Lessons From the U.S. Civil War Show Why Ukraine Can't Win | Opinion

https://www.newsweek.com/lessons-us-civil-war-show-why-ukraine-cant-win-opinion-1764992


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OPINION
RUSSIA
RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
UKRAINE
ABRAHAM LINCOLN

During the early years of America's Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln sought a limited conflict against people he still regarded as fellow countrymen and with whom he sought reconciliation. Only after three years of stalemate did he turn to "Unconditional Surrender Grant," who in turn unleashed General William Tecumseh Sherman to "make Georgia howl" and help bring the war to its decisively violent conclusion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin waited only six months before switching from a special military operation to full scale war against Ukraine. Putin's initial assault was limited to barely 150,000 troops. He expected a quick victory followed by negotiations on his principal concerns: Russian control of Crimea, Ukrainian neutrality, and autonomy for the Russian population in the Donbas, but he was wrong. Putin had not counted on Ukraine's stiff resistance or the West's massive military and economic intervention. Faced with a new situation, Putin changed his strategy. Now he is about to unleash his own General Sherman and make Ukraine howl.


Last month Putin gave General Sergey Surovikin overall command of Russia's war in the Ukraine. Surovikin comes from the technologically sophisticated Aerospace Forces, but has fought on the ground in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria where he is credited with saving the Assad regime. Surovikin has stated publicly that there will be no half measures in Ukraine. Instead, he has begun to methodically destroy Ukraine's infrastructure with precision missile attacks.

Armies need railroads and while Sherman systematically tore up the tracks leading to Atlanta, Surovikin is destroying the electricity grid which powers Ukrainian railroads. This has left Ukrainian cities cold and dark, but Surovikin seems to agree with Sherman that "war is cruelty, and you cannot refine it."

Russia has now put its economy on a war footing, called up the reserves, and assembled hundreds of thousands of troops, including both conscripts and volunteers. This army is equipped with Russia's most sophisticated weapons, and contrary to much Western reporting, is far from demoralized. Ukraine on the other hand has exhausted its armories and is totally dependent on Western military support to continue the war. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley noted last week, Ukraine has done about all it can.

READ MORE

Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer.

As the West did in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, we are stumbling into another optional, open-ended military commitment. Ukrainian troops are being trained in Europe. Western defense contractors are already maintaining Ukrainian military equipment and operating the HIMAR missile systems. Active-duty American military personnel are now in Ukraine to monitor weapons deliveries. As the Russian offensive gains momentum, we expect loud voices to call for sending ever-more advanced weapons and eventually NATO boots on the ground to defend Ukraine. These voices should be unambiguously rejected for many reasons. Here are a few.

Generations of Western leaders worked successfully to avoid direct military conflict with the Soviet Union. They recognized that, unlike Moscow, the West has very little strategic interest in who controls Donetsk. They were certainly unwilling to risk a nuclear war for Kharkiv. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and the alliance has no obligation to defend it. Nor has Putin threatened any NATO member, but he has made clear that any foreign troops entering Ukraine will be treated as enemy combatants. Sending NATO troops into the Ukraine would thus turn our proxy war with Russia into a real war with the world's largest nuclear power.

Some have presented this conflict as a morality play, between good and evil, but the reality is more complex. Ukraine is no flourishing democracy. It is an impoverished, corrupt, one-party state with extensive censorship, where opposition newspapers and political parties have been shut down. Before the war, far right Ukrainian nationalist groups like the Azov Brigade were soundly condemned by the U.S. Congress. Kiev's determined campaign against the Russian language is analogous to the Canadian government trying to ban French in Quebec. Ukrainian shells have killed hundreds of civilians in the Donbas and there are emerging reports of Ukrainian war crimes. The truly moral course of action would be to end this war with negotiations rather than prolong the suffering the Ukrainian people in a conflict they are unlikely to win without risking American lives.

