Workch:
1. Ever-confidence and over-reliance on northern APC structure: This is a wrong move as he thinks he has what it takes to defeat two northerners in the north, which is most likely not going to happen.
He doesn’t have the Charisma to beat Atiku on his turf. He’s not Abiola.
Kwankwaso will get more votes in Kano than Tinubu.

2. Deliberate underestimation of the relevance of southeast and southsouth:
While southeast may have the smallest voters figure, but be rest assured that this region gives bloc votes and because of this, they are very strategic to whoever gets their Favour (atleast about 2-4million votes). That’s a lot to win an election for someone who won’t win the north
Southsouth cannot be underestimated as well, they give bloc votes as well, even more than southeast.
This means that whatever votes Tinubu thinks he can get in southwest will be easily watered down with these two region.

3. Over-reliance of southwest: Southwest has an historical record for voters apathy, even aside that, southwest is the most metropolitan region, it’s hard to win here with above 70% even as an indigene.

4. Self-entitlement: he thinks it’s his birthright and ignores everyone who thinks they deserve to hear what he has to offer. He doesn’t respect invitations to speak. Too proud for so many people.

5. Health: he’s sick and people don’t want a health Tourist as president.

6. Godfatherism: a lot of people don’t admire Tinubu because of this. EVen many Yorubas are not confortable with having a proud godfather who will always not listen to them hence he cannot get all Yoruba votes.

7. Muslim-Muslim ticket: this will ensure that he loses votes of northern Christians, some southwest Christians and most votes in southeast and southsouth. Hence making it difficult for him to nullify the defeat atiku will give him in the north.


Add yours

KillSars:
1. He doesn't have charisma to beat atiku on his turf...
Lolzz, atiku is not even meant to be on the ballot, why tinubu go come dey stress himself sey hin wan beat am. If the whole north folds for atiku, dem no go vote am, all na tactics to chop hin money, if dem vote am, they know the consequence wey fit xup. The real options are from the south, they are free to choose anyone wey dem like. And about tinubu reliance on his kinsmen, isn't it obvious all candidate rely on their kinsmen?

2. No be today, wey SS and SE dey drop block vote of over 80%, with the block vote, wetin dey always xup after, it's not about underestimating diz region, if I know the voting pattern of a particular region and I know sey e go hard for it to work in my favour, I go channel my energy to somewhere else, u can't win all, u win some, u loose some.

3. Are u sure tinubu dey over rely on south western vote, u gats check very well, SW too dey liberal, dem no send anybody papa and tinubu knows diz.

4. Where the entitlement dey, coz he said na hin turn to become his party flagbearer, where the lie dey, he folds his party just to ensure a ruling party is subdued, and u think he should keep mute in his own party..
He doesn't respect invitation to speak, lolzzz... to come speak wetin u neva hear before, right? That energy can be channeled to something more productive, and BTW who in his right frame of mind still believes in words from mouth diz days sef? Everybody just dey lie, as for me, I believe so much in what I see, no time to dey let my ears go through unnecessary stress... eyes is not just lamp of the body for no reason... tinubu track record are there for everybody to see it, if hin like make hin turn kevin hart and Eddie Murphy combine, pesin wey go vote am go vote am, pesin wey no go vote am, no go vote am...

5. Since u have his medical report to prove diz, kindly show it to us, doctor.

6. godfather u call it, I call it mentorship, people wey talk sey follow who no road, why u think sey dem talk am, hate him or like him, over 30years now, he has earned it, he can only suggest, it's left for people to okay it...

7. M-M ticket sound so weird to people because tinubu is coming out from from a liberal region to govern majority of region wey no dey liberal, that is what I see, u go first become Nigerian before dem go hang one religion for ur neck after 7days from birth, that's how fvcked up everybody is right now, no problem for my side, so far his vice is a Nigerian, I no get issue with the ticket combo...

Why tinubu will win, no hidden strategy, no reliance, no confidence of whatsoever, the answer is he knows when to contest, 15years after being the governor of his state, he dey observe wetin wan sup, if u think he is coming out now to come and loose, think am twice

Ttalk:
I've never seen a tribe as hateful as you lot.

Why do you relish in other people's failure?

Why do you thrive to make others lose instead of making yourself win?

Why do you choose the downfall of Tinubu when that will not translate to Obi's win?

Why is it too difficult for you to come up with a convincing argument on how your candidate can win but put all your energy into how Tinubu will fail?

Is it only Tinubu that is the threat to Obi's success when we have Atiku that is directly a threat to Obi because both candidates will share from the same poll of voters?

The way Igbo are going about this campaign will have a repercussion.

Must you ruin all your chances today as if there won't be tomorrow?

It is a bastard Yoruba that will read all this nonsense you lots are daily shunning on Nairaland and still vote for your candidate. You have completely eroded any sympathy another region may have for your best candidate because of a cheer-blocked head and lack of common sense and simple logic.

