I have taken my Time to study historical data from 1999 election until date to understand Peter Obi's chance in the north, I discovered that Peter Obi has a chance to secure at least 25% in these states (according to the data evidence)

1. Adamawa
2. Plateau
3. Taraba
4. Benue
5. Nasarawa
6. Kogi
7. Kaduna

Figures from elections since 1999 suggest that:.


1. These states are religious battle grounds. They do not vote like thr typical northwest and northeastern states. Religion plays a vital role in their voting pattern.

2. These states have considerable number of Christian voters who will always vote a Christian to prove a point to their Muslim neighbors.

3. These states are the only northern states in Nigeria that always deliver at least 25% to a top Christian contender in every election.

4. As northern as Taraba and Adamawa are. Buhari lost Taraba to Jonathan in 2015 and Adamawa delivered 40% to Jonathan. Most of the other PDP states in the north, Jonathan couldn't get 25%.

5. No Muslim has ever become Governor in Taraba and no Muslim has ever won Taraba state in a presidential election when a top Christian is on the ballot.

6. Other states metioned have consistently delivered 25% to a Christian candidate since they were created or since 1960.


The evidence is there for everyone to see. You can go through the historical data to confirm.

This is why Peter Obi is targeting these places in his campaign. He knows these figures, he has to allocate his scarce resources to where he thinks matters. There's no amount of investment he will do in other northern states that will make any difference for him

Peter obi for president

This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Hello, I must say this is a wonderful post. Thank you for putting in the effort to share such valuable information with us.

Trollronaldo:
Mynd44, do the needful please

Hahahahah

Are you running away from the truth?

Why crying if you were not mentioned?

W

Trollronaldo:
I have been taken by Time to study historical data from 1999 election until date to understand Peter Obi's chance in the north, I discovered that Peter Obi has a chance to secure at least 25% in these states (according to the data evidence)

1. Adamawa
2. Plateau
3. Taraba
4. Benue
5. Nasarawa
6. Kogi
7. Kaduna

Figures from elections since 1999 suggest that:.


1. These states are religious battle grounds. They do not vote like thr typical northwest and northeastern states. Religion plays a vital role in their voting pattern.

2. These states have considerable number of Christian voters who will always vote a Christian to prove a point to their Muslim neighbors.

3. These states are the only northern states in Nigeria that always deliver at least 25% to a top Christian contender in every election.

4. As northern as Taraba and Adamara. Buhari lost Taraba to Jonathan in 2015 and Adamawa delivered 40% to Jonathan. Most of the other PDP states in the north, Jonathan couldn't get 25%.

5. No Muslim has ever become Governor in Taraba and no Muslim has ever won Taraba state in a presidential election when a top Christian is on the ballot.

6. Other states metioned have consistently delivered 25% to a Christian candidate since they were created or since 1960.


The evidence is there for everyone to see. You can go through the historical data to confirm.

This is why Peter Obi is targeting these places in his campaign. He knows these figures, he has to allocate his scarce resources to where he thinks matters. There's no amount of investment he will do in other northern states that will make any difference for him

Good analysis.

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians, Northern christian, Igbo voters.

It reeks of sentiment and not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

are we not being realistic again?

You see those states that I mentioned?
Thy will deliver at least 25% to Obi. It's not a debate.

Just wait and see

Trollronaldo:
are we not being realistic again?

You see those states that I mentioned?
Thy will deliver at least 25% to Obi. It's not a debate.

Just wait and see

I never started an argument, did I?

lhordspy:


I never started an argument, did I?

am I arguing?

Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

wegevv:
Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

I don't see any candidate getting 25% in 24 states.

This election is going to a rerun

wegevv:
Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

But if you ask me, I can place a bet that Obi will get 25% in at least
Kaduna
Nassarawa
Benue
Taraba
Plateau

I am not 100% certain about Kogi and Adamawa for the benefit of doubt

Obi, Tinubu Nd Atiku all of them dey crase, dem dey fight for themselves Nd family ne

I always laugh at those who think Obi don't have a chance in the north.

Most of them think that north starts and ends in Kano and Sokoto. They are clowns.

Obi will get a lot of votes in northeasr and might win northcentral. Northcentral usually do not agree with northwest. Adamawa and Taraba usually vote like northcentral.

If Obi doesn't have the chance of getting northern votes, I would have not been rooting for him. I know what I am seeing.

I fear a rerun will happen and that will be a disadvantage to LP but nontheles. Obi is winning 3 out of that 7 states & getting needed 25% in the rest.

Above all if people are truly tired of PDAPC then Mr Peter Obi will cruise to victory.
As for Southwest forget the noise from APC camp those guys are not been called sophisticated for nothing. An average Yoruba man loves competency, integrity and good governance, these and more qualities of a good leader the can't find in tinubu.

Don't judge them by the social media buzz, even the agbadorians are aware of this.
At the end of the day they'd still choose a competent candidate (PETER OBI)

Being the only christain candidate among the 4 major presidential candidates, I think Obi will get up to 75% of all the Christian votes in Nigeria, and a reasonable percentage from the non-Christian voters based on equity and justice, as well he been seen as competent and different from the rest. And these are enough for him to be sworn in as president.

Peter Obi is an idea whose time has come.

