SU50:


You've left your forte, you are good at analysis but you now sound like an Obi fan, no insult meant.

None taken.obi is my second choice actually but people prefer obi to atiku.no northerner will rule again in 2023.it is either south or nothing.
For one to be president,you must win at least three regions.tinubu is sure of sw and one zone in the north.obi will win ss/se and can win one zone up north.atiku is not sure of north and he can't win any zone in the south convincingly

This is just the beginning.

garfield1:


Atiku is overrated,he is not on ground.his realbase is ss/se and he has lost that.tinubu will divide core north and win sw

Thing is most people supporting Atiku especially in the north do not like but see him as necessary evil and I think he understands that, all he needs to do is just point out to people how even the Buhari they have been carrying on their heads for ages has failed them (to the average man, his only metrics for evaluation are security, economy, fuel availability and price not AKK gas pipleline, Katsina refinery and Lagos to Kano train), plus the sentiment I already spoke that's against Tinubu.

SU50:


Thing is most people supporting Atiku especially in the north do not like but see him as necessary evil and I think he understands that, all he needs to do is just point out to people how even the Buhari they have been carrying on their heads for ages has failed them (to the average man, his only metrics for evaluation are security, economy, fuel availability and price not AKK gas pipleline, Katsina refinery and Lagos to Kano train), plus the sentiment I already spoke that's against Tinubu.

No matter what he does he cannot inherit buhari votes.his party structure his weak up north plus tinubu has more resources.if he wins the ne/nw narrowly,he still loses.tinubu can afford to lose the north and still win

QuotaSystem:
This is just the beginning.

Which state are you in

SU50:


Out need to understand that voting based on party alone has passed in the north, reason why dankwambo survived 2105, Bauchi booted out MA in 2019 after giving Buhari block votes and Ganduje lost in Kano even after Buhari won't with over a million.

Inuwa may win 2023, but it's going to be worthless victory, sure he will have four more years as governor but after that what happens, he is not a Dankwambo that can survive without political or elective appointments and can he stand the type of politics he is currently reintroducing into the state (bitterness and political thuggery), everything is about him and his family (the yahaya umaru family/, can he survive the witch Hunt that will be meted out to him?

He has succeeded in alienating is ardent and core supporters, people who were with him during his lowest times for political jobbers, whose major ambition are survival and looting, are these the ones he can count on when he is out of office? He is fighting the traditional institution, the business people, the academics, the clerics, everyone.

The northern Christians you talk about online are people I interact with daily and they are pdp fanatics, during my regards interaction for the past 3 months I can say I only hear one person talking about Obi, yes 1, even the day before yesterday I was with some who were talking Atiku. Obi is just hype and noise, he is no where on ground and a vote for him, people know, especially those that want Apc out, is a vote against Atiku even if not a plus for Tinubu.

you need not to drag issues with him. Just leave him to his own.

No dey mention Obi again jare na only SE and part of Ss the guy feel win . The current governor in Gombe is next to nothing but failure. He couldn't even achieved half of what Dakwambo did in first term , just a shame to the progressive. Even the supposed useless Governor in Kogi is making a new leaf in his second term.

Gombe will surely go to pdp, they will align for ne agenda

garfield1:


Oga gombe was originally anpp in 1999.atiku has no loyalist in gombe.goje the strongest politician is a tinubu ally.and many of those pdp people were acn or anpp offshoots.the Christian of gombe will vote obi

garfield1:


None taken.obi is my second choice actually but people prefer obi to atiku. no 4. northerner will rule again in 2023. it is either south or we divide...
For one to be president,you must win at least three regions. 1. tinubu is sure of sw and one zone in the north. 2. obi will win ss/se and can win one zone up north. 3. atiku is not sure of north and he can't win any zone in the south convincingly

1. I won't say Tinibu is sure of a zone in the north, not when it means winning all states in that zone or getting at least 60% in 4 out of 6.

2. I probably have a disdain for online hype, reason why I don't rate Obi at all. He might win the SE, it's still a big if, but I genuinely doubt the SS and definitely not a zone in the north.

3. Atiku's own is a swing, may go either ways, but the pull and sentiment is strongly towards him, may clear all 3 zones or at worse 2 and get enough down SS and SE to cover up.

