PlayerMeji:
Folks like you are not strangers to losing... You lost the apc primaries, you didn't die..

So when you lose the presidential election you wont die too

If Tinubu win, make trailer jam me. I know he won't win, that's why I am so sure

Workch:
as long as Tinubu loses, I am okay 😂

We made it clear from the get go. It's either we win together or we lose together. If it's anybody's turn in the south, it's the southeast's turn. Every non-urchin Yoruba also agrees. But, regardless of Tinubu's betrayal of his southern brothers, we are pushing this thing to win it, and we are succeeding.

Either that, or this thing stays where it is.

Simple!

Workch:
before nko, no be Urchins dey hype am?

My broda, if anybody fit catch an urchin for me, I wan collect their blood go test for lab. They can't be normal.

Svoboda:


Non realistic possibility. Fight is between tinubu and atiku. Obi is gnawing at pdps power base in the ss and se. Apc is more or less intact.

A united opposition would have trashed APc by a wide margin. I mean a very wide margin. Maybe with a win of over 65%.

LP has done huge damages to whatever PDP would get in SE, SS and SW (Lagos especially, PDP is well rooted in other SW states and they might secure some numbers but protestant south Western votes will go to LP).

It's a fact that the cabals are not on BAT's side. Infact, his saving grace in Northern Nigeria (NW & NE) are the northern governors who are not only a close ally but fighting to get their hands on the presidential seat in the next 8years. They singlehandedly rescued BAT during the primaries and dished the cabals. Unless they betray BAT, it would be ignorant to write him off.

LP would need to get atleast 60% of SW votes and win SS with a huge margin (personally, I don't think any SS states would give bloc votes) for them to win. I'm impressed with LP's penetration of NC.

2023 was/is PDP's chance to regain power if only LP, NNPC and the G5 weren't in factor.

garfield1

garfield1:


So is poll the only fact? Nigeria has about 90 mil voters and those poll covers less than 50,000 people in the urban areas.did most polls not project atiku as winner in 2019?

You are even imagining things from your kitchen since room no dey.the only poll I even accept is anap polls and it says obi will only win se/ss and lose other areas.google trends which covers millions clearly shows tinubu winning.

For you to say it's done in urban areas means to haven't read the report of the poll. That why I posted the link. Why don't you guys take time to read? Why? Why?

kay1one:


For you to say it's done in urban areas means to haven't read the report of the poll. That why I posted the link. Why don't you guys take time to read? Why? Why?

16000 respondents is too small to use for an analysis

00FFT00:


My broda, if anybody fit catch an urchin for me, I wan collect their blood go test for lab. They can't be normal.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

garfield1:


16000 respondents is too small to use for an analysis

But your ONE opinion is what we should take right? 🤦😂

Efewestern:


A united opposition would have trashed APc by a wide margin. I mean a very wide margin. Maybe with a win of over 65%.

LP has done huge damages to whatever PDP would get in SE, SS and SW (Lagos especially, PDP is well rooted in other SW states and they might secure some numbers but protestant south Western votes will go to LP).

It's a fact that the cabals are not on BAT's side. Infact, his saving grace in Northern Nigeria (NW & NE) are the northern governors who are not only a close ally but fighting to get their hands on the presidential seat in the next 8years. They singlehandedly rescued BAT during the primaries and dished the cabals. Unless they betray BAT, it would be ignorant to write him off.

LP would need to get atleast 60% of SW votes and win SS with a huge margin (personally, I don't think any SS states would give bloc votes) for them to win. I'm impressed with LP's penetration of NC.

2023 was/is PDP's chance to regain power if only LP, NNPC and the G5 weren't in factor.

garfield1

My brother,I am on all fours with you esp your analysis on ss.ss is a battleground.delta will be contested by the three parties and all will get 25% though I see atiku winning.with wike against atiku,rivers is obi vs tinubu but I see obi winning with tinubu getting 25%.in aks,I see pdp winning but obi and tinubu should get 25%.in bayelsa,it is apc vs pdp.it will be closely contested.in crs river,the three parties are well matched but with apc campaigning more with more personnel and resources and pdp disunited,apc may win.I think edo is between lp and apc with lp narrowly winning.
In nc,lp penetratuon is mostly in benue,plateau and fct but it seems they have lost steam on benue.but obi should beat atiku in nc.the battle will be in ne nw

kay1one:


But your ONE opinion is what we should take right? 🤦😂

No.but I have antecedents.again,google trend used millions of respondents to analyse.noi polls is manageable

Efewestern:


A united opposition would have trashed APc by a wide margin. I mean a very wide margin. Maybe with a win of over 65%.

