Very senseless analysis,how did you know that people will vote the same way they voted in the last election?

Obidient4life2:

Also remind yourself that South East is the only region that registration is 99% indigenous.
No some regions have Igbos among those numbers. So your reminder should be for you!

You are very very wrong,There are lots of Non Igbos dominating some business line in igboland thou majority of them will VOTE for Obi at the Presidential Election

garfield1:


Ok.what will kill obi chances are low scores in ne/nw

you don dey wake up small small..dont worry by january you will make up more and by february you will finally be awake...no one can fight the truth, the truth is always glaring no matter how hard we fight it....lets continue doing our fun fight over nairaland while nature reset itself...

garfield1:


Out of all the ss/se state,obi lowest votes will come from here

you will be surprised brotherly....lets watch as the movie unfold before our eyes

I think you are miscalculating obi can't win my state imo state.

ImmaculateJOE:

Obi can't win Nasarawa, it's practically impossible.. For Kaduna, he should focus on Southern Kaduna.. I will advice they hold their rally in Kafanchan, forget Kaduna city..

States to win: 5SE, Crs, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kaduna....

AKS, Taraba is also winnable..

Resurrection212:
I think you are miscalculating obi can't win my state imo state.

You are a comedian

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

so Obi will no longer get less than 1m votes? Now he will get 10m according to urchin? If you believe Obi will get that much I believe he will poll double of that. It's obi's election to lose.

SIONKPO1:

You try but consider these factors also:
*The Buhari factor won't be there in the North
*APC'S Muslim/Muslim Ticket will cause lots of damages to their chances than good
*The Gino's are Desperate to support Obi,there will be Massive Turnout there.
*The Electorates are now More Enlightened than before,many now wants to Vote individual and Not the Party
*The forth coming Election will be too divisive(Northern Muslims will most likely want to Vote for Atiku,the Yoruba Muslims will massively Vote for BAT,while the Yoruba christians,and the S/S and S/E will like give obi their Votes
*The poor performance of Pmb will affect the chances of ApC At the polls
*There will be Lots of Betrayals
laslas,Everybody should get their PVC ready and plan to Vote during the forthcoming Election.

Yoruba Christian are not bias, never you equate your sentiment judgement on great Yoruba people.

I am a Yoruba Christian and my vote goes to BAT

Ttalk:


Yoruba Christian are not bias, never you equate your sentiment judgement on great Yoruba people.

I am a Yoruba Christian and my vote goes to BAT

I don't mean all Yoruba Christians.
Believe me I have interacted with many and they are mostly against the candidature of Tinubu.
Mind you personalities like Bishop Oyedepo, Bishop Abioye,Pastor Kumuyi,Pastor Adeboye will openly or codedly tell their congregation to VOTE against BAT.
Mind you the average Yoruba will look towards obi cause he is the only Christian Candidate of the 3 major candidates

garfield1:
Buhari recorded an average of 15 million votes between 2015 and 2019 while pdp recorded an average of 11.5 million in the same period.half of those buhari votes are from his northern fanatics who won't vote tinubu and may not scatter their votes between tinubu,atiku and kwankwaso.it means tinubu has about 7.5 million available votes in default and if those buharists share votes equally,tinubu will inherit a further 2.5 million which is one third of buhari votes.with tinubu being the only Yoruba on the ballot,his votes will slightly increase by a million meaning tinubu should score at least 11 mil.


Out of the 11.5 million atiku polled in 2019,6 million were from the south and they are almost gone with obi or tinubu.half of his northern Christian votes are gone which means he has 5 mil votes standing.a quarter of buharists voting him will push him to 7.5 million plus 1 mil new voters up north which puts his total at 8.5 mil.


Obi has 6 million out of the 11 million votes atiku had.out of the 9.5 million new voters,5 million should vote and 60% will go to obi which is about 3mil. plus 1 million new voters from ss/se/nc totalling 10 mil votes for obi.


With one million new pvc card holders voting tinubu,atiku and 500k voting kwankwaso,tinubu will now have 12 million,obi 10 mil and atiku 8.5 million.



Cc mynd44
Lalasticlala
Nplfmod
Kyase
Legendhero
Pakute
Esseite
Penguin2
Majole
Ityp
Immaculatejoe
Naijaroyaltu
Obuksbayelsa
Chukel
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Flows
Murphyibiam
Ebubu
Indispensable
Okoroawusa
Norsyk
Omenka
Benuejosh
Bennycollins
Sionkpo
Ekpeitit

SORRY YOU ARE WRONG. NC, SS, SW and SE gave Buhari only 5.6 million votes. Pick a calculator and seat down and calculate it. I have done that already. Obi is going to win the next election. Tinubu has a lot oc work to do up North.

