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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? (2872 Views)
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2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 7:32am On Sep 05, 2022 |
First and foremost, Atiku/Obi polled 598k votes while Buhari/Osinbajo polled 221K in Delta,2019 presidential election. Now it's Atiku/Okowa,Obi/Datti and Tinubu/Shettima. One of delta son in Okowa is gunning for VP under PDP. Delta registered voters is about 3.5m so when we speak of 1M votes alone for Atiku & PDP that's 28.57% of delta total voters. The question remains about it's feasibility. I'll do an electoral analysis on the strength and weakness of (PDP & APC) in the state basically by federal constituency. 1) Warri federal constituency: PDP's stronghold. Recorded a massive 152k votes against 18k registered by APC in 2019. Udaughan lost his LGA to James Manager in the last senatorial district election. 2019: APC:10.76% PDP:89.23% 2023: APC:13% PDP:85% 2) Ughelli/Udu federal constituency: Omo Agege from ughelli north, the LGA with the largest voting strength in ughelli/Udu federal constituency is APC's guber candidate. Edevbie,an aggrieved PDP guber aspirant is also from ughelli north. Ughelli south/ Udu is 50/50 and 45/50 for APC and PDP respectively. 2019: APC:54.09% PDP:45.90% 2023: APC:55% PDP:45% 3) Ndokwa/ Ukwuani federal constituency: Osanebi, highly popular, is Omo Agege running mate. Onjeme, Sherrif running mate is also from this constituency. Osanebi was previously in PDP but later defected to APC. Also, Hon.Ossai Ossai lost his reelection primaries and Edevbie faction of PDP made him deputy to Edevbie pending the outcome of supreme court. Victor Ezechi,SA to Gov. Okowa won PDP ticket to represent this federal constituency. 2019: APC (without Osanebi) 14.10% PDP ( with Osanebi) 85.89% 2023: APC ( with Osanebi) 30% PDP (without Osanebi) 70% 4) Ika federal constituency: No long talk needed here. 2019: APC 20.74% PDP 79.25% 2023: APC 8% PDP 92% 5) Isoko federal constituency: APC's senatorial candidate,Joel Thomas is from here. Also Leo Ogor of PDP. It will be battle royal with PDP winning as it was in 2019 and 2021 by election. 2019 APC 40.92% PDP 59.07% 2023: APC 40% PDP 60% 6) Ethiope federal constituency: Ibori home base. APC lost a formidable ally in Ogboru. 2019: APC ( with Ogboru) 43.15% PDP 56.84% 2023: APC (without Ogboru) 40% PDP ( Ibori disenchantment) 55% 7) Burutu federal constituency: Hon. Nicholas Mutu base. APC struggles here. Nothing changes now. 2019: APC 18.80% PDP 81.19% 2023: APC 20% PDP 80% ![]() Hon. Julius Pondi and Sen. James Manager federal constituency. Small traces of APC here 2019: APC 7.28% PDP 92.71% 2023: APC 8% PDP 92% 9) Aniocha/Oshimili federal constituency: Nwaboshi is from here. Nwoko from Aniocha, same as Elumelu, PDP's house of representatives candidate LP will do well here especially asaba and environs. PDP and APC battles Oshimili north, albeit with a narrow victory for PDP. Aniocha is PDP's to lose. 2019: APC ( without Nwaboshi) 11.64% PDP ( with Nwaboshi) 88.35% 2023: APC ( with Nwaboshi)18% PDP+without Nwaboshi)72% LP: 10% 10) Okpe/ Sapele/Uvwie federal constituency: Monday Igbuya is back to PDP though in Edevbie faction. He was apc candidate for this constituency in 2019 but lost to PDP's Efe. Oborevwori and Oboro shares this federal constituency. APC will struggle to make an impact. 2019 APC.42.27% PDP. 57.72% 2023 APC. 40% PDP 60% From the above analysis I hereby conclude that Delta is still PDP'S to lose but except massive voters turnout occurs a million votes isn't feasible going by recent trend in the state political atmosphere. Deltans on NL What do you think? Pls... no uncouth statement and abuses is allowed I believe we're are bigger than that. 3 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Nobody: 7:37am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Never 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 7:50am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Delta North: PDP might get the upper hand, although the margin won't be high because of emergence of LP, but I'm projecting LP to win the Urban areas and the PDP clearing the Rural areas. Delta South: This region always give unrealistic/unbelievable numbers in every election, but with the crack in the PDP and sudden deal with the boys in the creek, whosoever they "Work" for clears the zone. Delta Central: Been the most urbanized zone and having Omo-agege as the leading figure, the zone will be heavily shared by the three contesting parties. My prediction: PDP: 30-40% LP: 25-40% APC: 20-25% Also note that the our "Son" sentiments won't fly in a state like Delta. It would be a miracle for any party to get 50% of total votes cast. 2 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 8:25am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern:Don't you think that the nass seats held the same day as the presidential election will affect the outcome of the presidential election result? And pls clarify how north will be shared btw LP and PDP? 1 Like |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by highchief1: 8:33am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123:lp is very strong now in north because of the closeness to anambra.but pdp will win all elections. 1 Like |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 9:26am On Sep 05, 2022 |
