Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

You analysis make sense

Edit your post and give paragraph to make it more interesting to read

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.
Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.
Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.
With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

Time will tell..

All I know is that Obi is will win between 12-14 states...

That more than one third of the entire states..

ImmaculateJOE:

Time will tell..

All I know is that Obi is will win between 12-14 states...

That more than one third of the entire states..

That would be 5 se,edo,crs,rivers,benue,plateau,fct,maybe nasarawa or kaduna.tinubi should win 15,atiku 8, kwankwaso 1

A subtle reminder



.

garfield1:


That would be 5 se,edo,crs,rivers,benue,plateau,fct,maybe nasarawa or kaduna.tinubi should win 15,atiku 8, kwankwaso 1

Obi can't win Nasarawa, it's practically impossible.. For Kaduna, he should focus on Southern Kaduna.. I will advice they hold their rally in Kafanchan, forget Kaduna city..

States to win: 5SE, Crs, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kaduna....

AKS, Taraba is also winnable..

Moh247:


A subtle reminder



.

What matters is level of turnout not total voters.in 2011,ss and se gave gej 12 million while ne/nw gave buhari gave buhari 8 mil.how you do damage in opposition area is also key

garfield1:


What matters is level of turnout not total voters.in 2011,ss and se gave gej 12 million while ne/nw gave buhari gave buhari 8 mil.how you do damage in opposition area is also key

Are we forgetting sit at home ESN/UGM would cause voter apathy or the fact that INEC offices with uncollected PVC are getting burnt?!

.

Your next president its peter obi

ImmaculateJOE:

Obi can't win Nasarawa, it's practically impossible.. For Kaduna, he should focus on Southern Kaduna.. I will advice they hold their rally in Kafanchan, forget Kaduna city..

States to win: 5SE, Crs, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kaduna....

AKS, Taraba is also winnable..

He has more chance in nasarawa.buhari won there in 2019 by just 6000 votes and Christian's make up 50%.crs is tight,anyone can win.he should also concentrate in Karina central.chikun,kajuru are Christian dominated and many Christian's are in kad city south of the river and even in saminaka axis of lere lga...
Aks is not winnable.theu are staunchly pdp.highest he can get is 25%.same for taraba.

Moh247:


Are we forgetting sit at home ESN/UGM would cause voter apathy or the fact that INEC offices with uncollected PVC are getting burnt?!

.

What if they don't declare sit at home? Seems ipob like obi.but highest turnout in se should be 4 million and 5 mil in ss

garfield1:


That would be 5 se,edo,crs,rivers,benue,plateau,fct,maybe nasarawa or kaduna.tinubi should win 15,atiku 8, kwankwaso 1

Tinubu can only win 8 states with lower margins .

Obi is winning the election hands down

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.
Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.
Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.
With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

Your analysis are logical. Can you use paragraphs to make it more readable.

I predict LP 11m, Pdp 9.3m, APC 9.2m, NNPP 3.9m
A rerun is possible

Chuksaluta:


Your analysis are logical. Can you use paragraphs to make it more readable.

I predict LP 11m, Pdp 9.3m, APC 9.2m, NNPP 3.9m
A rerun is possible

Ok.what will kill obi chances are low scores in ne/nw

Ttalk:
You analysis make sense

Edit your post and give paragraph to make it more interesting to read

True.thanks

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

From "Peter Obi will come 4th with less than 1mil votes" to "10mil votes for him in 2nd place."
The reality is now dawning on u even you know deep inside you thiefnubuu no go fit get up to 6mil votes in this election

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

From "Peter Obi will come 4th with less than 1mil votes" to "10mil votes for him in 2nd place."
The reality is now dawning on u even you know deep inside you thiefnubuu no go fit get up to 6mil votes in this election

PureMe01:



From "Peter Obi will come 4th with less than 1mil votes" to "10mil votes for him in 2nd place."
The reality is now dawning on u even you know deep inside you thiefnubuu no go fit get up to 6mil votes in this election

I never said obi will finish 4th.lowest he wi finsish is 2nd,tinubu will damage him in core north

What's with the discordant voice coming from Bayelsa?

They should not fail the South hand o by letting Emilokan win a southern state outside his region o.

excanny:
What's with the discordant voice coming from Bayelsa?

They should not fail the South hand o by letting Emilokan win a southern state outside his region o.

Out of all the ss/se state,obi lowest votes will come from here

Lol garfield1again

Bedroom analyst

Ttalk:
You analysis make sense

Edit your post and give paragraph to make it more interesting to read

Garfield1, next time mention this your alternate moniker Ttalk in your list so that no one will know its your alternate.

Your analysis is flawed because you counted Buhari's votes. That's just the height of being silly. It's like saying George Bush got 10m votes therefore Trump will also get 10m votes.

Buhari is no longer in the polls. What you have is a Senile old man that Nigerians cannot accept. Wake up and look for proper analyst work biko.

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

Obi ... structureless party 10 million votes from an anti labour party supporter
Wow obi has indeed surpassed all expectations

On a serious note fair analysis but u missed one part the 63 million Nigerians that haven't voted

People like me , people like my family members ,my friends who haven't voted but are ready this time to not only vote ...but also support obi financially

If obi gets 10% of that that's 6 million extra votes

So that's obi 16 million votes

2023 is drawing closer by the day. Atiku will lead in the North Obi will lead in the South... It's a matter of who gets more outside his region. The dynamics of previous elections are near absent. No inheritance or inherited votes or popularity. 'Jiki magayi ne'.

Moh247:


A subtle reminder



.

Also remind yourself that South East is the only region that registration is 99% indigenous.
No some regions have Igbos among those numbers. So your reminder should be for you!

Obidient4life2:

Also remind yourself that South East is the only region that registration is 99% indigenous.
No some regions have Igbos among those numbers. So your reminder should be for you!

Eyah I thought everyone in Ibo land SouthEast are 1000% Ibos no Fulani herdmen or Yoruba, why 99%

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

You try but consider these factors also:
*The Buhari factor won't be there in the North
*APC'S Muslim/Muslim Ticket will cause lots of damages to their chances than good
*The Gino's are Desperate to support Obi,there will be Massive Turnout there.
*The Electorates are now More Enlightened than before,many now wants to Vote individual and Not the Party
*The forth coming Election will be too divisive(Northern Muslims will most likely want to Vote for Atiku,the Yoruba Muslims will massively Vote for BAT,while the Yoruba christians,and the S/S and S/E will like give obi their Votes
*The poor performance of Pmb will affect the chances of ApC At the polls
*There will be Lots of Betrayals
laslas,Everybody should get their PVC ready and plan to Vote during the forthcoming Election.