And then there is always the unexpected turn of events where tensions in one region compound and spill over into another. There is a growing possibility of Iran launching a preemptive military strike on Israel. The revolutionary regime in Iran is facing an increasingly serious popular revolt. A new government in Israel is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The JCPOA is dying and with it any hope of sanctions relief for Iran's failing economy. A war would unite Iran's population in a patriotic struggle, damage Israel's ability to strike Iran, and pressure the West to negotiate an end to sanctions.

There is little doubt that the United States would be drawn into any conflict between Israel and Iran. What worries us is that Iran has been supplying Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine and Moscow might feel obliged to come to the aid of its allies in Tehran. That sort of domino effect is precisely what started the First World War. Who expected that the assassination of an Austrian grand duke by a Serbian anarchist in Bosnia would lead to thousands of Americans dying in France? We do not need a replay.

Perhaps we are wrong. Perhaps there will not be a Russian winter offensive or perhaps the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to stop it. However, if we are correct and February finds General Surovikin at the gates of Kiev, we need to have soberly considered and honestly debated as a nation and an alliance the extent of our commitment to Ukraine and what risks we are willing accept to our own security.



Note

David H. Rundell is a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads.

Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former Political Advisor to the U.S. Central Command. He served for 15 years in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall


So much going on there

That means prophesy of TB Joshua is about to happen soon

In a video address on Wednesday, EU Commission head Ursula Von der Leyen said that 100,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed. However a spokesperson for the EU Commission later clarified that this was a mistake, and the figure referred to those both killed and injured.
3 days ago
Ukraine war: Zelensky aide reveals up to 13,000 war dead - BBC News
www.bbc.com › world-europe-63829973
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PEACE IS WHAT THE WORLD NEEDS... I.O.T

OGIBRA:
PEACE IS WHAT THE WORLD NEEDS...
I.O.T

amen.

Saudi like China more than USA look at how the world now hates Biden because Biden is the Satan associate that wants to bring world War three....

Bloomberg UK
Using less power is becoming more popular.

The UK’s Push to Cut Energy Use Is Focused On Four Hours a Day
bloomberg.com

Even Nigeria would not have won the civil war without the help of soviet union, Egypt, Britain and OAU

Ukraine Christianised and gave birth to Russia and is Russia’s Spiritual Father

Ukraine will win no matter the odds against it

Christistruth00:
Ukraine Christianised and gave birth to Russia and is Russia’s Spiritual Father

Ukraine will win no matter the odds against it

Lies.

Kingsnairaland:






https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUw9jP906VI

T B Joshua is a False Prophet

Christistruth00:


T B Joshua is a False Prophet

Only God knows in few years time when Russia wins don't come and say Russia won because they were bigger than Ukraine.

NEWSMAX POLL: 55% of Americans feel the pain of rising prices. https:///3Y4hugQ $$$ If you are in USA and your retirement saving aren’t in Defense industrial corporations now is the time to transfer it

Ukraine victory is inevitable know this and know peace

Kingsnairaland:
Lessons From the U.S. Civil War Show Why Ukraine Can't Win | Opinion

https://www.newsweek.com/lessons-us-civil-war-show-why-ukraine-cant-win-opinion-1764992


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OPINION
RUSSIA
RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
UKRAINE
ABRAHAM LINCOLN

During the early years of America's Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln sought a limited conflict against people he still regarded as fellow countrymen and with whom he sought reconciliation. Only after three years of stalemate did he turn to "Unconditional Surrender Grant," who in turn unleashed General William Tecumseh Sherman to "make Georgia howl" and help bring the war to its decisively violent conclusion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin waited only six months before switching from a special military operation to full scale war against Ukraine. Putin's initial assault was limited to barely 150,000 troops. He expected a quick victory followed by negotiations on his principal concerns: Russian control of Crimea, Ukrainian neutrality, and autonomy for the Russian population in the Donbas, but he was wrong. Putin had not counted on Ukraine's stiff resistance or the West's massive military and economic intervention. Faced with a new situation, Putin changed his strategy. Now he is about to unleash his own General Sherman and make Ukraine howl.


