Penguin2:


Lol!

Let’s do some little mathematics using your own percentages and statistics…

Northwest has 22 million registered voters. Supposing they are able to do a 70% voter turnout, they will produce 15,400,000 votes. Now, divide 15,400,000 into 3 gladiators jostling for the region’s votes, that’s 5.1million for each of the gladiators. But let’s suppose Atiku will win Northwest by about 70%. 70% of 15,400,000 is about 7million votes. So let’s say Atiku wins your almighty Northwest with about 7million votes.

Now, let’s go to Southeast…
There are about 10million registered voters. Let’s suppose there’s about 60% voter turnout from the zone and not the 100% you said. That will be about 6million votes. Out of that 6million votes, Obi is likely taking about 5.7million votes or 5.5million votes at worst. So Obi wins the Southeast with about 5.7million votes.

Now, calculate the percentages that Obi will do in Southsouth, North Central and Southwest and even in Atiku’s Northeast and see if your confidence is not standing on a shaky foundation.

Hahahaaaa �. I can't stop laughing, so Obi will get up to 10% in north east? Whare is he getting the 10%?

Penguin2:


I want to ask you a simple question…

If you were from Southern Kaduna, and about 40 persons from your place were massacred and not a word from either the Federal Government or the State Government all led by APC…

Would you vote same party in an election or vote the senior brother of your killers who is most likely going to continue to shield those killing your people?

Truth is I won't vote for any of the aforementioned...if I'm in such situation. Inasmuch as I loathe them,I wouldn't want to waste my votes casting for someone who lack the geographic spread to win.
Bro, sometimes things don't just go the christians/Muslim divide.Take for example,Benue witnessed a huge massacre prior to the 2019 election but still voted Buhari massively who ended loosing to AA by just 7k
Also PDP is almost seen as a party of christians giving they usually win christians dominated areas but down south and north,an act which is not static.

Penguin2:
I just read the Thisday appraisal of the 2023 elections and their claim that Northwest is the battleground or would determine who becomes president and couldn’t help but shake my head at their clear mischief.

But I know what they are doing… they are trying to water down the effect of recent ANAP poll which projected an Obi victory as against the candidate of the owner Thisday/AriseTV Media Group which is Atiku Abubakar.

However, it is so appalling that a media platform like Thisday will deploy its platform to sell a clearly skewed narrative with no iota of reflection on the reality on ground.

For a better understanding of the reality of the 2023 elections, let’s do a very quick and brief appraisal of the different geopolitical zones in the country and how they are likely to vote to better understand why Northwest is not the battleground that Thisday claimed.

ANAP polls and other reputable polls, and reality on ground, has shown that Peter Obi is poised to sweep Southeast and Southsouth.

Now, because of Christian sentiments and the continued massacre of the people Middle Belt, these people are now understandably leaning towards an Obi candidacy which is why analysts have rightly predicted Obi to win the North Central.

Then add the votes Obi is clearly going to get from other Christian areas like Taraba, Adamawa, southern Bauchi, southern Borno and Southern Gombe in the Northeast; and southern Kaduna and southern Kebbi in the Northwest, with the votes he’s likely to get from all the states in Southwest, and you see clearly why Obi is poised to win the upcoming election at first ballot except you want to lie to yourself.

Because the truth is that whether by Obi’s making or by chance, 99% of Christians in Nigeria has taken the upcoming election very personal and are now sentimental about it.

Now, this is clearly in contrast to Tinubu who as of today is realistically only sure of votes from Southwest states and maybe Borno and Yobe in the Northeast, and Zamfara and Kaduna like Thisday rightly said.

Then there’s an Atiku who has realistically been restricted to some states in Northeast and some states in Northwest while he’s hoping to get some fraction of votes from some Southsouth states which is even looking bleak for him, because nobody talks about Atiku down South.

Kwankwaso is a Kano candidate so talking about him is an unnecessary waste of time.

So, with these things I’ve said here which are very practical and factual, tell me how the election is too close to call.

So, my conclusion is that Thisday is just being mischievous and running away from obvious truth and reality that is staring at them, like most Nigerians who are still stuck in the old ways of doing things but sooner or later, they will all come around and accept reality.

May be 70 to 80%. Other points you made are valid. Anap polls changed my perception.

asanausana91:
Hahahaaaa �. I can't stop laughing, so Obi will get up to 10% in north east? Whare is he getting the 10%?

Christian population in the NE is about 30% with concentration of them in Adamawa and Taraba. Southern Borno and Bauchi have concentration of Christian too. Gombe and Yobe are predominantly Muslim states. Even Gombe has reasonable population of Christians. Many woud vote for Atiku just as many Muslims from the region would do, others for obi.
It is reasonably to assume that obi would get 10 to 15% votes from NE.

Superwave16320:
The fool even make me feel like I am a Muslim n can't support Tinubu.

He is no fool.
Christians would still vote Tinubu and AA likewise their Muslim counterpart voting for PO.

Aiel123:

Truth is I won't vote for any of the aforementioned...if I'm in such situation. Inasmuch as I loathe them,I wouldn't want to waste my votes casting for someone who lack the geographic spread to win.
Bro, sometimes things don't just go the christians/Muslim divide.Take for example,Benue witnessed a huge massacre prior to the 2019 election but still voted Buhari massively who ended loosing to AA by just 7k
Also PDP is almost seen as a party of christians giving they usually win christians dominated areas but down south and north,an act which is not static.

So you won’t vote Atiku nor Tinubu because you are not sure they will guarantee the killing of your people…

And your alternative solution is to refrain from voting at all because you think the next candidate who is sure to guarantee your safety and safety of your people does not possess the ‘spread’?