LP has done huge damages to whatever PDP would get in SE, SS and SW (Lagos especially, PDP is well rooted in other SW states and they might secure some numbers but protestant south Western votes will go to LP).

It's a fact that the cabals are not on BAT's side. Infact, his saving grace in Northern Nigeria (NW & NE) are the northern governors who are not only a close ally but fighting to get their hands on the presidential seat in the next 8years. They singlehandedly rescued BAT during the primaries and dished the cabals. Unless they betray BAT, it would be ignorant to write him off.

LP would need to get atleast 60% of SW votes and win SS with a huge margin (personally, I don't think any SS states would give bloc votes) for them to win. I'm impressed with LP's penetration of NC.

2023 was/is PDP's chance to regain power if only LP, NNPC and the G5 weren't in factor.

garfield1

Governors can help you win primaries but they cannot help you win the general election if you are not popular in that region, especially with BVAS.

Governors didn't help Tinubu in the primaries, he paid himself into winning via the governors. It's hard to do that on a large scale during thr main election

LP doesn't need 60% southwest to win. LP only needs to get 25% from all southwest states to win.

Never you think that any Northern governor is with Tinubu for free and fairness, are you a learner in politics?

I quite agree with this poll. It perfectly made sense with a lot of things currently going on.

1. APC and its flagbearer Tinubu have lost so much popularity in recent times. Tinubu's stronghold remains yoruba muslims. Northern Muslims have obviously abandoned him. His popularity continues going down as we approach the elections. These are verifiable facts!!!

2. Atiku continues to rebound in the Muslim parts of North, effectively displacing Tinubu. However, he has lost out completely in the East and SS. These are verifiable facts!!!

3. Peter Obi's popularity continues to rise and he has maintained the lead in terms of cummulative numbers. He is running neck and neck with Tinubu in Lagos. Obi is also a close second in Kaduna. These are verifiable facts!!!

Now I understand why Obi is aggressively campaigning in the Muslim parts of Northern Nigeria. He is also going deep into certain demographies within those states where he knows he is generally accepted. Example are places like Southern Kaduna, Southern Borno etc.

However, Obi's campaigns in the Muslim parts of North is currently taking place, after this poll had been conducted. In other words, by the time election is due, he is likely to capture more significant votes across NW, NE, NC and SW while maintaining his chokehold on SS and SE.

garfield1:


16000 respondents is too small to use for an analysis

But your own opinion of 1 is very big to judge 😂😂

garfield1:


No.but I have antecedents.again,google trend used millions of respondents to analyse.noi polls is manageable

🙆 Google trends analyses searches which can be positive or negative.

Tinubu is trending based on negative searches believe me! Garagara 😂

Efewestern:


A united opposition would have trashed APc by a wide margin. I mean a very wide margin. Maybe with a win of over 65%.

LP has done huge damages to whatever PDP would get in SE, SS and SW (Lagos especially, PDP is well rooted in other SW states and they might secure some numbers but protestant south Western votes will go to LP).

It's a fact that the cabals are not on BAT's side. Infact, his saving grace in Northern Nigeria (NW & NE) are the northern governors who are not only a close ally but fighting to get their hands on the presidential seat in the next 8years. They singlehandedly rescued BAT during the primaries and dished the cabals. Unless they betray BAT, it would be ignorant to write him off.

LP would need to get atleast 60% of SW votes and win SS with a huge margin (personally, I don't think any SS states would give bloc votes) for them to win. I'm impressed with LP's penetration of NC.

2023 was/is PDP's chance to regain power if only LP, NNPC and the G5 weren't in factor.

garfield1

You sabi politics ! From what I know, either Atiku/Tinubu would carry the day, depending on whose vote was damage most by Obi !

Efewestern:


A united opposition would have trashed APc by a wide margin. I mean a very wide margin. Maybe with a win of over 65%.

LP has done huge damages to whatever PDP would get in SE, SS and SW (Lagos especially, PDP is well rooted in other SW states and they might secure some numbers but protestant south Western votes will go to LP).