Last month Putin gave General Sergey Surovikin overall command of Russia's war in the Ukraine. Surovikin comes from the technologically sophisticated Aerospace Forces, but has fought on the ground in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria where he is credited with saving the Assad regime. Surovikin has stated publicly that there will be no half measures in Ukraine. Instead, he has begun to methodically destroy Ukraine's infrastructure with precision missile attacks.

Armies need railroads and while Sherman systematically tore up the tracks leading to Atlanta, Surovikin is destroying the electricity grid which powers Ukrainian railroads. This has left Ukrainian cities cold and dark, but Surovikin seems to agree with Sherman that "war is cruelty, and you cannot refine it."

Russia has now put its economy on a war footing, called up the reserves, and assembled hundreds of thousands of troops, including both conscripts and volunteers. This army is equipped with Russia's most sophisticated weapons, and contrary to much Western reporting, is far from demoralized. Ukraine on the other hand has exhausted its armories and is totally dependent on Western military support to continue the war. As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley noted last week, Ukraine has done about all it can.

READ MORE

Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall and predict that without much more Western support, Russia will recapture Kharkov, Kherson, and the remainder of the Donbas by next summer.

As the West did in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, we are stumbling into another optional, open-ended military commitment. Ukrainian troops are being trained in Europe. Western defense contractors are already maintaining Ukrainian military equipment and operating the HIMAR missile systems. Active-duty American military personnel are now in Ukraine to monitor weapons deliveries. As the Russian offensive gains momentum, we expect loud voices to call for sending ever-more advanced weapons and eventually NATO boots on the ground to defend Ukraine. These voices should be unambiguously rejected for many reasons. Here are a few.

Generations of Western leaders worked successfully to avoid direct military conflict with the Soviet Union. They recognized that, unlike Moscow, the West has very little strategic interest in who controls Donetsk. They were certainly unwilling to risk a nuclear war for Kharkiv. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and the alliance has no obligation to defend it. Nor has Putin threatened any NATO member, but he has made clear that any foreign troops entering Ukraine will be treated as enemy combatants. Sending NATO troops into the Ukraine would thus turn our proxy war with Russia into a real war with the world's largest nuclear power.

Some have presented this conflict as a morality play, between good and evil, but the reality is more complex. Ukraine is no flourishing democracy. It is an impoverished, corrupt, one-party state with extensive censorship, where opposition newspapers and political parties have been shut down. Before the war, far right Ukrainian nationalist groups like the Azov Brigade were soundly condemned by the U.S. Congress. Kiev's determined campaign against the Russian language is analogous to the Canadian government trying to ban French in Quebec. Ukrainian shells have killed hundreds of civilians in the Donbas and there are emerging reports of Ukrainian war crimes. The truly moral course of action would be to end this war with negotiations rather than prolong the suffering the Ukrainian people in a conflict they are unlikely to win without risking American lives.

And then there is always the unexpected turn of events where tensions in one region compound and spill over into another. There is a growing possibility of Iran launching a preemptive military strike on Israel. The revolutionary regime in Iran is facing an increasingly serious popular revolt. A new government in Israel is determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The JCPOA is dying and with it any hope of sanctions relief for Iran's failing economy. A war would unite Iran's population in a patriotic struggle, damage Israel's ability to strike Iran, and pressure the West to negotiate an end to sanctions.

There is little doubt that the United States would be drawn into any conflict between Israel and Iran. What worries us is that Iran has been supplying Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine and Moscow might feel obliged to come to the aid of its allies in Tehran. That sort of domino effect is precisely what started the First World War. Who expected that the assassination of an Austrian grand duke by a Serbian anarchist in Bosnia would lead to thousands of Americans dying in France? We do not need a replay.

