ThrownBack:


The North should also learn good governance from Peter obi insha Allah

We didn't hear of his good governance record up till he declared to run.

So please save us the BS.

NuclearWinter:
NE

Other than Bornu where Shettima will have to win to prove his worth, the entire region is going to Atiku.

Bornu will see APC win with a slight majority of at least 60%.

The rest of the region will vote Atiku.

Obi gets zilch here

After shettima has turned his machines against PDP in the North East, they will cancel themselves out here for LP to have a decent harvest from the youths of rhe NE.

NuclearWinter:


We didn't hear of his good governance record up till he declared to run.

So please save us the BS.

He does his things in silence, now his results are speaking for him on the national level.

NW
This is now the region with the most anti APC mood.

A region which fervently supported and voted for Buhari and stood by him expecting him to "change" has come to be the region that has swung like a pendulum to the opposite direction.

Insecurity, economic hardship has seen this region come to detest the APC with a passion.

The region has vowed to vote out the APC.

The APC will however do their usual rigging in Kaduna and disenfranchisement of the Christian southern parts for sake that their campaign DG is El Rufai but it will be in vain.

APC will successfully rig Kaduna .

States like Kano, Katsina, Kebbi Zamfara , Sokoto and Niger reeling under APC sponsored terrorism will vote massively for the PDP.

Obi gets zilch.

They are not going to waste their vote on one charlatan that knows only how to do mouth salad.

ThrownBack:


After shettima has turned his machines against PDP in the North East, they will cancel themselves out here for LP to have a decent harvest from the youths of rhe NE.

Stop deluding yourself .

So in conclusion , this is my predicted outcome for the 2023 elections.

SW - APC win

SS - PDP win

SE - LP win

MB - PDP win

NE - PDP win

NW- PDP win

Overall results:

PDP win with 4 out of 6 regions

APC second place (no consolation prizes tho)

LP: a distant third place .

NuclearWinter:
Already we are noticing how the SW and SE have reduced the presidential contest to their usual regional pissing contest and will be voting purely on ethnic sentiments.

For those who think the SS is for their Agbado master or their Pinocchio IPOB replacement candidate , lest I remind you that the SS has been the only region that has been consistently voting the PDP since 1999 without ethnic sentiments.

It is for this reason that Atiku went for a SS running mate and jettisoned the disastrous liability SE option of 2019 which got the usual voter apathy they are known for.

But we are now seeing how the SE has rallied round the same running mate to Atiku in 2019. All this because , Obi, whom the SE showed lacklustre enthusiasm for in 2019 is now running as a substantive presidential candidate.

So we are seeing an ethnic dimension in the frenzied support of Obi supporters who are 99.9999% Igbo and the SW is responding to this by voting the Yoruba candidacy of Bola Tinubu.

At the end, the SW and SE will vote on ethnic grounds while Atiku will sweep the votes in the north, middle bent and SS just as Shagari did in 1979.

You idiots can keep dragging each other and reduce the elections to your usual dik measuring contest.

The 1979 result below should guide you on how Atiku will win the elections

even Delta state self won't vote for Atiku,you're here giving him the whole south south.

From 1999 till date PDP has never won Yobe state in NE

NuclearWinter:
NE

Other than Bornu where Shettima will have to win to prove his worth, the entire region is going to Atiku.

Bornu will see APC win with a slight majority of at least 60%.

The rest of the region will vote Atiku.

Obi gets zilch here

To explain further to the DisObidient mob how the SS has never factored ethnicity in voting but has put party considerations above everything else , here is a glance of their voting history:

1999
SS votes overwhelmingly for a Yoruba man, Olusegun Obasanjo under the PDP structure .

2003
SS votes same Obasanjo

2007
SS votes Yaradua, a Fulani of the PDP

2011
SS votes GEJ an Ijaw under the PDP

2015
SS votes GEJ again

2019
SS votes Atiku , a Fulani under the PDP banner.

The SS has historically hedged her bets on a national candidate who will advance their cause.

They jettisoned Awolowo and Azikiwe in 1979 whom they saw as ethnic champions in preference to a Shagari who they saw clearly before hand would win the elections with their support.

So don't expect anything to change because of an IPOB backed candidate or a Tinubu who brought in the disaster known as Buhari and who went overboard in attacking their son when he was president.

The SS will be voting to payback Tinubu for his role in removing GEJ and also voting to remind the Igbo of their place when it comes to the SS.

Boyewu:
From 1999 till date PDP has never won Yobe state in NE

You are right.

I forgot about that state.

The Boko plagued Yobe is a hotbed of radical islamists.

They voted against the Christian Obasanjo and voted Buhari whom they saw as a more pious Muslim than Yaradua .
And repeated same in 2015 and 2019.

So it maybe down to purely religious considerations for those ones.

That means Atiku may stand a better chance that Tinubu - a Yoruba Muslim

Let's wait and see.

Masturbator2020:
even Delta state self won't vote for Atiku,you're here giving him the whole south south.

And they will vote for who ?

Tinubu?

Obi?

For your mind

NuclearWinter:


And they will vote for who ?

