THE SINCERE UNBIASED TRUTH.
There may be more brighter minds and more honest people than Obi among the presidential candidates, however, there are three frontrunners, and among these three Obi appears the most honest. He has less baggage.
Obi is the only candidate among the other ok candidates that has more chance of winning. I personally prefer him because I feel he will show more commitment and operate more independently because he doesn't really owe is candidature to any vested interests, political elites and groups. He is the only candidate outside the established political parties that has a chance.
To put it very simple; Atiku has the overwhelming sentiments of the north-west states and north-east states (11 states besides Bornu and Kano), Tinubu has the sentiments of the south-west states and Bornu (7 states), while Obi has the overwhelming sentiments of the south-east states and south-south states (11 states).
The battle ground will be in the north-central states. There are 7 of them including the FCT; Kwara and Kogi will definitely be won by Tinubu. Atiku will win Niger and Nasarawa. The sentiments in Benue and Plateau is favouring Obi. The FCT has most of the time voted for PDP, and this is because it has many resident igbos and Christians. Obi may very well inherit these support bases.
Factors I want you to note:
*on paper, Atiku appears the best placed out of all the candidates as he has support in ALL of the regions. This means, he appears the most likely to get the 25% in 26states or so that is needed to win.
*This election may be the very first in the history of Nigeria presidential election that will need a second round of election to get a clear winner.
*Obi enjoys far more support of the whole demography of southern youths compared to Tinubu.
*Kwankwanso is the great disruptor of the northern votes. He will win Kano and also do well in Kaduna. It will favour Obi if Kwankwaso go through to the very end in this election, and importantly, you all should know that it will be hard for Kwankwaso to step down now has he would have calculated that it will favour him in the grand scheme of things if Obi wins this election.
*Igbos are the only tribe that has significant population in ALL of the regions in Nigeria. And they feel it is their time now.
*BVAS is a great equalizer in this forth coming election. Votes cast successfully will count now. Osun is a case study. INEC is doing well so far and the recent CBN policies may also disrupt some established politicians and their age old tactics.
* Obi has a good chance. Has almost (if not more) a good chance as Tinubu. The chance is brighter if as much as 80% of all the people that believe in him come out to cast their votes. About 90% of the support bases of the other veteran politicians will cast their votes that day.

clowns Peter Obidense may even have more votes than Atiku.

2023 Is For Tinubu To Lose!

A nice writeup. But learn to use paragraphs.

NgeneUkwenu:
clowns Peter Obidense may even have more votes than Atiku.

2023 Is For Tinubu To Lose!

look your mirror and see a clown

Very senseless analyst chunning out bullcraps. Sorry to say sir.

Who told you christian-igbos dominates Abuja?

Atiku win Nasarawa?

And when reffering to Obi widespread in the south. Are you including to South-west also. Or just south-east and south-south.

I dont even understand you guys anymore. I can tell you havent even step your foot in any North-central state. Yet you sit in the corner of your home and analyse their political way there.

Kai...

This is a neutral observation. And it's true. But we will do our best and let God do the rest

As Atiku/PDP, I agree this is unbiased and true.

Tinubu may win the highest number of votes based on demographics, but Atiku will win the election because he is the only one that will get the statutory 26% in 26 states.

Kwankwaso might step down, but he shouldn't, he should also test his might like Obi is doing.

lhordspy:
Very senseless analyst chunning out bullcraps. Sorry to say sir.

Who told you christian-igbos dominates Abuja?

Atiku win Nasarawa?

And when reffering to Obi widespread in the south. Are you including to South-west also. Or just south-east and south-south.

I dont even understand you guys anymore. I can tell you havent even step your foot in any North-central state. Yet you sit in the corner of your home and analyse their political way there.

Kai...

Lunatic

Nature is against Tulunbu

Sha you heard of bees chasing those APC zombies abi?

Your own go be snakes and scorpions

FirstSon01:
As Atiku/PDP, I agree this is unbiased and true.

Tinubu may win the highest number of votes based on demographics, but Atiku will win the election because he is the only one that will get the statutory 26% in 26 states.

Kwankwaso might step down, but he shouldn't, he should also test his might like Obi is doing.

Atiku won't meet the spread

Tinubu will win!

Obi has no chance at all this time. I believe Obi is better positioned for 2039! Sorry, Obidients. Better luck next time.

As for Atiku, he scored an own goal by discounting Wike's nuisance value. I wonder what Atiku's chances would have been, if he had picked Wike as running mate!

garfield1:


Atiku won't meet the spread

States where he will get 25%:

Edo
Delta
Rivers
Cross Rivers
Akwa Ibom
Bayelsa
Oyo
Osun**
Anambra**
Kano
Jigawa
Adamawa
Kaduna**
Nassarawa
Plateau
Ekiti
Gombe
Fct
Kwara
Kebbi
Bauchi
Benue
Borno**
Kogi
Katsina
Niger
Taraba
Ogun**
Yobe

The asteriked states are very under probability.