Perhaps we are wrong. Perhaps there will not be a Russian winter offensive or perhaps the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to stop it. However, if we are correct and February finds General Surovikin at the gates of Kiev, we need to have soberly considered and honestly debated as a nation and an alliance the extent of our commitment to Ukraine and what risks we are willing accept to our own security.



Note

David H. Rundell is a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the author of Vision or Mirage, Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads.

Ambassador Michael Gfoeller is a former Political Advisor to the U.S. Central Command. He served for 15 years in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

Hmmm
Quiet interesting!

Obc1234:
Ukraine victory is inevitable know this and know peace

I know you are in pains.

UKRAINE HAS NEVER PLANNED TO WIN RUSSIA
AND RUSSIA, THE WITCH, MUST NEVER WIN.
RUSSIA IS A WICKED MOTHER THAT MUST NEVER SLEEP.

Everything is I know you are pained, useless people everywhere how does that contribute to my happiness, you don't know how war works let them fight for 50 years Russia will loose the if you win military will you win the people's minds I doubt Russia will even win the military aspect of the war

Kingsnairaland:
I know you are in pains.

Some replies from the opinion writers of the article you posted:

More:

Obc1234:
Everything is I know you are pained, useless people everywhere how does that contribute to my happiness, you don't know how war works let them fight for 50 years Russia will loose the if you win military will you win the people's minds I doubt Russia will even win the military aspect of the war

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/u-s-ukraine-milley-negotiations-00066777


The scramble follows comments last week by Gen. Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily,


You are wiser than USA generals that said Ukraine can't achieve military victory

I clap for you

Ibrahimcoomasie:
More:

you listen to lies from cnn

Russia is independent they produce there own weapons by themselves they won the second world War by themselves


Russia made the first hypersonic weapons before USA even dream of making failed ones

Ask yourselves how can someone that you claim depends on you build hypersonic weapons before you lol

Wake up from Western lies it makes you feel not wise that you swallow fake news

Should I tell you how Russia was making it own weapons during world War two

Even almighty ak 47 is used world wide the most dangerous nuke belongs to Russia Satan one and two

Ibrahimcoomasie:
More:

move

Russia has their own chip factory you can Google it

The media wants you to think they are poor or need west when up till now USA still buys from Russia raw material


European countries increase Trade with Russia, despite the War and Sanctions - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
novinite.com

orisa37:
UKRAINE HAS NEVER PLANNED TO WIN RUSSIA
AND RUSSIA, THE WITCH, MUST NEVER WIN.
RUSSIA IS A WICKED MOTHER THAT MUST NEVER SLEEP.

If you suddenly decide to declare Russia an international aggressor, read these facts and figures. Over 3 million people - that's how many foreigners the US military has killed in 60 invasions of sovereign nations under the pretext of bringing "democracy"?
Cuba (1906) - ?
Nicaragua (1912) - ?
Haiti (1915) - ?
Dominican Republic (1916) - ? 29
Russia (1918) - 2,000
Japan (1945)- 246000
Philippines (1948-1953) - 160,000
Puerto Rico (1950) - 29
Korea (1950-1953) - 570
Guatemala (1954) - 100000
Lebanon (1958) - ?
Panama (1958) - 734
Laos (1959) - 3,000
Haiti (1959) - 2204
Ecuador (1960) - ?
Guatemala (1960) - ?
Dominican Republic (1965) - 2500
Vietnam (1964-1975) - ? 850132
Guatemala (1966) - ?
Indonesia (1966) - ?
Philippines (1966) - ?
Cambodia (1967) - ? 300.000
Laos (1971-1973) - ?
Nicaragua (1972) - ?
El Salvador (1977) - ? 75.000
Grenada (1983) - ?
Libya (1986) - ?
Iran (1980) - ?
Lebanon (1982) - ? 144000
Grenada (1983) - 141
Libya (1986) - 45
Honduras (1988) - ?
Iran (1988) - 290
Virgin Islands (1989) - ?
Panama (1989) - ? 734
Iraq (1991) - ?
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992 - 1995) - ? 98.000
Somalia (1992 -1994) - ? 1,000
Haiti (1994) - ? 200
Sudan (1998) - ?
Yugoslavia (1999) - 5,700
Afghanistan (2001-2021) - 103000
Iraq (2003-2011) - 690000
Iraq (2011-2017) - 170000
Liberia (2003) - 150000
Pakistan (2004) - 108000
Libya (2011) - 40000
Syria (2013) - 2286
Yemen (2015) - 11000
Cameroon (2015) - ?
Libya (2015) - 1,000
And then there were the color revolutions perpetrated (or thwarted) by the US in Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004, 2014), Kyrgyzstan (2005), Tunisia (2011), Armenia (2008, 2015), Russia (2010, 2013), Belarus (2020), and Kazakhstan (2022).
The sanctions imposed on the US for this age-old international terrorism are 0.
Judge for yourself. No politics, just numbers.

