Of course igbos have taken his votes and they would pay for it later awon political miscalculators.

Penguin2:
In his last interview with Arise TV, Atiku sounded like someone who had everything figured out and hence confident of victory.

But I’ve been cracking my head to see where Atiku is really expecting his votes aside his native Northeast and some states in Northwest, where else is Atiku sure of votes.

To buttress this point, I will tell you what happened when I boarded a Uber in Lagos. It happened that the driver is from the Igbo speaking area of Delta State. We got talking and talks got to politics and he revealed that he’s card-carrying member of the PDP. But guess what, this man told me clearly that he’s support Peter Obi for the presidency.

We were still analyzing his reasons when he got a call from a certain ‘Segun’ who he addressed as “my corrupt officer”. After they exchanged banters, my Uber driver now cunningly told his caller that in the forthcoming election their support is for Tinubu since they are all Lagos boys. But surprisingly, Segun interjected and said “it’s Obi o”. In the end they concluded that for governorship, Senator, Rep, etc, they are voting PDP, but they are voting Obi for Presidency.

When he was done with the call, I now asked him which of the Southwest States Segun is from and guess what my driver told me, Segun is from Kogi State. He’s Okun. The part of Kogi that speak Yoruba. I got to find out that they both belong to PDP but they are both not voting Atiku for the presidency. I asked my driver if he relates with people at home in Delta to know their opinion too and he told me categorically that everybody in Delta is Obidient and dismissed Okowa’s influence.

I’m not telling you this for you to believe; I can only tell you the truth, but not force you to believe it.

Now the question is, how many PDP card-carrying members are like my driver and Segun? How many southerners and MiddleBelters are like them?

So far in the electioneering process, it has been become increasingly obvious that Southeast and Southsouth, a traditional PDP region, is gone with Peter Obi of Labour Party. Again, due to Christian sentiment and for want of competent candidate who would be different from the norm, most North Central states of Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa and FCT seem to be leaning towards Obi. Taraba in Northeast is also looking Obidient. Then you add Southern Kaduna, Southern Bauchi, Southern Gombe, etc. let’s not forget that Christian sentiments might also guarantee Peter Obi about 30% of Southwest votes.

Tinubu on the other hand is looking to do well in Southwest irrespective of the negative sentiments that his Muslim-Muslim ticket has generated amongst Christian voters in his native southwest region. Similarly, a state like Kwara, who are more Yoruba than northern, might also swing to Tinubu. Again being the candidate of the party in power, it is expected that president Buhari and the northern APC governors will work to deliver some votes of the core northern states for Tinubu. Again, with his running mate coming from Northeast, Tinubu is expected to take Borno and Yobe in the region.

Kwankwaso is looking strong in Kano. Some people say Jigawa but I don’t know about that and can’t say it.

Then, there is Atiku. As of today, Atiku can only boast of votes from Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and Taraba in his native Northeast. Borno and Yobe are most probably gone with Shettima of APC. Then in the northwest, with Kano gone with Kwankwaso, Atiku seems to be looking strong in other states of the Northwest of Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Jigawa, Kebbi and Zamfara. But that’s where it ends. Where else is Atiku sure of votes in Nigeria. We may concede he would garner some votes in Delta because of Okowa but I can place a bet that Atiku will not win Delta. Just like his percentage of votes in the entire southern region will be too insignificant to be significant.

Therefore, I throw this poser to Atiku supporters and those who like to claim that the upcoming election is between Atiku and Tinubu to tell me where Atiku is expecting his votes.

Penguin is a bird of reason!!!

Lalasticlala
Mynd44

In the South south, especially in Delta, Edo, Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom. ...

CSTRR:

With peter obi and tinubu running from the south?

lol
We are waiting for the Atiku southern magic.

Tinubu would even struggle to win Osun and Oyo..I know you will be surprised to hear that and Peter? Seriously, he has a lot of work to do just believe me.

Let 2023 come then we shall see.

Atikulated we stand and rise.

Liebermantic:

You're a liar..You Voted for APC and Tinubu..APC will lose in Southwest

See small yansh dey shake oo

As South East is a no go area for APC same way South West is a no go area for other tribe except APC and Tinubu

Honjoshy4u:


I am ATIKULATED Oga. The North will never abandon their son whose geo zone have not thirsted president for a Kanuri minority VP/ an old greedy man whose geo zone have done 16 years.
The NC that Buhari's maladministration have dealt with will vote against APC.... South is already campaigning against the devilish insensitive muslim-muslim ticket.

The north will never abandon their son for a Kanuri minority, right?

But you are certain that the south will abandon Peter Obi for Atiku, a northerner?

Reinaldo:
Many people in the SouthWest will vote for Atiku instead of Tinubu. Just like what happened during the Osun governorship election.

