Theflint1:
Lol...a poll of less than 50 persons and of a certain demographic? Besides, the person that conducted the poll is partisan so there's that to consider.

Theflint1:
Hehehehe...very possible.

Theflint1:
Hehehehe...very possible.

raumdeuter:


Go back historically in 2019

Borno a core IDP state was the state that gave the highest percentage vote to any candidate when it delivered 90% vote to Buhari
Followed by Yobe with 89% to Buhari

Not even Katsina his home state delivered that percentage to Buhari

My friend a PDP politician in one of the SW states was the one who exposed me to it when Tinubu was still debating on who to pick and I was saying he might pick Dogara, He said unless Tinubu is foolish would he ignore Shetimma or Zulum from a State like Borno

Theflint1:
Fair enough, just think that CAN/Christian factor might spring a surprise. Also, consider most state capitals/cities are spread across 40% of the LGAs in each state.

In Kaduna South for example, when APC released their campaign committee, there was not one person from Kaduna South.

OasisX:


Even anti Muslim/Muslim Ticket Crusaders know this! They simply want BAT to pick Dogara so he can lule disgracefully in the North.

raumdeuter:


Its like Chelsea fans urging Man utd to start Maguire

raumdeuter:


Ask Segedinho he will tell you how they run elections

The Capital is where eyes are, So you will all fight for it fairly but both parties will hold some interior 4 LGA where you will cook properly and release the results later often time last results to be released

Lets use Lagos as an example. In Eti Osa, Ikeja would will fight fairly, you will go tackle your opponent on their turf in Amuwo to reduce the number they are cooking.

Now you will go to Epe or Alimosho or Badagry places where your twitter no go reach that is where you bring the well cooked votes late into the night

In Osun last election for example PDP cooking was in Ede, APC was in Boripe. The cooking APC expected in Ife disappointed and wasn't enough to counter what PDP brought in Ede. That Ede is now looking like they overdid the cooking and might get them in INEC trouble

OasisX:




You honestly believe he has a shot in 2023? LMFAO

After BAT, it goes back to North.... your guess is as good as mine.

WhoDeyHause:

Tinubu will win. .

WhoDeyHause:
Tinubu will win. .

raumdeuter:


Ask Segedinho he will tell you how they run elections

The Capital is where eyes are, So you will all fight for it fairly but both parties will hold some interior 4 LGA where you will cook properly and release the results later often time last results to be released

Lets use Lagos as an example. In Eti Osa, Ikeja would will fight fairly, you will go tackle your opponent on their turf in Amuwo to reduce the number they are cooking.

Now you will go to Epe or Alimosho or Badagry places where your twitter no go reach that is where you bring the well cooked votes late into the night

In Osun last election for example PDP cooking was in Ede, APC was in Boripe. The cooking APC expected in Ife disappointed and wasn't enough to counter what PDP brought in Ede. That Ede is now looking like they overdid the cooking and might get them in INEC trouble

OasisX:


I understand your scepticism but APC have solid, established structures in the North already. The projection is based on states under each party control in the North.

BTW... Mark my word, Kwankwaso gonna collapse his structure with BAT few weeks to the polls. Elections ain't won by rallies on the streets of Benin, Calabr, PH or Lagos, its won at the rural places where only established structures can work in your favour.

Last time Obidients held rally in Osogbo it wasn't felt at other 29 LGs in the State. No one was aware in Ikirun, Ede, Iwo, Ejigbo, Iragbiji and Co.

Forget SM noise, PO Ambition is imPOssible in 2023. He's simply a spoiler, advantageous to APC.

wman:
Like I've been saying for the last few months. If I were Peter Obi, I would focus on the grassroots. I would focus on radio interviews. I would target those Yoruba Iwe Iroyin and BBC Hausa.

Those people are largely ignorant of the Peter Obi movement.

I would do a lot to target the Middle Belt and North Central.

South East is as good as sealed. I would need to expand my core voter base as much as possible.


1 million marches are very important and extremely good for generating offline votes. They do a lot for offline sensitization. Many people hear about the movement for the first time during those marches. They also see and recognize the party logo for the first time.

But 1 million participants in a march isn't equal to 1 million votes.

Less than a third of those that participate in the marches will vote.

Fight like the underdog. Think like the underdog. Leave nothing to chance. Better to be overprepared than underprepared

Theflint1:
Lagos - APC 58%, LP 30%, PDP 12%
Edo - APC 15%, LP 60%, PDP 25%
Bayelsa - APC 10%, LP 30%, PDP 60%
Rivers - APC 12%, LP 60%, PDP 28%
Delta - APC 9%, LP 40%, PDP 41%
C/Rivers- APC 8%, LP 58%, PDP 34%
A/Ibom - APC 13%, LP 33%, PDP 54%
S/East - APC 9%, LP 71%, PDP 20%
Abuja - APC 25%, LP 35%, PDP 40%

Other North Central States, can't say precisely, but expect LP to get 25% in most, APC will win some, PDP will win some, don't see LP winning any.

I can't speak much on N/E and N/W states, but I expect Atiku to make a good showing in most. APC will do well too, but vote sharing go plenty. Other than Kano, don't see NNPP winning any other state, and it won't be by much. NNPP would get votes in other Northern states sha.

South West states other than Lagos, APC will get up to 60% on average, LP and PDP go get like 15% and 25% on average, respectively.

