Firstly, this thread is strictly for OBIDIENTS; but BATists and ATIKUlators are welcome to pour in their bad energy (it's a free world).

The presidential election is in a few weeks and from my personal analysis, while it's looking bright that the LP may win the highest number of votes nationwide, it doesn't seem like it can pull 25% of votes in 24 states (I may be wrong).

A run-off would be a disaster for the OBIDIENT movement cos I foresee supporters of PDAPC (two parties with similar lootocratic ideologies) teaming up to punish OBI in a run-off.

So the big questions are:

1. Can OBI pull 25% of votes in up to 24 states?
2. What states can OBI pull 25% of votes?
3. What additional states can more work be done to tilt the scale?

It's time for OBI O'CLOCK

Obi that is not even sure of Anambra state

Yes,he can win

Reach me for your , proposal's, project writing, power point presentation, thesis e.t.c

For more information check my signature and contact me

From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

yarimo:
Obi that is not even sure of Anambra state

No time for JOKERS here abeg!

Ogun state? 🥺🥺🥺🥺

If Obi doesn't win on the first ballot, a runoff will be hard for him to win because the other two major candidates are more popular than him in the north.

I want to see Nigeria's presidential election end in a runoff someday. I want to have a first-hand experience.

Obi can pull 25% in Kano and Gombe states. He is just one step closer to victory. He will also most likely score the highest votes cast

SmartPolician:
If Obi doesn't win on the first ballot, a runoff will be hard for him to win because the other two major candidates are more popular than him in the north.

I want to see Nigeria's presidential election end in a runoff someday. I want to have a first-hand experience.

A runoff would be a disaster for OBI cos the larger percentage of PDP/APC supporters are people who actually dislike OBI (either for his tribe or just for his audacity to challenge the system). In a runoff, these people would gladly vote 'anything but OBI'.

Obi will get that with ease. He will win the South-south and East which is 11 states. He will get 25% in the 6 Western States. I repeat he will get 25% in all the Southwest states and that brings it up to 17 states. Now add the following states: Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. You may be surprised I added Niger and Kwara. Tinubu will win Kwara but Obi will get 25%. Anybody can bet 50k on this with me. As for Niger state, the Christians there are solidly behind him. I am so sure of what I am saying. Most people don't know that there are about 35% to 40% Christians in Niger state. That is why the Christians there have vowed that any political party that failed to have a Christian deputy will lose the next governorship election. Now add the 17 states of the South and 6 states of the North Central and it will give you 23 states. Now add Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe and Kaduna. That is a total of 27 states.
Bookmark this post for future reference. Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

BeardedmeatR:
Obi can pull 25% in Kano and Gombe states. He is just one step closer to victory.

I'm not really sure of the mix in Gombe, but 25% from Kano?

LP votes from Kano would most likely be ethnic; i.e. from Igbos living in Kano. Can this really make up to 25% of votes in Kano?

Waterysperm:
Obi will get that with ease. He will win the South-south and East which is 11 states. He will get 25% in the 6 Western States. I repeat he will get 25% in all the Southwest states and that brings it up to 17 states. Now add the following states: Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. You may be surprised I added Niger and Kwara. Tinubu will win Kwara but Obi will get 25%. Anybody can bet 50k on this with me. As for Niger state, the Christians there are solidly behind him. I am so sure if what I am saying. Most people don't know that there are about 35% to 40% Christians in Niger state. That is why the Christians have vowed that any political party that failed to have a Christian deputy will lose the next governorship election. Now add the 17 states of the South and 6 states of the North Central and it will give you 23 states. Now add Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe and Kaduna. That is a total of 27 states.
Bookmark this post for future reference. Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

Are you sure Obi can get 25% in kwara?

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Gombe will give him 25%. I will stake 50k with anyone that disagrees with my opinion.

Of course he can, I don't see a rerun

Mjshexy:
Absolutely he can, I don't see a rerun

You are right

Waterysperm:


Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Gombe will give him 25%. I will stake 50k with anyone that disagrees with my opinion.

