atiku does not even need wike to win, PDP will get 25/35% votes in rivers state. But we all know wike cant and won't work for any other party, he is just using all this drama to negotiate something for himself, just like saying i have thing power, if you want it, give me something back in return. Atiku will sort him out
buhari didn't win rivers state but yet he won the election.

atiku has to make sure he gets enough or majority of his northern votes, that is where the main catch his, southwest is very very liberal, go through all our elections, PDP usually gets around 40% of votes in the southwest, including Lagos and with obi massive support, APC support base in Lagos and the southwest may be pruned down to about 45/50% . in Ekiti state in 2019, APC had 219k PDP had 154k, in Lagos state APC had 580k, PDP had 448k, and let's take note that this was without a third force like peter obi o.

there is no way the north will leave Atiku and give tinubu bloc votes. the only thing that can save apc now is to drop tinubu and field another strong northerner. votes from the southwest never wins elections, it is the massive rigging and votes from the north that has always won elections. votes from kano alone can nullify any victory in Lagos and any 2 states in the southwest. kano gave APC 1.4m votes and PDP had just391k , katsina gave apc 1.3m votes and pdp got 300k

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

All the permutations favours Obi, except you guys want to live in denial

Obi will win SE,SS and slim win in North central
Tinubu will win SW but it will not be a wide magin
Atiku will win NE
NW will not see a clear winner as vote will slit between Atiku, Tinubu,Kwankaso, Obi will not be left out too.

With SE, SS and NC in the bag for Obi, whatever happen in NW between Atiku and Tinubu is not consequential.

Peter Obi is your President.

Beer palour analysis

Atiku would be lucky to get 50k votes... the odds are not in his favour

The truth is that ultimately Atiku will win most undecided voters. For these reasons:

1. Many Obidient's lousy behaviour

2. Perception of Atiku as a more seasoned politician.

Then the simple fact that 60% of obedients outside the south east may not have a pvc.

These three men are identical to our current and past leaders in every way. In fact, they contributed to some of the hardships Nigerians are experiencing right now.

Also, none of them is scandal free.

If you believe that Nigerians would have a better government and nation under the rule of any of these persons, you are nothing more than a hypocrite.

FatherOfJesus:
the difference is the pattern of voting. Northeast and northwest will always vote a northerner irrespective of ruling party, election figures always proves so, they have herd mentality. Tinubu cannot beat Atiku there Go verify

Southsouth always vote PDP, go verify

This is a lie please. They voted Abiola and he even defeated Bashir Tofa in his home state Kano.

I love reading analysis of lunatics especially of those of Igbo descendants

SIRTee15:


Neither Obasanjo nor Jonathan won the core northern states when they contested against a northerner- Buhari.
You want to know how they won? They swept the whole southern region and won majority votes in the middle belt. They never won northeast or northwest.

This proves u don't actually need the core north to win election as a southern presidential candidate. What u need is a tight grip on the south and perform very well in the north central, a region that doesn't have the herd mentality of the core northern states.

For the first time we have southern candidates esp Tinubu who has no hope of sweeping the southern region, will perform poorly in middlebelt but hopes northeast and northwest votes will make him president.
Tinubu will indeed have conjured the greatest abracadabra ever known if he can win next year election.

Obi would have had a better chance if he's running under a main party, but the labour party structure is quite weak nationwide. He will likely perform poorly in the southwest, struggle in middlebelt and crash in the core north.
This election is for Atiku to win if he knows what he's doing.

FatherOfJesus:
the difference is the pattern of voting. Northeast and northwest will always vote a northerner irrespective of ruling party, election figures always proves so, they have herd mentality. Tinubu cannot beat Atiku there Go verify

Southsouth always vote PDP, go verify

Well...for the north your are totally right.
No Southerner has ever won the NE & NW.
The statement above shows it will be very difficult to win Atiku in the north, talkless of collecting bloc votes. Tinubu has been deceived. I knew all these before now. And I warned people about it. But people said I don't know politics. But now that elections has started, Tinubu is no where to be found. He has seen the handwriting on the wall. He can't win the elections hence, he is trying to restrategise his game plan.
Lol.......God is truly creating confusion in the camp of the enemies.

