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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... (1476 Views)
Inflation May Hit 30% By December - Stears / Bible Predicts Peter Obi To Win 2023 Presidential Election / 2023: Military Will Stay Out Of Elections If INEC Adopts E-voting —army (2) (3) (4)
Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Jerrytheraregem(m): 10:06am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Stears, a pan-African data company, released the results of a new, predictive electoral poll suggesting a Peter Obi victory by 9 percentage points in a high-turnout scenario and a tighter Tinubu victory in a low-turnout election. To arrive at that conclusion, Stears conducted a statistically significant, nationally representative poll to survey voter preferences and intentions ahead of the 2023 elections. Currently, the Stears poll is the largest public opinion electoral poll on the 2023 Elections with 6,220 Nigerians polled. Read more about the poll here: https:///3ljaFta 2 Likes
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Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by OnyeAshuaUru: 10:07am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Stears is confused. Give us the percentages of poll respondents that said they will vote each of the main presidential candidates and leave prediction for Nairaland resident urchins like garfield1. A new Nigeria is POssible Vote LP 11 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 10:11am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Another one. This is Stears o. Abi na Obi friends still be this I am coming, let me read through the report. Modified: The poll results is very similar to other scientific poll results: Obi wins the SE(by a mile), SS(significantly), NC(slightly) and comes out 2nd in SW(behind Tinubu of course). Whilst Tinubu and Atiku drags the NW(here Kwankwaso is also strong) and NE. Obi, tho still polling behind the field, also seems to be increasing his shares from parts of the NE(likely due to.Christain and minority voters there). I am almost certain as someone who understands statistics that this is what the long expected 3rd NOI/ANAP poll will show later this week when it comes out. It is also what most other unsceintific polls have been showing. Peter Obi is clearly the Leading candidate in this coming Presidential elections( and the worst case scenario for him is to get the elections to a 2nd round). I big take away from this poll result from Stears is that the only scenario where another candidate(Tinubu in this case) beats Obi is if the voter turnout is low(about 35%). Altho this is from their Predictive Model, I hope LP supporters do not play with this info. I beleive it myself. The only way "structure" can be crucial in an election is if the voter tunrout is low cos then party members, candidate loyalist(family members, villagers, members of ethnic or religious groups) as well as those that can be bribed, will be the majority of the voters in the elections. That is when "structure" will matter. See link to the report: https://www.stears.co/premium/article/stears-poll-predicts-nigerias-next-president/ 8 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Cherish233: 10:11am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Lol. |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Svoboda(m): 10:13am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Either way, it is asiwajus to lose event hough Buhari is not granting the apc all the advantages due to it as a ruling party by allowing institutions Interfere in an unholy manner to undermine Its chances. Defeating a ruling party with control of more states than the opposition put together is not a tea party. 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Ezeama400: 10:17am On Feb 07, 2023 |
OBIDIENTS PLEASE ENDEAVOUR TO TURN OUT THAT DAY.. A SINGLE VOTE MATTERS.. TELL YOUR FAMILY, FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES 8 Likes 1 Share
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Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 10:30am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Where is my good friend @garfield1. Food don come Another pool from a highly reputable company that predicts an Obi's win, in almost the same scenario most other polls have also predicted: Obi wins SE, SS and NC. And does well in SW and some other minority parts of the NE/NW. Link: https://www.stears.co/premium/article/stears-poll-predicts-nigerias-next-president/ 5 Likes |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by garfield1: 10:39am On Feb 07, 2023 |
nameo: Obi can't win nc.it also predicts tinubu winner in a low turnout scenario 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Seefinish: 10:45am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Obi is always ahead and will always ahead of others. Proudly Obidient 6 Likes |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 10:45am On Feb 07, 2023 |
garfield1: Lolz... garfield Every single sceintific poll has said Obi will.win the NC. They all cannot be making up this same shitt every single time. This is statistics and data science, guy. It is not dependent on one's "feelings" Bros. It is what it is. Whether you or any other person like it or not PS: See my modified comment (in my 1st comment) on the turnout scenario 7 Likes |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 10:51am On Feb 07, 2023 |
OnyeAshuaUru: The percentage of who the respondents will vote(sample size of about 6500) is in their report. It is Obi of course. Only when they did their Predictive Model of the data that Tinubu slightly wins in one scenario(Low.voters turnout). Obi wins their Predictive Model if voters turnout is high |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Shikini: 10:56am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Anybody but that thief and drug baron |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by MrEverest(m): 11:02am On Feb 07, 2023 |
