Almost all opinion polls point to obi winning while almost all polls shows tinubu finishing second.but obi is winning in se ss which has a low turnout and tinubu will lead him in ne nw which doubles that of se ss.
In the event that obi gets the highest votes due to high turnout in se/ss and core north is hit by apathy,obi won't meet the spread.assuming he gets 25% in 17 southern states,4 states in nc,kad and two between taraba,Adamawa and gombe,he will have 24 states.but realistically I dont see him getting the spread in osun,ekiti,bayelsa,nasarawa,Adamawa,gombe.I see tinubu having the spread.assuming he has the second highest votes after obi,they will be a runoff...
Obi will still take se/ss.with atiku and kwankwaso out,most of those that voted them in nc will go tinubu.even if they endorse obi,majority of the core north will easily choose Tinubu.so tinubu will win him in a runoff...
In a runoff between obi and atiku,obi has a better chance of winning.atiku will only win ne/nw.



Mynd44
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Let elections cone first, we'll know how far.

Obi for life

Op why including IPOB agenda presidential candidate

Tinubu Vs Obi, Obi will win!

Tinubu Vs Atiku, Atiku will win!

Atiku Vs Obi, Atiku will win!

By the way, OP, it's called a runoff, not a rerun.

Obi will not make any rerun, Show me a pathway for Obi to make top 2

Atiku vs Tinubu. Atiku wins because all the SE states that would have voted for Obi in first round will vote Atiku in 2nd round

Tinubu has to win at first ballot otherwise he will lose

raumdeuter:
Obi will not make any rerun, Show me a pathway for Obi to make top 2

Atiku vs Tinubu. Atiku wins because all the SE states that would have voted for Obi in first round will vote Atiku in 2nd round

Tinubu has to win at first ballot otherwise he will lose

Amadioha has spoken

garfield1:

Their will be low turnout in the north because Buhari they trusted so much in 2015 and cameout in mass to vote for him and disappointed them, that's why Tinubu recorded low turnout in Kaduna, Kastina and Yobe

post=120711193:

Their will be low turnout in the north because Buhari they trusted so much in 2015 and cameout in mass to vote for him and disappointed them, that's why Tinubu recorded low turnout in Kaduna, Kastina and Yobe

There was no low turnout in yobe and kaduna.that you saw few unfilled spaces doesn't mean low turnout.atiku recorded high turnout in katsina and bauchi,does that not mean they will be high turnout? Stop confusing yourself

SmartPolician:
Tinubu Vs Obi, Obi will win!

Tinubu Vs Atiku, Atiku will win!

Atiku Vs Obi, Atiku will win!

By the way, OP, it's called a runoff, not a rerun.

Tinubu will actually thrash obi

garfield1:


Tinubu will actually thrash obi

Trash! Trasher!! Trashiest!

Go and sleep.

Let's wait for the real thing.

SmartPolician:


Trash! Trasher!! Trashiest!

Go and sleep.

Let's wait for the real thing.

The real thing is here,obi is going nowhere

garfield1:


Tinubu will actually thrash obi

Same way you predicted Andy Uba to win Anambra.Imagine saying you don't see Obi winning Bayelsa and Nassarawa.I wonder how you think Christains that are not apc members will vote Muslim Muslim ticket when many apc Christians are leaving the party becos of it.Keep dreaming

garfield1:
All opinion polls point to obi winning while almost all polls shows tinubu finishing second.but obi is winning in se ss which has a low turnout and tinubu will lead him in ne nw which doubles that of se ss.
In the event that obi gets the highest votes due to high turnout in se/ss and core north is hit by apathy,obi won't meet the spread.assuming he gets 25% in 17 southern states,4 states in nc,kad and two between taraba,Adamawa and gombe,he will have 24 states.but realistically I dont see him getting the spread in osun,ekiti,bayelsa,nasarawa,Adamawa,gombe.I see tinubu having the spread.assuming he has the second highest votes after obi,they will be a runoff...
Obi will still take se/ss.with atiku and kwankwaso out,most of those that voted them in nc will go tinubu.even if they endorse obi,majority of the core north will easily choose Tinubu.so tinubu will win him in a runoff...
In a runoff between obi and atiku,obi has a better chance of winning.atiku will only win ne/nw.



