I am not the type that play politics with sentiments as I am a realist to the core when it come to supporting candidate and political predictions.

A lot of people have been giving permutations and predictions on the outcome of 2023 presidential election but many have not been able to look at 2023 election from different point of view away from the previous elections in Nigeria.

2023 presidential election is a 3 horse race fight among three contestants namely; Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

The purpose of my post is directed at Tinubu's Supporters on how their candidate can win majority votes in at least 8 states in the entire South.

It is certain that Tinubu will clear 6 SW states with very good performance, however, there's need for Tinubu to win additional states in the South.

Which States do you think that could be?

What should Tinubu and APC supporters in the South be doing to actualise this.

Please note that I limit my discussion to Southern region as many posts here have judiciously treated Tinubu's performance in the other 3 regions in the north.

Let's hear your opinion on how Tinubu can win 8 States in the South in 2023 presidential election

cc

Garfield
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FreestuffNG
Kwararat
Dsalvo
Moh247
Femisplash
ihorspy
Plain dealer
Legend hero
ItsTutsi
Ngeneukwenu
Alsudan

My hypothesis


SouthWest has highest number of PVC, standing at 19%

SouthSouth has 15%

SouthEast has 12%

Premesis for my permutations

SouthEast has 2 APC state that can deliver 25%

SouthSouth has Delta with a Deputy Senator, James Ibori, Ayiri Emami that can deliver 25%, Edo north has Oshiomole, Akwa Ibom has Akpabio, Cross Rivers is an APC State


.

Moh247:



My hypothesis


SouthWest has highest number of PVC, standing at 19%

SouthSouth has 15%

SouthEast has 12%

Premesis for my permutations

SouthEast has 2 APC state that can deliver 25%

SouthSouth has Delta with a Deputy Senator, James Ibori, Ayiri Emami that can deliver 25%, Edo north has Oshiomole, Akwa Ibom has Akpabio, Cross Rivers is an APC State


.

I think we should look at other states in the South that is possible for Tinubu to get the majority votes

Ttalk:


I think we should look at other states in the South that is possible for Tinubu to get the majority votes

Tinubu is getting majority vote in all SouthWest state

I think Edo state should be one of the state where any serious candidate among the three presidential candidate can pull a surprise with the right bargain and promise which I think Tinubu is good at.

Traditionally Edo state has been voting alongside SW party for so many reasons and since those factors are still accessible, it is possible for Tinubu to penetrate Edo South and Central to complement Edo north that is already in the kitty of APC

Aside winning all SW states. he needs at least 25% in five states out of 11 states in SS & SE.

Moh247:


Tinubu is getting majority vote in all SouthWest state

That's 6 states out of 17 States.

How can he win additional 2 states to get majority states in the other 2 states share the remaining 9 states.

That will give him the dominant position in the South, and would help in the long run solidify his government

femisplash:
Aside winning all SW states. he needs at least 25% in five states out of 11 states in SS & SE.

This is a prediction that rely on other variables like his performance in the north, Obi performance in the SE and SS.

These factors cannot be directly control by Tinubu or APC, so should not be used to gauge the outcome of the election, rather focus should be on areas where Tinubu can directly influence

Ttalk:

The purpose of my post is directed at Tinubu's Supporters on how their candidate can win majority votes in at least 8 states in the entire South.

It is certain that Tinubu will clear 6 SW states with very good performance, however, there's need for Tinubu to win additional states in the South.

Which States do you think that could be?

What should Tinubu and APC supporters in the South be doing to actualise this.

Please note that I limit my discussion to Southern region as many posts here have judiciously treated Tinubu's performance in the other 3 regions in the north.

Let's hear your opinion on how Tinubu can win 8 States in the South in 2023 presidential election

cc

Garfield
Ratified
FreestuffNG
Kwararat
Dsalvo
Moh247
Femisplash
ihorspy
Plain dealer
Legendhero

Op, only a person high on Kai-Kai will think Tinubu will get 25% in any SS state.
So you guys have started to see reality, abi. I thought Tinubu had the election on lock and key. Don't worry, las las, a female will hug and comfort you on election night when you see what the powers that be have in stock for you and Tinubu, who already knows he has lost.

Moh247:



My hypothesis


SouthWest has highest number of PVC, standing at 19%

SouthSouth has 15%

SouthEast has 12%

Premesis for my permutations

SouthEast has 2 APC state that can deliver 25%

SouthSouth has Delta with a Deputy Senator, James Ibori, Ayiri Emami that can deliver 25%, Edo north has Oshiomole, Akwa Ibom has Akpabio, Cross Rivers is an APC State


.

