If you thought there was no chance that Peter Obi could become the president of Nigeria come 2023, Think again. There are serious permutations behind the scenes.

First, the constitution of Nigeria states that to become the president elect, a candidate

1. Must win a simple majority of all votes cast. That is, the candidate will score the highest number of votes
2. Must win 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of all 36 states and the FCT = 24 states

We can all agree that nobody is sure of the winner of the 2023 elections at this point in time with the 3 front runners. Just the other day, the well respected poll by the ANAP foundation came out showing that Peter Obi will likely poll the highest number of votes at the presidential election.

Now here's the calculation

If Peter Obi continues to pull stronger and hold his forte, even if he fails to meet the 2nd requirement above, then no candidate among the 3 contestants will satisfy both requirements. The constitution states that in the event that no candidate is declared winner of the election, there will be a run-off election between the top candidate and the runner up.

Peter Obi is hoping to be the candidate that gets the highest votes in the election, which means the contest will be down to 2 candidates.

If this is the case, then the contest will be down to Peter Obi vs Atiku or Peter Obi vs Tinubu

Peter Obi can win this election. Don't underrate him!

- SocialMediaMan

President Peter Obi. No other option. I am totally sure.

Mazi Peter Obi is a nice candidate and the best choice but what we really want is Biafra restoration nothing more nothing less

Nwabueze22:
Mazi Peter Obi is a nice candidate and the best choice but what we really want is Biafra restoration nothing more nothing less

Says a fulani herdsman disguising as Igbo

socialmediaman:
If you thought there was no chance that Peter Obi could become the president of Nigeria come 2023, Think again. There is serious permutations behind the scenes.

First, the constitution of Nigeria states that to become the president elect, a candidate

1. Must win a simple majority of all votes cast. That is, the candidate will score the highest number of votes
2. Must win 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of all 36 states and the FCT = 24 states

We can all agree that nobody is sure of the winner of the 2023 elections at this point in time with the 3 front runners. Just the other day, the well respected poll by the ANAP foundation came out showing that Peter Obi will likely poll the highest number of votes at the presidential election.

Now here's the calculation

If Peter Obi continues to pull stronger and hold his forte, even if he fails to meet the 2nd requirement above, then no candidate among the 3 contestants will satisfy both requirements. The constitution states that in the event that no candidate is declared winner of the election, there will be a run-off election between the top candidate and the runner up.

Peter Obi is hoping to be the candidate that gets the highest votes in the election, which means the contest will be down to 2 candidates.

If this is the case, then the contest will be down to Peter Obi vs Atiku or Peter Obi vs Tinubu

Peter Obi can win this election. Don't underrate him!

- SocialMediaMan

An idle brain running riot on vain labouring.

Your head is paining you?

If you are taking out states from the North and south west which Obi cant get 25% for sure. How many state will be left for him to get 25%.

Secondly, with the northern state like shettima's bornu, buhari kastina, Elrufau kaduna and tinubu lagos with the big block votes which can surpass all other states votes...in tinubu's bag.

Where is peter getting his majority votes? From south-east and south-south where only bornu and Lagos state 7.2 million votes will cover.

Are you alright? Sir

Is it possible to convulse from hate? Asking for these 2 fellas up there ⬆ ⬆

President elect on social media especially twitter and nairaland abi

lhordspy:
Your head is paining you?

If you are taking out states from the North and south west which Obi cant get 25% for sure. How many state will be left for him to get 25%.

Secondly, with the northern state like shettima's bornu, buhari kastina, Elrufau kaduna and tinubu lagos with the big block votes which can surpass all other states votes...in tinubj bag.

Where is peter getting his majority votes? From south-east and south-south where only bornu and Lagos state 7.2 million votes will cover.

Are you alright? Sir

How did you come to the conclusion that Obi can't get 25% from South West states? Even with all the influence APC has in Lagos, they have never won lagos with up to 60% of the total votes.

When you say north, are you leaving out Kogi, Benue, Plateau and FCT?

socialmediaman:


How did you come to the conclusion that Obi can't get 25% from South West states? You mean Peter can't get 25% in Lagos state?
When you say north, are you leaving out Kogi, Benue, Plateau and FCT?