Volksfuhrer:
Tinubu will win!

Obi has no chance at all this time. I believe Obi is better positioned for 2039! Sorry, Obidients. Better luck next time.

As for Atiku, he scored an own goal by discounting Wike's nuisance value. I wonder what Atiku's chances would have been, if he had picked Wike as running mate!

I'm glad he didn't pick wike.

Wike's Influence is only in Rivers and cross Rivers.

FirstSon01:


States where he will get 25%:

Edo
Delta
Rivers
Cross Rivers
Akwa Ibom
Bayelsa
Oyo
Osun**
Anambra**
Kano
Jigawa
Adamawa
Kaduna**
Nassarawa
Plateau
Ekiti
Gombe
Fct
Kwara
Kebbi
Bauchi
Benue
Borno**
Kogi
Katsina
Niger
Taraba
Ogun**
Yobe

The asteriked states are very under probability.

Most edo people are obidient,the remaining are batified,even obaseki confessed plus pdp is divided.he won't get it in rivers,wike has made sure of that.he wont get any polling unit in borno,yobe and anambra...with kwankwaso winning kano and tinubu coming second,he won't get it in kano.if obi wins kad south,atiku won't get kaduna. You saw what happened in ekiti polls.he will be lucky to get 10%.pdp is dead in Ogun.he will get it in Osun and ondo.with ortom rejecting him,he may not get it in benue.
He struggled to get 25% in kwara with buhari.am not sure he will get 25% this time

FirstSon01:


I'm glad he didn't pick wike.

Wike's Influence is only in Rivers and cross Rivers.

If Wike, as his current stance suggests, could sway some Governors (Makinde and co) to work against Atiku, then Wike's influence extends beyond Rivers and Cross Rivers.

thinkmoney:
THE SINCERE UNBIASED TRUTH.
There may be more brighter minds and more honest people than Obi among the presidential candidates, however, there are three frontrunners, and among these three Obi appears the most honest. He has less baggage.
Obi is the only candidate among the other ok candidates that has more chance of winning. I personally prefer him because I feel he will show more commitment and operate more independently because he doesn't really owe is candidature to any vested interests, political elites and groups. He is the only candidate outside the established political parties that has a chance.
To put it very simple; Atiku has the overwhelming sentiments of the north-west states and north-east states (11 states besides Bornu and Kano), Tinubu has the sentiments of the south-west states and Bornu (7 states), while Obi has the overwhelming sentiments of the south-east states and south-south states (11 states).
The battle ground will be in the north-central states. There are 7 of them including the FCT; Kwara and Kogi will definitely be won by Tinubu. Atiku will win Niger and Nasarawa. The sentiments in Benue and Plateau is favouring Obi. The FCT has most of the time voted for PDP, and this is because it has many resident igbos and Christians. Obi may very well inherit these support bases.
Factors I want you to note:
*on paper, Atiku appears the best placed out of all the candidates as he has support in ALL of the regions. This means, he appears the most likely to get the 25% in 26states or so that is needed to win.
*This election may be the very first in the history of Nigeria presidential election that will need a second round of election to get a clear winner.
*Obi enjoys far more support of the whole demography of southern youths compared to Tinubu.
*Kwankwanso is the great disruptor of the northern votes. He will win Kano and also do well in Kaduna. It will favour Obi if Kwankwaso go through to the very end in this election, and importantly, you all should know that it will be hard for Kwankwaso to step down now has he would have calculated that it will favour him in the grand scheme of things if Obi wins this election.
*Igbos are the only tribe that has significant population in ALL of the regions in Nigeria. And they feel it is their time now.
*BVAS is a great equalizer in this forth coming election. Votes cast successfully will count now. Osun is a case study. INEC is doing well so far and the recent CBN policies may also disrupt some established politicians and their age old tactics.
* Obi has a good chance. Has almost (if not more) a good chance as Tinubu. The chance is brighter if as much as 80% of all the people that believe in him come out to cast their votes. About 90% of the support bases of the other veteran politicians will cast their votes that day.