Hmmm .. I really hope so... I even trust Gombe more than the other 3 central states you mentioned.

BlazinGlory40:


Are you sure Obi can get 25% in kwara?

I am so sure Bro. I want any dissenting voice from the other side to bet with me on that. Now let me tell you this, due to this fuel scarcity and naira redesign, Obi's popularity is now growing like wildfire especially in the Northwestern part of the Country. What if I tell you that Obi may get 25% in Kano state and Katsina. Mind you, I used 'may' because I am not so sure. But I am ready to stake 50k with anybody ready to bet with me that there is a state in the Southwest that Obi won't get 25%. I don't make hearsay permutations Bro. So if Obi gets 25% in the Southern part of the country, is it ordinary 7 states in the north that he won't get 25%. I am in the field ok. Now let me burst your bubble and remember that I said so. Obi MAY win Kogi state. The state is between him and Tinubu. Any Atiku fan can stake with me on that, Obi will do better than Atiku in Kogi.

haffaze777:
Ogun state? 🥺🥺🥺🥺

I can stake 70k for Ogun state, just stake 50k ok. Obi will get 25% in Ogun state.

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. ra

That Obi has 25% in even 36 states doesn't mean he also has the highest votes. Another party could have the highest votes and therefore the winner.

RenaissanceGuy:
That Obi has 25% in even 36 states doesn't mean he also has the highest votes. Another party could have the highest votes and therefore the winner.

Yeah of course a candidate can win 25% in all 36 states but still not have the highest number of votes, but that isnt the case for OBI in the coming elections.

With the way things stand now, as long as none of the other 3 top contenders gives up and pulls out of the race before the 25th of February, OBI is already projected to have the highest number of votes with just the first 14 states I listed there.

BeardedmeatR:
Obi can pull 25% in Kano and Gombe states. He is just one step closer to victory. He will also most likely score the highest votes cast

Sabon gari in kano plus other Kano votes can give him 25% ,Obi should do work in suleja in Niger State , kwara , Nupe side of Niger, etc

obailala:
Yeah of course a candidate can win 25% in all 36 states but still not have the highest number of votes, but that isnt the case for OBI in the coming elections.

With the way things stand now, as long as none of the other 3 top contenders gives up and pulls out of the race before the 25th of February, OBI is already projected to have the highest number of votes with just the first 14 states I listed there.

I don't think Obi will win. The election is strictly between Tinubu and Atiku. Sadly.

RenaissanceGuy:
I don't think Obi will win. The election is strictly between Tinubu and Atiku. Sadly.

Lol... saying the election is between Tinubu and Atiku just gives you away. Wake up and smell the coffee bro - What you have there is called 'wishful thinking'!!!

In an election with 4 top contenders, with OBI already projected to grab up to 14 (out of 36) states + FCT, OBI is a major force to contend with.

Waterysperm:

I can stake 70k for Ogun state, just stake 50k ok. Obi will get 25% in Ogun state.

I ain't a gambler but I will be here to remind you after Feb 25

This election for Peter Obi. I can tell how he will win

BlazinGlory40:


Are you sure Obi can get 25% in kwara?

Why not? We full kwara here though he might not win total votes in the state however christians here go give am 25% Saraki influence on PDP and present Governor APC go share the remaining.

obailala:
Firstly, this thread is strictly for OBIDIENTS; but BATists and ATIKUlators are welcome to pour in their bad energy (it's a free world).

The presidential election is in a few weeks and from my personal analysis, while it's looking bright that the LP may win the highest number of votes nationwide, it doesn't seem like it can pull 25% of votes in 24 states (I may be wrong).

A run-off would be a disaster for the OBIDIENT movement cos I foresee supporters of PDAPC (two parties with similar lootocratic ideologies) teaming up to punish OBI in a run-off.

So the big questions are:

1. Can OBI pull 25% of votes in up to 24 states?
2. What states can OBI pull 25% of votes?
3. What additional states can more work be done to tilt the scale?

From all I've seen it is tough but POssible.

