At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.

https://saharareporters.com/2022/10/28/peter-obi-unlikely-win-presidential-election-tinubus-presidency-will-increase-social

https://www.nairaland.com/7406409/fitch-predicts-bola-tinubu-win

afrodoc2:


NATO has been providing support with weaponry and intelligence. Russia's military prowess is overrated in terms of quality of equipment and military commanders. They just have population advantage and nukes.

This war has really demystified Russia.

Shey INEC wan dey wind us ni? Be like na them be the Final boss for this election thing wey Nigerians need to face

What are the odds that 8 of the top 10 states with invalid registration are from SS/SE. At least throw in one or two NW/NE states make una sakamanje look a bit believable

A40:
Shey INEC wan dey wind us ni? Be like na them be the Final boss for this election thing wey Nigerians need to face

What are the odds that 8 of the top 10 states with invalid registration are from SS/SE. At least throw in one or two NW/NE states make una sakamanje look a bit believable

My question is, why do we have high numbers of invalid registration across the country? Those % are an indictment on the technical abilities of the INEC officials on ground.

Were the machines faulty? Were they as a result of documentation errors? Were citizens educated and provided good help during registration. This is a problem Nigerians should be talking about because this is technically disenfranchisement of Nigerians.

INEC needs to come out and explain why the numbers are so high. If we have this number of invalidated registration, what can we expect will happen to votes after they have been cast? How many will become invalidated because of documentation/ machine errors?

Please if you don’t understand my thoughts above, ask for clarification before assuming.

^^
Indeed, the 2 million+ invalid registrations may be a deciding factor in both Feb and March contests; because within the last 7 years, some gubernatorial races were decided by 100k or fewer votes, whilst the 2015 presidential election was decided by 3 million votes..

raumdeuter:
At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.

https://saharareporters.com/2022/10/28/peter-obi-unlikely-win-presidential-election-tinubus-presidency-will-increase-social

https://www.nairaland.com/7406409/fitch-predicts-bola-tinubu-win

Also

A40:
This war has really demystified Russia.

When corruption and nepotism meets conservative military leadership. Reminds me of the French Army before the 2nd World War. Big reputation but not really good on the field.

Although to be fair it is not like people expected anything spectacular from the Russians. Since their embarrassing failure in the Soviet-Afghan it has always been about the nukes with them. Now, that was the war that demystified them. What people didn't expect was the resilience of the Ukrainians, although based on their antecedents maybe it shouldn't have been such a huge surprise.

INEC. Disenfranchising Nigerians since 1914.

afrodoc2:


When corruption and nepotism meets conservative military leadership. Reminds me of the French Army before the 2nd World War. Big reputation but not really good on the field.

Although to be fair it is not like people expected anything spectacular from the Russians. Since their embarrassing failure in the Soviet-Afghan it has always been about the nukes with them. Now, that was the war that demystified them. What people didn't expect was the resilience of the Ukrainians, although based on their antecedents maybe it shouldn't have been such a huge surprise.

The way Russia was busy shelling Ukraine at the wake of the war, one would’ve thought Ukraine will be rubbles by now ……It’s surprising they could turn defence straight to counter attacks despite Russia’s supreme firepower .

Initially I thought the Ukraine president was a loudmouth who likes to talk and wouldn’t back his talks up with actions; alas he’s far from it. How he’s been able to keep the ship of his country sailing in the midst of the whole turmoil is something

https://www.nairaland.com/7406270/redesigning-naira-notes-not-aware

Finance minister says her ministry is not aware of Emiefele’s planned redesigning of naira notes

My question is “who gangan is ruling us in this country ?” I don’t ever think I will be saying this , but it seems Abba Kyari was indeed the glue holding the Buhari presidency together . I mean since Abba Kyari died , different component parts of Buhari’s government have been working at cross purposes . The case of ministry of health vs Ministry of communication is still fresh in memory. While ministry of health was issuing advisory for people to avoid crowded areas to limit the spread of COVID-19, the ministry of communications under Pantami was busy issuing ultimatums for people to visit NIN registration centres to get their NIN done ( which will certainly increase the spread of the virus)

PDPGuy:
^^
Indeed, the 2 million+ invalid registrations may be a deciding factor in both Feb and March contests; because within the last 7 years, some gubernatorial races were decided by 100k or fewer votes, whilst the 2015 presidential election was decided by 3 million votes..