OnyeAshuaUru: Lol, anyone who understands Nigeria brand of politics already knows that Tinubu is technically out. Right now, I'm more worried about Atiku than Tinubu because he can't possibly win considering how he is being rejected in the North. Already, Tinubu has no base in the SE, SS and among Nigerian Christians both North and South. In other words, Tinubu will need to win all SW states with over 70% margin and still win at least NW or NE to win but that's impossible. He can't win SW with more than 55%. He can only win Kwara, Kogi, Borno and Yobe + 5 or 6 SW states and maybe 1 NW state that will give a total of 11 states maximum for Tinubu. To make matters worse fir him, he can't win any of these states landslide which means opponents will still drag significant votes from those states. This is unlike Peter Obi who will easily win SE and SS landslide. Obi will likely win all 5 SE states, 6 SS states, added to Benue, Plateau, Abuja, and Taraba. That gives a total of 15. Obi also has a good chance of winning Lagos and Nasarawa. While getting more than 25% in Kaduna, Adamawa, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, and Kogi. Atiku will easily win most states in NE and NE but he won't get landslide margins he desperately needs. Also, it has become very difficult for him to get the constitutional requirements of 25% in 24 states since he has lost out in the South. 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by garfield1: 11:13am On Feb 07, 2023 |
nameo: The first poll by anap said obi will tie nc with tinubu.but how will obi win nc? He is only sure of benue,plateau and fct.tinubu has kwara kogi and will best him in niger.obi won't do well in kwara, nger but tinubu will do well in benue,plateau |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by garfield1: 11:15am On Feb 07, 2023 |
MrEverest: You forget that apc and pdp has what it takes to suppress obi votes in ss,se.tinubu will get landslide in borno,yobe,kwara 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Racoon(m): 11:15am On Feb 07, 2023 |
All that is happening now were just a reflection of what happened in 2015 only that APC have further worsened the condition of this country. |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by Efuaye(m): 11:16am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Why is this not pushed to the front page, because it's not rationale? JESSE the father of DAVID found it unbelievable that David his last son (a bush boy) was the Chosen One (King) 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by FreedomfromtheT: 11:19am On Feb 07, 2023 |
I pray that all these favourable polls translate into actual victory for Peter Obi and his running mate this very month in Jesus' name, Amen. 3 Likes |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by ganisucks(f): 11:20am On Feb 07, 2023 |
I only recognize ANAP polls. 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 11:21am On Feb 07, 2023 |
garfield1: Yea, the 1st NOI poll was a tie. But all other polls(including subsequent NOI polls) have given him a slight lead. I think it is cos Obi will do very well in Benue and Plateau, which are the 2 most populated states in the NC. He will also win FCT of course. Of course will also do well in Nasawara. Then he seems to be doing well in Kogi, Niger and even Kwara. He will not win in these states but his chances seem to be increasing , esp for Kogi Like i said previously, it is what it is. This is what the data from various polling companies done scientifically are saying 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by kay1one(m): 11:22am On Feb 07, 2023 |
MrEverest: This is a very intelligent and objective analysis of the state of things 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by kingthreat(m): 11:27am On Feb 07, 2023 |
All these social media permutations sef ![]() If na by so, Burna for win 5 Grammys yesterday. |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by lereinter(m): 11:29am On Feb 07, 2023 |
nameo: Let's bet 50k |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by BlazinGlory40: 11:29am On Feb 07, 2023 |
ganisucks: You should read their report on their site. |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by yarimo(m): 11:30am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Jerrytheraregem:
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Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by OnyeAshuaUru: 11:31am On Feb 07, 2023 |
nameo: Read the notes below the charts, Chief. The stated difference between Low and High turnout scenario s in their confusing predictive model is that, whereas respondents in the Low turnout prediction have their pvc and are certain of who they are going to vote out, respondents in the high turnout scenario includes all eligible voters who are not even sure if they are going to vote. The so-called predictive model is deceptive, or it's meant to dilute the impulse of the losers in this poll. |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by garfield1: 11:32am On Feb 07, 2023 |
nameo: Me and you know he cannot do well from kogi.benue,plateau do not give bloc votes.kwara,niger, gives.I believe the last Bantu poll was the closest |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by lereinter(m): 11:34am On Feb 07, 2023 |
MrEverest: I expect you people to be placing bets with this your showboating obi will win se & ss with landslide - comedy obi can't win any state in nigeria moreover wining with landslide |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 11:35am On Feb 07, 2023 |
garfield1: Hope you know that the last Bantupage poll gave NC to Obi too. Obi was 2nd in Kogi state also(if i am not mistaken) |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 11:38am On Feb 07, 2023 |
OnyeAshuaUru: I know. Predictive Modelling using some Assumptions, which may or may not pan out. I am just saying that in an election, low turnout favours rigging, vote buying and other things that some persons have termed "structure ". People should come out and vote. This is the surest way of ensuring Obi's win. This is the point 1 Like |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by nameo: 11:39am On Feb 07, 2023 |
Ezeama400: This is it. This is really what matters. If this happens, Obi wins easily |
Re: Stears Polls Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The Elections If... by mycar: 11:42am On Feb 07, 2023 |
I will leave my busy schedule and vote for the first time 1 Like |
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