PDP will easily get 24/36.

larride:


APC will get more than what you have given them in Edo and Cross River and you are really overrating LP in the SS. How will APC that has structure and even won Bayelsa Governorship election get 10% and LP will get 30%? Haba

LP will get 40% in Delta that has Okowa as Governor and the Vice Presidential candidate of PDP? Haba

No opposition candidate will get 25% in the SW apart from Lagos.

In the NC, LP wont get 25% in Kwara, Niger and Nassarawa.

larride:


APC will get more than what you have given them in Edo and Cross River and you are really overrating LP in the SS. How will APC that has structure and even won Bayelsa Governorship election get 10% and LP will get 30%? Haba

LP will get 40% in Delta that has Okowa as Governor and the Vice Presidential candidate of PDP? Haba

No opposition candidate will get 25% in the SW apart from Lagos.

In the NC, LP wont get 25% in Kwara, Niger and Nassarawa.

Theflint1:
https://twitter.com/GRVLagosMedia/status/1577020861449900032?t=i1kF_TTk0KlWdb2qVnqIDQ&s=19

@

wman:


PDP can get 25% in Oyo and Ekiti

izzou:


That is the place BlueRayDick said touts used to sit and drink .

Does that look like a place where people can attack someone and even pour fuel to burn?

I Don let the matter rest sha. Maybe na true

BlueRayDick:


When I'm chanced, I will take pictures of the exact place I'm referring to and post it here.

izzou:


That is the place BlueRayDick said touts used to sit and drink .

Does that look like a place where people can attack someone and even pour fuel to burn?

I Don let the matter rest sha. Maybe na true

GloriousGbola:


i first read this as " That is the place BlueRayDick and touts used to sit and drink"

larride:


APC will get more than what you have given them in Edo and Cross River and you are really overrating LP in the SS. How will APC that has structure and even won Bayelsa Governorship election get 10% and LP will get 30%? Haba

LP will get 40% in Delta that has Okowa as Governor and the Vice Presidential candidate of PDP? Haba

No opposition candidate will get 25% in the SW apart from Lagos.

In the NC, LP wont get 25% in Kwara, Niger and Nassarawa.

chrisooblog:
I have a small advice for the Obi movement. I presume your camp is made up of very smart, urbane and modern individuals. Why can't the brilliant experts amongst you come up with alternative ideas, plans and manifestos for free and give to your candidate which he will use in his interviews and debates?

This will help to make him look like someone offering concrete solutions to Nigeria's problem. The Obidient movements projects itself as young and intelligent, well this is where you can put your money where your mouth is. Choose geniuses amongst yourselves to volunteer and provide concrete long term and short term solutions.

This in my opinion will stand you out for your candidate rather than engaging in online fights that will not translate to any real votes, but only strengthen the resolve of your opponents.

Theflint1:
Lagos - APC 58%, LP 30%, PDP 12%
Edo - APC 15%, LP 60%, PDP 25%
Bayelsa - APC 10%, LP 30%, PDP 60%
Rivers - APC 12%, LP 60%, PDP 28%
Delta - APC 9%, LP 40%, PDP 41%
C/Rivers- APC 8%, LP 58%, PDP 34%
A/Ibom - APC 13%, LP 33%, PDP 54%
S/East - APC 9%, LP 71%, PDP 20%
Abuja - APC 25%, LP 35%, PDP 40%

Other North Central States, can't say precisely, but expect LP to get 25% in most, APC will win some, PDP will win some, don't see LP winning any.

I can't speak much on N/E and N/W states, but I expect Atiku to make a good showing in most. APC will do well too, but vote sharing go plenty. Other than Kano, don't see NNPP winning any other state, and it won't be by much. NNPP would get votes in other Northern states sha.

South West states other than Lagos, APC will get up to 60% on average, LP and PDP go get like 15% and 25% on average, respectively.

PDP will easily get 24/36.

patrickmuf:
Cross River? Ayade will be on the ballot for Senate (Cross River North) as will Jude Ngaji for House of Reps (Ogoja/Yala Fed Constituency) and Legor Idagor for reps representing Obanliku/Obudu/Bekwara Fed Constituency...Legor is going for his third tenure while Jude is hoping to start his own 4 years after being elected into the HoR to complete Jarigbe's tenure...The above is for Cross River North...

In the Central Sen. district, the current speaker of the Cross River HoA is flying the flag of the APC for the senatorial race...

In Cross River South, you have the popular Sen. Prince Otu as the Governorship candidate of the APC...

In Cross River, Donald Duke from the South did 8 years then Liyel from the Central did 8 years and Ayade is on the verge of completing 8 years for the North. Power is supposed to return to the South is the unwritten principle of rotation of power is to be followed but the PDp via the influence of Wike gave the ticket to a man from the Central Senatorial district, Sen. Sandy Onor who is Wike’s friend against other contestants from the South including Liyel's choice, Sen.Gershom Bassey...

The APC is not loved in Cross River but the choices of the PDP have made the APC gain serious momentum...

Now tell me, how will a party that will have 2 HoRs member on the ballot and an incumbent Governor vying for Senate in just one senatorial district pull just 8% of votes?

I don't want to talk about Cross River Central and Cross River South Senatorial district...No dey talk wetin you no know...

larride:


APC will get more than what you have given them in Edo and Cross River and you are really overrating LP in the SS. How will APC that has structure and even won Bayelsa Governorship election get 10% and LP will get 30%? Haba

LP will get 40% in Delta that has Okowa as Governor and the Vice Presidential candidate of PDP? Haba

No opposition candidate will get 25% in the SW apart from Lagos.

In the NC, LP wont get 25% in Kwara, Niger and Nassarawa.