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Same religious and ethnic sentiment that made BAT go for same faith ticket in multiple religious country

If you're supporting Tinubu you can't really condemned what ever method anyone uses, both Obi and Atiku can easily justify any strategy they choose with one statement from BAT insensitive decisions.

TINUBU is the worst candidate in every aspect..

lhordspy:

This evil moronic Jihadist rest na

Peter Obi is Nigeria's next president. The entire country will be in wild jubilation when he is announced winner and it will herald the beginning of a great Nigeria.

Atiku Abubakar will happily congratulate Obi but you see that old wizard from iragbiji, he will be so frustrated and will refuse to accept the result. That's when his end will come.

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Because you ask for reason he will win …
You can’t hide the fact that all these indices will come to play

But if you ask reason he should win ?
You will get a different answer

Trollronaldo:
But if you ask me, I can place a bet that Obi will get 25% in at least
Kaduna
Nassarawa
Benue
Taraba
Plateau

I am not 100% certain about Kogi and Adamawa for the benefit of doubt

Adamawa is so sure of 25% for ObiDatti..

States like Kwara and Gombe also deliver 25% to a top Christian contender..

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Lol. Yes. Because it's the turn of a Christian president. If Buhari was a Christian, Muslims will be everywhere telling their members that it's the turn of a Muslim president.

But instead, they have the guts to present a MuMu ticket.

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Walahi talahi, urchins can be very stupid and senseless. How can someone be supporting a braindead criminal like Tinubu and still be talking about competence?

If Tinubu is half competent, will he be running away from debates and interviews?

If it's about competence, can you compare a senile rogue like Tinubu to Obi who is absolutely competent, honest, decent, hardworking and incorruptible?

Una sure say this urchin normal so?!

lazynairalander1:
I fear a rerun will happen and that will be a disadvantage to LP but nontheles. Obi is winning 3 out of that 7 states & getting needed 25% in the rest.

Above all if people are truly tired of PDAPC then Mr Peter Obi will cruise to victory.
As for Southwest forget the noise from APC camp those guys are not been called sophisticated for nothing. An average Yoruba man loves competency, integrity and good governance, these and more qualities of a good leader the can't find in tinubu.

Don't judge them by the social media buzz, even the agbadorians are aware of this.
At the end of the day they'd still choose a competent candidate (PETER OBI)

You fear a rerun between who and who, if you check the polls well Tinubu is even doing well than Atiku, if you think the rerun will be between OBi and Atiku you are mistaken. There's not gonna be any rerun. The odds against Tinubu and Atiku only. Obi is the clear winner here.

wegevv:
Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

Obi cannot get 25% outside of Lagos in the Southwest. This is necessary for the sanity of those pushing the narratives. What will make PO winner of the majority votes in the SE is what will help AA in the North and BAT in the SW.

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

That’s the annoying thing about urchins, reverse psychology, who is runing his campaign on ethnic bigotry and exclusion? APC and wondering why can’t they see it, what’s wrong with these people, they are violent and filled with hatred and intimidation and turn around to accuse others of same

mandarin:


Obi cannot get 25% outside of Lagos in the Southwest. This is necessary for the sanity of those pushing the narratives. What will make PO winner of the majority votes in the SE is what will help AA in the North and BAT in the SW.

you and I know that SW is more cosmopolitan than SE and that. Any Yorubas won't vote for Tinubu.

Trollronaldo:
I have taken my Time to study historical data from 1999 election until date to understand Peter Obi's chance in the north, I discovered that Peter Obi has a chance to secure at least 25% in these states (according to the data evidence)

1. Adamawa
2. Plateau
3. Taraba
4. Benue
5. Nasarawa
6. Kogi
7. Kaduna

Figures from elections since 1999 suggest that:.


1. These states are religious battle grounds. They do not vote like thr typical northwest and northeastern states. Religion plays a vital role in their voting pattern.

2. These states have considerable number of Christian voters who will always vote a Christian to prove a point to their Muslim neighbors.

3. These states are the only northern states in Nigeria that always deliver at least 25% to a top Christian contender in every election.

4. As northern as Taraba and Adamawa are. Buhari lost Taraba to Jonathan in 2015 and Adamawa delivered 40% to Jonathan. Most of the other PDP states in the north, Jonathan couldn't get 25%.

5. No Muslim has ever become Governor in Taraba and no Muslim has ever won Taraba state in a presidential election when a top Christian is on the ballot.

6. Other states metioned have consistently delivered 25% to a Christian candidate since they were created or since 1960.


The evidence is there for everyone to see. You can go through the historical data to confirm.

This is why Peter Obi is targeting these places in his campaign. He knows these figures, he has to allocate his scarce resources to where he thinks matters. There's no amount of investment he will do in other northern states that will make any difference for him

we want a better Nigeria and a competent leader...what these states think is there business.

mandarin:


Obi cannot get 25% outside of Lagos in the Southwest. This is necessary for the sanity of those pushing the narratives. What will make PO winner of the majority votes in the SE is what will help AA in the North and BAT in the SW.

Thank you for your contribution kind sir

But the polls show he has a good chance in Ondo, Ogun and Ekiti. That’s what I’m interested in rather than your opinion. Thanks again <3