Again SS, SE, NC and SW gave Atiku 7 million votes.

Please calculate it yourself. NE and NW gave Atiku about 4 million. Go and check it.

SIONKPO1:

I don't mean all Yoruba Christians.
Believe me I have interacted with many and they are mostly against the candidature of Tinubu.
Mind you personalities like Bishop Oyedepo, Bishop Abioye,Pastor Kumuyi,Pastor Adeboye will openly or codedly tell their congregation to VOTE against BAT.
Mind you the average Yoruba will look towards obi cause he is the only Christian Candidate of the 3 major candidates

You are a lair just like your Peter Obi. Yoruba are so rational minded that they don't behave like you do.

None of those you mentioned will ever ask their congregation to vite any candidate.

You are not Yoruba than me neither are you more Yoruba Christian than me. Whatever your thought revolves in your brain and your brain only

The average Yoruba will look at past record and capacity with no emotion that is making you reason like a kindergarten

Ttalk:


You are a lair just like your Peter Obi. Yoruba are so rational minded that they don't behave like you do.

None of those you mentioned will ever ask their congregation to vite any candidate.

You are not Yoruba than me neither are you more Yoruba Christian than me. Whatever your thought revolves in your brain and your brain only

Try to communicate without insults.
You lack proper communication skills you really need to go and learn that.
Shame on you that you are supporting BAT because he is from your Ethnic but not Competence.
OBI is not perfect but he won't do things in the old order

If Peter Peter Obi come second in this election I owe you 100K cash

PureMe01:

From "Peter Obi will come 4th with less than 1mil votes" to "10mil votes for him in 2nd place."
The reality is now dawning on u even you know deep inside you thiefnubuu no go fit get up to 6mil votes in this election

misano:


SORRY YOU ARE WRONG. NC, SS, SW and SE gave Buhari only 5.6 million votes. Pick a calculator and seat down and calculate it. I have done that already. Obi is going to win the next election. Tinubu has a lot oc work to do up North.

Again SS, SE, NC and SW gave Atiku 7 million votes.

Please calculate it yourself. NE and NW gave Atiku about 4 million. Go and check it.

You are not getting it.i am approximating.it doesnt mean it will fall exactly like my figures.obi cannot win because he will lose scandalously in ne/nw

Chuksaluta:


Your analysis are logical. Can you use paragraphs to make it more readable.

I predict LP 11m, Pdp 9.3m, APC 9.2m, NNPP 3.9m
A rerun is possible

He missed something, Buhari got less than 6 million votes from SS, SE, SW and NC. I think about 5.6 million when I calculated it.

Shocking part is that Atiku got less than 4 million from NE and NW. 7 million from SS, SE, SW and NC went to Atiku.

mrvitalis:

Obi ... structureless party 10 million votes from an anti labour party supporter
Wow obi has indeed surpassed all expectations

On a serious note fair analysis but u missed one part the 63 million Nigerians that haven't voted

People like me , people like my family members ,my friends who haven't voted but are ready this time to not only vote ...but also support obi financially

If obi gets 10% of that that's 6 million extra votes

So that's obi 16 million votes

I factored in all that na.I even overrated obi.unfortunately his region has small turnout and registered voters plus he
will lose scandalously up north

SIONKPO1:

Try to communicate without insults.
You lack proper communication skills you need to go and learn that.
Shame on you that you are supporting BAT because he is from your Ethnic but not Competence.
OBI is not perfect but he won't do things in the old order

I said you are a liar. I repeat you are a lair like Peter Obi. What an insult that Yoruba Christians will vote based on religious sentiment. You are sick upstairs for trying to play the victim card.

I repeat you are a lair a shameless one. Disprove if you are not one and stop behaving like a nanny

NothingDoMe:
Garfield1, next time mention this your alternate moniker Ttalk in your list so that no one will know its your alternate.

Your analysis is flawed because you counted Buhari's votes. That's just the height of being silly. It's like saying George Bush got 10m votes therefore Trump will also get 10m votes.

Buhari is no longer in the polls. What you have is a Senile old man that Nigerians cannot accept. Wake up and look for proper analyst work biko.