Mynd44
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Tinubu VS Obi; Obi loses...
Atiku Vs Obi; Obi loses...
Tinubu VS Atiku; Tinubu loses.....

Obi is actually performing well in the poll is because of the presence of Tinubu and Atiku, Otherwise, Obi will lose massively!

vicdom:

Tinubu VS Obi; Obi loses...
Atiku Vs Obi; Obi loses...
Tinubu VS Atiku; Tinubu loses.....

Obi is actually performing well in the poll is because of the presence of Tinubu and Atiku, Otherwise, Obi will lose massively!

I agree...but obi has a good chance with atiku

garfield1:


I agree...but obi has a good chance with atiku

Tinubu must try and win on the first ballot, otherwise, if Atiku makes it to the rerun, Atiku is winning no matter who he's contesting against.
Tinubu might get the popular votes, but may not get the spread. Vote buying would have helped him get the spread, but with what's happening now, he will struggle very well in getting the spread.

Garfield is "Mr Structure" himself and even he has been completely blown away by the obidient movement so much so that he is predicting millions of votes for LP in just one region when the best structureless party in the last election didn’t even smell 200k votes in the whole of the Country!

He is now hypothesising a run-off between Obi and Tinubu. If you're obidient, you should be delighted with these projections by Mr Garfield.

The movement is simply an unstoppable force.

garfield1:


I agree...but obi has a good chance with atiku

Atiku will thrash Obi ooo... No even go there. SW won't vote Obi massively as North would vote for Atiku. Obi can only win Atiku is sw will give Obi at least 60%, but it's not going to happen.

vicdom:

Tinubu must try and win on the first ballot, otherwise, if Atiku makes it to the rerun, Atiku is winning no matter who he's contesting against.
Tinubu might get the popular votes, but may not get the spread. Vote buying would have helped him get the spread, but with what's happening now, he will struggle very well in getting the spread.

True,tinubu vs atiku runoff is a waste.no need to argue.but based on all opinion polls,tinubu vs obi runoff is more likely.i think obi gets the highest votes while tinubu gets the spread.

Vote buying is not a huge factor because atiku too buys votes.obi self will try to even buy votes.the difference would be who exerts more powers at the rural areas

vicdom:


Atiku will thrash Obi ooo... No even go there. SW won't vote Obi massively as North would vote for Atiku. Obi can only win Atiku is sw will give Obi at least 60%, but it's not going to happen.

All obi needs to do is to win nc and sw or share it.north is not mad about atiku the way they are with buhari.they are just managing atiku as a last option

garfield1:


All obi needs to do is to win nc and sw or share it.north is not mad about atiku the way they are with buhari.they are just managing atiku as a last option

You might be right, but PDP structure will help Atiku win. Obi is still in the race (even though I still don't believe he will win) because of Atiku and Tinubu.

vicdom:


Atiku will thrash Obi ooo... No even go there. SW won't vote Obi massively as North would vote for Atiku. Obi can only win Atiku is sw will give Obi at least 60%, but it's not going to happen.

Why do you think so?

Are you saying that SW will vote Atiku over Obi? That is very unlikely. Think 2011 Bros.

If there is a runoff(and that is a likelihood), it will be easier for Obi to win Atiku than Tinubu.

