Donsheddy:


Nice we are getting somewhere.....
What's the total vote cast you're expecting from this region?

Do the math and split it between the three candidates

Then we move to other region one after the other

7.5 mil votes.tinubu 2 mil,atiku 2 mil,kwankwaso 1.3 mil,obi 200k

If the Northerners failed to make Atiku the president I'm 2023 then they are fools.

The southerners especially the yorubas taught they are smarters than us.

First it was YarAdua, he died in the office when the then southern president was aware of his health issue. Did that mago mago just to make another Southerner President after his death.

Second it is Buhari ... Who is always sick throughout the 8 years now.

For those saying Atiku is this Atiku is that. We are waiting ...

This is the only Chance for the North to be well represented.

By January everything will be clearer.

Voting for 3. reasons

1. It will represent and Unite Nigeria better

2. He is competent and appears to understand the problem better.

3. If the NE has their time to lead is not bad follow by SE.

garfield1:


7.5 mil votes.tinubu 2 mil,atiku 2 mil,kwankwaso 1.3 mil,obi 200k

7.5 that's too poor accept you're saying there will be voters aparthy in that region....

Average vote cast In that region is between 9million to 10milliom


Anyways over to the North East

How do you think the vote will be shared among the three candidates.....

Mind you this region swing with N.W



Tinubu, Atiku and kwankwanso

sangresan:


This is the most ridiculous comment I have ever read on Nairaland. I doubt you even know Osun State.

Go to Osun towns and villages to ask whether they know Obi. So, the formidable PDP structure in the state will suddenly collapse between now and February? You think majority of Nigerian voters just find themselves voting for particular candidates and political parties without being mobilized by party agents and officials? You obviously belong to the indomie generation'.

A lot of you will really change your perception about the Nigerian elections after 2023
So in your warped assertion, the pdp will win the whole of SE in February 2023 Cos traditionally they have always voted pdp ?so in your warped head you think ppl vote cos they belong to a particular party or what? What stupid structures are you talking about?Atiku will not get even up to 8% of the votes in osun cos all his southern votes now belongs to Peter obi and that’s a clear fact.
And there’s nothing the governor or any other governor from any southern state can do about it.
If wike likes let him tomorrow decide to declare for Atiku , Rivers state will vote overwhelmingly for Peter obi.

blank:


Are you sure Southeast don't have the numbers?

This is 2011 election results. See the states with over 1m people who voted.

Well compare it to 2019 .


Also the election apathy is growing in south east due to demand for Biafra and unknown gunmen actions with people like Ekpa declaring no election in east .

oyebanji44:
Atiku cannot win osun state cos of what fulani did to them ...

Kwara and osun state is for tinubu..

At least, 18 states are already earmarked for tinubu

useless projections

Obi is winning Delta

this i know

donphilopus:
Even though Tinubu was cheated in this projection, he still got the highest states. That shows no matter what happens during the election, Tinubu would win.

They claimed Kwara is too close to call whereas Tinubu would win there effortlessly without any other candidate coming close. If Aliero isn't on the senatorial ballot, Tinubu should win Kebbi. As for Kano, if Kwankwaso is on the ballot, Tinubu should come second but if he should collapse his structure for Tinubu, APC should clear there.

There are at least 6 states given to Atiku that he wouldn't win. Atiku can't win Bayelsa state, Rivers would be very difficult. He's finding it hard in Gombe. Kaduna South which should ordinarily give him votes would be divided. They're stuck between Obi and Atiku. Tinubu would have the advantage here. How on earth would he win FCT and Osun? Tinubu should win three to four of these states plus Kwara and Kebbi (in the absence of Aliero on the ballot) and maybe Kano. Who's still doubting Tinubu's Presidency?

All of you that want tinubu to rule this country after buhari

That's how your life and generation will be

From one known calamity to another known calamity

kk2027:
Though this analysis is more like agbado/cassava analysis. However it is worthy to note that:


They're no more calling us online noisemakers and dismissing us as twitter party.