A run-off would be far from a disaster especially if he wins the popular vote on the first ballot.

It's very hard to gauge how the other parties and even the general population would react to that. There could be a sentiment that he deserves it, even in unexpected regions

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

I really do think Obi should revisit the South East and the South South states again. The strategy shouldn't just be getting 25% in 24 states (which isn't very likely) it should also include ensuring the opposition do not get the required 25% in states that should traditionally be Obi's stronghold.

It will be disappointing if any of Atiku gets 25% in any of the south eastern states. Efforts should also be intensified to ensure Obi gains more ground in the south especially in states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Even if Obi doesn't win ok first ballot, efforts should be made to ensure he makes second ballot (only the top 2 candidates will qualify). The sheer possiblity of Peter Obi making it to the last round will further inspire more people to come out enmass to vote. It will make people realize their votes count.

I believe Obi should make 25% in Ogun and Nasarawa and Taraba. Ogun has major cities like Abeokuta, Ota, Ijebu with a significant young and literate voting population who should swing Obi. Major Abuja folks living in Nasarawa with the significant Christian population should be enough to get him 25%. Taraba is majority Christian, Obi should also hit 25% here.

I worry more about the South East and South South. Of course he will get the 25% here, but should the opposition gain significant inroad here, it's game over.

kettykin:



Sabon gari in kano plus other Kano votes can give him 25% ,Obi should do work in suleja in Niger State , kwara , Nupe side of Niger, etc

Obi won't get 25% in Kano. Just not possible.

Kano had over 2.1 million total vote in 2015, this year should be significantly more. But let's assume 2 million people vote, 25% will be 500k votes for Obi. Just do not see that happening. We should focus on states where this is possible like Kaduna, Kebbi, Taraba etc.

wegevv:


From all I've seen it is tough but POssible.

A run-off would be far from a disaster especially if he wins the popular vote on the first ballot.

It's very hard to gauge how the other parties and even the general population would react to that. There could be a sentiment that he deserves it, even in unexpected regions

lovewins:


I really do think Obi should revisit the South East and the South South states again. The strategy shouldn't just be getting 25% in 24 states (which isn't very likely) it should also include ensuring the opposition do not get the required 25% in states that should traditionally be Obi's stronghold.

It will be disappointing if any of Atiku gets 25% in any of the south eastern states. Efforts should also be intensified to ensure Obi gains more ground in the south especially in states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Even if Obi doesn't win ok first ballot, efforts should be made to ensure he makes second ballot (only the top 2 candidates will qualify). The sheer possiblity of Peter Obi making it to the last round will further inspire more people to come out enmass to vote. It will make people realize their votes count.

I believe Obi should make 25% in Ogun and Nasarawa and Taraba. Ogun has major cities like Abeokuta, Ota, Ijebu with a significant young and literate voting population who should swing Obi. Major Abuja folks living in Nasarawa with the significant Christian population should be enough to get him 25%. Taraba is majority Christian, Obi should also hit 25% here.

I worry more about the South East and South South. Of course he will get the 25% here, but should the opposition gain significant inroad here, it's game over.

From current projections, if OBI doesn't win on first ballot, it's almost certainly game-over!

The key reason OBI has a high chance today is because the votes in the north are shared by the other 3 top contenders. If there's a run-off, northern votes would no longer be shared.

If the run-off is between OBI and Tinubu, you'd agree with me that whilst the majority of the northern PDP voters may not necessarily like Tinubu, most would gravitate towards a Tinubu over an OBI (largely due to tribal / religious sentiments).

Similarly, if the run-off is between OBI and Atiku, with the distasteful intertribal aggression between the SE and SW, would OBI really be able to inherit Tinubu's south western votes? Would current APC supporters in the SW pick an OBI over an Atiku in a run-off?

However the case goes, I don't think a run-off will favour OBI. Whilst its important that OBI consolidates his votes in his strongholds, it's also imperative that he wins the election on first ballot.

Even if you conduct the election 10 times, Obi cannot win