lhordspy:
Very true... It is more like Obi and Atiku fighting for their already 2019 joint votes. Tinubu is not affected a bit.

The number of new votes or should i say voters that is adding to the 2019 own .. Is just 1m+ newly registered voters, after INEC screened the double registration out.

Even if the 1m+ people are to vote for obi, which is practically impossible, add it to the number of Atiku/obi votes in 2019(which is impossible because Atiku already have the northern voters in his bag) ... It wont be enough to even win an election.

Incase you dont understand what am trying to say. Even if you join Obi votes presently + Atiku's vote + the 1m newly registered voters, it isnt still enough to defeat a certain Tinubu APC if going by the Last general election.

Why am refferring to the last general elections is because nothing changes, nothing have change. Except the rallies and supposedly '2million' match which we witness almost every seconds.

The same people engaging in rallies or supporting obi, never voted for APC 2019.

The same set of people feeling marginalised on religious bases, because of the muslim-muslim ticket will never vote for APC in 2019 too.

The same christian bodies antagonising muslim muslim ticket, Never supported Buhari 2019 also.

The same Afenifere, never supported APC 2019

The same South East, South south.. Are traditionally PDP voters, their votes never changes the outcome of 2019.

Infact some of the muslims voted Atiku/obi 2019, but this time arround with the present political situation where the campaign as been turned into religious one, religous sentiments have found it way in Nigeria politics now, those votes are going to APC this time.

Undecided voters in 2019 like me, who voted for Atiku/obi will never ever vote for any of them this time, why? Because of the aggressive way of the obidients followers. I know so many of us here that are on that line or should i say clinging to that excuse.

The south-west voted overwhelming for Atiku/obi 2019, not because of the love for Atiku or Obi but because we felt the pain of the failed First tenure of buhari then.. Even lagos was almost lost by APC even with Tinubu.
I feel my analysis is right here because those states lost by APC 2019 in southwest, was won by same APC governors during the governorship election except Oyo state which was narrowly lost.
Now, coming to 2023, i feels a tribal sentiment will play major role here, APC will win massively in south west. But what if APC lost, they lost Overall in the southwest in 2019 in the presidential election. It still never changes anything. APC STILL WON THE ELECTION. BUHARI WON.

So when you take all this into consideration, analyse it without religious sentiment or hatred for any candidate. IT DOESN'T CHANGES ANYTHING.

general111:
before now, peter obi's stronghold was on social media, now he is taking over atiku's stronghold...
E go shock una..

Dapson73:
Even an Atikulated Reno knows that Asiwaju is the next president of Nigeria while Obituaries keep living in their delusions.



Congrats to Asiwaju in advance.

Abdul4trust1:
you probably do not understand Nigerians voting pattern that is why you believed obi will win.
Let me state emphatically that obi don't have the number to winning this coming election.
Obi Is a spoiler for Atiku.

If I may ask, which states obi's votes will come from?
No insult please, I just want us to carry out objective analysis.

general111:
I remember vividly that this was how buhari started.
It started out as a social media thing, where people began to support buhari and throw shades at jonathan..
Who would have thought that buhari will defeat a sitting president in nigeria..
Looking at the way things are going now, peter Obi will be announced as president before 8am the next day....
To ignore peter obi is foolishness

Scribx:

You lost me when you said nothing has changed. Even BAT wouldn't be that confident. You seem to be confusing 'dissatisfaction' (2019) with desperation born out of frustration (2023). Even the northern votes won't go the normal way. Let me just let you in on a secret, there will be more apathy in Northern Nigeria than in any part of the country. Mark this post.
It will shock you. February isn't far away.

Rhetorics aside, the only thing that can stop
a landslide victory for AA is PO. The youths are pushing against a gradient, but the old order is very much in place. It will take a miracle for PO to win, but he will surely upset the balance.

femicyrus:

You deliberately forgot to add that tinubu helped him after 3 failed attempts

future001:


Nonsense! If Atiku cannot secure his northern votes and depending on Obi’s Southern block to win then he should go and rest and not deserving of the contest.

Anyway in reality, Kwankwaso, Tinubu and Atiku will fight for and share the NE and NW votes, while Obi will get a good share of the SW and NC votes while securing SS and SE.

In all these permutations, your judgement is as good as mine. Obi is ahead of the other candidates while Tinubu’s chances are slim given that Atiku and Kwankwaso are chipping away his Northern votes.

That’s why there is so much panic in their camps. It appears all the attacks from APC and PDP are directed towards Obi.

In any case, let the best man win and undoubtedly today, Obi is by miles the best man for the job.