Tinubu will get at least half of Buhari votes.out of that 15 mil,half is apc.half is buharists afterall atiku inherited gej 12 mil votes

garfield1:



You are not getting it.i am approximating.it doesnt mean it will fall exactly like my figures.obi cannot win because he will lose scandalously in ne/nw

If you want to predict use the right numbers. APC never got 7.5 million votes from SS, SE, SW and NC. It's 5.6 million. Also Atiku got on 7 million from SE, SS, SW and NC.

Oga talk with facts stop cutting corners to favour your candidate.

Ttalk:


I said you are a liar. I repeat you are a lair like Peter Obi. What an insult that Yoruba Christians will vote based on religious sentiment. You are sick upstairs for trying to play the victim card.

I repeat you are a lair a shameless one. Disprove if you are not one and stop behaving like a nanny

If you think am a liar no Problem,its not what you says that i am.
Try to Sell your Candidate to the Electorates stop insulting Obi cause you are rather making him more Popular.

Superwave16320:
If Peter Peter Obi come second in this election I owe you 100K cash

Nairaland hungry billionaire

SIONKPO1:

You try but consider these factors also:
*The Buhari factor won't be there in the North
*APC'S Muslim/Muslim Ticket will cause lots of damages to their chances than good
*The Gino's are Desperate to support Obi,there will be Massive Turnout there.
*The Electorates are now More Enlightened than before,many now wants to Vote individual and Not the Party
*The forth coming Election will be too divisive(Northern Muslims will most likely want to Vote for Atiku,the Yoruba Muslims will massively Vote for BAT,while the Yoruba christians,and the S/S and S/E will like give obi their Votes
*The poor performance of Pmb will affect the chances of ApC At the polls
*There will be Lots of Betrayals
laslas,Everybody should get their PVC ready and plan to Vote during the forthcoming Election.

Let me tackle your observations one by one...
Buhari factor truly is no more there that's why tinubu should inherit half of 15 mil votes afterall atiku inherited almost all gej votes.the truth is some buharists will still vote tinubu on the orders of buhari..

Mm ticket will cause problem but not as much as expected because its a three horse race.obi has reduced the damage and again most of those angered by mm are in ss/se/Christian dominated nc that won't ordinarily vote tinubu.
What is Gino's?
Poor performance of buhari won't affect much afterall buhari with a woeful performance won easily.a lot of Nigerians dont care about performance.what's the guarantee that obi or atiku will perform?

They will be lot of betrayals but it will least affect tinubu because he has surrounded himself with core loyallists like buhari,accommodated all,he is not depending on strangers like obi and atiku who are rolling with unstable forces.they have already started betraying atiku.

garfield1:


Tinubu will get at least half of Buhari votes.out of that 15 mil,half is apc.half is buharists afterall atiku inherited gej 12 mil votes

Do you know how Politics is played up North?
A Northern Muslim Trusts a Northern Christian more than A Yoruba Muslim.
*The Northerners are king of Politics,they understands fairness and Equity.
*Mark my Word APC was only used as a platform for Pmb to win
*There is no way Northerners will see atiku and Madugu and then Vote BAT.
*Madugu is more Popular amongst the Low income Earners while Atiku Elevated so many politicians of northern. extraction.
**Buhari no dey forget or forgive ooo

SIONKPO1:

If you think am a liar no Problem,its not what you says that i am.
Try to Sell your Candidate to the Electorates stop insulting Obi cause you are rather making him more Popular.

Just like you are making Tinubu popular with daily insults you and your IPOB hate filled with no manners rain daily on Tinubu.

When we told you that your hate will backfire you thought it was a joke.

Now the Nortn will take revenge on your 7 years of abuse of northerners and calling their illustrious son a cloned man. You will receive the same treatment from the South West for calling our leaders right from Awolowo, to MKO to Tinubu names.

You are faced with the reality you now wanted to hide under the region to claim Yoruba Christian support, dead on arrival, go and vote for you Pandora in peace and stop attaching Yoruba to your failed presidential project

SIONKPO1:

Do you know how Politics is played up North?
A Northern Muslim Trusts a Northern Christian more than A Yoruba Muslim.
*The Northerners are king of Politics,they understands fairness and Equity.
*Mark my Word APC was only used as a platform for Pmb to win
*There is no way Northerners will see atiku and Madugu and then Vote BAT.
*Madugu is more Popular amongst the Low income Earners while Atiku Elevated so many politicians of northern. extraction.
**Buhari no dey forget or forgive ooo

Since northerners love fairness,then they will give it to tinubu and south afterall its pur turn and tinubu supported the north.
Tinubu choosing shettima will make him attractive to some fanatic Muslims..
Atiku has never really been popular up north.after buhari,its kwankwaso but from my observation,a lot of northerners are backing tinubu also.the northerners are like igbos,they dont pretend.they tell you their mind straight up..
Truly,atiku is popular among political elites most of who aren't popular and dont command votes.tinubu is popular among politicians who command votes and are on the ballot

garfield1:


Let me tackle your observations one by one...
Buhari factor truly is no more there that's why tinubu should inherit half of 15 mil votes afterall atiku inherited almost all gej votes.the truth is some buharists will still vote tinubu on the orders of buhari..

