https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpSAZSmPll8

Compilation of street poll by MARABOX TV in Ogun State.

I have screenshot the final tally below but worth watching the video itself.

Quite a few yoruba speakers went against APC which was great to see.

According to most other scientific polls Ogun is meant to be only the third best state for LP in the southwest after Lagos and Ondo so these numbers are surprising.

APC's structure better be strong because we're going to be bulldozing into it in every single region.

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Thoughts?

Penguin2
Garfield1
Eriokanmi

The Only SW State Thiefnubuu will win is Ekiti.

Obi will Sweep Ogun, Lagos and Ondo.

Atiku will edge Oyo and Osun

Thiefnubuu will manage Ekiti

27* 2= 54

wegevv:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpSAZSmPll8

Compilation of street poll by MARABOX TV in Ogun State.

I have screenshot the final tally below but worth watching the video itself.

Quite a few yoruba speakers went against APC which was great to see.

According to most other scientific polls Ogun is meant to be only the third best state for LP in the southwest after Lagos and Ondo so these numbers are surprising.

APC's structure better be strong because we're going to be bulldozing into it in every single region.

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Thoughts?

Penguin2
Garfield1
Eriokanmi

Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

Hmm. If you say so lol

So Tinubu is not popular in urban areas in his own region and he wants to win election under the party that has given us the worst federal government in our country's history?

This structure must be made of graphene because the people are going to be smashing into it on election day

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

You know this how?

You have started again o, garfield my good fwend.

By the way, this is just an example of the unscientific polls i was talking about. Again, and again, Obi is doing very well in SE, SS, SW and NC(even when villagers are sampled in NC)

LAXconfidential:


Oponu, this is how you guys keep creating excuses upon excuses until the inevitable is staring you in the face. If the fact that Obi who has the SS and SE on lock is still beating your balablu in a state in a region which he has held captive doesn't reset your brain, I swear nothing will. You will remain an urchin for life!

Ss is divided

garfield1:


Ss is divided

If SE politicians cannot guarantee Atiku a win, SS politicians cannot either. It's not a game of ethnicity, it has more to do with religion. Have you seen the cult-like following Obi has in Edo? Do you think they love him that much because he's Igbo? No. The same sentiment is shared in Akwa Ibom, Cross River, and Rivers state. Where Atiku may manage to see 25% is in Bayelsa. But he will still not win any SS state. For Thiefnubuu to win this election without SE and SS, he needs to poll 80% of northern votes. Which is impossible at the moment, so I wonder how you cannot see that Peter Obi is your next GCFR.

LAXconfidential:


If SE politicians cannot guarantee Atiku a win, SS politicians cannot either. It's not a game of ethnicity, it has more to do with religion. Have you seen the cult-like following Obi has in Edo? Do you think they love him that much because he's Igbo? No. The same sentiment is shared in Akwa Ibom, Cross River, and Rivers state. Where Atiku may manage to see 25% is in Bayelsa. But he will still not win any SS state. For Thiefnubuu to win this election without SE and SS, he needs to poll 80% of northern votes. Which is impossible at the moment, so I wonder how you cannot see that Peter Obi is your next GCFR.

Tinubu needs 40% of northern votes which will neutralize ss se votes.the obi sentiment is mostly in delta,rivers and edo

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

I wouldn't dispute this. This is most likely Ota area (and Ota is adjacent Lagos).

Like I said earlier, Obi will have significant vote in this Ota, Abeokuta, Ijebu and major urban areas in Ogun state. He'll also have the most vote with college educated electorate even outside this areas. Getting at least 25% here shouldn't be a problem.

garfield1:


Tinubu needs 40% of northern votes which will neutralize ss se votes.the obi sentiment is mostly in delta,rivers and edo

Let's assume you're right. Let's assume that your insinuation that Akwa Ibom and Cross River people see themselves as 2nd class citizens is correct and that they choose to vote either Atiku or Tinubu, Obi will still win. He has votes coming in massively from Plateau and Benue/Southern Kaduna. Don't also forget the trickles from Nasarawa and Niger state. When you add the votes you dashed the guy with a dual Muslim ticket, and the other guy who wants to succeed his muslim kins man, I ask again, how do you not see that Peter Obi is your next GCFR?

alsudan:
The Only SW State Thiefnubuu will win is Ekiti.

Obi will Sweep Ogun, Lagos and Ondo.

Atiku will edge Oyo and Osun

Thiefnubuu will manage Ekiti

You would expect Ekiti folks to be the liberal sets of Yorubas...but no they are not. They are very closed minded with all their education. Ekiti Kete people dey fall my hand no be small.

lovewins:


I wouldn't dispute this. This is most likely Ota area (and Ota is adjacent Lagos).

Like I said earlier, Obi will have significant vote in this Ota, Abeokuta, Ijebu and major urban areas in Ogun state. He'll also have the most vote with college educated electorate even outside this areas. Getting at least 25% here shouldn't be a problem.

So definitely more than the 10% our nairaland chief statistician is predicting

PS: What are your thoughts on Obi's chances for 25% in Osun, Oyo and Ekiti?

garfield1:
Ogun
Apc 70%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%

alsudan:
The Only SW State Thiefnubuu will win is Ekiti.

Obi will Sweep Ogun, Lagos and Ondo.

Atiku will edge Oyo and Osun

Thiefnubuu will manage Ekiti

Even Ekiti may go to Obi, a state that is more than 70% Christians with a high ratio of graduates.

FreedomfromtheT:
Even Ekiti may go to Obi, a state that is more than 70% Christians with a high ratio of graduates.

