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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? (2111 Views)
428,941 Nigerians Got Cash In 24 States, 130,455 From Katsina – Minister / Atiku Abubakar And Peter Obi On "The Candidates" Live At 8pm Tonight. / Buhari And Osinbajo On “The Candidates” (Live Updates) (2) (3) (4)
Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Trollronaldo: 6:49am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Let's do this analysis: this analysis is based on the fact of the realities on ground with minimal sentiment. The realities posits that this election is going to be based on: 1. Tribe 2. Religion 3. Popularity of candidates instead of party. 4. Vote buying. 5. BVAS. On this basis, these are the states that each candidates are mots likely going to get 25%: 1. Tinubu Tinubu is well rooted in southwest and he's very popular in kwara, Niger. Northeast and northwest. However, he's popularity in northwest and northeast will be seriously waned by tribalism. He's opponents are equally as popular and they are from those regions. He's not going to perform will in Christian dominated states of northcentral like Plateau and Benue. While he's in the ruling party, Tinubu doesn't have what it takes to get the cult votes of Buhari in the north to beat Atiku. Tinubu is most likely going to get 25% in the following states: 1. Lagos 2. Ogun 3. Osun 4. Ekiti 5.Oyo 6. Ondo 7. Kwara 8. Niger 9. Kaduna 10. Zamfara 11.Kebbi 12. Katsina 13. Jigawa 14. Kogi 15. Nasarawa 16. Yobe 17.Borno 18. Gombe 19. Abuja 20. Crossriver 2. Peter Obi Peter Obi is extremely popular is southsouth, southeast and North Central with a substantial level of followership in southwest. He's also very popular amongst Christians and the youths for the past failures of other major parties. He's not accepted in northwest and northeast or states dominated by Muslims like Niger and Kwara. Based on these, these are the states that Peter Obi is likely to get 25% 1. Abia 2. Imo 3. Anambra 4.Enugu 5. Ebonyi 6. Rivers 7. Delta 8. Bayelsa 9. Edo 10. Crossriver 11. Akwa ibom 12. Lagos 13. Ogun 14. Oyo 15. Ondo 16. Taraba 17. Kaduna 18. Abuja 19. Nasarawa 20. Benue 21. Plateau 3. Atiku Atiku is very popular in the whole of North, with some political footing in southsouth and southeast, however he won't be able to subdue ethnicity and the popularity of Peter Obi in these regions because of BVAS. Hence these are the states I am giving to Atiku. 1. Adamawa 2. Borno 3. Yobe 4. Gombe 5. Taraba 6. Bauchi 7. Kano 8. Sokoto 9. Kebbi 10. Zamfara 11. Jigawa 12. Katsina 13. Niger 14. Kwara 15. Nasarawa 16. Benue 17. Plateau 18. Delta 19. Bayelsa 20. Edo 21. Akwa Ibom Thanks for reading, remember this is based on my personal unbiased opinion So I don't see anyone of them getting this 25% prerequisite. 3 Likes |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Mynd44: 7:06am On Jan 11, 2023 |
For Tinubu Add: Kano Plateau Sokoto Ebonyi Edo For Atiku Add Osun and Plateau For Obi Remove Taraba Ogun Oyo Ondo Kaduna Nasarawa 13 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Aufbauh(m): 7:06am On Jan 11, 2023 |
It's only Tinubu that will satisfy that requirement. Obi: All the five SE states = 5 All the SS states = 6 SW states = at most 3 NC states= 3 NE states= 0 NW states = 1 Total = 18 states Atiku SE states = 0 SS states = at most 3 SW states = at most 3 NC states = at most 4 NE states = at most 4 NW states = at most 4 Total = 18 States Tinubu SE states = 2 SS states = 6 SW states= 6 NC states = 6 NE states = at least 4 NW states = 7 Total = 31 states Let me give you some underlying fact: 1. Any zone/state that Obi becomes more powerful then Atiku becomes weaker and vice versa. 2. Any state in the core north that Atiku did not achieved 40% in 2019 will be practically impossible for Obi to get 25%. 3.:No sitting Governor's party has gone below second position in the presidential election in his state. So the least the APC could get in it controlled state is 2nd, making it practically possible to get the 25%. joyandfaith: 4. The core northern Christians has always being pro PDP so your insinuation is inconsistent. The only effect of Muslim- Muslim ticket that may take a little from the APC is in Benue of NC. The only state in the north that has no underlying sharp religious divide in the past. 9 Likes |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Dialpad: 7:09am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Even Obi will laugh at your analysis, he knows what is on ground. The entire process is more of an entertainment than political reality 6 Likes |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Honjoshy4u: 7:27am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Aufbauh: Keep day dreaming bro. February is closer. Keep your agbado calculation... 17 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Aufbauh(m): 7:31am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Honjoshy4u: We don't just dream. Our dreams come to reality cos we know how to interpret and operate. I've predicted Nigeria presidential election since 1999 and it hasn't failed. 5 Likes |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by joyandfaith: 7:37am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Aufbauh: Majority votes- Atiku, Obi, Tinubu in that order. I predict rerun off between obi and Atiku. Kwankwaso and Atiku would reduce Apc votes in the north. Muslim-Muslim ticket would reduce APC votes in the SW. 11 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by HIGHESTPOPORI(m): 7:49am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Mynd44:Apc mod, Obi will win those states you said they should remove.Yoruba Muslim votes won't take tinubu anyhwere 13 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Trollronaldo: 8:00am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Mynd44:Well, Obi will get 25% in these states listed. I slightly agree with you on Tinubu except Ebonyi because of BVAS. Umahi cannot help Tinubu to rig any polling unit to overwhelm Peter Obi's support base 8 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by joyandfaith: 8:10am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Aufbauh: Obi: All the five SE states = 5 All the SS states = 6 SW states = at most 4 NC states= 3 NE states= 1 NW states = 1 FCT Abuja Total = 20 states Atiku SE states = 0 SS states = at most 3 SW states = at most 3 NC states = at most 4 NE states = at most 6 NW states = at most 7 Total = 23 States Tinubu SE states = 1 SS states = 2 SW states= 6 NC states = 4 NE states = at least 4 NW states = 7 Total = 24 states Tribalism, religion , social media and ability of candidates would play huge roles in the next elections. Dynamic is changing rapidly. Don't jokes with opinion polls. |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Honjoshy4u: 8:12am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Aufbauh: Keep predicting rubbish. I hope after predicting, you will go out with your useless APC membership card to buy a bag of rice #12,000. Exchange dollar for #220( that is if the government you support have not finished you). You should be ashamed of supporting a failed party. For your information, APC/Tinubu can not win any state in the SS or SE. For your information, even Buhari no win Abuja not to talk of Tinubu. Keep predicting ....... 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by unclejb2(m): 8:22am On Jan 11, 2023 |
joyandfaith:Tinubu will not get up to 10% votes in SS and SE. He knows that too. Obi will get 25% votes in all the SW states plus Kaduna, Taraba, and Nasarawa 6 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Mfetenang: 8:29am On Jan 11, 2023 |
HIGHESTPOPORI: |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Trapnews: 8:32am On Jan 11, 2023 |
For the record, the special adviser to Pitoobi has been healed. Where do we go from here?