I spit on this useless topic. Shioor

yemmit90:
@op, the earlier you understand that Tinubu is the most brilliant politician ever emerged from Nigeria politics, the better for you. If Awo, Zik, Abiola and other first and second Republic politicians get the same level of tactics and intelligent, they would've became president especially Awo UPN in 1976 general election.

If not that some Nigerians are sturbon and always like to write unrealistic jagons about politics, they should not have underestimated this man ever again after APC primary election.

Tinubu is only politician who can say " ELO FOKAN BALE" ( go and let your mind be at rest) amidst serious gang up from his most trusted allies and political sons and still won by wide margin.

Though anything can happen in 2023 election but don't ever underestimate Tinubu on ballot. Northern elites knows that a Northerner after 8 years of Buhari is a recipe for unforseen political turbulence from the South, and they are not ready to face the consequences. They will definitely thread carefully in working for Atiku. PDP would've won easily if Peter Obi is their candidate with all these wave of supports he is currently enjoying.

Workch:
Tinubu is not brilliant, he just has Lagos under his coffers then he uses money from there to pay people like he did during the primaries.

It’s an insult to put Tinubu, awo and zik in the same statement

bender79:
You are still relying on the same reasons OP gave to win the election. Atiku lost the election because he scored lower in northern votes due to the dominance of Buhari but same cannot be said today because there are 3 candidates including yours who will split the votes making other regions significant in guaranteeing victory.

yemmit90:
@op, the earlier you understand that Tinubu is the most brilliant politician ever emerged from Nigeria politics, the better for you. If Awo, Zik, Abiola and other first and second Republic politicians get the same level of tactics and intelligent, they would've became president especially Awo UPN in 1976 general election.

If not that some Nigerians are sturbon and always like to write unrealistic jagons about politics, they should not have underestimated this man ever again after APC primary election.

Tinubu is only politician who can say " ELO FOKAN BALE" ( go and let your mind be at rest) amidst serious gang up from his most trusted allies and political sons and still won by wide margin.

Though anything can happen in 2023 election but don't ever underestimate Tinubu on ballot. Northern elites knows that a Northerner after 8 years of Buhari is a recipe for unforseen political turbulence from the South, and they are not ready to face the consequences. They will definitely thread carefully in working for Atiku. PDP would've won easily if Peter Obi is their candidate with all these wave of supports he is currently enjoying.

KillSars:
1. He doesn't have charisma to beat atiku on his turf...
Lolzz, atiku is not even meant to be on the ballot, why tinubu go come dey stress himself sey hin wan beat am. If the whole north folds for atiku, dem no go vote am, all na tactics to chop hin money, if dem vote am, they know the consequence wey fit xup. The real options are from the south, they are free to choose anyone wey dem like. And about tinubu reliance on his kinsmen, isn't it obvious all candidate rely on their kinsmen?

2. No be today, wey SS and SE dey drop block vote of over 80%, with the block vote, wetin dey always xup after, it's not about underestimating diz region, if I know the voting pattern of a particular region and I know sey e go hard for it to work in my favour, I go channel my energy to somewhere else, u can't win all, u win some, u loose some.

3. Are u sure tinubu dey over rely on south western vote, u gats check very well, SW too dey liberal, dem no send anybody papa and tinubu knows diz.

4. Where the entitlement dey, coz he said na hin turn to become his party flagbearer, where the lie dey, he folds his party just to ensure a ruling party is subdued, and u think he should keep mute in his own party..
He doesn't respect invitation to speak, lolzzz... to come speak wetin u neva hear before, right? That energy can be channeled to something more productive, and BTW who in his right frame of mind still believes in words from mouth diz days sef? Everybody just dey lie, as for me, I believe so much in what I see, no time to dey let my ears go through unnecessary stress... eyes is not just lamp of the body for no reason... tinubu track record are there for everybody to see it, if hin like make hin turn kevin hart and Eddie Murphy combine, pesin wey go vote am go vote am, pesin wey no go vote am, no go vote am...

5. Since u have his medical report to prove diz, kindly show it to us, doctor.

6. godfather u call it, I call it mentorship, people wey talk sey follow who no road, why u think sey dem talk am, hate him or like him, over 30years now, he has earned it, he can only suggest, it's left for people to okay it...

7. M-M ticket sound so weird to people because tinubu is coming out from from a liberal region to govern majority of region wey no dey liberal, that is what I see, u go first become Nigerian before dem go hang one religion for ur neck after 7days from birth, that's how fvcked up everybody is right now, no problem for my side, so far his vice is a Nigerian, I no get issue with the ticket combo...

Why tinubu will win, no hidden strategy, no reliance, no confidence of whatsoever, the answer is he knows when to contest, 15years after being the governor of his state, he dey observe wetin wan sup, if u think he is coming out now to come and lose, think am twice

Donsheddy:


Something they fail to understand.....
2011 Jonathan lost NW and NE and won the election......

Apc supporters fail to consider that kwankwanso is on the ballot too.....

Splitting northern votes three ways...

Whao I like your analysis.

North West is known for voting there own ...
Which in the question is kwankwanso.....

I expect him to get not less than 30% of total vote cast in the n.w and n.e if he continues with this momentum....

