Russian S-400 Long-range Air Defense System

I’ve become increasingly intrigued by the fact that western military analysts – even among those not burdened with the epidemic strain of virulent antipathy towards Russia – have not spoken much (if at all) about what I consider to be quite arguably the most impressive revelation of the war in Ukraine.

In addition to imposing a virtual “you fly, you die” rule against the Ukrainian Air Force and the various drones they employ, the Russians are, with a formidable array of air defense systems of varying capacities, routinely shooting down: ballistic missiles, MLRS rockets, HARMS anti-radiation missiles, and even artillery shells.


Russian Pantsir Short-range Air Defense System

hey are also effectively employing a variety of electronic counter measures to: block signals to GPS-equipped ordnance; spoof the targeting radars of both satellites and radar-equipped missiles, and otherwise confuse the variety of targeting technologies employed in both older Soviet and American weapons being fielded by Ukrainian forces.

This is an absolutely unprecedented achievement on the battlefield.

Neither Israeli nor American systems have ever demonstrated the capability to routinely shoot down advanced missiles or rockets of any type.

Iraqi Scud missiles defeated the American Patriot missile defense system, as have much cruder missiles fielded by the Houthis in Yemen against Saudi targets ostensibly protected by American-provided US air defense systems.

More relevantly, Iranian missiles have proven to be much more formidable than was previously believed. And although it remains uncertain (or purposely unacknowledged) that US air defense systems were in the vicinity at the time, Iran dropped a couple dozen of their home-made ballistic missiles with 1000 lb. warheads within 5-meter circles at the US air base at Ayn al-Asad in Iraq during their “Vengeance for Soleimani” strike in January 2020. (Impressive drone video of the strike at that link.)

This is particularly embarrassing for the US, because they had prior warning, hours in advance, that a missile strike would be launched against Ayn al-Asad.

Even in strictly controlled tests against advanced ballistic missiles, the successful interception rate for US Patriot and THAAD (TerminalHigh Altitude Air Defense) systems falls far short of impressive.

And yet, after a handful of successful early strikes by Ukrainian forces, the Russians have now shot down the overwhelming majority of the Soviet-era Tochka-U ground-to-ground missiles Ukraine has fired over the course of the past six months.

The Tochka-U is a reasonably formidable weapon. Mach 5.3; 150 meter accuracy; variable warhead.

But other than a single ammo dump strike, there have been no successful Tochka-U hits on Russian targets since the third week of March 2022.

Dozens have been shot down.

By comparison, the US ATACMS missile is almost twice as large as the Tochka-U, with a longer range, but considerably slower speed (Mach 3+).

There is little reason to suppose the ATACMS can succeed where the Tochka-U has failed – at least if it is used against targets covered by Russian air defenses.

But, of course, it’s not just the ballistic missiles Russia is shooting down. They have been shooting down Ukrainian artillery rockets from the beginning of the war. And most recently, they are shooting down an impressive percentage of the HIMARS GPS-guided GMLRS rockets when they challenge air defense coverage areas.

And just in the past week, as yet unconfirmed evidence has emerged of a US HARMS (high-velocity anti-radar missile system) missile shot down by Russian air defenses. I suspect we’ll see additional evidences of that capability in weeks to come.

But what must be understood is that no military on the planet had, previous to the war in Ukraine, consistently demonstrated the capability to do what Russia has been doing routinely for the past six months: imposing from the ground what amounts to a reasonable facsimile of a no-fly zone over those areas of the battlefield where it has chosen to mass its air defenses.

To be sure, there have been missile and rocket strikes that have hit their marks elsewhere. And there have even been missiles/rockets that, when fired in large salvos, have, to varying degrees, successfully penetrated concentrated Russian air defenses, such as the batteries attempting to provide protection for the Antonovsky Bridge near Kherson. But even in these salvo attacks, the Russian Ministry of Defense consistently claims an interception rate of 50% or more.

The undeniable fact is that Russia is doing something that has never previously been done with any degree of regularity: shooting down incoming missiles and high velocity rockets.