I dont think so, Yorubas and their PDP stake holders wont allow another Fulani to take over after Buhari has spent 8 years in power. If north too know what is good for them, they will not allow Atiku to take over from Buhari because the division we are seeing under Buhari would be a child play compare to what the country will turn to.

Majority will vote for Tinubu, while some will simply go for Obi.

Honjoshy4u:
Where were you when him and PDP won Tinubu's state (Osun)? In 2019, he won Sanwolu and Osinbajo ward.
Fashola loose his lg.
He got about 45% in the West.
South South is for PDP.
North central that Buhari government has destroyed and the insensitive muslim-muslim ticket will deal with Tinubu and reward PDP.

you are a dreamer! which gov in the SS do you hear mentioning AFTIEFKU? SS/SE is locked down for OBI

yemmit90:


I dont think so, Yorubas and their PDP stake holders wont allow another Fulani to take over after Buhari has spent 8 years in power. If north too know what is good for them, they will not allow Atiku to take over from Buhari because the division we are seeing under Buhari would be a child play compare to what the country will turn to.

Majority will vote for Tinubu, while some will simply go for Obi.

I don't know a single person that will vote for Tinubu.

adioolayi:


It's not a sincere analysis...He didn't put the power of incumbent factor in his calculations...

APC Governors will not be sleeping..no matter how bad...this is where APC has some sort of upper advantage, especially at the NW.

Not true at all. How about Osun? Why did that not happen? Also incumbency factor would not work this time based on the anger, frustration, insecurity, unemployment and division brought about by the same APC. Those incumbents responsible for the current situation of things will start being stoned soon - if not already.

Penguin2:


The north will never abandon their son for a Kanuri minority, right?

But you are certain that the south will abandon Peter Obi for Atiku, a northerner?

The South-South will back their son Okowa.
Shetima is from same zone with Atiku, making it laughable.
For South-East, tell me any governor, senator, house of rep or political gladiator that have openly endorsed Obi.
I love Obi and endorsed him in 2019 but he lacks the political spread to defeat the rogue party APC that I want out.

Well, ojukwu contested presidential election once, he was expecting vote from his region which is normal but the votes never came, his people abandoned, they voted against him, same may happened to obi

Dave005:


It doesn't matter what religion the state governor in SW is, I am a Christian, I voted for Adeleke in osun, and I will be voting for Tinubu. Religion doesn't affect our decisions and that's just the truth.

Taqquiya! Face your Islam and stop claiming Christian. Christianity does not support evil. "Religion doesn't affect our decisions". Your are very fake. Tell me any truly religious person who will vote a policy designed to kill his faith. Advanced hypocrite!

patpaul:

you are a dreamer! which gov in the SS do you hear mentioning AFTIEFKU? SS/SE is locked down for OBI

Okowa
Udom
Obaseki
Diri of Bayelsa
The above are in Atiku's camp

Wike will fall in after tomorrow meeting with Imoke

Atiku won Adamawa in 2019 even tho he lost his PU. But now he will surely win his state confidently especially while he got no rival from the north . Another plus for him is Fintiri performance in office in addition to the crisis rocking Apc in that state, they are still yet to settle their crisis since 2015.

So for NE Atiku will win all state except Borno and Yobe state. Oto oro koro

derecho:
Which NE abeg?
Someone that can't win Adamawa?
I would have said he is living on past glory but a critical look shows he couldn't win any election after 1999

You guys should stop hyping Atiku ...the guy is at best an ATM

Honjoshy4u:
Where were you when him and PDP won Tinubu's state (Osun)? In 2019, he won Sanwolu and Osinbajo ward.
Fashola loose his lg.
He got about 45% in the West.
South South is for PDP.
North central that Buhari government has destroyed and the insensitive muslim-muslim ticket will deal with Tinubu and reward PDP.

People voted for Obi in Lagos not Atiku. Atiku doesn't have any fan base in Lagos.

Everlastingson:




Taqquiya! Face your Islam and stop claiming Christian. Christianity does not support evil. "Religion doesn't affect our decisions". Your are very fake. Tell me any truly religious person who will vote a policy designed to kill his faith. Advanced hypocrite!

Thanks my brother... Even Donald Trump played the religious card... Ethnicity, region and religion is always a tool used in every democracy in the world.

Pdp is very strong in osun state . I remembered I predicted pdp will win osun state here on nairaland. Many pro- Apc were even boasting of ife votes ife people are pro- pdp since 1999. At last their eyes clear

The thing is Tinubu will win osun state but I don't see him getting 65-70% votes there . In addition Apc will lose all elections to hold in osun come 2023.... Omo osun niwa

Salewa97:


Adeleke won Osun state.