Mm ticket will cause problem but not as much as expected because its a three horse race.obi has reduced the damage and again most of those angered by mm are in ss/se/Christian dominated nc that won't ordinarily vote tinubu.
What is Gino's?
Poor performance of buhari won't affect much afterall buhari with a woeful performance won easily.a lot of Nigerians dont care about performance.what's the guarantee that obi or atiku will perform?

They will be lot of betrayals but it will least affect tinubu because he has surrounded himself with core loyallists like buhari,accommodated all,he is not depending on strangers like obi and atiku who are rolling with unstable forces.they have already started betraying atiku.

Calm down
So you think Madugu will lose Kano,Jigawa?
I interacts everyday with poor local Hausa's,it will be very Difficult for them to overwhelmingly support BAT
*Who told you that Buhari will support BAT,pmb is called wicked man by the Hausa's in Katsina state.

SIONKPO1:

Calm down
So you think Madugu will lose Kano,Jigawa?
I interacts everyday with poor local Hausa's,it will be very Difficult for them to overwhelmingly support BAT
*Who told you that Buhari will support BAT,pmb is called wicked man by the Hausa's in Katsina state.

How can madugu lose kano? I can never say so na.he will win kano followed by tinubu.jigawa will be divided among the three.

Buhari is indirectly supporting tinubu from his body language and even if he doesnt,tinubu has put plans in place..
The north is not overwhelmingly supporting any candidate,they are divided and all tinubu needs is 30%

garfield1:


Since northerners love fairness,then they will give it to tinubu and south afterall its pur turn and tinubu supported the north.
Tinubu choosing shettima will make him attractive to some fanatic Muslims..
Atiku has never really been popular up north.after buhari,its kwankwaso but from my observation,a lot of northerners are backing tinubu also.the northerners are like igbos,they dont pretend.they tell you their mind straight up..
Truly,atiku is popular among political elites most of who aren't popular and dont command votes.tinubu is popular among politicians who command votes and are on the ballot

APC power brokers up north set up BAT by giving A Muslim/Muslim ticket,why do you thing that they are not making noise.

ImmaculateJOE:

Time will tell..

All I know is that Obi is will win between 12-14 states...

That more than one third of the entire states..

He will not even win Anambra State.

Ttalk:


Just like you are making Tinubu popular with daily insults you and your IPOB hate filled with no manners rain daily on Tinubu.

When we told you that your hate will backfire you thought it was a joke.

Now the Nortn will take revenge on your 7 years of abuse of northerners and calling their illustrious son a cloned man. You will receive the same treatment from the South West for calling our leaders right from Awolowo, to MKO to Tinubu names.

You are faced with the reality you now wanted to hide under the region to claim Yoruba Christian support, dead on arrival, go and vote for you Pandora in peace and stop attaching Yoruba to your failed presidential project

The funny thing is that you are not a Christian and am not an Igbo person .
And I have consistently spoken against the actions of IPOB and the Arrogance of the average Igbo.
Can you show me where I insulted your Candidate.
Mr Man Grow up support your Candidate in peace

SIONKPO1:

APC power brokers up north set up BAT by giving A Muslim/Muslim ticket,why do you thing that they are not making noise.

Quite obvious you are myopic in political issues? Muslim Muslim ticket is the choice of Northern Nigeria, sure bet.

Eye done open, who will support Atiku in the North, so Igbo man will take over after one term?, as for Peter Obi, he is not in the equation.

SIONKPO1:

APC power brokers up north set up BAT by giving A Muslim/Muslim ticket,why do you thing that they are not making noise.

There's no any setup anywhere. I'm deep in politics and understand Nigeria politics. It is only a novice that would think a governor on the ballot will sabotage his election for Atiku.

I have people in Adamawa even in Atiku University. The northerners don't like Atiku even in his NE, Tinubu will get good number of votes. Stop your emotion filled analysis, it's not selling here