They are no more calling us "4 people twitting in a room"

Infact they have even started assigning us some states that we'll win


Day after day, the reality is dawning on everyone that the youths have decided to take back their country


God bless Obidatti

God bless Nigeria youths

Nigeria shall be great again in our lifetime

No mind these clowns.. tinubu win 18 states? Person wey no go win up to 7 states. I laugh in spanish.

HydraFeeds:


Well compare it to 2019 .


Also the election apathy is growing in south east due to demand for Biafra and unknown gunmen actions with people like Ekpa declaring no election in east .

Your question should be who was on the ballot....
Even in the south south there was voters aparthy....
Total vote caste from each States also reduce but 40% from previous election....
Rivers State.
AKS...
Delta.
Bayelsa and
Cross River....

Two northern candidate was on the ballot so the interests of this region wasn't really in the ballot....

So it wasn't entire just the south east that's to tell you that this two region swing in same direction

donphilopus:
Even though Tinubu was cheated in this projection, he still got the highest states. That shows no matter what happens during the election, Tinubu would win.

They claimed Kwara is too close to call whereas Tinubu would win there effortlessly without any other candidate coming close. If Aliero isn't on the senatorial ballot, Tinubu should win Kebbi. As for Kano, if Kwankwaso is on the ballot, Tinubu should come second but if he should collapse his structure for Tinubu, APC should clear there.

There are at least 6 states given to Atiku that he wouldn't win. Atiku can't win Bayelsa state, Rivers would be very difficult. He's finding it hard in Gombe. Kaduna South which should ordinarily give him votes would be divided. They're stuck between Obi and Atiku. Tinubu would have the advantage here. How on earth would he win FCT and Osun? Tinubu should win three to four of these states plus Kwara and Kebbi (in the absence of Aliero on the ballot) and maybe Kano. Who's still doubting Tinubu's Presidency?

Dreamer the calculator...u are speaking in the rubbish.

Donsheddy:


7.5 that's too poor accept you're saying there will be voters aparthy in that region....

Average vote cast In that region is between 9million to 10milliom


Anyways over to the North East

How do you think the vote will be shared among the three candidates.....

Mind you this region swing with N.W



Tinubu, Atiku and kwankwanso

Regions where their sons are not on the ballot will have less turnout.in 2015,nw turnout was 9 mil.in 2019,it reduced to 8 mil.with buhari not on the ballot and kwankwaso not on a major platform,7.5 is the maximum.

Ne/nw voted together because of buhari and during the first republic....ne have two of their sons on the ballot so turnout should be high.let's use 5 million.tinubu 2.2,atiku 2.2 obi 300k,kwankwaso 300k

garfield1:


Regions where their sons are not on the ballot will have less turnout.in 2015,nw turnout was 9 mil.in 2019,it reduced to 8 mil.with buhari not on the ballot and kwankwaso not on a major platform,7.5 is the maximum.

Ne/nw voted together because of buhari and during the first republic....ne have two of their sons on the ballot so turnout should be high.let's use 5 million.tinubu 2.2,atiku 2.2 obi 300k,kwankwaso 300k

Nice....

Over to S.W
And N.C


Split the vote between the leading candidates

NONSENE..OBI WILL NOT WIN AN Y STATE.

Donsheddy:


Your question should be who was on the ballot....
Even in the south south there was voters aparthy....
Total vote caste from each States also reduce but 40% from previous election....
Rivers State.
AKS...
Delta.
Bayelsa and
Cross River....

Two northern candidate was on the ballot so the interests of this region wasn't really in the ballot....

So it wasn't entire just the south east that's to tell you that this two region swing in same direction

compare it with 2015 when jonathan was contesting and see that there’s no much difference in the data .

Donsheddy:


Nice....

Over to S.W
And N.C


Split the vote between the leading candidates

Sw turnout should be a little higher.it was 4 mil in the previous election but should be at least 5 mil.
Tinubu 2.7 mil,obi 1.2 mil,atiku 1 mil,kwankwaso 100k

Nc is not on the ballot so turnout should remain at 4 mil.tinubu 1.4 mil,obi 1.3,atiku 900k,kwankwaso 400k.

garfield1:


Sw turnout should be a little higher.it was 4 mil in the previous election but should be at least 5 mil.
Tinubu 2.7 mil,obi 1.2 mil,atiku 1 mil,kwankwaso 100k

Nc is not on the ballot so turnout should remain at 4 mil.tinubu 1.4 mil,obi 1.3,atiku 900k,kwankwaso 400k.