Sir, Lets be frank with each other. I am a tinubu supporter but i will always stand on the truth. 7+million vote for grab in Lagos, and the North not very sure because of kwankwaso and atiku matter. You think Tinubu will joke with the south-west?? Especially lagos with 7+million vote.

'Bruh, it will take all it will take'


I hope you understand the bolded, i wouldnt want to sound plain. You are an adult, you should understand....... bruh, tinubu will give it all, over there and like i said : 'it will takes all it will takes'


Obi shouod forget south-west.

lhordspy:


Sir, Lets be frank with each other. I am a tinubu supporter but i will always stand on the truth. 7+million vote for grab in Lagos, and the North not very sure because of kwankwaso and atiku matter. You think Tinubu will joke with the south-west?? Especially lagos with 7+million vote.

'Bruh, it will take all it will take'


I hope you understand the bolded, i wouldnt want to sound plain. You are an adult, you should understand....... bruh, tinubu will give it all, over there and like i said : 'it will takes all it will takes'


Obi shouod forget south-west.

APC has never won Lagos state with up to 60% of the votes since 2015. There's a reason behind that.

So tell me, are you more qualified to speak about Tinubu's victory more than the respected ANAP polls that put Peter Obi ahead by 8 points after doing on the ground polling of real people in many different states?

socialmediaman:


APC has never won Lagos state with up to 60% of the votes since 2015. There's a reason behind that.

So tell me, are you more qualified to speak about Tinubu's victory more than the respected ANAP polls that put Peter Obi ahead by 8 points after doing on the ground polling of real people?

OmG, thank God you are not near me now. I scream so bad right now. What is wrong with you? How can you use that mediocre poll as yard stick?

The same ANAP poll which was controlled and done by peter obi's friend? I have forgotten that his name. Make your research.

The same ANAP that gave tinubu i think 18% in south west??


What is wrong with you?

Nwabueze22:
Mazi Peter Obi is a nice candidate and the best choice but what we really want is Biafra restoration nothing more nothing less

United Nations general assembly is holding their meeting in New York with all the world leaders in attendance,why not go there and demand for Biafra like Yoruba Nation agitators?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAXL1mNEOhc

lhordspy:



OmG, thank God you are not near me now. I scream so bad right now. What is wrong with you? How can you use that mediocre poll as yard stick?

The same ANAP poll which was controlled and done by peter obi's friend? I have forgotten that his name. Make your research.

The same ANAP that gave tinubu i think 18% in south west??


What is wrong with you?

Tinubu had 18% (the highest score) because 65% of voters were either undecided, will not vote, or refused to state their candidates. Did you even understand the poll result?

Note, if the 65% decide to vote in a similar way as the 18% Tinubu vs 12% Peter Obi, it will give Tinubu around 53% of the total votes in the general election.

socialmediaman:


Tinubu had 18% (the highest score) because 65% of voters were either undecided, will not vote, or refused to state their candidates. Did you even understand the poll result?

Note, if the 65% decide to vote in a similar way as the 18% Tinubu vs 12% Peter Obi, it will give Tinubu around 53% of the total votes in the general election.

So who conclude a poll and gives out a winner with so many undecided voters??

My point is ANAPP poll is just trying to get attention to its useless self or they are just playing by Peter obi propaganda gallery.

lhordspy:



OmG, thank God you are not near me now. I scream so bad right now. What is wrong with you? How can you use that mediocre poll as yard stick?

The same ANAP poll which was controlled and done by peter obi's friend? I have forgotten that his name. Make your research.

The same ANAP that gave tinubu i think 18% in south west??
What is wrong with you?

Hahahaha...So ANAP will jeopardize their integrity for friendship sake?

Have you seen them engage in rubbish before now?

So you want us to believe you against them?

Why not look at facts on ground? Reality beckons

"well respected ANAP poll"

Is it the kind of respect u greet ur parents with karate kick

lhordspy:



So who conclude a poll and gives out a winner with so many undecided voters??

My point is ANAPP poll is just trying to get attention to its useless self or they are just playing by Peter obi propaganda gallery.

The poll concluded that Peter Obi was ahead of both candidates by 8 points, but not enough to conclude the winner because the number of undecided voters were more than the 8 points with which he was leading both candidates. Do you get it now?