That leaves the remaining 70% to be draged between atiku,obi and tinubu... If obi can get 5% from this pool from the northern christian in this pool ....

You have 65% left.....

Trust me there will be voters aparthy in the north if we are expecting a turn out of About 17 million from those two regions......

Nnpp. 5.1 m
Lp. 850k
Apc and pdp will battle for the remaining 11M.



S.E and S.S has a total voters turn out of About 10m

If labour grabs 70%

From those two regions..

That's about 7 million

Could be more if the. East comes out to vote like they did in 2011....

That's why I believe Kanu release will favour l.p contrary to what people think...

N.C will be the decider in the election.....


If you go to the West removing Lagos state....

The voting strength of the other 5 states is not bigger than the 5 states in the east....
The east comes out top...


Why I said removing Lagos, Lagos votes is mixed, the difference between the winner and the second position won't be much......

Now the question is can apc get up to 80% of vote cast in the other 5 western states assuming there voting strength is about 4million

This is where the Muslim Muslim ticket plays a big roll.....

The answer is no.......

So let's assume Apc gets...

5Million north
3million west.
1.5 million n.c.
And 500k both s.s and s.e combined.

That's 10m total

Then l.p

Gets 7.5millon
S.S and S.E..
N.C 2.5M
West 1.5M
N.E and N.W
1M

That's about

12.5M

And atiku gets 6M north
2M N.C.
1M west.
2M South south and east

That's 11M

Okoroawusa:
That one concern una....


Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the next president of Nigeria

Jajaofokpoko1:
His supporters are very bitter souls,especially those Yoruba Muslims here on nairaland
Very hateful and vile but they complain others hate them


Mark this,Tinubu will fail woefully

Ttalk:


Whao I like your analysis.

The only thing it lacks is a depth knowledge of Nigerian politics. Let me simplify it for you.

Tinubu choosing a Christian deputy would have cost him greatly.

Just name any Christian northerner that would have given Tinubu the vote Shettima would give.

Any northern Christian would have increased APC votes in the north central but not in the South.

Southern Kaduna, Jos, Taraba, and Nas,arawa with some chunks of Christians are likely to be influenced by religion. Let's quantify the figure to be 2m votes.

Now let's look at what the Shetimma factor would bring to the table. Borno and Yobe have estimates of 5 to 6m Kanuri people. At least 4million would vote for Shettima as their son and reduce the loss from North central to 2 million. There are other Muslims scattered all over Nigeria that would prefer the brilliance and record of Shettima as governor to vote for him. From the North west to the North East and some few in north-central, this figure can not be less than 2m. So that cancels the factor of MM that you so much emphasised.
I do not consider MM as a factor in the South because;
1. Religion is not a factor in the SW
2. SE would not vote Tinubu even if he presents Pope as his deputy same goes with SS.

Ttalk:
I've never seen a tribe as hateful as you lot.

Why do you relish in other people's failure?

Why do you thrive to make others lose instead of making yourself win?

Why do you choose the downfall of Tinubu when that will not translate to Obi's win?

Why is it too difficult for you to come up with a convincing argument on how your candidate can win but put all your energy into how Tinubu will fail?

Is it only Tinubu that is the threat to Obi's success when we have Atiku that is directly a threat to Obi because both candidates will share from the same poll of voters?

The way Igbo are going about this campaign will have a repercussion.

Must you ruin all your chances today as if there won't be tomorrow?

It is a bastard Yoruba that will read all this nonsense you lots are daily shunning on Nairaland and still vote for your candidate. You have completely eroded any sympathy another region may have for your best candidate because of a cheer-blocked head and lack of common sense and simple logic.

I spit on this useless topic. Shioor

BluntTheApostle:


Leave them.

Everyone and everything in APC seemed against Tinubu towards the primary.

Osinbajo even got a thunderous applause when his name was called on the D-DAY.

But we all saw how it ended. Even Amaechi beat Osinbajo.

And Tinubu beat them all.

That man is an incomparable political strategist.

Atiku and Obi are learners.

Ttalk:


You said more than this during APC primary campaign

yemmit90:
@op, the earlier you understand that Tinubu is the most brilliant politician ever emerged from Nigeria politics, the better for you. If Awo, Zik, Abiola and other first and second Republic politicians get the same level of tactics and intelligent, they would've became president especially Awo UPN in 1976 general election.

If not that some Nigerians are sturbon and always like to write unrealistic jagons about politics, they should not have underestimated this man ever again after APC primary election.

Tinubu is only politician who can say " ELO FOKAN BALE" ( go and let your mind be at rest) amidst serious gang up from his most trusted allies and political sons and still won by wide margin.

Though anything can happen in 2023 election but don't ever underestimate Tinubu on ballot. Northern elites knows that a Northerner after 8 years of Buhari is a recipe for unforseen political turbulence from the South, and they are not ready to face the consequences. They will definitely thread carefully in working for Atiku. PDP would've won easily if Peter Obi is their candidate with all these wave of supports he is currently enjoying.