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My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 9:06am On Feb 06, 2023 |
My 2019 presidential election analysis was over 98% correct. I have studied and analysed the 36 states based on party structure, voters turn out projected. I will revisit in 3 weeks. North Central Plateau APC- 320,000 PDP - 300,000 LP - 350,000 Benue APC- 220,000 PDP - 250,000 LP - 300,000 Kogi APC- 260,000 PDP - 210,000 LP - 40,000 Nassarawa APC- 250,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 200,000 Kwara APC- 350,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 30,000 Niger APC- 380,000 PDP - 300,000 LP - 40,000 FCT APC- 180,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 250,000 South East Anambra APC- 50,000 PDP - 120,000 LP - 650,000 Enugu APC- 60,000 PDP - 100,000 LP - 450,000 Ebonyi APC- 120,000 PDP - 110,000 LP - 320,000 Imo APC- 200,000 PDP - 250,000 LP - 400,000 Abia APC- 70,000 PDP - 120,000 LP - 400,000 South West Lagos APC- 850,000 PDP - 350,000 LP - 550,000 Ogun APC- 400,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 80,000 Osun APC- 450,000 PDP - 250,000 LP - 50,000 Oyo APC- 550,000 PDP - 250,000 LP - 100,000 Ekiti APC- 250,000 PDP - 50,000 LP - 35,000 Ondo APC- 350,000 PDP - 150,000 LP - 100,000 South South Rivers APC- 200,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 400,000 Cross Rivers APC- 200,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 200,000 Edo APC- 200,000 PDP - 250,000 LP - 350,000 Delta APC- 250,000 PDP - 550,000 LP - 300,000 Akwa Ibom APC- 200,000 PDP - 270,000 LP - 280,000 Bayelsa APC- 120,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 100,000 North East Taraba APC- 180,000 PDP - 320,000 LP - 120,000 Bauchi APC- 300,000 PDP - 500,000 LP - 50,000 Gombe APC- 250,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 30,000 Yobe APC- 350,000 PDP - 200,000 LP - 5,000 Borno APC- 650,000 PDP - 300,000 LP - 40,000 Adamawa APC- 200,000 PDP - 550,000 LP - 40,000 North West Kaduna APC- 650,000 PDP - 500,000 LP - 250,000 Sokoto APC- 350,000 PDP - 550,000 LP - 30,000 Kebbi APC- 400,000 PDP - 450,000 LP - 10,000 Jigawa APC- 500,000 PDP - 420,000 LP - 10,000 Kano APC- 900,000 PDP -850,000 LP - 70,000 Katsina APC- 600,000 PDP - 550,000 LP - 30,000 Zamfara APC- 500,000 PDP - 300,000 LP - 5,000 It is 19days to election. APC with roughly 12.5 million. PDP with 11 million votes and LP with 6.5 million votes. NNPP is a party that will continue to suffer attrition, a sizable part of Kwankaso votes have been allocated to PDP by the way, if the presidential flagbearer decides to pledge alliance to APC, the margin gets bigger. 15 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by PrinceOfLagos: 9:08am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Peter Obi of the Labour Party Wins Insha Allah 32 Likes 4 Shares
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Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by FORHII: 9:09am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Hehehe..."I have studied and analysed the 36 states based on party structure" This statement made you more stupid than you are. 41 Likes 5 Shares |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by oyin44: 9:12am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Good... any way..you are 60% correct You tried no b small 7 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by dat9jaguy(m): 9:13am On Feb 06, 2023 |
PrinceOfLagos: 8 Likes 1 Share
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Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by PrinceOfLagos: 9:14am On Feb 06, 2023 |
[quote author=dat9jaguy post=120675150][/quote] 2 Likes 1 Share
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Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Sammy07: 9:14am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Lemme book space first then analyze chinchum: Adjusted 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by dat9jaguy(m): 9:22am On Feb 06, 2023 |
[quote author=PrinceOfLagos post=120675173][/quote] Remember you did not give any condition when making your vow. Be a man and honor your vow. 5 Likes 1 Share
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Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Sammy07: 9:28am On Feb 06, 2023 |
chinchum: Adjusted 2 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Honlucas: 9:31am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Poster LP can't win Delta .. That Ur stat is unrealistic in Delta State . Ceteris paribus 2 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Ttalk: 9:34am On Feb 06, 2023 |
You try with your unbiased analysis, but I don't see PDP having more votes than APC in Kebbi state. You equally attached more importance to LP in SW. In Lagos for example, those who would vote are partymen APC and PDP people, the other group are just socialite who play football and post picture on Social media on the day of election. Lagos state election is going to be very interesting, just watch and see how LP perform woefully even in it's dominated area like Ojo. As for other SW states, the number of votes LP gets will be the reflection of number of Igbo living and registered in that state. Overall, your prediction is without sentiment 12 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 9:34am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Honlucas: LP did not win Delta in what i posted, check again. 2 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Ttalk: 9:36am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Sammy07: PDP could win Niger state if not I see them putting up strong feat in the state 1 Like |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by lanre9ja(m): 9:37am On Feb 06, 2023 |
This analysis may be correct but it's just a prediction..... 7 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by ambale(m): 9:39am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Ttalk: So are you saying that party in Lagos no dey suffer? Or sufferment no just wan tire them๐ 1 Like 2 Shares |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 9:39am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Ttalk:Former Kebbi Governor Adamu Aliero a senatorial candidate win at the supreme court recently boosted PDP chances. I usually drown sentiments when making this sort of analysis. LP votes in Lagos will be a combination of SS/SE and some Yorubas too. 6 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Sammy07: 9:45am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Ttalk: True, we can never say 1 Like |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Sammy07: 9:48am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Ttalk: He tried. But I noticed that he's allocating LP vote based on Religion something. Which he will be wrong, majority of westerners don't vote based on religion. I would prefer, the bulk votes he's giving LP should be given to PDP. Even Ondo could pull a surprise, and go PDP way. 1 Like |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Sammy07: 9:51am On Feb 06, 2023 |