It's a fact that the cabals are not on BAT's side. Infact, his saving grace in Northern Nigeria (NW & NE) are the northern governors who are not only a close ally but fighting to get their hands on the presidential seat in the next 8years. They singlehandedly rescued BAT during the primaries and dished the cabals. Unless they betray BAT, it would be ignorant to write him off.

LP would need to get atleast 60% of SW votes and win SS with a huge margin (personally, I don't think any SS states would give bloc votes) for them to win. I'm impressed with LP's penetration of NC.

2023 was/is PDP's chance to regain power if only LP, NNPC and the G5 weren't in factor.

garfield1

Your analysis is spot on and unemotionally straight forward. You have thoroughly studied the current electoral map.
Kudos.

kay1one:


🙆 Google trends analyses searches which can be positive or negative.

Tinubu is trending based on negative searches believe me! Garagara 😂

Believe me that obi at a point also trended because of his lies on that trend...Pandora,china, analysis,awkuzu massacre

garfield1:


My brother,I am on all fours with you esp your analysis on ss.ss is a battleground.delta will be contested by the three parties and all will get 25% though I see atiku winning.with wike against atiku,rivers is obi vs tinubu but I see obi winning with tinubu getting 25%.in aks,I see pdp winning but obi and tinubu should get 25%.in bayelsa,it is apc vs pdp.it will be closely contested.in crs river,the three parties are well matched but with apc campaigning more with more personnel and resources and pdp disunited,apc may win.I think edo is between lp and apc with lp narrowly winning.
In nc,lp penetratuon is mostly in benue,plateau and fct but it seems they have lost steam on benue.but obi should beat atiku in nc.the battle will be in ne nw

The major problem with you and other diehard Tinubu supporters is that you are not matured enough to separate emotions and wishful thinking from reality. Even when faced with hard facts, you will still find a way to give yourself false hope.

You really need to grow up and be more objective.

MrEverest:


The major problem with you and other diehard Tinubu supporters is that you are not matured enough to separate emotions and wishful thinking from reality. Even when faced with hard facts, you will still find a way to give yourself false hope.

You really need to grow up and be more objective.

Do you think I like Tinubu? My original choices were amechi and osibanjo? I am from ss same as the guy I quoted.the realities on ground points to a Tinubu victory

Svoboda:


Oga, theres nothing childish about it. It is logically straight forward and warrants no emotionalism. Name one single country in our hemisphere where a split opposition was able to unseat a united ruling party.

Kenya! The opposition that won the election was a member (VP) of the ruling party till he split and left.

The ruling party that lost the election was actually a merger between the ruling party and the former opposition party led by Raila. It was a behemoth, unthinkable to think they'd lose. The rest as they say is history.

Just dey play sha. Yorubas will vote for Bola but northerners will not vote for Atiku. Same people who have always voted along ethnic lines since our return to democracy. Just dey play!

Workch:
But your own opinion of 1 is very big to judge 😂😂

I have track record.does the faceless poll has any

Workch:
Governors can help you win primaries but they cannot help you win the general election if you are not popular in that region, especially with BVAS.

Governors didn't help Tinubu in the primaries, he paid himself into winning via the governors. It's hard to do that on a large scale during thr main election

LP doesn't need 60% southwest to win. LP only needs to get 25% from all southwest states to win.

Never you think that any Northern governor is with Tinubu for free and fairness, are you a learner in politics?

You talk like a neophyte in politic ! who tells you governors does not matter ? Do you know how how many people depend directly/indirectly from the governor for their daily bread ? governors have thousands of political appointee whom have family and well wishers !

Onovo3:


You talk like a neophyte in politic ! who tells you governors does not matter ? Do you know how how many people depend directly/indirectly from the governor for their daily bread ? governors have thousands of political appointee whom have family and well wishers !

You are the neophyte that cannot decipher the dynamics and current trends. You are stock in 2019.
A good political analyst is dynamic and uses insights from current trends to make informed decisions in combination with historical facts.
You views are limited to historical facts alone and it doesn't work that way

Had this particular election held in 2019, Obi will lose before 12noon, but now? He has a chance. You aren't smart enough to analyze it

You are overrating Atiku and Tinubu purely based on history and not the current trend

Svoboda:


Non realistic possibility. Fight is between tinubu and atiku. Obi is gnawing at pdps power base in the ss and se. Apc is more or less intact.

abi

Onovo3:


You talk like a neophyte in politic ! who tells you governors does not matter ? Do you know how how many people depend directly/indirectly from the governor for their daily bread ? governors have thousands of political appointee whom have family and well wishers !

