread is about north east not rivers

garfield1:


As in eh...kyase

Atiku who is from the Zone has a problem, what will you now say about Obi & Kwankwaso?

seunmsg:
PDP should win Bauchi while LP won’t get a total of 50k votes in the region.

How will PDP win bauchi? Can apc win rivers

helinues:


That's why Obi and Atiku will share SE/SS votes as Obi don't have the LP structure in the region

You don't know how SE votes that's why.

We only give BLOC votes and SS votes always aligns with SE votes. If Tinubu runs with Moslem-Moslem ticket, the bloc votes to Obi will increase.

Obi will win the South.

fergie001:
Atiku who is from the Zone has a problem, what will you now say about Obi & Kwankwaso?

Those fanatic Muslims will prefer kwankwaso while a lot of Christians will prefer obi

garfield1:
Those fanatic Muslims will prefer kwankwaso while a lot of Christians will prefer obi

OK. So who now wins....

I have long told you the two who will likely sit there, that's what I think and this is my thought process.

VoteObi2023:

You don't know how SE votes that's why.

We only give BLOC votes and SS votes always aligns with SE votes. If Tinubu runs with Moslem-Moslem ticket, the bloc votes to Obi will increase.

Obi will win the South.

How do SE votes that Gov Ikpeazu will be on the senatorial ticket in 2023 and he's likely possible to win convincingly.

What would happen to the likes of Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi , Ihedioha that are still in PDP, still maintaining their support base? Are they going to collapse it for Obi, if yes When?

garfield1:


How will PDP win bauchi? Can apc win rivers

Bauchi is currently a PDP state. APC won the presidential election in Bauchi in 2019 because Buhari was on the ballot and the state was then an APC state. In 2023, Buhari won’t be on the ballot and PDP is the incumbent party at the state level. Atiku is also from the NE and he’s by far more popular than Tinubu in the state. Atiku should win Bauchi clearly while Tinubu will come second.

casualobserver:


2019 elections Borno state:

Apc 837,000
PDP 71,000

2015 (during Boko Haram occupation)

APC 473,000
PDP 25,000

In 2019, Borno alone wiped out PDP’s gains in 3 states of Anambra, Abia and Evonyi!!!


Nairalanders should make an effort to look at the data before they talk. When they say, Google is your friend, it’s for your own good!
This is why they call Nigerian youth lazy!!!

And you believe the votes from Borno and Yobe in 2019 were real?

Something that was rigged massively with incidence forms.

In 2023, no incidence form. The BVAS will be used.

Lets see how those magical figures will come from again.

By the way, there are a significant minorty of indigenous and christain peoples in Borno south. They are a fertile ground if you know what i mean

VoteObi2023:

You don't know how SE votes that's why.

We only give BLOC votes and SS votes always aligns with SE votes. If Tinubu runs with Moslem-Moslem ticket, the bloc votes to Obi will increase.

Obi will win the South.

Tinubu will win SW clearly while Obi should win SE. With governors like Wike and Ayade working for APC, SS votes will be divided between APC, PDP and LP.

Overall, Tinubu should win the south marginally with Peter Obi coming second.

Like I always say, I urge people to look at the results of the last elections and analyze the data.

The mathematics of elections:

1. Most states are won by a victory of 51-60%. In terms of numbers that usually translates to a gain of between 10k and 150k. It doesn’t matter if you get 1m votes in a state, if your opponent gets 950k in that state, all you have gained is 50k!!! A state that gives you 400k votes but only 40k votes to your opponent has done more to make you president. If Kano with 2m votes decides to share its votes 600k, 700k, 700k, then it becomes less important in determining the presidency! Anambra with less than 600K votes in the last election was more important to PDP than Plateau or Admamwa because it gave PDP almost all it's votes (535K) whereas Plateau and Adamawa shared it votes and only contributed net votes of 80k and 32K respectively.

2. Most of these results in these type of states, cancel each other out. For instance a 10k victory for APC in Osun is wiped out by a 10k victory for PDP in Benue, A 70k APC gain in Kogi is wiped out by a 70k gain for PDP is Plateau. And so on.

3. Presidential Elections are won in the states where you have a 70-90% victory especially when those states have numbers in the millions. Those are the states that give you an unassailable lead!!!! The more of them you have the quicker you start writing your victory speech!!!!

4. The SE has been a stronghold of PDP and they are in danger of losing votes and their margin in Anambra, Enugu and Ebony. These were states where they got 70% and above. Delta, cross River and Akwa Ibom are the only states where Atiku had over 70% and they could be in play for Obi( he can’t win but he will damage their lead).

5. Atiku had only 6 states with a 70+% victory compared to Buhari’s 10, and he will def lose that margin in 3 due to Obi before voting even starts. Therefore Atiku certainly cannot win the election because he has lost his stronghold of the SE. that is a major voting block is his assault on APC that has been taken from him. If Wike does a deal with APC, he might as well stay in Uk or Dubai or wherever he is. Most of his other victories will be marginal as described above. Even in his own state of Adamawa he won by only 50% and 30k votes.

6. The states that will determine the election are states where parties control more than 70% of votes especially if the votes in those states are more than 1m.