The two SE states will give Tinubu 8%, while the SS states will give him 6.5. You guys will see wehn, on that day.

ganisucks:

Op, only a person high on Kai-Kai will think Tinubu will get 25% in any SS state.
So you guys have started to see reality, abi. I thought Tinubu had the election on lock and key. Don't worry, las las, a female will hug and comfort you on election night when you see what the powers that be have in stock for you and Tinubu, who already knows he has lost.

You have never for once be objective on nairaland with your baseless concoction assertions that is bereft of any logical reasoning, how you are going to live in such blind state for another 8 years is what baffles me having spent the last 7+ years on false hopes.

Getting 25% in many states of the South is not an issue but we are pushing further to win at least additional 2 States which is possible

ganisucks:

The two SE states will give Tinubu 8%, while the SS states will give him 6.5. You guys will see wehn, on that day.

There would be a regional realignment in 2023. This is the basis of Soludo anger against your Nsogbu nsogbu politics of brawl without brain, how SE reason politically is still a mystery to many

Ttalk:


There would be a regional realignment in 2023. This is the basis of Soludo anger against your Nsogbu nsogbu politics of brawl without brain, how SE reason politically is still a mystery to many

You have no idea what's coming. Tinubu knows what's coming, and so is creating traces of why he will lose.

ganisucks:

You have no idea what's coming. Tinubu knows what's coming, and so is creating traces of why he will lose.

You never make sense for once.

Ttalk:
I think Edo state should be one of the state where any serious candidate among the three presidential candidate can pull a surprise with the right bargain and promise which I think Tinubu is good at.

Traditionally Edo state has been voting alongside SW party for so many reasons and since those factors are still accessible, it is possible for Tinubu to penetrate Edo South and Central to complement Edo north that is already in the kitty of APC

2015 SW voted APC, Edo voted PDP.. Same thing happened in 2019.. So you are wrong to say Edo state always vote alongside SW..

My opinion is that Tinibu can only win 6 out of 17 in Southern Region, no more no less.

What he can do is to at least 25% in 4 of the remaining 11 states of southern Nigeria.. That's achievable in CRS, Delta, Edo and maybe Ebonyi..

Ttalk:


You have never for once be objective on nairaland with your baseless concoction assertions that is bereft of any logical reasoning, how you are going to live in such blind state for another 8 years is what baffles me having spent the last 7+ years on false hopes.

Getting 25% in many states of the South is not an issue but we are pushing further to win at least additional 2 States which is possible

You dey teach her pol 001.. OBidients no Dey reason normal..

Na why I Dey tell them say Tinubu go top 6 million of whatever vote Obi get.., and still lose ..

This you know..


Power to the people
North 2023

Apart from SW, which he will clear.. Tinubu needs just 25% in 3 other state in south

Tinubu doesn't need to win 8 states, the votes he will get in Borno and Yobe state alone will make up for any deficiency in south

Ttalk:
I am not the type that play politics with sentiments as I am a realist to the core when it come to supporting candidate and political predictions.

A lot of people have been giving permutations and predictions on the outcome of 2023 presidential election but many have not been able to look at 2023 election from different point of view away from the previous elections in Nigeria.

2023 presidential election is a 3 horse race fight among three contestants namely; Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

The purpose of my post is directed at Tinubu's Supporters on how their candidate can win majority votes in at least 8 states in the entire South.

It is certain that Tinubu will clear 6 SW states with very good performance, however, there's need for Tinubu to win additional states in the South.

Which States do you think that could be?

What should Tinubu and APC supporters in the South be doing to actualise this.

Please note that I limit my discussion to Southern region as many posts here have judiciously treated Tinubu's performance in the other 3 regions in the north.

Let's hear your opinion on how Tinubu can win 8 States in the South in 2023 presidential election

cc

Garfield
Batified
FreestuffNG
Kwararat
Dsalvo
Moh247
Femisplash
ihorspy
Plain dealer
Legend hero
ItsTutsi

ImmaculateJOE:

2015 SW voted APC, Edo voted PDP.. Same thing happened in 2019.. So you are wrong to say Edo state always vote alongside SW..

My opinion is that Tinibu can only win 6 out of 17 in Southern Region, no more no less.

What he can do is to at least 25% in 4 of the remaining 11 states of southern Nigeria.. That's achievable in CRS, Delta, Edo and maybe Ebonyi..

The present political game is beyond that already. That is why online supporters need to keyed into the new task which must be accomplished.

The new task is to win additional 2 states in the South, if you don't believe then you are not a true follower of Tinubu's capacity.

Edo has always voted alongside SW when SW's son is on the ballot, they share many things in common apart from being in the same region in time past. Those factors can still be accessed

Asgard73:


You dey teach her pol 001.. OBidients no Dey reason normal..