Is that how you solve your problems?

asanausana91:
Hahahaaaa �. I can't stop laughing, so Obi will get up to 10% in north east? Whare is he getting the 10%?

ANAP poll said he did 8% in the northeast.

I know you don’t like to hear ANAP poll because it didn’t say what you like to hear but it is the authority we can refer to, for now, as far as the 2023 presidential election is concerned.

Now, add about 2% to Obi from a whopping 38% who are undecided and another whopping 24% who refused to declare their intention and you have your 10%. And you and I know that 2% deciding to vote Obi out of 62% is very much practicable, isn’t it? About 10% of that number might even decide to vote for him at the end of the day.

You wonder where the votes will come from? Taraba, Adamawa, Southern Bauchi, Southern Gombe and Southern Borno. I know you will doubt it now, but February will clear your doubt.

joyandfaith:


Christian population in the NE is about 30% with concentration of them in Adamawa and Taraba. Southern Borno and Bauchi have concentration of Christian too. Gombe and Yobe are predominantly Muslim states. Even Gombe has reasonable population of Christians. Many woud vote for Atiku just as many Muslims from the region would do, others for obi.
It is reasonably to assume that obi would get 10 to 15% votes from NE.

Tell them!

I think their mistake is that they just lump the people in the region together and assume they are all Muslims because they are ‘Northeast’ and therefore they will vote for a Muslim candidate.

They do not know some other regional exigencies that pervade in the area; that these guys are not homogeneous.

Aiel123:

He is no fool.
Christians would still vote Tinubu and AA likewise their Muslim counterpart voting for PO.

Lol!

Thank you for fighting for me

Penguin2:


Tell them!

I think their mistake is that they just lump the people in the region together and assume they are all Muslims because they are ‘Northeast’ and therefore they will vote for a Muslim candidate.

They do not know some other regional exigencies that pervade in the area; that these guys are not homogeneous.

If majority NE and southern Kaduna Christians voted gej in 2015 , Buhari wouldn't won. Northern Christians have the numbers, they also breed like their Muslim counterparts. If Obi wins NC, he would emerge winner.

joyandfaith:


If majority NE and southern Kaduna Christians voted gej in 2015 , Buhari wouldn't won. Northern Christians have the numbers, they also breed like their Muslim counterparts. If Obi wins NC, he would emerge winner.

What you need understand is that in 2015, the happenings around the country and APC propaganda made most Nigerians tired of the Jonathan government and genuinely so.

So, you wouldn’t blame the Northern Christians who voted Buhari in 2015; some southern Christians did too.

But the dynamics are different for the 2023 elections.

Penguin2:


So you won’t vote Atiku nor Tinubu because you are not sure they will guarantee the killing of your people…

And your alternative solution is to refrain from voting at all because you think the next candidate who is sure to guarantee your safety and safety of your people does not possess the ‘spread’?

Is that how you solve your problems?

Well,what do you do when you're disadvantaged?
The scenario you pictured put me among the minority so even if we vote for 'our savior', what difference will it make? Remember M/M ticket in Kaduna 2019 and El'Rufai still won with about 190k votes to spare.
Southern KD voted overwhelmingly for PDP and even polled about 500k votes but still it was as good as nothing as northern and central Kaduna neutralized what PDP polled in southern KD. If PDP with all it's structure lost in 2019 in Kaduna despite m/m ticket then you'll see that the template can be replicated nationwide.
A workable solution will be to choose a national party that's has a spread that is the lesser evil...I mean PDP governered KD and the scenario in today's Southern KD wasn't the same in PDP government.


You see

Aiel123:

Well,what do you do when you're disadvantaged?
The scenario you pictured put me among the minority so even if we vote for 'our savior', what difference will it make? Remember M/M ticket in Kaduna 2019 and El'Rufai still won with about 190k votes to spare.
Southern KD voted overwhelmingly for PDP and even polled about 500k votes but still it was as good as nothing as northern and central Kaduna neutralized what PDP polled in southern KD. If PDP with all it's structure lost in 2019 in Kaduna despite m/m ticket then you'll see that the template can be replicated nationwide.
A workable solution will be to choose a national party that's has a spread that is the lesser evil...I mean PDP governered KD and the scenario in today's Southern KD wasn't the same in PDP government.


You see

Are we talking about Governorship or Presidential election here?

Penguin2:


Are we talking about Governorship or Presidential election here?

It applies to both though with more emphasis on guber.
Which states do you think PO will get to reach the spread of two thirds?
Let's start from there.

asanausana91:
are you this dumb? Those CAN pastors you are talking about are they not queuing for fuel? Are they not going to the market?
Any Christian that vote for a Muslim Muslim ticket. he will never escape karma.
How on earth that a Christian will vote for a man that said Christians are not competent enough to be vice President.

the high cost of living is worldwide not only in Nigeria, pls stop using inflation and high cost of living to distract us, the pastors 're not illiterates not to know that it is not APC faults ok. Attribute it to Russian Ukraine war.

Correct.

Thisday newspaper also made a similar analysis in 2019 to favour Atiku but turned out to be inaccurate.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sunnewsonline.com/2019-poll-thisdays-survey-showing-atiku-leading-buhari/%3famp

Penguin2:


What you need understand is that in 2015, the happenings around the country and APC propaganda made most Nigerians tired of the Jonathan government and genuinely so.

So, you wouldn’t blame the Northern Christians who voted Buhari in 2015; some southern Christians did too.

But the dynamics are different for the 2023 elections.

That is true

SIRAO:


the high cost of living is worldwide not only in Nigeria, pls stop using inflation and high cost of living to distract us, the pastors 're not illiterates not to know that it is not APC faults ok. Attribute it to Russian Ukraine war.

just shut up. Did Russia Ukraine stop you from investing in agriculture in Nigeria?