LAXconfidential:


Let's assume you're right. Let's assume that your insinuation that Akwa Ibom and Cross River people see themselves as 2nd class citizens is correct and that they choose to vote either Atiku or Tinubu, Obi will still win. He has votes coming in massively from Plateau and Benue/Southern Kaduna. Don't also forget the trickles from Nasarawa and Niger state. When you add the votes you dashed the guy with a dual Muslim ticket, and the other guy who wants to succeed his muslim kins man, I ask again, how do you not see that Peter Obi is your next GCFR?

He will win benue and plateau but they dont give massive votes.he will lose in kad and niger badly so his votes there won't matter.tinubu will tie him in nc and finish him in ss.obi will be buried in places like zamfara,katsina,sokoto

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

The ones in the rural follow the Urban.


I hear say for town na obi dey rain


That's how people in rural will in turn vote Obi.

Use your brain. Small pikin suppose know that.

wegevv:


So definitely more than the 10% our nairaland chief statistician is predicting

PS: What are your thoughts on Obi's chances for 25% in Osun, Oyo and Ekiti?

Oyo is slightly similar to Ogun state. Obi should do well in Ibadan, Ogbomosho, Ife and other similar cities and towns. With high turnout of new voters he should also get 25% here. Oyo state traditionally votes in blocks with each part of the state having a political godfather that controls votes. I really do not think Obi has sway there except maybe Makinde at the last minute swing towards Obi. Obi's primary voting population is with the college educated, and new voters. I'm still looking for data to find out how many persons newly registered to vote in these states, it will give you an idea of what to come. Those who traditionally tow party or tribal lines aren't likely to be new voters.

Ekiti is the most educated south western state, paradoxically the way they vote is a mystery. Not sure of Obi hitting 25% here, same as Osun. A miracle could happen though.

garfield1:


He will win benue and plateau but they dont give massive votes.he will lose in kad and niger badly so his votes there won't matter.tinubu will tie him in nc and finish him in ss.obi will be buried in places like zamfara,katsina,sokoto

Where I think you are making a mistake is basing your predictions primarily on 2019/2023 election data. What does the new registration say?

Also, Bvas will significantly reduce the large votes that come from northern Nigeria. If there is high voters turnout, Obi is at an advantage. Those who vote traditional across party line are already captured in previous election data. Most new voters go Obi, I dare say irrespective of demographics.

garfield1:


Tinubu needs 40% of northern votes which will neutralize ss se votes.the obi sentiment is mostly in delta,rivers and edo

So Akwa Ibom where Obi wife hails from will vote against their inlaw and ruin their daughters chance of being the first lady of Nigeria right? You are doing well, bru

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

Are you minding those ones ? I reside in Abeokuta and I can tell you for real Tinubu will clear this town . All these street polls are arranged and manipulated

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

Tinubu doesn’t stand a chance in this election.

🤣🤣🤣🤣 Feb 25 should quickly come and go,make one oloriburuku no call us betrayal after general election sha.

garfield1:


Mostly conducted in urban areas.once you get to the rural areas,you hardly find obi fans.the apc structure will supprws his votes

The part wey sweet me pass na that Yoruba market woman wey shout 'Peter Obi ni ooooo!'....

I sure say hot shiit comot for your urchin nyash when that woman shout 'Obi ni oooo!'.

Wahala for Amoda.

Would have loved to hear more Northerners speak sha

Way to go

Vote PETER OBI

Vote Labour party

alsudan:
The Only SW State Thiefnubuu will win is Ekiti.

Obi will Sweep Ogun, Lagos and Ondo.

Atiku will edge Oyo and Osun

Thiefnubuu will manage Ekiti

Try and be taking your drugs as and when due

Penguin2:


Tinubu doesn’t stand a chance in this election.

He has the biggest chance actually.I just finished an argument with four guys who are staunch pdp guys.they are supporting atiku.I begged them to support obi,they refused.

nwadikeokey11:
So Akwa Ibom where Obi wife hails from will vote against their inlaw and ruin their daughters chance of being the first lady of Nigeria right? You are doing well, bru

Are you saying that delta will vote for tinubu because of remi?

lovewins:



Where I think you are making a mistake is basing your predictions primarily on 2019/2023 election data. What does the new registration say?

Also, Bvas will significantly reduce the large votes that come from northern Nigeria. If there is high voters turnout, Obi is at an advantage. Those who vote traditional across party line are already captured in previous election data. Most new voters go Obi, I dare say irrespective of demographics.

I am basing my data from 1999 and beyond.those core north are averse to christian southerners.bvas will reduce votes up north but it will even reduce more in south as we dont vote while northerners vote more..

The new registration does not make a difference.in 2019 polls,we had 14 mil new registrations and almost 13 mil collected PVCs yet there was no significant change.this year,we had 9 mil new registrations and I know PVC collection won't exceed 8 million so it will not change anything.
Most of those polls are giving obi se and ss and nc narrowly which means if pdp or apc put pressure on nc,obi will lose. Se and ss turnout is usually low

garfield1:



He has the biggest chance actually.I just finished an argument with four guys who are staunch pdp guys.they are supporting atiku.I begged them to support obi,they refused.

Thank you Garfield. May God bless your PDP friends. APC are rejected for giving us the worst federal government in the history of our country. They need to be disgraced and humiliated at the polls in 2 weeks time. A narrow defeat won't be enough.

If we are lucky the message will be loud and clear so that our future leaders can take heed

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC <3

Light78:



The ones in the rural follow the Urban.


I hear say for town na obi dey rain


That's how people in rural will in turn vote Obi.

Use your brain. Small pikin suppose know that.

Most times,they dont.atiku won urban areas but lost rural areas