Peterobiisathie:


https://mobile.twitter.com/renoomokri/status/1576254573572153344

general111:
..
Nice...
I honestly think peter obi has already captured all the southern states, including south west, anf also the middle belt region...
So he needs at 25% votes from the northern states to become president..
What do you think?

general111:
I remember vividly that this was how buhari started.
It started out as a social media thing, where people began to support buhari and throw shades at jonathan..
Who would have thought that buhari will defeat a sitting president in nigeria..
Looking at the way things are going now, peter Obi will be announced as president before 8am the next day....
To ignore peter obi is foolishness

Peterobiisathie:


https://mobile.twitter.com/renoomokri/status/1576254573572153344

emerged01:

He couldnt hide the truth. He knows that his once atikulated social media warriors have dumped PDP for LP. It is really a minus for PDP.
Now APC is happy having two oppositions instead of one strong opposition.

Abdul4trust1:
lol, Obi can only win in the East. Are you aware PDP and APC still have the dominance followers far far more than labour party? Are you aware people vote along ethnic, and religion lines? And the worst of it is the stomach infrastructure?
Are you aware that structure is paramount to winning election in Nigeria?

Are you aware Buhari won 12 states in the north in 2011 election yet he couldn't defeat GEJ?

naijapips04:


this your thinking is one kind walahi.

lhordspy:


You people keep mentioning the youth? Who are the youth? ... You mean this same social media 2millionn march rally youth.?


Then you are very delusional. Me saying half of them dont have PVCs will seems stale already. Have said it several time

But sir, i guess you are part of the youth too? Right.

Do you vote APC 2019, no i guess... Neither did i. And APC won.

Where were the youth? Funnily you will say they are getting involve now. But how? The number of newly registered voters are just 1m+. Does that makes a different.

Lets look this unblindly, outside hatred and sentiment. Tinubu may not win, but APC will win convincingly.. You can screenshot this with the date. Today is October 1, 2022. Time: 10-50.


Shalom. See you 2023

naijapips04:


The only reason APC might win is Peter Obi. There would be voter empathy in the North for Atiku. Buhari did not perform. APC would get votes but nothing close to the numbers Buhari usually get. If not Obi, Atiku would have compensated with traditional and outlining PDP votes. Obi is messing up that balance.

Nwodosis:
Is this how to campaign for Atiku, you better work harder before they will remove the meal that they are giving you from your mouth.

lhordspy:
Very true... It is more like Obi and Atiku fighting for their already 2019 joint votes. Tinubu is not affected a bit.

The number of new votes or should i say voters that is adding to the 2019 own .. Is just 1m+ newly registered voters, after INEC screened the double registration out.

Even if the 1m+ people are to vote for obi, which is practically impossible, add it to the number of Atiku/obi votes in 2019(which is impossible because Atiku already have the northern voters in his bag) ... It wont be enough to even win an election.

Incase you dont understand what am trying to say. Even if you join Obi votes presently + Atiku's vote + the 1m newly registered voters, it isnt still enough to defeat a certain Tinubu APC if going by the Last general election.

Why am refferring to the last general elections is because nothing changes, nothing have change. Except the rallies and supposedly '2million' match which we witness almost every seconds.

The same people engaging in rallies or supporting obi, never voted for APC 2019.

The same set of people feeling marginalised on religious bases, because of the muslim-muslim ticket will never vote for APC in 2019 too.

The same christian bodies antagonising muslim muslim ticket, Never supported Buhari 2019 also.

The same Afenifere, never supported APC 2019

The same South East, South south.. Are traditionally PDP voters, their votes never changes the outcome of 2019.

Infact some of the muslims voted Atiku/obi 2019, but this time arround with the present political situation where the campaign as been turned into religious one, religous sentiments have found it way in Nigeria politics now, those votes are going to APC this time.

Undecided voters in 2019 like me, who voted for Atiku/obi will never ever vote for any of them this time, why? Because of the aggressive way of the obidients followers. I know so many of us here that are on that line or should i say clinging to that excuse.

The south-west voted overwhelming for Atiku/obi 2019, not because of the love for Atiku or Obi but because we felt the pain of the failed First tenure of buhari then.. Even lagos was almost lost by APC even with Tinubu.
I feel my analysis is right here because those states lost by APC 2019 in southwest, was won by same APC governors during the governorship election except Oyo state which was narrowly lost.
Now, coming to 2023, i feels a tribal sentiment will play major role here, APC will win massively in south west. But what if APC lost, they lost Overall in the southwest in 2019 in the presidential election. It still never changes anything. APC STILL WON THE ELECTION. BUHARI WON.