All political party in Nigeria are the same so as the politician, b4 in 1999 we only know of PDP and AD and some other party but what is the gain,

MissLeslie:



All political party in Nigeria are the same so as the politician, b4 in 1999 we only know of PDP and AD and some other party but what is the gain,

They may look the same, but no two things are exactly the same.
The point is to be honest enough to identify the least bad and support him

garfield1:


Most edo people are obidient,the remaining are batified,even obaseki confessed plus pdp is divided.he won't get it in rivers,wike has made sure of that.he wont get any polling unit in borno,yobe and anambra...with kwankwaso winning kano and tinubu coming second,he won't get it in kano.if obi wins kad south,atiku won't get kaduna. You saw what happened in ekiti polls.he will be lucky to get 10%.pdp is dead in Ogun.he will get it in Osun and ondo.with ortom rejecting him,he may not get it in benue.
He struggled to get 25% in kwara with buhari.am not sure he will get 25% this time

I'm in Edo state and I assure you he will get the 25% here, nobody sends obaseki.

Wike will use fraud to stop it in Rivers, that's why I'm not sure about that.

We will get 25% in Borno and Yobe, I'm being optimistic I know, but we can get 25% there if the campaigns become even more glaringly tribalistic.

Obi and Atiku won't get up to 25% in Kaduna. If anyone is to get pity votes from Kaduna south it's the PDP. El Rufai is out to play dirty like most BAT people.

Ortom is a failure and like Obaseki he doesn't have a say over who his people will vote.

You're right about the Kwara and Ogun situation.

From everything, it seems he will be shy of the 25 states but 20+ are secured. Hmmm, let's see how it goes.

Volksfuhrer:


If Wike, as his current stance suggests, could sway some Governors (Makinde and co) to work against Atiku, then Wike's influence extends beyond Rivers and Cross Rivers.

Just because the governors are with Wike doesn't mean the people are with Wike.

Oyo state is a no no. Seyi is risking his re election bid, he played good governance but dirty politics. If you're PDP you'll know some things.

Benue people dgaf about Ortom and I don't need to remind you that Ikpeazu and Ugwuanyi are rejected at home.

NgeneUkwenu:
clowns Peter Obidense may even have more votes than Atiku.

2023 Is For Tinubu To Lose!

Who is tinubu?

FirstSon01:


I'm in Edo state and I assure you he will get the 25% here, nobody sends obaseki.

Wike will use fraud to stop it in Rivers, that's why I'm not sure about that.

We will get 25% in Borno and Yobe, I'm being optimistic I know, but we can get 25% there if the campaigns become even more glaringly tribalistic.

Obi and Atiku won't get up to 25% in Kaduna. If anyone is to get pity votes from Kaduna south it's the PDP. El Rufai is out to play dirty like most BAT people.

Ortom is a failure and like Obaseki he doesn't have a say over who his people will vote.

You're right about the Kwara and Ogun situation.

From everything, it seems he will be shy of the 25 states but 20+ are secured. Hmmm, let's see how it goes.

The backbone of edo pdp has always been orbih and he is anti atiku.edo south esp Benin city is now obidient.edo central is slightly pdp while edo north is apc...
Atiku lowest votes in 2019 and even gej lowest votes was from borno and yobe.. How can atiku get pity votes in Kaduna south with the Christians there gunning for obi?

garfield1:


The backbone of edo pdp has always been orbih and he is anti atiku.edo south esp Benin city is now obidient.edo central is slightly pdp while edo north is apc...
Atiku lowest votes in 2019 and even gej lowest votes was from borno and yobe.. How can atiku get pity votes in Kaduna south with the Christians there gunning for obi?

Orbih isn't actively anti Atiku. He's just pro Wike.

You know a lot about Edo regional politics, kudos.

Are you indigenous?

The only thing that will stop Obi from winning will be INEC, alot of people will be voting for the first time and I don't see anyone going out of his or her way to vote for any other political party if not for labour party. Forget about APC noise and everything, this election is for Peter obi to lose, we don't have time for rallies or anything, all we are waiting for is febuary, I will be voting for the first time and I tell you, my vote will count because I will mobilize those around me and make sure they vote for Obi.
I wouldn't mind paying them whatever any other political party will pay them, it's nothing to compare to money one spends on a football club as a fan

FirstSon01:


States where he will get 25%:

Edo
Delta
Rivers
Cross Rivers
Akwa Ibom
Bayelsa
Oyo
Osun**
Anambra**
Kano
Jigawa
Adamawa
Kaduna**
Nassarawa
Plateau
Ekiti
Gombe
Fct
Kwara
Kebbi
Bauchi
Benue
Borno**
Kogi
Katsina
Niger
Taraba
Ogun**
Yobe

The asteriked states are very under probability.

Atiku get 25% on Anambra ? cross River ? Rivers ? Edo!!!? ?

We'll try travel sha Bros

mrvitalis:

Atiku get 25% on Anambra ? cross River ? Rivers ? Edo!!!? ?

We'll try travel sha Bros

Yes, he will win Edo.