Na why I Dey tell them say Tinubu go top 6 million of whatever vote Obi get.., and still lose ..

This you know..


Power to the people
North 2023

Asgard where have you been,?

There have been top alignment and you seems not to be aware, how come you claim to be a top politician, abi your boss no get level ni?

Ttalk:


Asgard where have you been,?

There have been top alignment and you don't know, how come you claim to be a top politician, abi your boss no get level ni

I’ve been busy .. election is February.. votes .. na Dey votes we the hustle ..

I no get Boss.. all na senior men..

Ttalk:


You never make sense for once.

Clue: Tinubu before primaries was sound as a 20year old
Tinubu after primaries became as dodo as a tata.

Qudus and Inflection girl will tell you that it's a strategy to deceive the Northern elite into letting him win.

The real truth is that Tinubu is a bad sportsman. He hates to lose. He's the kind of boxer that will fake an injury, when told in his next bout he'll have to take a dive.

ganisucks:

Clue: Tinubu before primaries was sound as a 20year old
Tinubu after primaries became as dodo as a tata.

Qudus and Inflection girl will tell you that it's a strategy to deceive the Northern elite into letting him win.

The real truth is that Tinubu is a bad sportsman. He hates to lose. He's the kind of boxer that will fake an injury, when told in his next bout he'll have to take a dive.

Trying to sound intelligent but can't still make up your mind.

You have spent so much energy here sadly with no direction

Ttalk:


The present political game is beyond that already. That is why online supporters need to keyed into the new task which must be accomplished.

The new task is to win additional 2 states in the South, if you don't believe then you are not a true follower of Tinubu's capacity.

Edo has always voted alongside SW when SW's son is on the ballot, they share many things in common apart from being in the same region in time past. Those factors can still be accessed

You keep saying Edo has always voted alongside SW, show us evidence..

Tunibu cannot win any other state in south except SW west states.. Know this and have peace of mind..

Tinibu can only aim to achieve 25% in other southern states, victory there is an impossible task.. Obi is taking Edo straight up..

Moh247:



My hypothesis


SouthWest has highest number of PVC, standing at 19%

SouthSouth has 15%

SouthEast has 12%

Premesis for my permutations

SouthEast has 2 APC state that can deliver 25%

SouthSouth has Delta with a Deputy Senator, James Ibori, Ayiri Emami that can deliver 25%, Edo north has Oshiomole, Akwa Ibom has Akpabio, Cross Rivers is an APC State


.

I don't understand how you guys calculate. Are you calculating their weight or what? How can Ayiri in my state secure 25% vote for Tinubu in Delta? I don't understand o. You guys are holding on to impossible things. Just say Tinubu will get 25%, but adding Ayiri as the person that will give Tinubu 25% is impossible.

Ttalk:


There would be a regional realignment in 2023. This is the basis of Soludo anger against your Nsogbu nsogbu politics of brawl without brain, how SE reason politically is still a mystery to many

So Soludo will be the one to decide how the people of the SE will vote?

misano:



I don't understand how you guys calculate. Are you calculating their weight or what? How can Ayiri in my state secure 25% vote for Tinubu in Delta? I don't understand o. You guys are holding on to impossible things. Just say Tinubu will get 25%, but adding Ayiri as the person that will give Tinubu 25% is impossible.

No allow them to continue to deceive themselves.The same way someone is hoping that Hope Uzodimma will give him 25% in Imo

Ttalk:


You have never for once be objective on nairaland with your baseless concoction assertions that is bereft of any logical reasoning, how you are going to live in such blind state for another 8 years is what baffles me having spent the last 7+ years on false hopes.

Getting 25% in many states of the South is not an issue but we are pushing further to win at least additional 2 States which is possible

Give it up Buddy. It ain't gonna happen. What I find interesting is that you accuse others of being beholden to a lack of objectivity, while you are indeed him who is reeking of what you accuse others of.

Buhari was and is still more popular, and almost baggage free at election times, yet performed abysmally in the places you are hoping to scratch a win for a not liked and severely blotted Tinubu.

There are no Southern states Tinubu can carry outside the Southwest. Lagos will be a near split between Tinubu and Obi, regardless of the Intimidation and rigging practices Tinubu deploys.

And as far as the south goes, he will narrowly win the Southwest ahead of Peter Obi. He cannot secure the spread in any southeast states and may get the spread in two Southside states.

Finally, Tinubu cannot win this election. You'd also come to this obvious conclusion if you are friends with objectivity, which you are not.

00FFT00:


Give it up Buddy. It ain't gonna happen. What I find interesting is that you accuse others of being beholden to a lack of objectivity, while you are indeed him who is reeking of what you accuse others of.