I don’t understand why a bigger deal is not being made about this.

I am confident that Pentagon war planners are shaken to the casters on their fat leather chairs when they contemplate the significance of what they are seeing play out in Ukraine on an almost daily basis.

It is, in my estimation, a revolutionary development on the battlefield.

And it is a capability that no other nation has yet demonstrated.

Yes, yes, I know … there are some who will start shouting Iron Dome from the back of the room. But seriously … if anyone believes Israel’s Iron Dome is a proven system against advanced missiles or rockets, I'm sorry, but I've seen no evidence to support such faith. They have been used primarily to intercept the rather crude “bottle rockets on steroids” launched from the hapless Palestinians in Gaza – not hardly a glowing resumé.

It remains to be seen if Iron Dome can even stop the now-formidable arsenal possessed by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

As for Iranian missiles? I do not believe Iron Dome could intercept more than a minute fraction of them should a massed strike ever take place.

The bottom line is that Russia has now incontrovertibly demonstrated a reliable capability to intercept a large percentage of advanced missiles and rockets.

There is also very good reason to suppose they have not revealed their full capabilities in Ukraine, for fear of tipping off the US/NATO in advance of a potential confrontation against them.

In any case, the capabilities already manifest at this juncture appear to me to represent a likely war-winning advantage accruing to Russia in the event of a future conflict against the United States.

By William Schryver at 6:27 PM
https://www.imetatronink.com/2022/08/no-fly-zone.html?m=1

Al Asad Missile Attack Nearly Killed 150 US Troops, Destroyed 30 Aircraft: Report


Screenshot of unclassified footage of tactical ballistic missile strikes on Al Asad airbase Jan. 8, 2020. (Courtesy video)

Maj. Alan Johnson recorded a video message to his son hours before Iran began attacking Al Asad Airbase in Iraq.

"Hey buddy," Johnson said in the emotional video he recorded for his son on Jan. 8, 2020, which 60 Minutes aired Sunday night. "If you're seeing this video, some bad things happened to dad last night, so I need you to be strong, OK? For mom. And just always know in your heart that I love you."

The Defense Department on Monday released newly declassified footage of the ballistic missile strikes on Al Asad last year. The Jan. 8 2020 attack was retaliation for a U.S. drone strike five days earlier that had killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds force.

More than a year later, though, tensions remain high between the U.S. and Iran. Last week, President Joe Biden ordered airstrikes in Syria targeting facilities belonging to Iranian-backed militants. The strikes were in response to a February rocket attack in Iraq that killed a civilian contractor and hurt a U.S. service member.

The video the Pentagon released this week shows drone footage of the 2020 attack, which brought the U.S. and Iran danger close to war. The footage shows explosion after explosion erupting at the base.

No American troops died in the attack, but Marine Gen. Kenneth "Frank" McKenzie told 60 Minutes the U.S. had a plan to retaliate if they had been. He estimates the U.S. was close to losing between 100 and 150 personnel and up to 30 aircraft.

Officials at first said no one was injured at Al Asad, but more than 100 troops were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries and Purple Hearts were approved for more than two dozen. About 2,000 troops there scrambled into bunkers to take cover after receiving warning that an attack was coming.

The bunkers in which Johnson and others were taking shelter were designed to protect troops against warheads weighing about 60 pounds. Each missile launched by Iran carried a warhead weighing more than 1,000 pounds, according to 60 Minutes.

"The fire was just rolling over the bunkers, you know, like 70 feet in the air," Johnson told CBS, adding he recalled thinking, "'We're going to burn to death.'"

Lt. Col. Staci Coleman, 443rd Air Expeditionary Squadron's commander, described feeling waves from the blast throughout her entire body. She also thought of her family after receiving warning of the attack, Military.com previously reported, texting them "I love you."

Leaders with U.S. Space Command told Military.com last summer that American lives were saved by space operators, who were able to spot the incoming threat and alert those in its path.