4. The north is ideally not really interested in the presidency come 2023, but we are not walking blindly into ditch, whoever the north supports, it's going to be on mutual understanding and expectations.

I don't expect the secession cry to rise from SS/SE should Atiku win, atiku will most likely hand down heavy concessions to them, the noise is most likely from SW but I think they have to chalk it up, I don't think they can do anything. Besides, Atiku has been promising restructuring and devolution of powers, at most, he will be backed into that and they are pacified.

Next year is going to be interesting, we pray God help us in getting the best.

I think you are rating Obi too much , osun election should have taught you more lessons . Who go vote for ipob candidate Bauchi , Taraba Gombe will be handsomely won by Atiku . Sha don't change moniker after election

garfield1:


Oga,atiku cannot sweep anywhere in the noryth,even in Adamawa.he will win in Adamawa and taraba but obi will eat into his votes plus tinubu will get 25%.bauchi hates pdp plus they are fanatical. They prefer kwankwaso to atiku.tinubu will likely win gombe.bauchi is 50 50

Tinubu is not guaranteed 60% here in SW . We Yorubas don't give bloc votes . We now play money politcis. If you really want to win sw states then you most spend out your pocket .

Presidential election billing will be minimum 30k of you want our votes . Governors can still bring 10-20k we go deliver for them . But no money no votes

garfield1:


Atiku is overrated,he is not on ground.his realbase is ss/se and he has lost that.tinubu will divide core north and win sw

Troublemaker111:
No dey mention Obi again jare na only SE and part of Ss the guy feel win . The current governor in Gombe is next to nothing but failure. He couldn't even achieved half of what Dakwambo did in first term , just a shame to the progressive. Even the supposed useless Governor in Kogi is making a new leaf in his second term.

Gombe will surely go to pdp, they will align for ne agenda

Inuwa is a pitiful experiment. His own cabinet member dey insult am.

Sincerely I don't see him retaining that position . Just anyhow governor

SU50:


Inuwa is a pitiful experiment. His own cabinet member dey insult am.

Troublemaker111:
Tinubu is not guaranteed 60% here in SW . We Yorubas don't give bloc votes . We now play money politcis. If you really want to win sw states then you most spend out your pocket .

Presidential election billing will be minimum 30k of you want our votes . Governors can still bring 10-20k we go deliver for them . But no money no votes

With obi and atiku in the mix,55% for tinubu is bloc votes.obi 25% atiku 25% others 5%.north will be tinubu 40% atiku 35% obi and others 25%

SU50:


1. I won't say Tinibu is sure of a zone in the north, not when it means winning all states in that zone or getting at least 60% in 4 out of 6.

2. I probably have a disdain for online hype, reason why I don't rate Obi at all. He might win the SE, it's still a big if, but I genuinely doubt the SS and definitely not a zone in the north.

3. Atiku's own is a swing, may go either ways, but the pull and sentiment is strongly towards him, may clear all 3 zones or at worse 2 and get enough down SS and SE to cover up.

4. The north is ideally not really interested in the presidency come 2023, but we are not walking blindly into ditch, whoever the north supports, it's going to be on mutual understanding and expectations.

I don't expect the secession cry to rise from SS/SE should Atiku win, atiku will most likely hand down heavy concessions to them, the noise is most likely from SW but I think they have to chalk it up, I don't think they can do anything. Besides, Atiku has been promising restructuring and devolution of powers, at most, he will be backed into that and they are pacified.

Next year is going to be interesting, we pray God help us in getting the best.

Honestly,you are somehow objective.a lot in the north knows it is the turn of the south.most northern elders are not with atiku,the north seems divided which favorsvtinubu....atiku can not win the nc,it will go to obi or tinubu...all tinubu needs is to win the sw massively,win nc narrowly and stay close to atiku in ne/nw or win one of the two or win both narrowly....it doesnt look good fir atiku...
The hype for obi is not online.here in cross river it is mostly obi.same in my place of work ph.most of those campaigning for him are former pdp fans.atiku has lost the se and will certainly lose ss.obi might overtake him in sw.obi has benue,is eating into fct,plateau ajs nasarawa.obi needs just two states in core north

Troublemaker111:
Tinubu is not guaranteed 60% here in SW . We Yorubas don't give bloc votes . We now play money politcis. If you really want to win sw states then you most spend out your pocket .