The Law, you see where I was heading!!!

How and why do we have 2M plus invalidated registration in 2022? What happened? These questions need to be addressed by INEC.

This is going to be a very close election and to imagine millions are not going to be able to vote is sad and troubling.

The Senate/ House committees should be summoning the INEC chairman for some serious explanation.

BlueRayDick:


The way Russia was busy shelling Ukraine at the wake of the war, one would’ve thought Ukraine will be rubbles by now ……It’s surprising they could turn defence straight to counter attacks despite Russia’s supreme firepower .

Initially I thought the Ukraine president was a loudmouth who likes to talk and wouldn’t back his talks up with actions; alas he’s far from it. How he’s been able to keep the ship of his country sailing in the midst of the whole turmoil is something

The main reason Ukraine is standing now is the massive support in Cash and military hardware from NATO and particularly the US

1 vs 1 no foreign interference, Russia will level Ukraine in 2 months flat

raumdeuter:


The main reason Ukraine is standing now is the massive support in Cash and military hardware from NATO and particularly the US

1 vs 1 no foreign interference, Russia will level Ukraine in 2 months flat

Yeah, but if Ukraine was a country like Nigeria where corruption reigns supreme , I doubt if the cash and military hardware will matter . All the cash would’ve ended in some general’s pocket , the military hardware will most likely be sold on black market to armed groups across the Sahara .

So I believe the cash + miliatary hardware plays a significant role , but so also did the willpower the people of Ukraine and their tough talking president .

Roland17:


The Law, you see where I was heading!!!

How and why do we have 2M plus invalidated registration in 2022? What happened? These questions need to be addressed by INEC.

This is going to be a very close election and to imagine millions are not going to be able to vote is sad and troubling.

The Senate/ House committees should be summoning the INEC chairman for some serious explanation.

Majority of that number was invalidated due to multiple registration. Some people who have registered some years back still registered again.
I don't know why the percentage is so high in Ebonyi and Bayelsa, but the 30% in other regions is expected.

Emmynator:

Majority of that number was invalidated due to multiple registration. Some people who have registered some years back still registered again.
I don't know why the percentage is so high in Ebonyi and Bayelsa, but the 30% in other regions is expected.

That is because little was done in the area of proper voters education and I will blame INEC partly for this . All we heard while the voters registration was on was “ Get Your PVC “. It was only towards the end of the voters registration INEC came out to make clarifications that those who already had PVC’s but misplaced need not register for new one; rather they should apply for the lost one to be replaced . INEC from inception didn’t spell it out clearly that only those who turned 18 after the last election and those that have not held PVC’s in the past are those expected to register afresh.

So most people who either lost their PVC in the past or were unable to collect theirs the last time simply registered afresh and reason why their new registration has led to their disenfranchisement.

I said I blame INEC partly and blame the CSO’s , political parties and their influencers partly as well. They also could’ve let people understand on time that double registration will only lead to u being ineligible .

raumdeuter:


The main reason Ukraine is standing now is the massive support in Cash and military hardware from NATO and particularly the US

1 vs 1 no foreign interference, Russia will level Ukraine in 2 months flat

The cash and military hardware would not be so effective without the incompetence of the Russian military both in terms of technology and quality of commanders. Many analysts have been saying this for a number of years. Most of them got to their positions due to politicking and even on the field tactical decisions are being made by men in suits.

The underlying issue this addresses though is that question people have had for decades, a theoretical war between the U.S and Russia. It now appears that in a non-nuclear conflict the U.S would wipe the floor with Russia. Like beat them like a bad habit.

@raumdeuter

See the enviable profile of the wives of our MVP!

This man is a legend.. I am in tears!!!

BlueRayDick:


Yeah, but if Ukraine was a country like Nigeria where corruption reigns supreme , I doubt if the cash and military hardware will matter . All the cash would’ve ended in some general’s pocket , the military hardware will most likely be sold on black market to armed groups across the Sahara .