Tinubu?

Obi?

For your mind

Obi. Not because he is a saint but because we have seen the best of APC and PDP. We want to try a new party. And if the new part fail again, we will try another one.. Just speak to people in the stress of Delta and Edo,they will tell you they are obedient.

Masturbator2020:

Obi. Not because he is a saint but because we have seen the best of APC and PDP. We want to try a new party. And if the new part fail again, we will try another one.. Just speak to people in the stress of Delta and Edo,they will tell you they are obedient.

The trial and error of 2015 never give you sense you want us to vote your Obi on test mode?

E no go work.

We do not have the luxury of another experiment .

Masturbator2020:
even Delta state self won't vote for Atiku,you're here giving him the whole south south.

Allow the guy to enjoy his delusional state

NuclearWinter:


The trial and error of 2015 never give you sense you want us to vote your Obi on test mode?

E no go work.

We do not have the luxury of another experiment .

The error of 2015 was as a result of PDP faction joining a new APC to wrest power, then they enthroned a well known, proven failure.

Obi is on another level altogether, a master class success tutor who have mentored a lot of individuals and businesses to success over the years.

Obi will set Nigeria free from failure.

NuclearWinter:
Already we are noticing how the SW and SE have reduced the presidential contest to their usual regional pissing contest and will be voting purely on ethnic sentiments.

For those who think the SS is for their Agbado master or their Pinocchio IPOB replacement candidate , lest I remind you that the SS has been the only region that has been consistently voting the PDP since 1999 without ethnic sentiments.

It is for this reason that Atiku went for a SS running mate and jettisoned the disastrous liability SE option of 2019 which got the usual voter apathy they are known for.

But we are now seeing how the SE has rallied round the same running mate to Atiku in 2019. All this because , Obi, whom the SE showed lacklustre enthusiasm for in 2019 is now running as a substantive presidential candidate.

So we are seeing an ethnic dimension in the frenzied support of Obi supporters who are 99.9999% Igbo and the SW is responding to this by voting the Yoruba candidacy of Bola Tinubu.

At the end, the SW and SE will vote on ethnic grounds while Atiku will sweep the votes in the north, middle bent and SS just as Shagari did in 1979.

You idiots can keep dragging each other and reduce the elections to your usual dik measuring contest.

The 1979 result below should guide you on how Atiku will win the elections

In 1979 there were 3 states in SS Bendel , Rivers and Cross River . Shagari did not win Bendel .Awolowo did
Shagari did not win Kano ............Aminu Kano did. He got less than 20% of Kano. Kano has always been different
There is no basis for predicting 1979 will be like 2023. No basis whatsoever. In 1999 It was a very different dynamic. We had nod just gone through 8 years of an elected Fulani

aribisala0:
In 1979 there were 3 states in SS Bendel , Rivers and Cross River . Shagari did not win Bendel .Awolowo did
Shagari did not win Kano ............Aminu Kano did
There is no basis for predicting 1979 will be like 2023. No basis whatsoever. In 1999 It was a very different dynamic. We had nod just gone through 8 years of an elected Fulani

The more things change the more they stay the same.

Nothing has changed as far as 1979 and 2023 is concerned because we have three major contenders from the SW, SE and North just as in 1979.

NuclearWinter:
Edo

Oshiomole's Akoko-Edo Yoruba region will vote massively for APC.
This APC will get votes in other parts of the state but this won't be enough to win the state.

Atiku will carry the state with a slight margin of 55-60% against APC which will poll at least 45%.

Obi is going nowhere and will be lucky if he gets votes in the hundreds.

Obi is Atiku's Girlfriend.

He will definitely fold for Atiku in January.

ThrownBack:


Using hate to do analysis will always make you sound myopic

Let's see your own love filled analysis

NuclearWinter:


The trial and error of 2015 never give you sense you want us to vote your Obi on test mode?

E no go work.

We do not have the luxury of another experiment .

Trying another one and sticking to the one that have failed which is better?

Masturbator2020:

Trying another one and sticking to the one that have failed which is better?

Not voting your yamri candidate

Atiku what?If atiku win one state in d ss make ona flog me 124 .d best he can get from d middle belt is one stateAtiku what?If atiku win one state in d ss make ona flog me 124 .d best he can get from d middle belt is one state...

NuclearWinter:
SW

Ekiti APC majority of at least 90%. Atiku gets the remaining. Obi will not get zilch

Ondo
This state has always gone against mainstream Yoruba politics in preference to national appeal. The PDP structure on ground is very strong but we can consider Ondo as one of the major swing states in Nigeria.

The Fulani menace has however reared anti northern sentiments and the state is at the centre of Yoruba seccesionist movement.

It will be extremely difficult to say how Ondo results will swing but I will give it to Tinubu who will win with a comfortable margin. Atiku and the PDP may poll up to 20% . Obi gets zilch.

Osun
With an incoming PDP governor, this state will be a battle ground with the elections being a replay of the gubernatorial elections which the APC will be baying for blood.

Tinubu will win the state with a considerable margin but Atiku may pull a surprise of at least 25% of the votes.