Presidential election billing will be minimum 30k of you want our votes . Governors can still bring 10-20k we go deliver for them . But no money no votes

Atiku knows he can't meet up that's why he made udom his campaign DG.he will run out of funds soon

garfield1:


1. Honestly,you are somehow objective.a lot in the north knows it is the turn of the south.most northern elders are not with atiku,the north seems divided which favors tinubu....atiku can not win the nc,it will go to obi or tinubu...all tinubu needs is to win the sw massively,win nc narrowly and stay close to atiku in ne/nw or win one of the two or win both narrowly....it doesnt look good fir atiku...
The hype for obi is not online.here in cross river it is mostly obi.same in my place of work ph.most of those campaigning for him are former pdp fans.atiku has lost the se and will certainly lose ss.obi might overtake him in sw. 2. obi has benue,is eating into fct,plateau ajs nasarawa. 3. obi needs just two states in core north

1. Why do you think people El-Rufai have a lukewarm attitude to Tinubu, they are the galvanizers of the north, and they won't commit except there are assurances and commitments. Him and a lot of northern leaders are not so fond of Atiku but won't also commit to Tinubu till their questions are answered. Tinubu was expecting people to just fall in line, but it won't happen till they see and hear what plans he has for the north and for them politicians.

2. I doubt it.

3. It's easier for a camel to pass through the needle than Obi to win a state deep north.

SU50:


1. Why do you think people El-Rufai have a lukewarm attitude to Tinubu, they are the galvanizers of the north, and they won't commit except there are assurances and commitments. Him and a lot of northern leaders are not so fond of Atiku but won't also commit to Tinubu till their questions are answered. Tinubu was expecting people to just fall in line, but it won't happen till they see and hear what plans he has for the north and for them politicians.

2. I doubt it.

3. It's easier for a camel to pass through the needle than Obi to win a state deep north.

Kaduna is not strategic.el rufai has never liked tinubu and won't go with atiku.he might just support tinubu last minute like during the primaries.. Whoever wins Kaduna will do so narrowly..even obi might get 25% here.vital states are zamfara,katsina,kano,jigawa,kebbi..pdp is divided in zamfara,they have never won there.all the chieftains of zamfara are with tinubu.the governor is the nw apc coordinator.bagudu is not too committed but he is chairman of apc governors and is fighting with aliero.it is 50 50..in katsina,masari has said they are grateful to tinubu for helping buhari to power.atiku has no chance here.wamakko in sokoto should give tinubu at least 40%.,in jigawa,badaru is with tinubu and should will give tinubu at least 50.kwankwaso too will get votes.kano will go to rabiu buy ganduje will fight to get Tinubu good votes..shekarau can't do much.you know how yobe and borno is..
Lolo in niger is with tinubu same as kwara gov and nasarawa gov.I dont know for yahaya bello..plateau gov is tinubu DG and is contesting for senate.he will give votes.akume is a tinubu man in benue...

For obi,datti can get him votes in Kaduna north while Jonathan asake can divide Christian votes.t.y danjuma in taraba can singlehandedly give him 25%.dogara can rally votes for him in bauchi.the numan federation in Adamawa can give obi 25%..if obi can get 25% in all nc states plus fct,he will need just one of taraba,Adamawa or Kaduna

garfield1:


Which state are you in

I’d rather not say. Thanks.

QuotaSystem:


I’d rather not say. Thanks.