So I believe the cash + miliatary hardware plays a significant role , but so also did the willpower the people of Ukraine and their tough talking president .

make una easy with lamba abeg..

No country at war will ever misuse resources and aid given to them for selfish reasons..

afrodoc2:


The cash and military hardware would not be so effective without the incompetence of the Russian military both in terms of technology and quality of commanders. Many analysts have been saying this for a number of years. Most of them got to their positions due to politicking and even on the field tactical decisions are being made by men in suits.

The underlying issue this addresses though is that question people have had for decades, a theoretical war between the U.S and Russia. It now appears that in a non-nuclear conflict the U.S would wipe the floor with Russia. Like beat them like a bad habit.

how did it go out between the Russians and USA in Syria?

As at today would you term the USA 20 years in Afghanistan success or failure?

Head to head, I'll take the Russians military hardware's over the USA

Su35 3rd generation over f22

S400 over himars ETC

The Russian military is far ahead of the USA and the NATO countries 1 on 1 (not combined) in all ramifications

seankafor:
how did it go out between the Russians and USA in Syria?

As at today would you term the USA 20 years in Afghanistan success or failure?

Head to head, I'll take the Russians military hardware's over the USA

Su35 3rd generation over f22

S400 over himars ETC

The Russian military is far ahead of the USA and the NATO countries 1 on 1 (not combined) in all ramifications

military hardware

the us has the
navy
the airforce
the marines
the army

these units have frigates, destroyers, bombers, fighter jets, ground attack aircraft, air craft carriers, drones, different grades of firearms

you have listed three items as proof that russia has superior military hardware.

what russia has always had is good psyops

afrodoc2:


The cash and military hardware would not be so effective without the incompetence of the Russian military both in terms of technology and quality of commanders. Many analysts have been saying this for a number of years. Most of them got to their positions due to politicking and even on the field tactical decisions are being made by men in suits.

The underlying issue this addresses though is that question people have had for decades, a theoretical war between the U.S and Russia. It now appears that in a non-nuclear conflict the U.S would wipe the floor with Russia. Like beat them like a bad habit.

I'm not so sure about this.

I mean Russia has been showing a LOT of restraint in this war, primarily because they're trying to colonise Ukraine, not level it. That's why we're hearing reports of missile strikes with only 5-10 people reported dead, and why the Ukrainians still have electricity anf Internet.

In one of my rolese which ended las month, I worked with an offshore software engineering team entirely based in Ukraine, from tech lead to developers to testers, and them dey dey online all the time. They just all have guns in the corner. Stand ups dey funny die

I think it's an entirely different conversation if Russia was trying to annihilate the Ukrainians, and extrapolating from this, a different conversation if US was trying to destroy Russia or vice versa

Commercial kidnapping comes to Lagos to Benin

https://www.nairaland.com/7406736/many-feared-kidnapped-lagos-ibadan-expressway

nihilistjnr:


I'm not so sure about this.

I mean Russia has been showing a LOT of restraint in this war, primarily because they're trying to colonise Ukraine, not level it. That's why we're hearing reports of missile strikes with only 5-10 people reported dead, and why the Ukrainians still have electricity anf Internet.

In one of my rolese which ended las month, I worked with an offshore software engineering team entirely based in Ukraine, from tech lead to developers to testers, and them dey dey online all the time. They just all have guns in the corner. Stand ups dey funny die

I think it's an entirely different conversation if Russia was trying to annihilate the Ukrainians, and extrapolating from this, a different conversation if US was trying to destroy Russia or vice versa

Yes, if they were trying to destroy the country the situation might be a bit different, however you don't have to be aiming for annihilation before you demonstrate military superiority. Wars have more often than not been wars of conquest rather than annihilation, but we are still able to tell which army is on point and which one is not. Apart from their bullying expeditions in places like Chechnya and Georgia this is the first time the Russian military is facing an opponent that has some capacity to fight back and they are making a dog's dinner of it.

nihilistjnr:


I'm not so sure about this.