ANAP did a very good job predicting the 2011, 2015 and 2019 polls so give them due credit

https://businessday.ng/politics/article/anap-foundation-polls-in-2015-2019-gave-it-to-apc-but-jonathan-in-2011/

Whynotthetruth:


Hahahaha...So ANAP will jeopardize their integrity for friendship sake?

Have you seen them engage in rubbish before now?

So you want us to believe you against them?

Why not look at facts on ground? Reality beckons

What integrity... A poll which awarded 68% for peter in southeast with 0% for tinubu.

That same useless poll, gave tinubu 18% in south west and gave peter i think 12% or so, making the remaining 48% votes undecided...

Did that not sound like even a joke to you. A very bad attempt at a joke as at that.

Where is the integrity in that?....

lhordspy:



What integrity... A poll which awarded 68% for peter in southeast with 0% for tinubu.

That same useless poll, gave tinubu 18% in south west and gave peter i think 12% or so, making the remaining 48% votes undecided...

Did that not sound like even a joke to you. A very bad attempt at a joke as at that.

Where is the integrity in that?....

31% of voters in the south east have not revealed the candidate(s) they will vote for, Tinubu will certainly get votes in the south east.

But if you want to go by history, take Anambra state for example. Atiku won 94% of the votes in 2019 while Jonathan won 99% of the votes in 2015. How many % do you think Peter Obi will now get?

lhordspy:



What integrity... A poll which awarded 68% for peter in southeast with 0% for tinubu.

That same useless poll, gave tinubu 18% in south west and gave peter i think 12% or so, making the remaining 48% votes undecided...

Did that not sound like even a joke to you. A very bad attempt at a joke as at that.

Where is the integrity in that?....

Stop crying .. isn't to early to begin the lamentations?

You will have enough time and buckets to fill with your sweet tears

Tinubu will never rule Nigeria ...

lhordspy:



OmG, thank God you are not near me now. I scream so bad right now. What is wrong with you? How can you use that mediocre poll as yard stick?

The same ANAP poll which was controlled and done by peter obi's friend? I have forgotten that his name. Make your research.

The same ANAP that gave tinubu i think 18% in south west??


What is wrong with you?

Stop crying .. isn't to early to begin the lamentations?

You will have enough time and buckets to fill with your sweet tears

Tinubu will never rule Nigeria ...

socialmediaman:


31% of voters in the south east have not revealed the candidate(s) they will vote for, Tinubu will certainly get votes in the south east.

But if you want to go by history, take Anambra state for example. Atiku won 94% of the votes in 2019 while Jonathan won 99% of the votes in 2015. How many % do you think Peter Obi will now get?

So does that justify the over 48% votes which was stated undecided in the south-west. If the south-east could have made up their mind to the extent that atiku and peter are have already have like over 90% of the votes in the bag already according to the poll leaving just few or less undecided.

What makes the poll conductor thinks we in the south-west have over 48% , i repeat over 48% undecided.. That is almost like half of the voters undecided. The polls reeks of sentiment irrespective of past analysis and prediction which they made during the past year. Something seems off about this, the smoke of sentimentalism and bias could be seen hovering around this one.


I, with the little knowledge i have about politics. Especially in the south west my which i know the crooks and crannies of its political doings. I am correct to say the post is wrong entirely and my thoughts are justifiable.

socialmediaman:


31% of voters in the south east have not revealed the candidate(s) they will vote for, Tinubu will certainly get votes in the south east.

But if you want to go by history, take Anambra state for example. Atiku won 94% of the votes in 2019 while Jonathan won 99% of the votes in 2015. How many % do you think Peter Obi will now get?

I am not debating the facts that peter obi will get large chunk of votes in the east. Infact he can get 100% plus one , for all i care. But saying the south-west has 48% undecided votes with 18% percent going to Tinubu is the highest form of sentiment and bias ever seen in a political analyses.

If i may ask, what makes half of southwest so undecided. What if i may ask?

lhordspy:

So does that justify the over 48% votes which was stated undecided in the south-west. If the south-east could have made up their mind to the extent that atiku and peter are have already have like over 90% of the votes in the bag already according to the poll leaving just few or less undecided.

