lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

See hypocrite accusing us of ethnicity
Tinubu did countless meetings with islamic leaders
He went to Ibadan and start singing Yoruba Anthem.
His Deputy is a known Bokoharam leader.

wegevv:
Obi must love his chances of getting 25% in each of these states. He will likely win at least 2 of them (Benue and Plateau) and could even win more depending on how the other candidates split the vote in some of the other states. The problem is the odds drop when you accumulate them. Can he hit 25% in all of them at the same time?

With 17 states in the south that should be the magic number 24 and this excludes places like Gombe where he might have a long shot.

But can he also get 25% in all 6 states in the southwest too? From everything I’ve seen that looks unlikely but something I’ve learnt from 538 projection of US elections is that results rarely stand alone. If Obi performs so well that he hits 25% in all 7 of these northern states then he is likely to be over performing expectations all over the country and that could spill over to the southwest too

Will be interesting to watch. Very nice post btw. Thank you <3

Forget kogi. They vote like the northerners. It's APC ground.

If PO wins SS by 50% and SE by 70% and turn out in both region averages 50%.

Peter obi will win this election in the first ballot.

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

The reason OBI supporters are only hoping for votes from Christian enclaves is very simple and obvious; the majority of the voting population in the north has been so religiously and ethnically brainwashed over the years that it would almost amount to 'delusion' to expect any of these folks to vote a Christian candidate (and even an Igbo man) when a Muslim northerner is on the ballot. In view of this distasteful reality, if any analyst is to predict where OBI's votes would come from in the north, it's only commonsensical that they only consider the few votes that may come from the Christian enclaves and the few non-religiously brainwashed Muslim population.

If you do not see or regard the obvious ethno-religious based prejudice against OBI in the north as a problem, but rather view OBI's reliance on the few northern Christian votes as the main issue, then the joke is actually on you for failing to realise your putrid bigotry!

Obaaderemi2:
Forget kogi. They vote like the northerners. It's APC ground.

Since we are doing opinions; no where is APC ground. They gave us the worst federal government in the history of our great country. They will be rejected.

However the scientific polls show that all 3 parties will stand a good chance for 25% there.

Thanks though <3

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Election prediction is about demographics.

If you don't like it you can keep wailing. We are here for you. Babysitting wailers is a personal hobby of mine <3

lhordspy:
This is the problem I have with obi supporters. Just ask them to give you reasons why they think Obi will win. The next thing you are bound to see or hear is:

Yoruba Christians , Northern christian , Igbo voters .

It reeks of sentiment, partitioning, and divisiveness ; not competence, not nationalism. It further justify the reason why people are opposing the supposedly 'movement'. A political campaign/strategy driven only on religous hate and ethnic sentiment.

Obi like his IPOB brothers have bought hate and bitterness to Nigerian politics

Trollronaldo:
I don't see any candidate getting 25% in 24 states.

This election is going to a rerun

That is what the polls say so I'm inclined to agree with you. But Obi does have a path to 24 states. More so than any other candidate. This is based on the poll numbers, others can disagree based on "structures" or whatever lol

He will need to outperform the polls by just a couple of percentage points in places like Gombe and Kwara. Unlikely but not impossible.

He should also be pushing hard to steal more PDP votes in southwest states like Osun and Oyo. The odds are not in his favour but crazier things have happened

wegevv:


Thank you for your contribution kind sir

But the polls show he has a good chance in Ondo, Ogun and Ekiti. That’s what I’m interested in rather than your opinion. Thanks again <3

Don't be interested in my opinion. If you are from those states you would know the voting population across those regions favor their home boys- simple. I said, so that in the end it doesn't look like elections were rigged, LP cannot gather 25% in the Southwest outside of Lagos. Whatever is it that will make PO deny AA and BAT 25% in the SE is what will also work for the other two candidates in their regions.

Zero

mandarin:


Don't be interested in my opinion. If you are from those states you would know the voting population across those regions favor their home boys- simple. I said, so that in the end it doesn't look like elections were rigged, LP cannot gather 25% in the Southwest outside of Lagos. Whatever is it that will make PO deny AA and BAT 25% in the SE is what will also work for the other two candidates in their regions.

The bolded part made me laugh lol. What you say or don't say won't be used by anyone to conclude if the election was rigged or not so you can relax and enjoy the rest of your day lol

Still don't care what you think. More interested in the scientific polls where professional people have gone to those same places and asked the necessary questions

Thanks though <3

wegevv:


That is what the polls say so I'm inclined to agree with you. But Obi does have a path to 24 states. More so than any other candidate. This is based on the poll numbers, others can disagree based on "structures" or whatever lol

He will need to outperform the polls by just a couple of percentage points in places like Gombe and Kwara. Unlikely but not impossible.

He should also be pushing hard to steal more PDP votes in southwest states like Osun and Oyo. The odds are not in his favour but crazier things have happened

I don't see Atiku performing well in southwest at all

you and I know that SW is more cosmopolitan than SE and that. Any Yorubas won't vote for Tinubu.you and I know that SW is more cosmopolitan than SE and that. Any Yorubas won't vote for Tinubu....