Oyo

With a PDP governor in place , the PDP will do well but lose owing to tribal sentiments being fueled by both the Tinubu and Obi camp.

I see the result pattern similar to Osun.

Ogun
This is one of the states Tinubu is sure to clinch with a resounding victory like in Ekiti.

APC will get at least 90% of the votes here.

Obi gets zilch.

Lagos
Being Tinubu's stronghold, I see him winning it hands down but not without his usual deployment of thugs, ballot snatching and voter disenfranchisement in areas where there are high Igbo concentrations.

One can even say that igbos will be intimidated before the elections proper not to come out and vote.

I am giving Lagos to Tinubu with at least 85% win. Obi may get at least 5% here .

If Tinubu is not careful he will loose Lagos to Obi. Take this to the bank. Alaba, Ladipo, Trade Fair, Computer Village, Bariga, Oworonshoki, Festac and its environs are locked down for Obi.
Ikoyi excluding bourdillon, Victoria Island and Eti Osa are also locked down for Obi. Tinubu has strength in Alimosho Local Govt, thats where he has always used rigging to inflate number. I was surprised what I saw in VGC Estate during the PVC registration. They made a bold banner writting PVC in VGC, you needed to see the outcome. Meanwhile this is a unit Osibanjo lost last election, they simply ugraded their numerical strength.
E Go shock una.

I concur. Let them continue dragging

clarocuzioo:


If Tinubu is not careful he will loose Lagos to Obi. Take this to the bank. Alaba, Ladipo, Trade Fair, Computer Village, Bariga, Oworonshoki, Festac and its environs are locked down for Obi.
Ikoyi excluding bourdillon, Victoria Island and Eti Osa are also locked down for Obi. Tinubu has strength in Alimosho Local Govt, thats where he has always used rigging to inflate number. I was surprised what I saw in VGC Estate during the PVC registration. They made a bold banner writting PVC in VGC, you needed to see the outcome. Meanwhile this is a unit Osibanjo lost last election, they simply ugraded their numerical strength.
E Go shock una.

If Igbos are not careful , there will be a repeat of the great Igbo exodus out of the SW like that following the annulment of June 12.

No way Igbo will be allowed to vote in Lagos freely.

Expect to see a lot of Igbo markets and business's suddenly becoming combustible over night .

NuclearWinter:


If Igbos are not careful , there will be a repeat of the great Igbo exodus out of the SW like that following the annulment of June 12.

No way Igbo will be allowed to vote in Lagos freely.

Expect to see a lot of Igbo markets and business's suddenly becoming combustible over night .

In 1978,awolowo party upn was weak in the north except in gongola.awolowo running mate was Igbo and he ignored the core north yet he lost narrowly.shagari didnt sweep the north.he narrowly won the north.waziri Ibrahim and aminu kano divided his votes.
Therefore,kwankwaso will divide northern votes.again,apc is very strong in the north stronger than pdp therefore unlike awolowo,tinubu will get votes in the north.atiku might lose the ss

NuclearWinter:


If Igbos are not careful , there will be a repeat of the great Igbo exodus out of the SW like that following the annulment of June 12.

No way Igbo will be allowed to vote in Lagos freely.

Expect to see a lot of Igbo markets and business's suddenly becoming combustible over night .

So Igbos will not be allowed to vote freely in Lagos? very interesting.

If they born any bastard well, let them try any nonsense where Igbos are in this election. Go and check why Igbos are no longer massacred in the North like before, because obviously the hunter became the hunted. Nobody has a monopoly of violence and foolishness.

If them born una papa well, make una do any how and you will collected wotowoto in your home.
This time around we are ready for any foolishness from any idiot.

garfield1:


In 1978,awolowo party upn was weak in the north except in gongola.awolowo running mate was Igbo and he ignored the core north yet he lost narrowly.shagari didnt sweep the north.he narrowly won the north.waziri Ibrahim and aminu kano divided his votes.
Therefore,kwankwaso will divide northern votes.again,apc is very strong in the north stronger than pdp therefore unlike awolowo,tinubu will get votes in the north.atiku might lose the ss

At the end , Shagari sha still win abi?

NuclearWinter:


If Igbos are not careful , there will be a repeat of the great Igbo exodus out of the SW like that following the annulment of June 12.

No way Igbo will be allowed to vote in Lagos freely.

Expect to see a lot of Igbo markets and business's suddenly becoming combustible over night .

Seun, Mynd44, Justwise, Rule 2 and 8

clarocuzioo:


So Igbos will not be allowed to vote freely in Lagos? very interesting.

If they born any bastard well, let them try any nonsense where Igbos are in this election. Go and check why Igbos are no longer massacred in the North like before, because obviously the hunter became the hunted. Nobody has a monopoly of violence and foolishness.

If them born una papa well, make una do any how and you will collected wotowoto in your home.
This time around we are ready for any foolishness from any idiot.

See this one.

They didn't tell igbos to leave the SW in 1994 after Nzeribe got a judgement to annul the elections


There are creative ways Tinubu thugs can pass their message to you Igbos

When your shops and markets begin to catch fire dem no go tell una to run go back una village