Okay good south east and south south

Peacecore:
It won't actually work like that outrightly. Remember that Buhari won when APC has a strong grip of the state. Now that PDP is the ruling party, and Obi on the ballot. It will be hard for APC to win except Edo north whr Oshiomole is vying to represent in the Senate. Anyone that wins Edo won't even have up to 10k margin.

in 2019, atiku won buhari in edo with 5000 vote. even as people were complaining of the economy.
This time, nobody wants to vote for another fulani man for another 8yrs.
Obaseki can not influence anything as he could not influence for buhari in 2019. Obaseki won in 2020 with 10% of total vote. 55% to 45%.
That trends still continue.
Obi and atiku will still share the 55%
Apc still maintain that 45% since 2015.
We that has be voting for oshomole since 2007 will still continue.
While pdp will share their vote btw obi and atiku

Donsheddy:



Okay good south east and south south

Se and ss turnout will be high for obvious reasons...

For se,4 mil.obi 2.7 mil,atiku 700k,tinubu 600k..
For ss,5 mil turnout.atiku 1.9 mil,obi 1.8 mil,tinubu 1.3 mil

garfield1:


Se and ss turnout will be high for obvious reasons...

For se,4 mil.obi 2.7 mil,atiku 700k,tinubu 600k..
For ss,5 mil turnout.atiku 1.9 mil,obi 1.8 mil,tinubu 1.3 mil

Sorry to say where is the 600k coming out from for tinubu......

1.3million from which part of the south south please.....

Even Buhari did not get such amount of vote...
Now those vote he got is under contention with pdp cus labour party is retaining all gej vote that's if truly you're in this region cus I'm currently in rivers state.....
And I know for my uncle's who are party faithfuls to Pdp in Enugu are all rooting for l.p....
That's why I'm wondering where the 600k east will come from


Maybe you've forgotten south east give as high as 80% vote cast to there preferred candidate and it won't be any different this time....

I did not contest other regions cus Im not there and I don't know the mood of voters in that region.....

Less we forget hunger is also on ground....
Which will affect the ruling party especially in the south

The current mood the ibos, do they look like people that want to vote against Peter Obi?
A lot of these polls simply use the analysis of "X state has a PDP governor, hence X state will vote Atiku". That is unrealistic analysis.
If you want to analyse, look at what the voters are saying.
Southeast and South-South are massively voting Obi. Kwara, Osun, Kogi, Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo are firmly for Tinubu. Lagos is marginally for Tinubu while Obi will have a good showing.
Up north, Obi will have next to nothing. Atiku and Tinubu will share the North.
Obi will have some votes in plateau, benue, parts of kaduna south.
Overall, Tinubu is projected to win, but Atiku can cause a scare if he can sway the north more. It is only Obi I don't see winning, because he just can't get votes from the largest voting bloc either on account of personality or party

HydraFeeds:
yoruba didn’t vote Obj in 1999 ,politics is a game of interest….as you can see that Soludo is even against Obi and told Atiku yesterday that there are two front runners for the coming election .

wonder233:
The current mood the ibos, do they look like people that want to vote against Peter Obi?
A lot of these polls simply use the analysis of "X state has a PDP governor, hence X state will vote Atiku". That is unrealistic analysis.
If you want to analyse, look at what the voters are saying.
Southeast and South-South are massively voting Obi. Kwara, Osun, Kogi, Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo are firmly for Tinubu. Lagos is marginally for Tinubu while Obi will have a good showing.
Up north, Obi will have next to nothing. Atiku and Tinubu will share the North.
Obi will have some votes in plateau, benue, parts of kaduna south.
Overall, Tinubu is projected to win, but Atiku can cause a scare if he can sway the north more. It is only Obi I don't see winning, because he just can't get votes from the largest voting bloc either on account of personality or party

Writing kwankwanso off....
Don't forget s.w don't give block votes

The ignorance here is that Kwakwaso factor

Donsheddy:


Sorry to say where is the 600k coming out from for tinubu......

