Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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You didn't factor PDP in your analysis, what should be the turnout of NW?
Since the poll says Atiku will win NE and NW and come second in SS then the poll suggests Atiku win.

Not that I believe in that Kangaroo poll anyway.

Obi and Atiku have no place in this election. Their selfishness has won the race for Tinubu

Ttalk:
E

What

For once you are realistic. The worst case will be a run off.

But there is a bigger problem I am seeing.

If Kwankwaso does not collapse his structure to BAT, BAT may not also make the spread

This guy again

This one is more realistic than all the analysis you have given. I party agree with you

Digitron:
For once you are realistic. The worst case will be a run off.

But there is a bigger problem I am seeing.

If Kwankwaso does not collapse his structure to BAT, BAT may not also make the spread

Tinubu will meet the spread in at least 16 northern states

FatherOfJesus:
This one is more realistic than all the analysis you have given. I party agree with you

How

Ttalk:
You didn't factor PDP in your analysis, what should be the turnout of NW?
Since the poll says Atiku will win NE and NW and come second in SS then the poll suggests Atiku win.

Not that I believe in that Kangaroo poll anyway.

Obi and Atiku have no place in this election. Their selfishness has won the race for Tinubu

No.it said he will win narrowly in ne nw.latest anap polls show him and Tinubu drawing there plus him taking second in the ss is bad.he needs to win one southern region

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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Garfield1.......the projector

famology:



Garfield1.......the projector

What sayest you?

Obi cannot get the majority in NC

Kwara Kogi Niger Nasarawa are part of NC

The only places in NC favorable to Obi to get about 35% is Benue FCT and Plateau

raumdeuter:
Obi cannot get the majority in NC

Kwara Kogi Niger Nasarawa are part of NC

The only places in NC favorable to Obi to get about 35% is Benue FCT and Plateau

You guys are funny.

So you think those that live in Kogi, Niger, Nassarawa and Kwara are not NIGERIANs?

The factor that made Obi popular in far away Plateau, Benue, FCT can't make all these places you mentioned know him too?

Or you think Obi gave Plateau and Benue more attention or what?

Saturday isn't far anymore.

garfield1:


Tinubu will meet the spread in at least 16 northern states

Tinibu cannot meet the spread in Plateau, Taraba, Adamawa, Jigawa, Kano,

raumdeuter:
Obi cannot get the majority in NC

Kwara Kogi Niger Nasarawa are part of NC

The only places in NC favorable to Obi to get about 35% is Benue FCT and Plateau

I've always stated this.if obi wins,it will be benue,fct and plateau narrowly but apc and PDP are very strong here.in Niger,kwara,kogi,he will perform woefully

garfield1:


I've always stated this.if obi wins,it will be benue,fct and plateau narrowly but apc and PDP are very strong here.in Niger,kwara,kogi,he will perform woefully

Garfield1 Obi will get 25% in Kogi. Can we bet on it?

ImmaculateJOE:

Tinibu cannot meet the spread in Plateau, Taraba, Adamawa, Jigawa, Kano,

You lie.even in your yesterday spread, you said tinubu will get it in taraba.this is ridiculously desperate and petty.
Tinubu will win or come close second in jigawa and kano.atiku is out of kano.tinubu will meet it in plateau,lalong.I can agree that of Adamawa but apc has what it takes to get it

Gucciblog:


Garfield1 Obi will get 25% in Kogi. Can we bet on it?

It is possible but hard.

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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💩💩💩

This is complete nonsense and doesn't even deserve a response but 80% of 6 million is nearly 5 million not 4 million lol.

Secondly, there isn't a single legit poll that is predicting Tinubu to get more than 5X the number of votes of Obi in NW & NE. Check Anap

Doesn't even matter because this whole post is propaganda paid for by APC and Tinubu. Unfortunately they hired a mathematically challenged propagandist lol

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

Gucciblog:


Garfield1 Obi will get 25% in Kogi. Can we bet on it?

Are u sure u know what u are saying, if Obi can get 25% in Kogi it means he has won the election

daygee12:


Are u sure u know what u are saying, if Obi can get 25% in Kogi it means he has won the election

Orrr

garfield1:
💩💩💩

Dear nairalanders. I would strongly advice you to stay away from nairaland for the last few days before the election. This place is infested with paid propagandists to make you believe that APC's win is inevitable to mess with your psyche.

That is a lie. The fact that APC has given us the worst Federal Government in the history of our country is inarguable. Even the paid propagandist and sadistic APC supporters don't try to argue this fact. And it was the current APC candidate that masterminded it all.

Instead go and spend time with your family and friends. Walk down your street and engage a stranger. Call your relatives in the village. You will find that most Nigerians have completely rejected APC and their candidate.

The truth is many of the paid propagandist posting here will also reject APC on election day. Times are hard due to this APC government so they are just hustling.