So when you take all this into consideration, analyse it without religious sentiment or hatred for any candidate. IT DOESN'T CHANGES ANYTHING. Infact the antagonism. of the Buhari candidature we witness in 2019, was far far more than the Tinubu candidature upset we are witness now. Because the anger of Buhari's first tenure which was marred by gross incompetency, insecurities upset alot of people and it cut across all regions. Be it yoruba, hausa,igbo, egede, idoma, ebira... Just name it.. People were angry with his first tenure.
And after the election? I think we all know what happened - Buhari won again.

Some people are saying, the youth, the youth!. Do they PVc's? Alright fine, someone also came out to say they registered because of Obi this year.
Then they didnt turn out massively like we are been deceivedto believe, the number of newly registered voters justify my point. Just 1m+ (which am sure the youth cant have more than 50% of 1m+)

So in my opinion, it takes more more than this childish rallies, photoshopping Tinubu's picture in an irritating manner, or throwing of insult and jabs. We, when i mean we, i mean i included engage in all this for Atiku/obi 2019, Buhari still won.


By simple logic and permutation and the little knowledge i have about politics, TINUBU may not win next year general election, but APC WILL DEFINITELY WIN. And it will be by landslide JUST LIKE 2019.
BECAUSE NOTHING HAS CHANGED EXCEPT THAT OBI AND ATIKU ARE NOW SHARING THEIR VOTES.

lhordspy:



Yes buhari won, but the structure is still there. Reason why tinubu isnt botheres by engaging in cheap rally or march. He is rallying those with the structure.

Just few minutes ago, he appointed mai buna governor of yobe as his special adviser. Yobe has over 3m+ voters..

Come down to reality sir.
Election is not by rally. It is strategy and tinubu is capitalising on the amateur childish approach the obi campaigner are exhibiting.

Tinubu is going for buhari's structure one by one.

Urheadmaster:
I've not seen any Tinubu supporter that is normal.

Is as if they only reason through their 'Anus' like these man called Reno .

MeineMutter:


That's what the ragamuffins don't know. Dem go chop am wotowoto from APC's hands. Did they see any serious OBESE/DAFTY rally in Northern states where winning votes come? Can they show us Obi rally in Niger, Kogi, Kebbi, Kaduna, Zamfara, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Borno, Yobe, Katsina? What of core South-west states?

I do not say APC will perform at all when they win power but "an elephant's head is too much a big load for a toddler to carry/" OBI and his followers are learner politicians/voters where Tinubu and his goons are. The same thing from PDP - they are masters. Can't we see the symbol "L" in everything they do? you declared for presidency of a complexed country called Nigeria within 8 months to election and you expect to cause chaos and win with it? No networking, no powerful friends and cronies across Nigeria. You can't lobby, you cant influence, you dont have the money bags etc like your competitors in APC and PDP. Ha!
Even his deputy called YOUSEEFULL/DAFTY, who does he know in the North, despite the fact that he is from the North? He is an accidental VP. He never dreamt it. He is not a political play maker. He just joined the bandwagon and praying things sail through for them to win. He knows deep down in him that he and his Pandora Obistackle are feather-weighted.

Had it been that HOERRIBLEY had crossed party since early 2021 and showed his interest in becoming president, probably southerners would have registered more and he would have stood a chance to get more sympathy votes from shallow-minded religious bigots who cry as if it is religious that would take Nigeria out of the deepest mess it is, of which he would still not win because it is a game of numbers. The north has the highest under-age voters in Nigeria than any other region and INEC will allow them to vote because they will claim they are of voting age. Where is the machine to now detect their ages? They claim they are malnourished and INEC allowed them to register.

By the time proper campaign starts, all what the SE and Kanu, in particular, said about the North and Buhari would be used to vote against Obistackle. The Unknown Gunmen issue is also there for LP to contend with in the SE. Why do we think Atiku is begging Wike? One of the reasons is because e no too pure for am for SE like before so im want see how e fit capture SS join other votes im go see because PIT ORBY don neutralize im chance.

I just dey here dey look our learned colleagues who feel it is time for HOBEAST. Honestly, it is not. Our Politics in Nigeria is deeper than how most youths see it.

jamesversion:


As far as APC is concerned, Buhari is the only structure that wins Presidential elections. Factually.

Time shall tell. I'm not voting for anyone. Let those who want to vote, vote.

GeneralOjukwu:


Peter Obi is Atiku's Girlfriend.

Nnamdi Kanu called Peter Obi a gay... Atiku is rumoured as a homo...with Obi's effeminate voice, put 2 + 2 together.

I can bet anything that he will fold for Atiku.
.