1.3million from which part of the south south please.....

Even Buhari did not get such amount of vote...
Now those vote he got is under contention with pdp cus labour party is retaining all gej vote that's if truly you're in this region cus I'm currently in rivers state.....
And I know for my uncle's who are party faithfuls to Pdp in Enugu are all rooting for l.p....
That's why I'm wondering where the 600k east will come from


Maybe you've forgotten south east give as high as 80% vote cast to there preferred candidate and it won't be any different this time....

I did not contest other regions cus Im not there and I don't know the mood of voters in that region.....

Less we forget hunger is also on ground....
Which will affect the ruling party especially in the south

Tinubu is a southerner so he will get more votes than buhari.hunger has alwats been there even in 2019.infact,a lot will sell their botes
Tinubu will get 300k in edo,250k in delta,200k in rivers,200k in bayelsa,200k in crs and 200k in aks...
In se,he will get 200k in IMO,200k in ebonyi,70k in Enugu,100k in abia,30k in anbambra

This people have just exposed where they would Concentrate on their rigging plans. INEC should not make reasonable Nigerians hate them forever. No room for dummies in Aso Rock again. We have had enough.

garfield1:


Tinubu is a southerner so he will get more votes than buhari.hunger has alwats been there even in 2019.infact,a lot will sell their botes
Tinubu will get 300k in edo,250k in delta,200k in rivers,200k in bayelsa,200k in crs and 200k in aks...
In se,he will get 200k in IMO,200k in ebonyi,70k in Enugu,100k in abia,30k in anbambra

I wouldn't want to drag it futher but February is just here.....

200k I'm bayelsa is as good as wining....
200k in rivers what's the total vote of rivers even atiku can't boast of 100k from Rivers as it stands....
200k in aks laughable.....

200k in imo how....
Don't forget the current governor came a distant 4th in the election he contested....
What's the voting power of imo....

The best Apc can get in the east is as much as 200k in total and that is me being generous....
P.o is on the ballot.....

In rivers state....
APC will be lucky to get up to 50k as it stands....

wonder233:
The current mood the ibos, do they look like people that want to vote against Peter Obi?
A lot of these polls simply use the analysis of "X state has a PDP governor, hence X state will vote Atiku". That is unrealistic analysis.
If you want to analyse, look at what the voters are saying.
Southeast and South-South are massively voting Obi. Kwara, Osun, Kogi, Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo are firmly for Tinubu. Lagos is marginally for Tinubu while Obi will have a good showing.
Up north, Obi will have next to nothing. Atiku and Tinubu will share the North.
Obi will have some votes in plateau, benue, parts of kaduna south.
Overall, Tinubu is projected to win, but Atiku can cause a scare if he can sway the north more. It is only Obi I don't see winning, because he just can't get votes from the largest voting bloc either on account of personality or party

you can not really analyze based on what few people are saying and I’m sure you can’t interview 50% of voters in a region before you draw your conclusion . Analysis can be done using various data not only limited to what people are saying ,history is a datum,current happenings(UGM)is also a datum ,region traditional and religious leadership approval is also a datum (many people are swayed by what their pastor ,imam or king says). If Soludo is saying don’t vote Obi ,there are many people that won’t vote him .

SBM did not revealed their data ,because state like Anambra is APGA and IMO apc but Obi was projected to win ,state like Gombe is APC but Atiku was projected to win and etc,so it’s not entirely a state that the party govern ,tribalism is also included like projecting Obi to win SE and Atiku most North .

The SE might go for Obi but Atiku will definitely win states there and Tinubu perform better than Buhari did in 2019 especially in IMO and Ebonyi but remember that South South doesn’t always align with SouthEast and APC will perform well in states like Rivers ,Cross rivers Delta,Bayelsa and Edo .