But your a northerner Sir

garfield1:


Kaduna is not strategic.el rufai has never liked tinubu and won't go with atiku.he might just support tinubu last minute like during the primaries.. Whoever wins Kaduna will do so narrowly..even obi might get 25% here.vital states are zamfara,katsina,kano,jigawa,kebbi..pdp is divided in zamfara,they have never won there.all the chieftains of zamfara are with tinubu.the governor is the nw apc coordinator.bagudu is not too committed but he is chairman of apc governors and is fighting with aliero.it is 50 50..in katsina,masari has said they are grateful to tinubu for helping buhari to power.atiku has no chance here.wamakko in sokoto should give tinubu at least 40%.,in jigawa,badaru is with tinubu and should will give tinubu at least 50.kwankwaso too will get votes.kano will go to rabiu buy ganduje will fight to get Tinubu good votes..shekarau can't do much.you know how yobe and borno is..
Lolo in niger is with tinubu same as kwara gov and nasarawa gov.I dont know for yahaya bello..plateau gov is tinubu DG and is contesting for senate.he will give votes.akume is a tinubu man in benue...

For obi,datti can get him votes in Kaduna north while Jonathan asake can divide Christian votes.t.y danjuma in taraba can singlehandedly give him 25%.dogara can rally votes for him in bauchi.the numan federation in Adamawa can give obi 25%..if obi can get 25% in all nc states plus fct,he will need just one of taraba,Adamawa or Kaduna

You see why your analysis is one sided
Lalong, Ganduje,Masari,Lolo, Badaru,Akume will get Tinubu good votes.
What about Lamido,Turaki, Aliyu, Tambuwal,Baba Kaitta,Dankwambo giving good votes to Atiku.
North will be divided.
Tinubu only has SW
SS is Atiku's to lose.
SE Atiku will surpass Tinubu.

garfield1:


1. Kaduna is not strategic.el rufai has never liked tinubu and won't go with atiku.he might just support tinubu last minute like during the primaries.. Whoever wins Kaduna will do so narrowly..even obi might get 25% here.vital states are zamfara,katsina,kano,jigawa,kebbi..pdp is divided in zamfara,they have never won there.all the chieftains of zamfara are with tinubu.the governor is the nw apc coordinator.bagudu is not too committed but he is chairman of apc governors and is fighting with aliero.it is 50 50..in katsina,2. masari has said they are grateful to tinubu for helping buhari to power.atiku has no chance here.wamakko in sokoto should give tinubu at least 40%.,in jigawa, 3. badaru is with tinubu and should will give tinubu at least 50.kwankwaso too will get votes.kano will go to rabiu buy 4. ganduje will fight to get Tinubu good votes..shekarau can't do much.you know how yobe and borno is..
5. Lolo in niger is with tinubu same as kwara gov and nasarawa gov.I dont know for yahaya bello..6. plateau gov is tinubu DG and is contesting for senate.he will give votes. 7. akume is a tinubu man in benue...

For obi, 8. datti can get him votes in Kaduna north while Jonathan asake can divide Christian votes. 9. t.y danjuma in taraba can singlehandedly give him 25%. 10. dogara can rally votes for him in bauchi. 11. the numan federation in Adamawa can give obi 25%..if obi can get 25% in all nc states plus fct,he will need just one of taraba,Adamawa or Kaduna

1. The whole of the govs. different to him ,he is the real power behind their status (bagudu as Pgf, lalong as NGF), El-Rufai is the galvanizer that can mobilize people to a cause.

2. Never rely on Masari, an incompetent administrator whose own people don't rate him.

3. Can Badaru contend with 1. Sule Lamido's forces. 2. A northern sentiment against Tinubu. 3. A feeling that Buhari has failed to give Tinubu significant percentage in Jigawa?

Just a week or so I saw a report where he was saying that he is already fulfilled and is a businessman, should his candidate (governorship that is, not even presidential) lose, he can go back to his engagements, is this the person you expect to deliver for Tinubu?

4. Ganduje and Shekarau will right for the second position in Kano CDs and Shekarau will give him a run for his money even if he loses the 2nd.

5. Niger is one state that stands the easiest of falling to pdp, kwara is hard to call.

6. Plateua is a pdp stronghold and it seems they are coming back. Lalong may not have as much impact as is being thought.

7. Selling Apc in benue? That's going to be interesting. I think the state has grown to hate most things associated with Apc, if not that ortom is unserious, this shouldn't even be a debate.

8. Datto won't win his ward and for Asake dividing their votes, what do they gain? Apc is most likely winning the governorship leaving them with nothing if the go in for LP whose chances are not so bright, what do they gain at the end of the day? Political experiment.