highchief1:Ok... I factored in asaba and Oshimili axis for LP |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 10:44am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123: The Urban Towns in North have heavy influx of Easterners who are rooting for LP. Nevertheless, the rural areas will fall completely to the PDP. The NASS election seat would influence but the influence won't be felt. Let's look at the 2019 results and compare the number Agege pulled in his stronghold vs the number he delivered to Buhari. Delta state won't deliver anything meaningful to any party. 2 minus 1 minus 1. |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 10:50am On Sep 05, 2022 |
highchief1: Wining isn't the problem but at what margin? Also the Guber election will be closely contested. 1 Like |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by highchief1: 11:27am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern:yes those plenty gap won’t be possible anymore. 1 Like |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by highchief1: 11:28am On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123:upto ika area |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 11:52am On Sep 05, 2022 |
[quote author=Efewestern post=116372250] The Urban Towns in North have heavy influx of Easterners who are rooting for LP. Nevertheless, the rural areas will fall completely to the PDP. The NASS election seat would influence but the influence won't be felt. Let's look at the 2019 results and compare the number Agege pulled in his stronghold vs the number he delivered to Buhari. Delta state won't deliver anything meaningful to any party. 2 minus 1 minus 1.[/quote Agege delivered for Buhari the marginal difference is irrelevant all what matters is a win I disagree with your last assertion. PDP will win delta it's just by what margin. I pretty sure the margin between PDP and the rest will be about 200k upward. |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 11:54am On Sep 05, 2022 |
highchief1:Ika south maybe but for lka north east they will vote for Okowa |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by highchief1: 12:06pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123:no be by like that again o.the Obi movement is even higher in ika norh east 2 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 1:00pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
highchief1:Hmmm E be like say na me nor know the recent update. On radio, today,the chairman of LP in Ika north east,a pastor,said they will support Obi. How far guy you be deltan? 1 Like |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 1:33pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123: You tend not to realize the influence of LP and its impact in the coming election. Also you should note that a margin of 200k won't be helpful to the PDP in the general election considering the fact that this same state is projected to be a stronghold of the opposition party. Yes we all agree that PDP is projected to win the state. 2 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Udoboss(m): 1:35pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern: |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Sammy07: 1:40pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern: Truth! And in every elections what is important is the margins Imagine this Delta state (V. P) PDP - 400k LP - 200k Apc - 100k Now if Borno (V. P) Apc - 900k PDP - 100k LP - 10k They'll just declare apc winner irrespective weather they didn't win delta. Margins wins are very important in elections. P. O emergence will seriously hurt PDP in the south where it's has a stronghold 2 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 1:58pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern:That's true I don't rate the LP at all I'll rate them after the polls by their performance. I know Obi is eating into PDP's traditional strongholds but it doesn't resonates with me that LP is strong enough to do much damage in Delta. It will be PDP first,APC and LP second and third runner up. 3 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by oluwadabira111(m): 2:11pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Sammy07:A.P.C will not do that big number in borno with the emergence of Bvas.... can bet anything for that. |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Sammy07: 2:28pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