See below, in 1st picture, from Jigawa to Borno are APC states with more than 70%, 2nd picture are PDP states with more than 70%, 3rd picture are from Abia to Kwara are either marginal states that cancel each other out or the victory in those states do not make a huge difference. Abia for instance cancels out Kwara, Ekiti cancels Taraba, Bayelsa cancels Ogun, Osun cancels Benue, Kogi cancels Plateau etc etc etc!!

seunmsg:


Bauchi is currently a PDP state. APC won the presidential election in Bauchi in 2019 because Buhari was on the ballot and the state was then an APC state. In 2023, Buhari won’t be on the ballot and PDP is the incumbent party at the state level. Atiku is also from the NE and he’s by far more popular than Tinubu in the state. Atiku should win Bauchi clearly while Tinubu will come second.

In presidential elections,it has never voted pdp.buhari got more votes there in 2003 and 2011 than katsina....in 1999 anpp won the guber polls but court removed them.in 2007,anpp also won guber but yuguda later joined pdp.in 2015,it was pdp when buhari cleared the state

Bala won there because the apc chieftains ganged up against the governor.dogara uses him LGA to defeat him.they said he is from kogi.atiku can only win States where he got 40% like sokoto,Kaduna, nasarawa.

seunmsg:


Tinubu will win SW clearly while Obi should win SE. With governors like Wike and Ayade working for APC, SS votes will be divided between APC, PDP and LP.

Overall, Tinubu should win the south marginally with Peter Obi coming second.

Story, Wike is not working for Tinubu. He is more aligned to LP than APC. He will never dump PDP.

Tinubu will win SW but not massively. He has Atiku, LP and some Yoruba Christians to contend with.

Tinubu cannot win SW with more than 1 million votes. Last election, they won SW for Buhari with 260k votes.

Nobody has ever lost the SE and win the South. We have strong pull in the SS than SW and it's a FACT.

I don't sincerely see Tinubu winning the South.

Again, in the South East and South South, people don't vote because a sitting Governor told them to do so. Political endorsement doesn't work there.

Ikpeazu can't tell us in Abia to vote Atiku and we will listen to him. Ayade can't tell his people to vote Tinubu and they will listen.

nameo:


And you believe the votes from Borno and Yobe in 2019 were real?

Something that was rigged massively with incidence forms.

In 2023, no incidence form. The BVAS will be used.

Lets see how those magical figures will come from again.

By the way, there are a significant minorty of indigenous and christain peoples in Borno south. They are a fertile ground if you know what i mean

Yes,those votes were real.the voters were carried from Maiduguri to all the LGAs.it will still come

fergie001:
OK. So who now wins....

I have long told you the two who will likely sit there, that's what I think and this is my thought process.

Except the northern apc betrays him,he has to win but it will be tight

garfield1:


As in eh...cc fergie001, kyase

Only Atiku knows what he did to Borno people

Kyase:

Only Atiku knows what he did to Borno people

Is it only borno?someone can't even win any state convinvingly

garfield1:


Yes,those votes were real.the voters were carried from Maiduguri to all the LGAs.it will still come

Stop lying.

If you know what it means to transport ordinary 100,000 people a day you won't say this.

BVAS will cut down Borno votes. I have a friend in Borno, I can't get him unless he calls me.

Without steady network, the BVAS reader will not work.

Labour party cannot get up to five thousands votes in north east.

helinues:


How do SE votes that Gov Ikpeazu will be on the senatorial ticket in 2023 and he's likely possible to win convincingly.

What would happen to the likes of Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi , Ihedioha that are still in PDP, still maintaining their support base? Are they going to collapse it for Obi, if yes When?

Their supporters will vote for them for senate and vote Obi for president. They don't need to collapse anything.

Most of these people will work for Obi over Atiku. Don't deceive yourself that any SE politician will work against Obi.

juman:
Labour party cannot get up to five thousands votes in north east.

Taraba is already OBIdient

Kyase:

Only Atiku knows what he did to Borno people

He didn't do anything, what APC is to Lagos is what they (former ANPP) are to Borno and Yobe.

garfield1:


In presidential elections,it has never voted pdp.buhari got more votes there in 2003 and 2011 than katsina....in 1999 anpp won the guber polls but court removed them.in 2007,anpp also won guber but yuguda later joined pdp.in 2015,it was pdp when buhari cleared the state

Bala won there because the apc chieftains ganged up against the governor.dogara uses him LGA to defeat him.they said he is from kogi.atiku can only win States where he got 40% like sokoto,Kaduna, nasarawa.

Alright. Let’s see how it goes.

As for Nasarawa, it’s going to be difficult for Atiku to win the state. A significant number of FCT workers are residing in Karu and Keffi local governments of the state and I think Peter Obi should clear those two local governments. Overall, traditional APC voters will still vote for APC but the usual PDP voters and the new voters coming on board may shift towards LP. I don’t see Atiku winning Nasarawa because of Peter Obi.

As for Kaduna, I don’t see El-Rufai losing the state. Southern Kaduna votes are not enough to change the state’s voting pattern.