9, 10, 11. To what end? Gain what? When you stand the chance of being represented at the center by an almost ready meal, you ditch it for an exercise to in futility?

Aiel123:

You see why your analysis is one sided
Lalong, Ganduje,Masari,Lolo, Badaru,Akume will get Tinubu good votes.
What about Lamido,Turaki, Aliyu, Tambuwal,Baba Kaitta,Dankwambo giving good votes to Atiku.
North will be divided.
Tinubu only has SW
SS is Atiku's to lose.
SE Atiku will surpass Tinubu.

You can't compare lamido,turaki, to badaru na.why didn't they get votes since 2011? Turaki is irrelevant.dont forget tambuwal won reelection with 300 votes.baba kaita is a nobody in katsina na.they just decided to dash him that senate.babangida aliyu has never been a grasstootet.he was a civil servant obj imposed in niger to spite kure.dankwambo is strong but he is with wike faction..it is not as if lamido and co cannot give atiku votes but it will be less than what apc men will give .those men are almost retired na.its like saying uduaghan will give more votes than ejele or tompolo...
Atiku has almost lost ss..atiku will surpass tinubu in se only in anambra and enugu and atiku...Tinubu will surpass him in IMO and ebonyi..

garfield1:


You can't compare lamido,turaki, to badaru na.why didn't they get votes since 2011? Turaki is irrelevant.dont forget tambuwal And reelection with 300 votes.baba kaita is a nobody in katsina na.they just decided to dash him that senate.babangida aliyu has never been a grasstootet.he was a civil servant obj imposed in niger to spite kure.dankwambo is strong but he is with wike faction..it is not as if lamido and co cannot give atiku votes but it will be less than what apc men will give .those men are almost retired na.its like saying uduaghan will give more votes than ejele or tompolo...
Atiku has almost lost ss..atiku will surpass tinubu in se only in anambra and enugu and atiku...Tinubu will surpass him in IMO and ebonyi..

Ebonyi I agree
Imo... Never.
Atiku will surpass Tinubu in the SS. He is more likely to win follow by Obi.
Remember it was against Buhari oo not Tinubu so Lamido was overwhelmed.
Now the north is ripe for anyone
You said Baba Kaitta isn't relevant how come he is pulling weight in Daura zone.
You see if Mustapha Inuwa defects to PDP, it's going to be a 50/50 contest
I never considered Niger as a state Atiku will win.
Infact I'm more hopeful of Jigawa.
Why is Katsina APC , Masari and Dikko struggling to keep Inuwa and resign back Fatahu Muhammad if not because of their worth?
And Dankwambo he can be won over.
Noone will get a clear majority in the north.

garfield1:


But your a northerner Sir

Absolutely. From the core.

Pdp = Apc.

garfield1:


Pdp is dead son

keep deceiving yourself

Audio decamping

You've left your forte, you are good at analysis but you now sound like an Obi fan, no insult meant.You've left your forte, you are good at analysis but you now sound like an Obi fan, no insult meant....

I wish you won't delete this moniker on the election day

garfield1:


With obi and atiku in the mix,55% for tinubu is bloc votes.obi 25% atiku 25% others 5%.north will be tinubu 40% atiku 35% obi and others 25%

Aiel123:

Ebonyi I agree
Imo... Never.
Atiku will surpass Tinubu in the SS. He is more likely to win follow by Obi.
Remember it was against Buhari oo not Tinubu so Lamido was overwhelmed.
Now the north is ripe for anyone
You said Baba Kaitta isn't relevant how come he is pulling weight in Daura zone.
You see if Mustapha Inuwa defects to PDP, it's going to be a 50/50 contest
I never considered Niger as a state Atiku will win.
Infact I'm more hopeful of Jigawa.
Why is Katsina APC , Masari and Dikko struggling to keep Inuwa and resign back Fatahu Muhammad if not because of their worth?
And Dankwambo he can be won over.
Noone will get a clear majority in the north.