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Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Mfetenang: 8:35am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Never let your sentiments or emotions overshadow reality. For those who understand Nigerian politics including all the real politicians in the South East like Soludo,Kalu,Nnamadi and the rest of them, Peter Obi's eminent failure and embarrassment won't be a surprise. It's only people like you who are selling spare parts in Onitsha market that will come here to make noise because you have managed to sell one item today and you have 1000 Naira for data. 1 Like |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Waterysperm: 8:38am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Tinubu can never get 25% in any South-south state or Southeast state. I am telling you the reality on ground today. Peter Obi will surprise you all. Bookmark this comment for future reference. The South-south and East is 11 states. There is no state in the Southwest that Obi won't get 25% percent. I can place a 100k bet with anyone that disagrees with me on this. I repeat again, there is no Southwest state that Obi won't get 25%. That is a total of 17 states. Now add Plateau, Nassarawa, Benue, Kogi, Taraba, Kwara, Kaduna, Gombe and Abuja. Obi will get 25% in all these states. I am telling you based on reality on ground not hearsay or paper projection. Just as I said earlier, Obi will surprise you all. 6 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:42am On Jan 11, 2023 |
joyandfaith: Tinubu,obi and atiku.no runoff.obi has killed atiku in south snd nc |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:43am On Jan 11, 2023 |
unclejb2: You lie.obi won't see 25% outside lagos.tinubu will see 25% in 2 se states,3 ss states |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:45am On Jan 11, 2023 |
joyandfaith: Tinubu will have 25% in all northern states except maybe adamawa |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:46am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Trollronaldo: Bvas won't do anything...if umahi cannot rig,he will reduce or scatter obi's votes |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:49am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Trollronaldo: Tinubu will get it in plateau benue,taraba.if your giving tinubu cross river,then you must add Edo and bayelsa first because apc is stronger there.tinubu will also get it in ebonyi and imo |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by unclejb2(m): 8:50am On Jan 11, 2023 |
senatordave1:The Muslim Muslim ticket killed Tinubu's ambition and boosted Obi's chances. Yoruba christians will vote massively for Obi. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:51am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Trollronaldo: Tinubu will get it in plateau benue,taraba.if your giving tinubu cross river,then you must add Edo and bayelsa first because apc is stronger there.tinubu will also get it in ebonyi and imo...atiku won't get it in zamfara,yobe,borno,Edo,rivers,Ogun,kwara,ekiti... Obi won't get it in Ogun,osun,ekiti,niger,kwara,kogi,bayelsa.. |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by unclejb2(m): 8:52am On Jan 11, 2023 |
senatordave1:Umahi is not dumb.... Umahi is supporting Obi fully from the background. February no far again 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:52am On Jan 11, 2023 |
unclejb2: Not true.yorubas don't care about religion |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 8:53am On Jan 11, 2023 |
unclejb2: Di you have any evidence? Umahi is on the ballot so he will support tinubu automatically |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by PureMe01: 8:56am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Mynd44: Your hate for Igbos is now very clear even when it's obvious Peter Obi is your next president. You will join your co agbado urchins to wail till next 8 years 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Meagainstthem: 9:07am On Jan 11, 2023 |
senatordave1: Atiku will have 25% in Ogun state but Peter Obi will find it hard to gain 10% 1 Like |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Trollronaldo: 9:09am On Jan 11, 2023 |
senatordave1:if Umahi cannot rig then Tinubu won't get 10% in ebonyi.. BVAS will do a lot. Take it or leave it 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by Trollronaldo: 9:10am On Jan 11, 2023 |
senatordave1:a lot of Yorubas care about religion. Trust me, it's why we have Hijab crisis. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 9:12am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Trollronaldo: In kwara |
Re: Which Of The Candidates Will Be Able To Get 25% In 24 States? by senatordave1(m): 9:14am On Jan 11, 2023 |
Trollronaldo: There are many ways to vote.bvas can only stop overviting,it can't stop vote buying,agents from compromising,votes to be rejigged or voters being coerced |
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