Theflint1:
In 2015 and 2019, Edo was under the control of APC, like you said, these permutations would be revisited post-election. APC won't get 25% from Edo State.

izzou:


So, if Atiku wins irrespective of all these, who would you say Obi's emergence affected?

seankafor:
Is this the lifestyle most people crave

Woke culture

https://twitter.com/instablog9ja/status/1615235465132531714?t=lFDiH6ERfle3K9fV7fOBUA&s=19

izzou:


Most of the SWesterners voting Obi, that I know are Christians.

So if Obi was not on the ticket, who did you think they will vote for?

Like i said, if Atiku wins, Obi was not going to be a problem

larride:


There is massive door to door campaign currently ongoing in Lagos and other part of the country.

39 days is not too far sha, hopefully nobody will shout rigging if their permutations no permutate.

izzou:


So, if Atiku wins irrespective of all these, who would you say Obi's emergence affected?

larride:
Even Ja.rus who just returned from Offa said on Twitter said Tinubu can get as high as 75% in Kwara.
When I see some analysis I just laugh.

larride:


Definitely. It's also a pipe dream that Peter Obi will sweep SE and SS. While I've always conceded that naturally Obi should sweep SE, it's going to be a different ball game in the SS.

Buhari actually got over 40% of votes in Edo both in 2015 and 2019 but somehow Obi will sweep the place that an incumbent GEJ didnt sweep. I also believe Tinubu will get at least 25% in Ebonyi, Imo and maybe Enugu.

In the SS, Tinubu will get at least 25% in Edo, Delta, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Anyone is free to agree or disagree sha.

raumdeuter:

Yes that is good, but don't concentrate too much on SW, rather that North we need to neutralize Atiku there as much as possible

izzou:


So, if Atiku wins irrespective of all these, who would you say Obi's emergence affected?

seankafor:
Is this the lifestyle most people crave

Woke culture

https://twitter.com/instablog9ja/status/1615235465132531714?t=lFDiH6ERfle3K9fV7fOBUA&s=19

izzou:


Obi, coming 3rd is not the issue.

If Atiku wins, it means Obi affected BAT more than Atiku.

raumdeuter:


It still affected Atiku. Since the margin would have been wider

Its like reducing a 7-2 victory to a 4-2 victory

You know without Obi, Atiku wont even need to campaign in SE as all 5 states will automatically vote him. Even in most of the SS

chrisooblog:
If Atiku wins then it will mean the northern establishment double crossed Tinubu on a massive scale. Obi has just made unpredictable what should have been a cakewalk for mikano.

Apart from Lagos Obi doesn't significantly affect the chances of BAT in the states he's realistically hoping to win.

raumdeuter:

Whats the protest about?
Is it that they identify as dogs and want to be treated as dogs?

raumdeuter:


Obi might not sweep the entire SS but I expect him to win a few states there and Atiku edging him in 1 or 2

If Obi wins the entire SE and SS then it even makes it better. Remember every vote denied Atiku in the South is a win for APC

raumdeuter:


That is because Atiku voters are not online. So attacking Atiku online makes no difference

You attack where you will have impact.

As it is today. Obi has stolen Atikus lunch in the entire SE and SS.

APC needs to keep it that way.

Of Obis current support 90% of them would have voted PDP and not Tinubu

afrodoc2:


But this logic no enter. If Atiku wins it only means he would have won with a bigger landslide without Obi. If he gets 52% in this election then maybe he would have gotten > 70% if Obi was absent.

Izzou can you name the states in the SE that Tinubu would win in a straight contest between Tinubu and Atiku?
After that name the states that Tinubu would win in the SS in a straight contest between Tinubu and Atiku?

Spy360:

you are right. But that is under a structured political campaign. That is if PO was not in the ballot.

kindly recall that there was a lot of voter apathy during the previous two elections in the SS and SE. Those who voted are only party members. This was the reason when the SC gave the Imo State governorship to Uzodimma, no body protested. People were just not interested. To them, "na dem dem".

For an example, none of my family members voted, and i mean extended family. For me and my wife, we just got our PVCs. None of us are part of the so called structure, and we are all going to vote this time around.

If the same thing is happening else where, like for example Lagos had over 6million registered voters in the last election, but less than 2million actually participated, that leaves over 4million (5million if you take the current statistics) not part of the structure.

What you guys aren't getting and would be shocked to discover is that structure has now been broken in Nigerian politics. February 25 is no longer far.

izzou:


You are looking at it from the ethnic angle. I am also saying there is a religious angle that definitely matters

For example, people of Benue that will vote LP, would have easily voted BAT instead of a Fulani.

The same would go for Plateau and parts of Kaduna.

Also, if Obi did not show up, APC selling BAT as a Southern candidate would have been easier. Governors of the G5 would easily stick with BAT if Obi didn't show up.

izzou:


You are looking at it from the ethnic angle. I am also saying there is a religious angle that definitely matters

For example, people of Benue that will vote LP, would have easily voted BAT instead of a Fulani.

The same would go for Plateau and parts of Kaduna.

Also, if Obi did not show up, APC selling BAT as a Southern candidate would have been easier. Governors of the G5 would easily stick with BAT if Obi didn't show up.

raumdeuter:


Benue Plateau and Kaduna despite Obi, Tinubu still has a chance of winning or at least get 30% in all of those places. Thats just 3 places

Do you think without Obi, Atiku wont get 70% in the entire SE. Tinubu has zero chances of winning the SE right now with Obi it only ensures that Atiku his major challenger is not the one benefitting. Simply if I (BAT) cannot get it then as long as Atiku does not get it, Its fine

Among the G5 you think without Obi, Tinubu will actually win Abia, Enugu or Rivers in a straight fight with Atiku?
Out of those G5 states, even if the governors old guns to electorates head, the only places Tinubu has a chance are Oyo and possibly Benue

If all the elections was held in Ikpeazu Ugwuayis bedroom Tinubu will never wn

izzou:


You are holding on to Ikpeazu and Enugu.

What about Wike? If Wike supports APC in Rivers, BAT wouldn't win?

Or is it Ortom or Makinde?

APC has the structure to get 25% in every state in Nigeria. I am just wondering where all these humility is coming from. So BAT is now reducing himself to 30% in Benue, so we can magnify Atiku as the winner?

Make una take am easy with the exaggeration abeg

afrodoc2:


Whatever angle you want to use, at the end of the day which of these states will Tinubu win in a straight election with Atiku?

Anambra
Enugu
Imo
Abia
Ebonyi
Rivers
Delta
Edo
Bayelsa
Cross River
Akwa-Ibom

afrodoc2:


Whatever angle you want to use, at the end of the day which of these states will Tinubu win in a straight election with Atiku?

Anambra
Enugu
Imo
Abia
Ebonyi
Rivers
Delta
Edo
Bayelsa
Cross River
Akwa-Ibom