The structure ain't there for Obi, that's the truth If he was the PDP candidate. I'm 100% sure he'll win Ondo, Pull a huge wrestle In Lagos, Ogun and Oyo 2 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 9:58am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Sammy07:SW states also have other voters from other regions living within them and you can't completely rule out religious bias in voters decision. You are right when you said majority of westerners don't vote based on religion. The minority must be accounted for by the way. 2 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Sammy07: 10:06am On Feb 06, 2023 |
chinchum: But the minority are very insignificant? And not all minority will vote one way, some are party members And minority are all from different ethnic groups You are correct about not completely ruling out religion bais |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Waterysperm: 10:09am On Feb 06, 2023 |
I can see you are an Apc man. I would have contributed my own findings but no need. But let me burst your bubble now, Peter Obi is your next president. 7 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by blazesam(m): 10:13am On Feb 06, 2023 |
You get time just sit the write figures up and down |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Neckpresser101: 10:13am On Feb 06, 2023 |
PDP win Delta State and bayelsa? What kind of weed are you smoking are you joking? ๐๐ You didn't add kwankwanso party in kano other k states 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 10:15am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Sammy07:In Lagos for example, SE lagos residents typically votes one way (not less than 85% of them) - It is usually anti Tinubu and PDP is the usual beneficiary. I am ashamed to say, hatred is a big motivator by the way. The SE also have a sizable number of Lagos residents. There are some Yorubas that believe Obi is the answer, they are also a sizable minority (hundreds of thousands in Lagos)and their choice have been accounted for in this projection. 1 Like |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 10:22am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Neckpresser101:This is my analysis you can provide your figures for Delta. At the end. Delta state has their son on the ballot as a spare and you can be rest assured a 25 years continuous PDP party structure winning polls is not a joke. . Kwankwaso votes were largely accounted for in PDP votes and partly in APC votes in Kano. He is loosing supporters daily in his supposed stronghold of NW. He will bow out and pick a side or get in to the polls severely battered. 6 Likes |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Lipscomb(m): 10:23am On Feb 06, 2023 |
that empty skull they are politically naive. [quote author=dat9jaguy post=120675150][/quote] 1 Like |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Lipscomb(m): 10:23am On Feb 06, 2023 |
However I still maintain my initial position that peter obi will not win a single state outside his region. 6 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by garfield1: 10:28am On Feb 06, 2023 |
chinchum: Your predictions is the best so far but pdp cannot win apc in Edo and imo esp Edo.tinubu is more likely to win kebbi than jigawa and katsina.pdp won't get 25% in kwara.their votes in borno,yobe is too high 6 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Neckpresser101: 10:29am On Feb 06, 2023 |
chinchum: Where are you living? Did you see obis campaign at warri and Asaba? Governor's don't have influence on the voting power of the people . Delta state is the most obidient state in SS I kid not go to warri , asaba and sapele even ozoro here sure they'll vote sherrif as governor but be rest assured Delta is obidient . Make we bet 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by chinchum(m): 10:33am On Feb 06, 2023 |
Neckpresser101:His labour party will be his albatross. Nigerian youths will learn what party structure means more after February 25, 2023. Most don't understand it. It is applicable any where in the world. It is stronger in the political terrain like Nigeria. exuberant and noiseful voters only have one votes. 8 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: My 2023 Presidential Election States By States Projection by Liebermantic: 10:39am On Feb 06, 2023 |
In Lagos, Ogun ,Oyo, Osun and Ondo, the Total net gain of votes APC will have from these states above PDP and LP won't exceed 250k which will be cancelled by LP votes alone in Rivers state. In the North Central, whoever between LP and NNPP gets Plateau, Abuja, Benue, and Kogi with huge margin will upset whatever votes APC and PDP have as edge over them in Northwest. Again, Southern Kaduna is voting LP. CENTRAL and Northern Kaduna will be shared by NNPP, PDP and APC. LP has no rival in Southern Kaduna. In Kano, NNPP led by Kwankwaso will get over 60% votes cast and Peter Obi will get over 500k votes from Kano. Screenshot this comment. In Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto it's a two-horse race between APC and PDP, the same with Kebbi, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, Gombe..NNPP and LP will accumulate votes from Christian minorities and Kwankwasiyya group in those states. In the whole of Northwest, LP will get 3 million votes. APC will get 6million votes PDP will get 7.5 million. In the Northeast, PDP will get 4 million votes. APC will have 3.7 million. Labour Party will have 2 million votes. In the North Central, PDP will get 2.5 million votes, APC will have 1.9 million, LP will have 5.4 million. In the Southwest, APC will have 4.6 million, PDP will get 1.8 million. LP will have 4.2 Million. In the South South. LP will get 5.7 million. PDP will get 3.6 APC will get 1.7 million. South east APC will have 800k PDP will have 1.2 Million. LP will have 5.9 million. Screenshot this comment for reference 5 Likes 1 Share |
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