Again, you also lack basic statistics skills, what's the ratio of those who depend on gocrnrors to feed to those who don't?

How would that overturn an election figure? Are you people just blind that you cannot see?

The ratio of those who directly depend on gocrnrors to the citizens of a state is inconsequentially low. You have eyes but you cannot see, you are stock in the past

garfield1:


It is very true.would buhari have won gej with CPC? The saying about strength in unity,is it true or false?

You seem to forget why GEJ lost the election. He practically lost the North Central, he lost most of the Christian north. He also lost his small base in the SW. Then let's not talk about the almost 45% incidents form votes that accrued to Buhari.

Now you see why your logic is flawed? The same people who voted for GEJ in 2011, abandoned him to vote for Buhari in 2015! This is to tell you that voters pattern change and is quite malleable, depending on the persons on the ballot and their interests. Make una dey play sha... Just dey play!

garfield1:


I have track record.does the faceless poll has any

So we should disbelieve 16k people's opinion and then believe yours 😂

Oshey, baddest

garfield1:


Do you think I like Tinubu? My original choices were amechi and osibanjo? I am from ss same as the guy I quoted.the realities on ground points to a Tinubu victory

I wonder who you want to deceive with those lies. You have always wanted and supported Tinubu!

Now, every available poll conducted shows that Obi is far ahead in in all SE and SS states including Bayelsa. This same poll here stated same yet you jumped in to say that Bayelsa is between votes is for Tinubu and Atiku

I repeat, stop allowing your emotions and wishful thinking to get the better of you. That's a sign of immaturity.

Svoboda:


Your analysis is spot on and unemotionally straight forward. You have thoroughly studied the current electoral map.
Kudos.

There is a reason why I always include or quote Efewestern,aiel and tutudesz in all my posts on delta PR ss.the guy gives objective analysis.I have one from every region.in se matters,I listen to fergie,in bayelsa matters I use bayelsaowei and kinematics or skengman.in benue,I use kyase.in ne,I use samuelanyanwu.in Adamawa,I use immaculatejoe.in aks,I use saintkeppy.in nc,I use sionkpo

Workch:
Governors can help you win primaries but they cannot help you win the general election if you are not popular in that region, especially with BVAS.

Governors didn't help Tinubu in the primaries, he paid himself into winning via the governors. It's hard to do that on a large scale during thr main election

LP doesn't need 60% southwest to win. LP only needs to get 25% from all southwest states to win.

Never you think that any Northern governor is with Tinubu for free and fairness, are you a learner in politics?

Money alone can't win you primaries. You need strategic supports from governors who by extension controls the delegates.

The National chairman of APC and Aso cabal never wanted BAT and they didn't even hide it. Few weeks to the primaries, northern governors were summoned to Abuja and they insisted that power must return to South. That was even after Lawal had been endorsed by some cabal members and some APC key figures.

The northern governors fought fiercely for BAT. If not for them, Ameachi or Lawal would have won.

Also, you can't downplay the impacts of governors in Nigerian elections, unless you are not truthful to yourself. Religion, Tribe, Political support and masses acceptance are what you put on the table when discussing the outcome of any election. Even in state levels, Tribe, political supports and masses acceptance play an important role.

Unless LP wins SS with a landslide and get atleast 50% of NC, They would need chunk of votes from SW. Like how GEJ secured his first ticket.

MrEverest:


I wonder who you want to deceive with those lies. You have always wanted and supported Tinubu!

Now, every available poll conducted shows that Obi is far ahead in in all SE and SS states including Bayelsa. This same poll here stated same yet you jumped in to say that Bayelsa is between votes is for Tinubu and Atiku

I repeat, stop allowing your emotions and wishful thinking to get the better of you. That's a sign of immaturity.

You lie.all ss polls are only limited to rivers,edo and delta.none has pointed at bayelsa.but if you must be honest,obi is weak in bayelsa na..I predicted oyetola to win at the tribunal and he just did

Workch:
So we should disbelieve 16k people's opinion and then believe yours 😂

Oshey, baddest

Oyetola just won at the tribunal