FatherOfJesus:
the difference is the pattern of voting. Northeast and northwest will always vote a northerner irrespective of ruling party, election figures always proves so, they have herd mentality. Tinubu cannot beat Atiku there Go verify

Southsouth always vote PDP, go verify

You are a clown and a paid one with high weed. .

Southsouth and southeast are voting for LP. .

Southwest will be divided. . Most Muslims will vote APC while Christians will vote LP and some others will consider Atiku.

North will be won majorly by Atiku. . Yes. . But Kwankwanso, Obi and Tinubu will have their equal share there. .

Atiku and PDP don't really have a reputation and are in disorder right now. . So your opinion is not valid.

MKO is not a Nigerian na Biafran

Workch:
Obasanjo and Jonathan didn’t win a core northerner in core north

Go and verify

Safyqueen:


This is a lie please. They voted Abiola and he even defeated Bashir Tofa in his home state Kano.

It's TRUE. Go and check elections since 1999
No southerner has ever won the the core north before

Atiku Abubakar the peoples choice 2023.

Vote wisely...
Vote Atiku Abubakar for president 2023.

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

same here.. I think Atiku stand a higher chance. But Obi have my vote.. the election is between Obi and Atiku, Tinubu won't have any bulk vote . All those APC forget Buhari is not the one contesting. I work with core northerners, I go to their villages as an NGO worker .I talk with them daily during my field work in different parts of the north, Have not see any single one supporting Tinubu/Obi, all are Atikulated.. I wish Obi all the best. There are many Christians in the North supporting him.

Workch:
i am obidient, I am just being realistic

Obidient my foot. Please you are not obidient because we dont have such people in our mist. Already feeling defeat when fight hasn't even start. You are on ur own. Peter Obi is winning the election. Period.

Atiku Abubakar the peoples choice 2023

Vote wisely...
Vote Atiku Abubakar for president 2023.

tiger28:
I dont understand how many ppl like the OP think that Northerners cannot vote for a Southern President..........

If that is the case, then can someone explain

HOW OBJ won TWO terms?

HOW Jonathan won as well?

Strong Party structure and a viable Candidate that is NOT Just a regional Candidate are all it takes pls!

In 1999, it was 2 yorubas on the ticket. Obj won.

In 2003, NW and NE went for Buhari..obj won because he managed to win the middle belt

Same for Jona

You need to check your mendula obliganta if it's functioning properly

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

I am with you
Atiku is the favourite
But I will still vote wisely

ogatboy:
Your analysis fail to factor in the popularity of kwankwaso in the NC so it is flawed. Atiku cannot win any zone outside the NE and NW.

if atiku can win north west and north east its game over for other candidates only atiku is sure of at least 25 to 30 from every regions

Burruchaga71:
Those ppl will collect your money and vote for their choice . 2023 is not 2015.

Have you ever been to polling units before?

I am asking because you think they are daft to just give money without ensuring you vote for them. I am sorry it doesn't work that way, they usually have agents in markets leaders, articians leaders, youths leaders, women leaders, party members, etc that will collate the people names and promise them the money. The money is shows to them by leaders of the groups but they can't collect it until result are announced. All the leaders will be monitoring your movements at polling center to ensure non of their people talk to or collected money from other parties agents.

Another style they use is that, before they give you money, you must stylishly show your tump printed slip to a party agent sitting at strategy place at the poll. They also used this second method on ordinary people they casually meet on election day.

That is why I always laughed at people posting unrealistic permutations. Nigerians are too broke to reject 5k/10k for a vote that they feel amount to nothing to them. The party with solid structure and fund will eventually win next year election.

FatherOfJesus:
If he can address the Wike camp, it will take God to stop him.

The truth is that, Tinubu cannot beat Atiku in northwest and northeast and Peter Obi will not do well there. Atiku is going to comfortably win these regions. Forget about the APC structure, A Yoruba man cannot beat a core northerner here, it’s not possible. These parts of the country has herd mentality, last figures proves that. It’s a winner takes all region and no splitting, especially in the northwest

Tinubu will not win much outside of southwest, kogi and Kwara. Tinubu will not win a single local government in southeast or south south. The southsouth has strong PDP structure and Its between Atiku and Peter obi.