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

PS: for an honest breakdown of what the polls say, check my post here https://www.nairaland.com/7569924/obi-tinubu-atiku-path-spread. Obi is the one candidate that has a viable path to the spread ❤️

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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Where exactly is Atiku in all these your analyses?

Funny how most of you BATISTS still havent woken up to smell the coffee - The north is supporting their own; Atiku will likely sweep most of the northern votes even from APC strongholds. Even Buhari himself might be voting Atiku on Saturday. The entire Naira swap policy stinks like a strategy of the northern cabal to deprive Tinubu of votes, to the advantage of Atiku...

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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Seunmsg
Kyase
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Your projection is largely banking on low voters turnout. Even historical data do not support it.

In 2015, about 3 Million people voted in the South East, and PDP had 2.45M votes. Notice I didn't include 2019 election data because of the low enthusiasm of voters. 1.44 million people newly registered for this election in the South East. All things being equal, we could have at least 5million people vote on Saturday in the Southeast. If Obi gets 80% as predicted, that's 4 million votes from the South East.

Again in 2015, about 5.55 million people voted in the South South, while 2.48 million people newly registered to vote in this election. With high turnout of voters we could have at least 7 million people vote on Saturday in the South South. If Obi wins 50% like you predicted, the he nets 3.5million votes here.

In the South West (Lagos not included), about 2.8 million people cast their votes in 2015. About 1.4 million people newly registered to vote in this election (again Lagos not included). So we could project that 3.5 million people will cast their vote in a high turnout situation. If Asiwaju wins by 60% of votes cast. He'll have about 2 million votes.

Gucciblog:


Garfield1 Obi will get 25% in Kogi. Can we bet on it?

don't bet on it bro. I am fully behind Obi but as far as NC is concerned this person below is spot on. Benue, FCT, Jos are the sure states

raumdeuter:
Obi cannot get the majority in NC

Kwara Kogi Niger Nasarawa are part of NC

The only places in NC favorable to Obi to get about 35% is Benue FCT and Plateau

Treadway:
don't bet on it bro. I am fully behind Obi but as far as NC is concerned this person below is spot on. Benue, FCT, Jos are the sure states

Obi will only get votes in igala axis

Another nonsense from this useless thiefnubuu ask licker,just dey play with obi fans head

Bookmark this; Obi cannot make the majority vote.

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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💩💩💩

Let's breakdown this horseshit some more. Just for the fun of it lol:

- Not a single poll OP mentioned gave Tinubu 60% overall in the SW even if you remove the undecided and undisclosed. OP is mathematically challenged lol

- Not a single poll OP mentioned gave Tinubu 5x the votes of Obi in NE & NW. OP is mathematically challenged lol

- Not a single poll OP mentioned had Tinubu sharing NC 50:50 with Obi. OP is mathematically challenged lol

Vote Obi, or literally anyone else but APC ❤️

PS: Digitron & FatherOfJesus don't fall for made-up propaganda

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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I think your analysis is faulty amongst other thing you based your analysis on the assumption that LP will get zero votes from NE, how is that even possible?

In as much as SE are leaning heavily on LP, APC will get some vote there let alone LP with a Muslim vice and number of none NE and Christian living in NE you still think that LP will not get at least 1 vote there?

garfield1:
Most opinion polls predict an obi victory.the most prominent and reliable are anap/noi and Bantu... Both predicted obi to win se by 80%,ss by 50%,a narrow win or sharing nc with tinubu and a narrow victory for atiku in ne/nw and a 60% win for tinubu in sw....

But if we look at it statistically,it is a tinubu win.ss and se voters turnout is 6 million.average turnout in ne/ ne is 13.5 million.if assuming obi has 4 mil out of 6 million votes in se ss and Tinubu scores 5.5 million out of 13.5 mil in ne nw,he leads obi by 1.5 million.let's assume obi wins nc by 500k,tinubu's lead is down to a million.let us assume obi scores 1 mil in ne nw,they are equal.it will be down to the sw where tinubu will obviously win by at least 2 mil vote margin.
In a worst case scenario,obi might have the highest votes and surely fail to get the spread.tinubu will get the spread and second highest votes and will go into a runoff with obi where he will obviously win as the north will vote tinubu even if kwankwaso and atiku endorse obi.



Mynd44
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When did NOI or Bantupage or any of the scientific poll give Tinubu 60%.

It is a lie and you know it.

None of them gave Tinubu more than 10 % point on the average from Obi.

I just wanted to point that out

dettolgel:


I think your analysis is faulty amongst other thing you based your analysis on the assumption that LP will get zero votes from NE, how is that even possible?

In as much as SE are leaning heavily on LP, APC will get some vote there let alone LP with a Muslim vice and number of none NE and Christian living in NE you still think that LP will not get at least 1 vote there?

How can I say obi won't get votes in ne? I stated it that he will get 1 mil in ne and nw while tinubu and atiku will get 500k in se