What makes the poll conductor thinks we in the south-west have over 48% , i repeat over 48% undecided.. That is almost like half of the voters undecided. The polls reeks of sentiment irrespective of past analysis and prediction which they made during the past year. Something seems off about this, the smoke of sentimentalism and bias could be seen hovering around this one.

I, with the little knowledge i have about politics. Especially in the south west my which i know the crooks and crannies of its political doings. I am correct to say the post is wrong entirely and my thoughts are justifiable.

1. I don't know where your 48% is coming from so let me explain once again. 35% are undecided in the South West. 25% did not reveal their candidate. It could be that they have decided but did not want to tell the pollsters, or could be they have not decided. This is not unusual because many people in the south west from all ethnic groups are not supporting Tinubu. His Muslim muslim ticket didn't do him good either.

2. You can't just dismiss a poll that has established credibility over a decade, just because it doesn't favor your candidate. online polls upon polls have put Peter Obi ahead, you didn't believe it, now this on the ground assessment one has also put him ahead, do you have more resources than these people?

Ok let's see your own poll with just 1% of Lagos residents since you're more credible than ANAP poll.

lhordspy:


I am not debating the facts that peter obi will get large chunk of votes in the east. Infact he can get 100% plus one , for all i care. But saying the south-west has 48% undecided votes with 18% percent going to Tinubu is the highest form of sentiment and bias ever seen in a political analyses.

If i may ask, what makes half of southwest so undecided. What if i may ask?

I can't answer that question, but if I must take a guess, many people are still weighing on the candidates. For Tinubu, the muslim muslim ticket may hurt him because the church is kicking against it, people like Osinbajo are not rallying behind him, even Buhari is not rallying behind him and so on, so this makes people have to choose between loyalty to party/tribe vs their faith which is equally important for Nigerians. For Atiku and Obi, I think the dilemma for people is who to choose between both. Most of them have been voting for PDP but labor party has suddenly taken over the space, so it puts a lot of people in the middle, but as the elections come closer, most of them will hopefully make up their minds

This is my guess, however, fact remains that ANAP has established credibility in polling more than any random nairalander

socialmediaman:


1. I don't know where your 48% is coming from so let me explain once again. 35% are undecided in the South West. 25% did not reveal their candidate. It could be that they have decided but did not want to tell the pollsters, or could be they have not decided. This is not unusual because many people in the south west from all ethnic groups are not supporting Tinubu. His Muslim muslim ticket didn't do him good either.

2. You can't just dismiss a poll that has established credibility over a decade, just because it doesn't favor your candidate. online polls upon polls have put Peter Obi ahead, you didn't believe it, now this on the ground assessment one has also put him ahead, do you have more resources than these people?

Ok let's see your own poll with just 1% of Lagos residents since you're more credible than ANAP poll.

I stopped reading when i got to the bolded part. Sorry about the time wasting so far it's obvious we are never going to ever come into conclusion on this said matter evebn if we continue this till next tommorrow non-stop.

You are obviously off-reality or just been deluded on purpose. But one thing certain here is you are on the wrong side of reality with the bolded up there. I can't say more than that.

Shalom sir.

lhordspy:



I stopped reading when i got to the bolded part. Sorry about the time wasting so far it's obvious we are never going to ever come into conclusion on this said matter evebn if we continue this till next tommorrow non-stop.

You are obviously off-reality or just been deluded on purpose. But one thing certain here is you are on the wrong side of reality with the bolded up there. I can't say more than that.

Shalom sir.

If everyone is supporting Tinubu why has APC not won Lagos with up to 60% of the total votes? Facts are out there staring us in the face

socialmediaman:


I can't answer that question, but if I must take a guess, many people are still weighing on the candidates. For Tinubu, the muslim muslim ticket may hurt him because the church is kicking against it, people like Osinbajo are not rallying behind him, even Buhari is not rallying behind him and so on, so this makes people have to choose between loyalty to party/tribe vs their faith which is equally important for Nigerians. For Atiku and Obi, I think the dilemma for people is who to choose between both. Most of them have been voting for PDP but labor party has suddenly taken over the space, so it puts a lot of people in the middle, but as the elections come closer, most of them will hopefully make up their minds

This is my guess, however, fact remains that ANAP has established credibility in polling more than any random nairalander

Let me assist you here. Do you want to know how this will play out. It will play out exactly like 2019. The whole of Nigeria was against Buhari, but he came out victorious. You know why? Block votes.. Let me tell you something, i know you might want to start bringing the atiku factor into it. Remember atiku contested with this same peter. Even we in the south-west voted against buhari. Lagos was nearly lost by Apc.