"My greatest fears were not realized that day because we did respond very quickly ... in terms of warning to troops that were threatened on the ground," said Air Force Maj. Gen. John Shaw, commander of the Combined Force Space Component. "And I believed [that] saved many lives."

-- Gina Harkins can be reached at gina.harkins@military.com. Follow her on Twitter @ginaaharkins.

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Reason for the poor performance of the air defense in Kharkov.
The fact is that 43 seconds pass from the moment of launch to the moment of arrival and not a single air defense system in the world can cope with such a goal UA brig Gen Serhiy M said.
When Russia said they don’t want nato on their border especially too close to Moscow, this is what Russia mean.
Russia missiles launched to Ukraine get into Ukraine targets under 1 mins, meaning Ukraine def have just under 1 mins to counter those missiles.

seunny4lif:
Reason for the poor performance of the air defense in Kharkov.
The fact is that 43 seconds pass from the moment of launch to the moment of arrival and not a single air defense system in the world can cope with such a goal UA brig Gen Serhiy M said.
When Russia said they don’t want nato on their border especially too close to Moscow, this is what Russia mean.
Russia missiles launched to Ukraine get into Ukraine targets under 1 mins, meaning Ukraine def have just under 1 mins to counter those missiles.

Absolutely. You get it. With NATO too close to Russian border, the possibility of nuclear annihilation is high. They will not have time to determine the type of missile lunch toward Russia and they will have to respond immediately with their dead man switch. Besides, I believe if the US had their way, they would have nuked Russia long ago.

rottennaija:


Absolutely. You get it. With NATO too close to Russian border, the possibility of nuclear annihilation is high. They will not have time to determine the type of missile lunch toward Russia and they will have to respond immediately with their dead man switch. Besides, I believe if the US had their way, they would have nuked Russia long ago.

Churchhill told USA to attack USSR immediately after WW2 because he knew the USSR were to weak to fight another war immediately.

USA would have but they don’t want to risk the outcome of the war.

seunny4lif:

Churchhill told USA to attack USSR immediately after WW2 because he knew the USSR were to weak to fight another war immediately.

USA would have but they don’t want to risk the outcome of the war.

Russia nuclear weapon protected them. That's why US is so desperate to not allow Iran have nuclear weapons. Now that NK has, they can't do much.

rottennaija:


Russia nuclear weapon protected them. That's why US is so desperate to not allow Iran have nuclear weapons. Now that NK has, they can't do much.

That’s was before the USSR developed nukes
In 1946, Churchhill want USA and UK invasion of USSR but USA president rejected the ideal as they don’t know any hidden secret USSR have especially after USA used nukes on Japanese.


USA does not want Iran to have nukes not because of USA but because USA knows that if Iran should develop nukes then Saudi will get nukes from Pakistan which will break USA power over Saudi.
I suspect in 5y times, Turkey will develop their own nukes base on Pakistan technology transfer

seunny4lif:

That’s was before the USSR developed nukes
In 1946, Churchhill want USA and UK invasion of USSR but USA president rejected the ideal as they don’t know any hidden secret USSR have especially after USA used nukes on Japanese.


USA does not want Iran to have nukes not because of USA but because USA knows that if Iran should develop nukes then Saudi will get nukes from Pakistan which will break USA power over Saudi.
I suspect in 5y times, Turkey will develop their own nukes base on Pakistan technology transfer

The way I see it, when a country has nuclear capabilities, they US and its allies will think twice before trying to pillage it for their resources. Small NK already has nuke with the help of Russia. Iran will have nuke either with Russia or China's help. Then the US will not be very afraid.

rottennaija:


The way I see it, when a country has nuclear capabilities, they US and its allies will think twice before trying to pillage it for their resources. Small NK already has nuke with the help of Russia. Iran will have nuke either with Russia or China's help. Then the US will not be very afraid.

That’s the reason too nobody have ever attack USA or Russia but unlike USA which have nuke strikes if it’s ever come under attack, Russia nukes law will only use nukes if Russia get hit by nuke first