I think that Obi will win any runoff

garfield1:
All opinion polls point to obi winning while almost all polls shows tinubu finishing second.but obi is winning in se ss which has a low turnout and tinubu will lead him in ne nw which doubles that of se ss.
In the event that obi gets the highest votes due to high turnout in se/ss and core north is hit by apathy,obi won't meet the spread.assuming he gets 25% in 17 southern states,4 states in nc,kad and two between taraba,Adamawa and gombe,he will have 24 states.but realistically I dont see him getting the spread in osun,ekiti,bayelsa,nasarawa,Adamawa,gombe.I see tinubu having the spread.assuming he has the second highest votes after obi,they will be a runoff...
Obi will still take se/ss.with atiku and kwankwaso out,most of those that voted them in nc will go tinubu.even if they endorse obi,majority of the core north will easily choose Tinubu.so tinubu will win him in a runoff...
In a runoff between obi and atiku,obi has a better chance of winning.atiku will only win ne/nw.



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I dont even believe theres going to be a run off. Our electoral history has some perculiarities that dont promote a run off.
That said, you reechoed my thoughts as well. One thing consistent with most of the polls is that tinubu always comes 2nd to obi. Every discerning mind knows obi wont win. Dont be too surprised the polls are being rigged in obis favor.

Svoboda:


I dont even believe theres going to be a run off. Our electoral history has some perculiarities that dont promote a run off.
That said, you reechoed my thoughts as well. One thing consistent with most of the polls is that tinubu always comes 2nd to obi. Every discerning mind knows obi wont win. Dont be too surprised the polls are being rigged in obis favor.

True because most of the polls are conducted by people aligned to obi.again,se ss turnout is usually low and most of the polls are from the urban areas

garfield1:


True because most of the polls are conducted by people aligned to obi.again,se ss turnout is usually low and most of the polls are from the urban areas

Bantupage and Nextier are from both urban and rural areas. Same with NOI

I will be here to burst una distortions

Svoboda:


I dont even believe theres going to be a run off. Our electoral history has some perculiarities that dont promote a run off.
That said, you reechoed my thoughts as well. One thing consistent with most of the polls is that tinubu always comes 2nd to obi. Every discerning mind knows obi wont win. Dont be too surprised the polls are being rigged in obis favor.

LMAO

Na una new scope be this now?

The man who wins in EVERY poll done will not actually win, but the person that came 2nd in most(not even all) will win.

How shameless can you chaps get?

Atiku Obi Atiku

Atiku Tinubu Atiku

Obi Tinubu Obi

Atiku is the most favoured for a run off and Tinubu is the most Vulnerable

Lol

Is it only me that is seeing what is happening? Atiku is clearly running away with this election and people are talking about Obi. Na waoh.

If for any reason this election heads to run-off, which I don’t see happening, the following will be the outcome:

Atiku - Obi. Atiku wins
Atiku - Tinubu. Atiku wins landslide

Just as an academic exercise cos this situation can never happen with realities on ground;

Obi - Tinubu. 50/50 chance.

garfield1:
All opinion polls point to obi winning while almost all polls shows tinubu finishing second.but obi is winning in se ss which has a low turnout and tinubu will lead him in ne nw which doubles that of se ss.
In the event that obi gets the highest votes due to high turnout in se/ss and core north is hit by apathy,obi won't meet the spread.assuming he gets 25% in 17 southern states,4 states in nc,kad and two between taraba,Adamawa and gombe,he will have 24 states.but realistically I dont see him getting the spread in osun,ekiti,bayelsa,nasarawa,Adamawa,gombe.I see tinubu having the spread.assuming he has the second highest votes after obi,they will be a runoff...
Obi will still take se/ss.with atiku and kwankwaso out,most of those that voted them in nc will go tinubu.even if they endorse obi,majority of the core north will easily choose Tinubu.so tinubu will win him in a runoff...
In a runoff between obi and atiku,obi has a better chance of winning.atiku will only win ne/nw.



Mynd44
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Atiku will clearly win a runoff with either APC or LP

SmartPolician:
Tinubu Vs Obi, Obi will win!

Tinubu Vs Atiku, Atiku will win!

Atiku Vs Obi, Atiku will win!

By the way, OP, it's called a runoff, not a rerun.

Exactly