I agree that Tinubu is projected to win considering all available data like incumbency might ,religion ,tribe ,structure and resources like money but it’s all projections and life has a way of surprising us . Till Feb

Donsheddy:


I wouldn't want to drag it futher but February is just here.....

200k I'm bayelsa is as good as wining....
200k in rivers what's the total vote of rivers even atiku can't boast of 100k from Rivers as it stands....
200k in aks laughable.....

200k in imo how....
Don't forget the current governor came a distant 4th in the election he contested....
What's the voting power of imo....

The best Apc can get in the east is as much as 200k in total and that is me being generous....
P.o is on the ballot.....

In rivers state....
APC will be lucky to get up to 50k as it stands....

You are not being realistic.elections in se/ss are highly rigged.apc is very strong here and have experienced politicians, lp is very weak and inexperienced.

Obi cannot win bayelsa,he is out.it is between tinubu and atiku.the winner will do so narrowly.

Rivers have a voting population of 3 million.800k million can turn up,obi gets 500,tinubu 200k.dont forget buhari got 150k,tinubu with the help of magnus and asari dokubo will get more..
Aks have a voting power of 2 mil,800k can turn up.buhari got 150k here and with pdp getting divided,tinubu can get more..
IMO has a voting power of 2 mil.in 2011,they gave gej 1.2 mil.apc dominates orlu and owerri zone and hope is a clever crook,very smart.his 2bd term depends on tinubu winning so he will try to give tinubu 25% by all means though obi will win IMO.buhari got 150k here.
Buhari overall got 500k in the east.tinubu can get 600k

clowning must be a lucrative profession these days.

Atiku will win this FCT that am in? No be juju be that. If PO gets less than 60% votes cast, we will doubt the credibility.

garfield1:


You are not being realistic.elections in se/ss are highly rigged.apc is very strong here and have experienced politicians, lp is very weak and inexperienced.

Obi cannot win bayelsa,he is out.it is between tinubu and atiku.the winner will do so narrowly.

Rivers have a voting population of 3 million.800k million can turn up,obi gets 500,tinubu 200k.dont forget buhari got 150k,tinubu with the help of magnus and asari dokubo will get more..
Aks have a voting power of 2 mil,800k can turn up.buhari got 150k here and with pdp getting divided,tinubu can get more..
IMO has a voting power of 2 mil.in 2011,they gave gej 1.2 mil.apc dominates orlu and owerri zone and hope is a clever crook,very smart.his 2bd term depends on tinubu winning so he will try to give tinubu 25% by all means though obi will win IMO.buhari got 150k here.
Buhari overall got 500k in the east.tinubu can get 600k

Till February
Magnus is with sdp....
Asari ke...

We both know the region with the highest voting strength infact the account for 75% of rivers state voting strength...
The ikwerrers...
Where obio/akpor and portharcourt are more populated....
So I'm thinking where the 200k vote is coming from.....

Bayelsa will vote tinubu that plotted the removal of there son why....

P.o is winning bayelsa for sure...
I have friends in b.y keeping me updated.....

S.E election highly rigged...
Tell me something else....

With P.O on the ballot...
He's getting nothing less than 80% of votes cast in the east and expect high level of turn out of voters in the south south and southeast

Skyehigher1:
Anybody who want to predict the winners of 2023 presidential election. Asiwaju bola Ahmed tinubu will win. Atiku will be second runner up while obi is third runner up Mark my word February 25th is near. Peter obi will not Garner 3 million votes accross Nigeria . Mark it

Peter Obi will garner over 9 million votes in Nigeria.

Emir01:


PDP win Osun? You guys are thinking that this a state election. State elections are totally different from presidential election. Osun will vote massively for Asiwaju. February is here. Majority of my friends that voted for Adeleke are voting Asiwaju. 99% of those Kings are rooting for Asiwaju. You will see how Osun palace will openly endorse Asiwaju when he visits palace unlike Oyetola as governor.

Truth, I'm from Ede too , but almost all of us except me supported Adeleke but all of us are now supporting Tinubu fanatically. I'm telling you.