IMO pdp is divided into ihedioha and anyanwu faction....anyanwu is with wike faction and the only senator pdp has is with labour.apc dominates okigwe and orlu zones..
Concerning lamido,a strong politician will always stand strong.why did buhari not win taraba? Why can't buhari win plateau north or benue? Lamido won in 2007 because obj imposed him plus the then governor joined pdp.the candidate he used in 2019 and 2015 aminu ringim has dumped pdp.lamido family has cornered jigawa pdp while badaru has shared all the offices among all the stakeholders and he got nothing.so who do you think the people will support?

How do you know kaita is pulling weight in daura? So you expect daura people to vote pdp? Can ika vote apc? You cannot measure strength alone by defections.the ssg inuwa is a loyalist of dahiru mangal a smuggler who is buhari enemy in katsina.he defected from pdp and is going back there.dont forget that sokoto deputy is also thinking of defecting... Forget about katsina,they will always vote where buhari is.moreover,masari is working with the bandits

Atiku won't meet up Sha tell your master to carry bags of money to each polling boot , na money we sabi here. Owó ni koko With money I can guarantee him my votes together with my people. Have never lost my polling unit in any election

garfield1:


Atiku knows he can't meet up that's why he made udom his campaign DG.he will run out of funds soon

SU50:


1. The whole of the govs. different to him ,he is the real power behind their status (bagudu as Pgf, lalong as NGF), El-Rufai is the galvanizer that can mobilize people to a cause.

2. Never rely on Masari, an incompetent administrator whose own people don't rate him.

3. Can Badaru contend with 1. Sule Lamido's forces. 2. A northern sentiment against Tinubu. 3. A feeling that Buhari has failed to give Tinubu significant percentage in Jigawa?

Just a week or so I saw a report where he was saying that he is already fulfilled and is a businessman, should his candidate (governorship that is, not even presidential) lose, he can go back to his engagements, is this the person you expect to deliver for Tinubu?

4. Ganduje and Shekarau will right for the second position in Kano CDs and Shekarau will give him a run for his money even if he loses the 2nd.

5. Niger is one state that stands the easiest of falling to pdp, kwara is hard to call.

6. Plateua is a pdp stronghold and it seems they are coming back. Lalong may not have as much impact as is being thought.

7. Selling Apc in benue? That's going to be interesting. I think the state has grown to hate most things associated with Apc, if not that ortom is unserious, this shouldn't even be a debate.

8. Datto won't win his ward and for Asake dividing their votes, what do they gain? Apc is most likely winning the governorship leaving them with nothing if the go in for LP whose chances are not so bright, what do they gain at the end of the day? Political experiment.

9, 10, 11. To what end? Gain what? When you stand the chance of being represented at the center by an almost ready meal, you ditch it for an exercise to in futility?

El rufai will eventually support tinubu afterall his children are contesting in apc..
Masari will use the insecurity to bring votes for tinubu plus the love for buhari?
Badaru humiliated them lamido in 2015 and 2019.lamido has turned jigawa pdp into family affair while badaru didnt even contest anything so they will go with badaru..
Niger will go narrowly to apc.the governor and top politicians in grassroot are apc.aliyu is too elitist.ibb and abdulsalam are pro south..
Kwara is not close.even sdp is working with apc.yorubas are majority here so nothing for atiku..
Plateau north senator gyang is now in labour and galvanizing votes for obi and north is pdp strongest area and is now divided.pdp just lost at the tribunal jos federal seat.in the last rerun,apc almost won bassa a pdp area and won in pankshin.dariye is still popular in plateau and will go labour or apc.the labour guber candidate dakum is strong.lalong is tinubu DG,he is contesting for senate and controls plateau south.plateau pdp is divided into useni and jang faction.jang is supporting wike..

Buhari lost benue by 7000 votes.ortom is becoming very unpopular there plus he is against atiku.the apc candidate father alia us the next governor.nobody here is canvassing for atiku.benue hate fulanis and will prefer a southerner to rule.it is between obi and Tinubu..
Datti may not make any headway but asake will.most pdp voters in Kaduna are from southern Kaduna.asake is the leader of sokapu thats southern Kaduna union.southern Kaduna votes will be divided.the most popular pdp man in Kaduna north sen hunkuyi is now in nnpp.
Atiku does not have the mass appeal Buhari had.even kwankwaso has it.