Betscoreodds:
Once Ukraine's rich black soil has firmly frozen, a massive Russian onslaught will commence. In fact, it has already begun at the important transportation hub of Bakhmut, which has become something of a Ukrainian Verdun. We expect Bakhmut to fall


So much going on there

That means prophesy of TB Joshua is about to happen soon

Lol, so winter is now the excuse of Russia?
When Putin invaded in February, the soil wasn't hard abi,
You guys never seems to amazed me,
Battles are won on the battle Field not prophesies

Kingsnairaland:


https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/u-s-ukraine-milley-negotiations-00066777


The scramble follows comments last week by Gen. Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs chair. The four-star general said during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily,


You are wiser than USA generals that said Ukraine can't achieve military victory

I clap for you

See Ukraine is never going to win a war with Russia's
No no-no, just the way Vietnam was never going to defeat the USA, just the same way Afghanistan was never going to defeat the Soviet Union, but you see the more longer the war drags the more it becomes more expensive in terms of life and resources, for the invading forces,
Soon the Russian will be weary, soon the sanctions will start to bite, soon the Russian regime won't be able to hide on the shadow of a special military operation, Putin will mobilise more men soon
Everything crumbles

Kingsnairaland:
you listen to lies from cnn

Russia is independent they produce there own weapons by themselves they won the second world War by themselves


Russia made the first hypersonic weapons before USA even dream of making failed ones

Ask yourselves how can someone that you claim depends on you build hypersonic weapons before you lol

Wake up from Western lies it makes you feel not wise that you swallow fake news

Should I tell you how Russia was making it own weapons during world War two

Even almighty ak 47 is used world wide the most dangerous nuke belongs to Russia Satan one and two

Dude did you know during the hay days of the cold war between the USA and the Soviet Union
Which cumulated into the space war.
that the Soviet Union was the early pioneer of space technology, and was the first to launch an artificial sartilite and the First to put a man into space,
Then the USA stated when the NASA started it's Apollo program and put a man into the moon and won the space war, then they develop GPS
Just because the Soviet were the earlier power of space technology, those not mean they are now.

I'm not a supporter of war
But Ukraine wining the Russians in the battlefield is all a pipe dream

Kingsnairaland:


Only God knows in few years time when Russia wins don't come and say Russia won because they were bigger than Ukraine.

Who Told You That Russia Will Win This War? Okay Ur Heart Is Telling You That Ukraine Is A Fly To Russia Abi?

Kingsnairaland:
Saudi like China more than USA look at how the world now hates Biden because Biden is the Satan associate that wants to bring world War three....

Shut Up, Stop Saying What U Don't Know. Who Told You That Biden Need Third World War? Better Do Research Before Writing Nonsense, Okay? America Doesn't Need Third World War To Be Fought. If You Listen To American News You Will Discover That America Is Afraid Of Third World War. Don't You Know That Third World War Would Be War Of Armageddon? The War Will Be Different From The First World War & The Second World War.