Forget say they vote PDP because they like Adeleke, in the presidential election, Jagaban will win Osun with clear majority.

Atiku the shoemaker is just deceiving himself.

Adexxi:
Atiku won Adamawa in 2019 even tho he lost his PU. But now he will surely win his state confidently especially while he got no rival from the north . Another plus for him is Fintiri performance in office in addition to the crisis rocking Apc in that state, they are still yet to settle their crisis since 2015.

So for NE Atiku will win all state except Borno and Yobe state. Oto oro koro

Atiku will lose Christian votes in Adamawa and taraba.tinubu might win bauchi and gombe.

Abujason:


Not true at all. How about Osun? Why did that not happen? Also incumbency factor would not work this time based on the anger, frustration, insecurity, unemployment and division brought about by the same APC. Those incumbents responsible for the current situation of things will start being stoned soon - if not already.

You have a point...bad Governance will do APC lot of harm...

Had it been PDP is entering this election with a united force, it would have been a straight win for ATiKU.

Sincerely, this election will be tight on all indices and thanks to PDP's divided houses.

I still feel the indices favours APC more.

Don't forget that this APC had to unite forces to defeat a very strong United PDP...that PDP they defeated have splitted futher into three powerful forces..

This is still giving APC a slight chance.

Kwankwaso can only win kano any maybe Jigawa....hope u sabi why I included Jigawa.

uthlaw:
Atiku cannot win North west,even kwankwaso will have more votes than Atiku...

His family members offcourse

Salewa97:


Adeleke won Osun state.

Forget say they vote PDP because they like Adeleke, in the presidential election, Jagaban will win Osun with clear majority.

Atiku the shoemaker is just deceiving himself.

clear majority in this osun where I dey? Forget brah... Tinubu may win osun but not with clear majority. You thought Oyetola loss the election because of bad governance? No, his election loss was due to the bad governance at the federal level. Like I said earlier, he may win, but certainly not with clear majority.

Honjoshy4u:


The parameters are not the same and not still in support of Tinubu because the 6 governors in SW are all christians. How will they canvass for a muslim-muslim ticket?? Even Osinbajo will never openly support the ticket.
Are you telling me Adeleke and PDP will vote APC lol ..... The election in Osun is a resounding NO to muslim-muslim devilish ticket having a Kanuri minority Boko Haram sympathiser as running mate.
APC will never get up to 15% total votes in SS due to muslim-muslim ticket and the fact that their son (christian) is aiming for VP. During campaign, they will remind Tinubu how he used propaganda to kick out their son Jonathan.

The biggest mistake Tinubu and APC made is to project a muslim-muslim ticket in 2022

Study Yorubas very well, south west is for Tinubu

Adeleke and his deputy are christians yet Muslims dominate Osun. Yorubas are not sentimental unlike other regions.

jogsman01:
clear majority in this osun where I dey? Forget brah... Tinubu may win osun but not with clear majority. You thought Oyetola loss the election because of bad governance? No, his election loss was due to the bad governance at the federal level. Like I said earlier, he may win, but certainly not with clear majority.

Pls Tinubu will win with clear majority in Osun

TylerDurden:
Middle belt and Niger Delta

Osuland is for Peter obi

SW is for Tinubu

Atiku wins this election hands down.

which south west

Explain to me how Atiku will lose christians votes in Adamawa and how it will be a big plus for Tinubu . The thing is the choice of Shetima is not really a bomb. He is just a kanuri man and they only dominate Borno and part of Yobe state.

Tinubu can never win Bauchi .... Ko owó e wa ko wa bet . Tinubu feel win Gombe actually but I don't see it coming especially during this time of NE agenda

garfield1:


Atiku will lose Christian votes in Adamawa and taraba.tinubu might win bauchi and gombe.

Echoban:


Wen u see those stupid noise makers u should recognize ND know how to avoid their building in air kind of banter politics.


I'm A Christian and voting BAT. People voted adeleke not because they hated BAT, they just want adeleke in .

More or have of Osun are Muslims yet they voted christian Christian

Yorubas are unlike other regions that are sentimental. Tinubu will win in Osun

Many of us have always voted pdp in osun state . Especially we ife people we are always pro- pdp . And the party, pdp is what helped Adeleke in ife/ijesa land and not Adeleke himself . Oto oro niyen ooo

Khaysee:
South west dont vote party but individual unlike other regions
Adeleke won not Pdp

They can vote as they wish they don't do vote of one direction in west but one person will lead

We are waiting until then

TylerDurden:
Middle belt and Niger Delta

Osuland is for Peter obi

SW is for Tinubu

Atiku wins this election hands down.

with only two region northeast and northwest?