oluwadabira111: Oga i worked as INEC ad-hoc staff in the just concluded Osun election. Forget about bvas Abeq. In a polling unit if they want all the registered voters to appear as accredited voters it's very possible. Since the vIN alongside details is always posted. To be able to vote, bvas requires you verify the person through VIN, or last name or Scan the bar code. Then check the details, then the voters will thumbprint or you capture their face. Oga, one person can register for 20 people so long he has their VIN Cc: BluntCrazeMan Forget about bvas been hard to Rig Abeq. If they'll Rig, they'll rig 1 Like |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 2:40pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Udoboss: Udu, Uvwie and Warri will swing to Obi. Everyone and everybody I've met are fully Obidient but Urban areas alone can't decide winners. What goes on in those rural areas are mostly undocumented so we shouldn't easily write-off the influence of these major party. 3 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 2:42pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123: Maybe you aren't in the state. I'm in the heart of Warri and I can tell you for free that Obi is gaining momentum. If you are a party loyalist then you shouldn't sleep on LP. 2 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 2:54pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern:I'm in Delta, agbor to be precise. Not a loyalist of any party ,just like PDP. Obi's publicity is just springing up,only a few posters and bill board here. |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 2:55pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Sammy07: Margin is important. As it stands, I don't see any state in SS giving any bloc votes to the PDP. The northern ticket isn't helping matter and the emergence of LP brought in a greater alternative. Forget about SE, that region is the only region in Nigeria that can give 95% bloc votes and their turn-up will help shoot the figures of Obi. Interesting times ahead. 4 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by KanwuliaExtra: 2:59pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
2023 is not 2019. Too many factors to consider. Too early to analyze. Let the decampment exercise be completed first. ![]() 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Efewestern: 3:01pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Aiel123: Agbor is the home state of the contesting VP. You don't expect LP to make any move there. Try visiting Uvwie and Warri. |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Sammy07: 3:04pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern: Yeah, you right. Even tho their block votes are always for PDP. Let's see what will happen next year.i still see this race between PDP and apc. Maybe apart from Lagos, I haven't seen any reasonable momentum for LP in SW And I haven't also see any reasonable momentum for APC in SE. Buh PDP is the only party tbag can still have at least 25% in all the states I just wish we can return back to regional government. With 6 regions This presidential no favour us at all |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by DeLaRue: 3:12pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
APC will be hoping for a strong Labour party performance in every SE, and SS state. In fact, APC will benefit a lot if Wike supports Obi. Anything that depresses PDP vote is a plus for APC. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Salvador1: 3:12pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
What Obi needs in this election is if there is a big turnout of voters. Southeast will be 90% South south will be 58% Southwest 29% North Central 38% North east 15% North West 12%. Knowing fully well that northern votes will be divided heavily By January we will know where the pendulum will swing to. 3 Likes |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Salvador1: 3:14pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
DeLaRue:you so much trust north to deliver for tinubu. I laugh. You are yet to see the handwriting. 3 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Aiel123: 3:17pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Efewestern:Ok |
Re: 2023:can Pdp Get A Million Votes In Delta? by Sammy07: 3:24pm On Sep 05, 2022 |
Salvador1: It is not %turnouts that matters but the marginal difference. For example If 500k turnouts in Ekiti Apc - 400k - 92% PDP - 80k - 6% Lp - 20k - 2% Now 1M turnouts in Anambra Apc - 100k - 10% PDP - 300k - 30% Lp - 600k - 60% Who has won? Stop using percentages |
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