In the Middle belt, Tinubu will perform well in kwara and kogi, Atiku will do well in Benue, nassarawa and Niger. Obi will do well in Abuja

In southeast, Obi will win while Atiku will be second. Tinubu May not win a polling unit here.

All the predictive analysis points to Atiku emerging victorious without any sentiments here.

So, you're saying shettima won't give tinubu any advantage?

RMK can only sweep votes in KANO and JIGAWA. He'll be 1st while Atiku will be second. But that doesn't scare Atiku because he knows he'll get most of the votes from the votes northeast (Adamawa, Gombe, Taraba and Bauchi) i didn't include Borno because he won't get much from there but will get a fair share. Let's not talk about the core north (Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna etc), these are states where BAT and PO won't fly and these are states that are sure to give Atiku above 500,000 votes. Whether we like it or not PDP will definitely get nothing less than 1000 votes from other states. Afterall, the VP is from the south. The earlier we realize that Politics in Nigeria can't fly without a northerner in it the better for us. All of the three major parties (LP, APC and PDP) have a northerner in them. Either as President or VP. This is just my own analysis. But as for me, I'll rather waste my vote on His Excellency PO. That's my choice. So help me God!
But leave RMK out of this. Him own na play lol

SlavaUkraini:
Good Analysis... But

You are forgetting one name..

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso

He is the Game changer for Atiku Abubakar in the North...

As Peter Obi may play Spoiler for Atiku Abubakar in the South,

RMK will surely play Spoiler for Tinubu in the North..

garfield1:


Tinubu can beat atiku in the north,ss,se

lolz.. when election ends.. maybe that's when the south west and south east will settle their issues.. I can bet you the Northerners will support their own. Forget that Muslim Muslim ticket . They want power to remain in the north just like someone of you wants power to come to the East or South West.. bookmark this

highchief1:
what do u mean by a single local govt in south south?dsp will deliver the two ughelli to apc.that’s two local govts.no man born of a woman can with oshiomole local govt.that’s south south.u go just smoke weed finish jump enter online.

Oga the era of anyone "delivering" is over!! If Tinubu is not popular there,DSP will not be able to help him

yemmit90:


Have you ever been to polling units before?

I am asking because you think they are daft to just give money without ensuring you vote for them. I am sorry it doesn't work that way, they usually have agents in markets leaders, articians leaders, youths leaders, women leaders, party members, etc that will collate the people names and promise them the money. The money is shows to them by leaders of the groups but they can't collect it until result are announced. All the leaders will be monitoring your movements at polling center to ensure non of their people talk to or collected money from other parties agents.

Another style they use is that, before they give you money, you must stylishly show your tump printed slip to a party agent sitting at strategy place at the poll. They also used this second method on ordinary people they casually meet on election day.

That is why I always laughed at people posting unrealistic permutations. Nigerians are too broke to reject 5k/10k for a vote that they feel amount to nothing to them. The party with solid structure and fund will eventually win next year election.

This one wey you talk strong o

Nigeria did not start from 1999 n no southern Muslim ever contested before

JoeNL22:

It's TRUE. Go and check elections since 1999
No southerner has ever won the the core north before

Sorry , Peter Obi all the way✅

Big joke! ... Like OP said, the Northerners have the "herd mentality"..... Wherever the shepherd goes, the gerd is sure to follow. Let's watch as it plays out sha.

Workch:
lol, you are joking right?

Safe this post

Sholaadey:


Lol, you’re irrational to think the end sars protest was a trouble fomented on the society and was started by the igbos. By the way, I’m a yoruba guy and my support is for Obi.

As for me, regardless of any party,

it wasn't actually

End SARS was a generally accepted protest supported by all well meaning Nigerians including myself until ipob elements hijacked it and turned it to a weapon against Lagos and by extension, the Yorubas.

But as bonafide Yoruba man, not a bastard who doesn't know road to his house, we shall never allow such to happen again.

Those doubting the OP should understudy the election result of 2011, you will see that the United south gave Jonathan the power. Now the south is divided, it will only take God's grace for a southern to win 2023