Now my opinion: Atiku and obi made a very baf moves by going different way, even in your analyses given. We can both agree that Most votes Obi will be getting are all traditionally Atiku votes. Tinubu wont be getting those votes anyways. So obi and atiku are just going to share the votes they both got 2019.

I cant say if tinubu will inherit buhari votes or bot, because i know you will bring this arguement up. But what i know is that both Atiku and Obi will never get any votes asides the one they both jointly got in 2019 which is traditionally PDP votes. And it will be shared between the both of them hungrily.


Remember also, the as you stated stood against buhari too in 2019, even some muslims like me.... And it never changes anything. Remember! Talkmore of now where the muslim will never votes Obi. Sorry i sounded crude in my last statement, but i just want to be very truthful and plain with you.

Infact, with what am seeing sir, Tinubu doesnt even have a competition. Just atiku and obi struggling for 'life' here.

socialmediaman:


If everyone is supporting Tinubu why has APC not won Lagos with up to 60% of the total votes? Facts are out there staring us in the face

Like you guys usually says about no one inheriting buhari's vote because this is different. Same thing apply to Tinubu too, this is freaking different, Tinubu is directly involve now and over 7+million votes uo for grabs. Who will joke with that??

BlakKluKluxKlan:


An idle brain running riot on vain labouring.

Hav ur oga thiefnub paid u d 10k this month?

lhordspy:


Let me assist you here. Do you want to know how this will play out. It will play out exactly like 2019. The whole of Nigeria was against Buhari, but he came out victorious. You know why? Block votes.. Let me tell you something, i know you might want to start bringing the atiku factor into it. Remember atiku contested with this same peter. Even we in the south-west voted against buhari. Lagos was nearly lost by Apc.

Now my opinion: Atiku and obi made a very baf moves by going different way, even in your analyses given. We can both agree that Most votes Obi will be getting are all traditionally Atiku votes. Tinubu wont be getting those votes anyways. So obi and atiku are just going to share the votes they both got 2019.

I cant say if tinubu will inherit buhari votes or bot, because i know you will bring this arguement up. But what i know is that both Atiku and Obi will never get any votes asides the one they both jointly got in 2019 which is traditionally PDP votes. And it will be shared between the both of them hungrily.

Remember also, the as you stated stood against buhari too in 2019, even some muslims like me.... And it never changes anything. Remember! Talkmore of now where the muslim will never votes Obi. Sorry i sounded crude in my last statement, but i just want to be very truthful and plain with you.

Infact, with what am seeing sir, Tinubu doesnt even have a competition. Just atiku and obi struggling for 'life' here.

Ok let me assist you with some data you're erroneously ommitting in your calculations.

in 2013 Lagos chapter of ACN which was Tinubu's party claimed that there were 45% of Lagos population was Igbos. It was posted here on nairaland: https://www.nairaland.com/1379706/finally-finally-acn-lagos-confirms

It's very obvious that there is a very heated and needlessly divisive tribal debate in this election that will make people vote along tribal lines, and yet again, there is another heated debate along religion. In fact, tribe is as important as religion to many Nigerians. People may have to choose between a combination of tribe and religion in this election, from the way things are shaping up.

Your last statement was that muslims will never vote Peter Obi. I appreciate the honesty, but let me also remind you that there are about 50% christians in the south west as well. I am not suggesting that they will vote along religious or tribal lines, but do you see where religious and tribal bigotry is taking the election?

Furthermore, this election is possibly by far the one with the largest first time voters in the history of Nigerian elections. I don't think most of these first time voters registered to vote Atiku or Tinubu, many of them were eligible all the while but didn't bother to register to vote.

Finally, back to the poll results. That's the fact on ground combined with common sense logic, which are far more credible than sentiments