I mean Russia has been showing a LOT of restraint in this war, primarily because they're trying to colonise Ukraine, not level it. That's why we're hearing reports of missile strikes with only 5-10 people reported dead, and why the Ukrainians still have electricity anf Internet.

In one of my rolese which ended las month, I worked with an offshore software engineering team entirely based in Ukraine, from tech lead to developers to testers, and them dey dey online all the time. They just all have guns in the corner. Stand ups dey funny die

I think it's an entirely different conversation if Russia was trying to annihilate the Ukrainians, and extrapolating from this, a different conversation if US was trying to destroy Russia or vice versa

In terms of Russia vs U.S in a non-nuclear war i think the U.S military flogs them. The only issue is that if the carnage gets to both countries' homelands the American civilians don't have the resilience of the Russians. So even if they are winning on the field they might force their government to sue for peace rather than suffer wartime conditions. Plus, historically speaking invading Russia is usually a bad idea. I think the Mongols were the last to have unqualified success doing that, and that was a proto-Russian state still in its infancy.

Roland17:


My question is, why do we have high numbers of invalid registration across the country? Those % are an indictment on the technical abilities of the INEC officials on ground.

Were the machines faulty? Were they as a result of documentation errors? Were citizens educated and provided good help during registration. This is a problem Nigerians should be talking about because this is technically disenfranchisement of Nigerians.

INEC needs to come out and explain why the numbers are so high. If we have this number of invalidated registration, what can we expect will happen to votes after they have been cast? How many will become invalidated because of documentation/ machine errors?

Please if you don’t understand my thoughts above, ask for clarification before assuming.

Mostly na due to double registration.

Inec wont use incidence form in this election (At least that's what they said) only those accredited by the BVAS will be allowed to vote.

https://twitter.com/RealOlaudah/status/1585937369663938562?t=pBwzD1iEnFjrskh0JBMjiw&s=19

Agbadoman's age mate

raumdeuter:
At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress.

https://saharareporters.com/2022/10/28/peter-obi-unlikely-win-presidential-election-tinubus-presidency-will-increase-social

https://www.nairaland.com/7406409/fitch-predicts-bola-tinubu-win

https://twitter.com/AbdulMahmud01/status/1586285893274451971?t=JwlxdbyDv_tD5lucF5mndA&s=19

Interesting isn't it

Beautiful thread by Bayo Adeyinka
https://mobile.twitter.com/greaterbayo/status/1586314160568156161

BlueRayDick:


Yeah, but if Ukraine was a country like Nigeria where corruption reigns supreme , I doubt if the cash and military hardware will matter . All the cash would’ve ended in some general’s pocket , the military hardware will most likely be sold on black market to armed groups across the Sahara .

So I believe the cash + miliatary hardware plays a significant role , but so also did the willpower the people of Ukraine and their tough talking president .

That is a different argument

But don't underestimate the corruption in all those places too. They are as bad as in Nigeria

How did all the Oligarchs including Roman become billionaire?

This war is beyond Ukraine its a joint effort by NATO and US to treat Russias fuckup so they are not leaving it to Ukrainian even though they want to make it look like Ukraine is the one standing up to Russia.

USA is superior to Russia all day. That is what is being proven here. Billions are getting shipped to Ikraine daily from US amd EU

Take those away and this war won't last 1month

afrodoc2:


The cash and military hardware would not be so effective without the incompetence of the Russian military both in terms of technology and quality of commanders. Many analysts have been saying this for a number of years. Most of them got to their positions due to politicking and even on the field tactical decisions are being made by men in suits.

The underlying issue this addresses though is that question people have had for decades, a theoretical war between the U.S and Russia. It now appears that in a non-nuclear conflict the U.S would wipe the floor with Russia. Like beat them like a bad habit.

Anyone having a question about the theoretical war between US and Russia hasn't been paying attention.
Russia is no match for US in warfare. The amount US spends in defence budget in 1 year Russia cannot spend in 1 decade. The only thing causing a detente is the nukes the Russian have

Billions poured yearly into military budget and research is not for jokes. The starwars project already showed the Russian who is boss. They are just doing agidi to save face