Buhari was and is still more popular, and almost baggage free at election

times, yet performed abysmally in the places you are hoping to scratch a win for a not liked and severely blotted Tinubu.[i][/i]

There are no Southern states Tinubu can carry outside the Southwest. Lagos will be a near split between Tinubu and Obi, regardless of the Intimidation and rigging practices Tinubu deploys.

And as far as the south goes, he will narrowly win the Southwest ahead of Peter Obi. He cannot secure the spread in any southeast states and may get the spread in two Southside states.

Finally, Tinubu cannot win this election. You'd also come to this obvious conclusion if you are friends with objectivity, which you are not.

Debating politics with Obidients is a Herculean task and t will just amount to effort in futility as Obidients don't have any space in their brain that processes politics.

Instances abound where you guys have made so many wrong predictions that is why I refrained this discussion to an open and progressive mind who doesn't discuss politics with emotion.

How do I argue with someone who claims Buhari is more popular than Tinubu in the South?

You claimed Obi will be trailing Tinubu in Lagos when in fact he can't win the 3Local government.

Please speak within the context of what you know, SE and SS are never the same your assertions that Obi will clear SS is gross ignorant.

Every region is charting a new course and it is an insult to arrogate the political destiny of SS to SE who is at the lower echelon of political stand presently in Nigeria.

Tinubu can win additional states in the South, that is a fact, and alliance and alignment will make that happen.

There's no motivation for any state in the South to pitch tent with LP, unlike APC that is in a sure position to win the 2023 presidential election.

It would have made small sense if David Lion had not won Bayelsa under APC if not for the court that upturned his victory.

Politics is not a one-way race like many from your region are playing it, but thank God many of your leaders are coming to terms with the reality and are making necessary adjustments

Ttalk:


Debating politics with Obidients is a Herculean task and t will just amount to effort in futility as Obidients don't have any space in their brain that process politics.

Instances abounds where you guys have made so many wrong predictions that is why I refrained this discussion to open and progressive mind who doesn't discuss politics with emotion.

My discussions in a faceless, anonymous forum have no business with emotion. That is reserved for my family and friends. That being said, it is clear that those who have no coherent argument always certainly resort to insults and blackmail.

This is what you're doing. Stop it.

00FFT00:


My discussions in a faceless, anonymous forum have no business with emotion. That is reserved for my family and friends. That being said, it is clear that those who have no coherent argument always certainly resort to insults and blackmail.

This is what you're doing. Stop it.

I take back any words that look like insult to you. However many of your peoples points here are insults to a true SSner

Moh247:



My hypothesis


SouthWest has highest number of PVC, standing at 19%

SouthSouth has 15%

SouthEast has 12%

Premesis for my permutations

SouthEast has 2 APC state that can deliver 25%

SouthSouth has Delta with a Deputy Senator, James Ibori, Ayiri Emami that can deliver 25%, Edo north has Oshiomole, Akwa Ibom has Akpabio, Cross Rivers is an APC State


.

Urchins keep giving themselves false hopes instead of facing the harsh reality. You and the op are quite delusional.

Firstly, Tinubu can only win maximum of 5 states in the South i.e. all SW states minus Lagos. Even at that, he can only win SW marginally because of his offensive Mu-Mu presidential ticket which made SW Christians to mostly reject him.

Secondly, Tinubu can't possibly get 25% in any SE state. Even PDP that used to be entrenched in SE can't dream of that now talk less of APC that totally failed Nigerians in addition to its Mu-Mu ticket!

Thirdly, SW may have 19% of PVC's but majority of them are in Lagos which is more or less a neutral state. Remove Lagos and you will realize that SW actually has the lowest PVC's in Nigeria!

VoteObi2SaveNai:


Urchins keep giving themselves false hopes instead of facing the harsh reality. You and the op are quite delusional.

Firstly, Tinubu can only win maximum of 5 states in the South i.e. all SW states minus Lagos. Even at that, he can only win SW marginally because of his offensive Mu-Mu presidential ticket which made SW Christians to mostly reject him.

Secondly, Tinubu can't possibly get 25% in any SE state. Even PDP that used to be entrenched in SE can't dream of that now talk less of APC that totally failed Nigerians in addition to its Mu-Mu ticket!

Thirdly, SW may have 19% of PVC's but majority of them are in Lagos which is more or less a neutral state. Remove Lagos and you will realize that SW actually has the lowest PVC's in Nigeria!

One of the reasons for this thread is to address the uncertainty that SE may pose in 2023.

What is the uncertainty?

That LP and Obi will perform below expectation, giving PDP chance to make a huge impact in SE, not that you are a threat in any way to Tinubu and APC.

When you are still solving 1+1 we are already solving calculus. Politics is not your game with the exception of a few from your region who are doing the needful as we speak